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Old 03-09-2018, 05:35 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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February jobs report

The February jobs report was very good, showing the economy added 313,000 jobs. This is the sort of news that I'm sure is met with delight in the White House (and I suspect with dismay by more than a few Dopers). Trump seems to be having a very good start to his second year:

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The 313,000 jobs that the nation added in February are far more than are needed to keep up with population growth and continue a surprising burst of job creation to start the year. In the first two months of 2018, the economy has added an average of 276,000 jobs a month, a big step up from 182,000 on average in 2017.
  #2  
Old 03-09-2018, 05:39 PM
Procrustus Procrustus is online now
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I'm glad the economy is doing okay.

Trump, however, remains an incompetent and ignorant embarrassment. He could preside over 4 years of peace and prosperity and appoint me to the Supreme Court, and I would still want him run out of town on a rail.
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Old 03-09-2018, 05:48 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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I'm glad the economy is doing okay.

Trump, however, remains an incompetent and ignorant embarrassment. He could preside over 4 years of peace and prosperity and appoint me to the Supreme Court, and I would still want him run out of town on a rail.
LOL!

I appreciate the honesty.
  #4  
Old 03-09-2018, 05:53 PM
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Imagine if Trump had to turn around a ruined economy like Obama had to, instead of walking into one that was humming along.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:18 PM
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Yes, these are the best numbers since the tail end of the Obama administration (July 2016). I'm glad the recovery begun under the previous administration is continuing, and I'm pleased when more people have jobs. Why on earth would that cause anyone "dismay"?

I'm not sure how much Trump himself has to do with it. And Trump is thoroughly unfit for the presidency and completely reprehensible for myriad reasons. Two months of good job numbers don't change that. I try to look past one or two narrow, notoriously mercurial economic numbers when I evaluate a President's performance.

Last edited by Defensive Indifference; 03-09-2018 at 06:19 PM.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:22 PM
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Two months doesn’t really prove anything. Sometimes a couple of strong months are followed by a really really bad month.
And despite the bloviating hype, 2016 was a WAY better year for job creation that 2017.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b003133ec7d809

Also, he’s pulling a long con. That strategy involves letting the mark win big at first.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 03-09-2018 at 06:23 PM.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:25 PM
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One of the things I hated during the Obama administration was, with the release of any good jobs report, was Jack Welch and all the CNBC clowns changing the narrative immediately. Either they were floating conspiracy theories about fake numbers or else they started moving the goal posts and whining about U-6.

I hate Donald Trump and the Republican Party. However, today's job report was good and the numbers are correct, although they are subject to monthly revisions for the next two months as all unemployment reports are. The unemployment rate is basically at the natural rate of unemployment. The one annoying aspect, as was true under Obama, is that wage growth remains stubbornly slow. This low rate of wage growth is maddening. A very low unemployment rate for this long should have started to lead to wage-push inflation which hasn't happened yet.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:26 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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If I'm reading this table correctly, February was the 7th best month out of the previous 122 (looking back through Jan 2008).

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 03-09-2018 at 06:30 PM.
  #9  
Old 03-09-2018, 06:28 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Originally Posted by Ann Hedonia View Post
Two months doesnít really prove anything. Sometimes a couple of strong months are followed by a really really bad month.
And despite the bloviating hype, 2016 was a WAY better year for job creation that 2017.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b003133ec7d809

Also, heís pulling a long con. That strategy involves letting the mark win big at first.
HuffPo described 2017 as "down slightly" from 2016, but you said "2016 was a WAY better year for job creation that 2017". Those two statements seem incongruous.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
HuffPo described 2017 as "down slightly" from 2016, but you said "2016 was a WAY better year for job creation that 2017". Those two statements seem incongruous.
Sorry, I was just honing my trumpification skills.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
HuffPo described 2017 as "down slightly" from 2016, but you said "2016 was a WAY better year for job creation that 2017". Those two statements seem incongruous.
BLS

2016-2,344,000
2017-2,186,000
Down 6.7%

Eliminating both Januarys
2016-2,241,000
2017-1,927,000
Down 14%
  #12  
Old 03-09-2018, 07:25 PM
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The one annoying aspect, as was true under Obama, is that wage growth remains stubbornly slow. This low rate of wage growth is maddening. A very low unemployment rate for this long should have started to lead to wage-push inflation which hasn't happened yet.
I've come up with a theory that might be complete bullshit, but makes a bit of sense to me.

People talk about how long it's been since there's been real wage growth. I vaguely recall it being some time in the 70s or perhaps early. What I do know, however, is that there was much higher inflation in those days, including up through the early 80s, until the Fed decided it was going to put the kibosh in inflation by raising interest rates however much it took. Now, whenever it looks like the economy is at full employment and wages are going to be pressed higher as there's not enough people out there to fill the vacancies, interest rates are hiked to put the break on the economy so as to not cause inflation.

Thus, it is the Federal Reserve who are to blame for the lack of real wage growth. They never let the economy enter a state where wages start rising quickly, because that causes inflation. Yes, I know we're talking about real wage growth and not just nominal, but wages presumably will outpace the rate of inflation when they are the main driver of it, as there are plenty of other costs in the market besides wages.

But that's just my theory.
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Old 03-09-2018, 07:32 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I suspect with dismay by more than a few Dopers
You really are completely clueless about what people think outside of your conservative bubble, aren't you?

Non-conservatives, even liberals, love America just as much as conservatives do. Our opposition to Trump isn't based on some childish whim. It's based on our belief, supported by ongoing evidence, that he is harming America. We oppose Trump because we love America.

Last edited by Little Nemo; 03-09-2018 at 07:32 PM.
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Old 03-09-2018, 07:41 PM
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One of the things I hated during the Obama administration was, with the release of any good jobs report, was Jack Welch and all the CNBC clowns changing the narrative immediately. Either they were floating conspiracy theories about fake numbers or else they started moving the goal posts and whining about U-6.

I hate Donald Trump and the Republican Party. However, today's job report was good and the numbers are correct, although they are subject to monthly revisions for the next two months as all unemployment reports are. The unemployment rate is basically at the natural rate of unemployment. The one annoying aspect, as was true under Obama, is that wage growth remains stubbornly slow. This low rate of wage growth is maddening. A very low unemployment rate for this long should have started to lead to wage-push inflation which hasn't happened yet.
In a world where labor can be in China or ďundocumentedĒ and underpaid, you have to consider global labor capacity when thinking about domestic labor inflation.
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Old 03-09-2018, 07:49 PM
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You really are completely clueless about what people think outside of your conservative bubble, aren't you?

Non-conservatives, even liberals, love America just as much as conservatives do. Our opposition to Trump isn't based on some childish whim. It's based on our belief, supported by ongoing evidence, that he is harming America. We oppose Trump because we love America.
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Old 03-09-2018, 07:54 PM
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You really are completely clueless about what people think outside of your conservative bubble, aren't you?

Non-conservatives, even liberals, love America just as much as conservatives do. Our opposition to Trump isn't based on some childish whim. It's based on our belief, supported by ongoing evidence, that he is harming America. We oppose Trump because we love America.
QFT
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:20 PM
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So what's the message here? It's OK that we're living through the most blatantly corrupt administration in history because 300K jobs were created two months ago (which, btw, Trump can't realistically claim as his own anyway, not that that ever mattered to him)?
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:42 PM
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The OPs implied message is that Trump has good economic policies. Itís fun to see someone assert that, given that Trumpís top economic adviser just quit because of Trumpís economic policies.
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:55 PM
Chisquirrel Chisquirrel is online now
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
(and I suspect with dismay by more than a few Dopers).
Do you truly believe that some Dopers view positive news for the US as a negative? They'd rather hundreds of thousands of people go hungry/lose possessions/lose their house only because DONALD FUCKING TRUMP is such a shithead?

is all too true.
  #20  
Old 03-09-2018, 10:30 PM
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So what's the message here? It's OK that we're living through the most blatantly corrupt administration in history because 300K jobs were created two months ago (which, btw, Trump can't realistically claim as his own anyway, not that that ever mattered to him)?
Trump started claiming the jobs growth numbers as a product of his leadership within weeks of his inauguration, when he had even less possible influence on it (and the same numbers which, when he was a candidate, he claimed were tremendously under-reported).

I think that Trump is an asshole, a supremely unqualified president, and very likely incredibly corrupt. There are few things I'd like more than for him to leave office this very day. That said...I'm happy that our economy hasn't been driven into a ditch yet, and that people are finding jobs.

Last edited by kenobi 65; 03-09-2018 at 10:32 PM.
  #21  
Old 03-09-2018, 10:35 PM
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Iím completely flummoxed by the rolleyes.

Anyhow, good news indeed for the economy. Letís hope it stays good.
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Old 03-09-2018, 10:37 PM
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You really are completely clueless about what people think outside of your conservative bubble, aren't you?

Non-conservatives, even liberals, love America just as much as conservatives do. Our opposition to Trump isn't based on some childish whim. It's based on our belief, supported by ongoing evidence, that he is harming America. We oppose Trump because we love America.
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What does your emoji mean here? Are you standing by your belief that liberals hate America and you're skeptical of my claim to the contrary?
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Old 03-09-2018, 10:55 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Iím completely flummoxed by the rolleyes.

Anyhow, good news indeed for the economy. Letís hope it stays good.

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Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
What does your emoji mean here? Are you standing by your belief that liberals hate America and you're skeptical of my claim to the contrary?
The eyeroll was directed at "your conservative bubble". It strikes me as a particularly stupid charge to level against anyone who regularly posts on the SDMB.
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Old 03-09-2018, 11:27 PM
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The eyeroll was directed at "your conservative bubble". It strikes me as a particularly stupid charge to level against anyone who regularly posts on the SDMB.
Your post is my cite. If you were listening to what other people here were saying, you wouldn't have cause to write things like "I suspect with dismay by more than a few Dopers".

But you wrote that. So it appears you just come here to repeat things you heard on right wing sites and don't bother paying attention to what anyone else says. And that means I'm standing by "your conservative bubble" until you show some signs it isn't accurate.
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Old 03-10-2018, 12:19 AM
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Imagine if Trump had to turn around a ruined economy like Obama had to, instead of walking into one that was humming along.
Yup. Trump gets to take credit for 8 years of competent stewardship. I remember the GOP were talking about how horrible the economy was for 8 years. It was about 4.7% when Obama left office and now after a year it is 4.1% and that is amazing (to them).

No mention of the fact that it went from a high of 10.0% down to 4.7% in 7 years of Obama.
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Old 03-10-2018, 01:04 AM
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(and I suspect with dismay by more than a few Dopers). :
Really, ditka? You think we're party before people?
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Old 03-10-2018, 07:16 AM
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So what's the message here? It's OK that we're living through the most blatantly corrupt administration in history because 300K jobs were created two months ago (which, btw, Trump can't realistically claim as his own anyway, not that that ever mattered to him)?
That's the message I get from, not just the OP, but pretty much all conservatives I know. That it's ok to dismiss all of Trump's faults as a president and as a human being simply because he has a number of policies that align with the right. Or that any criticism of Trump is "fake news" or "Liberal media bias".
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Old 03-10-2018, 07:16 AM
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Really, ditka? You think we're party before people?
Pioneers venturing out from a milieu where "liberalism is a mental disorder" is chanted like a mantra may be perplexed to find that only a small percentage of us are writhing in drool-stained straitjackets or molding graven images of George Soros from our own defecatory clay.
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Old 03-10-2018, 07:52 AM
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I have serious concerns about the Republican plan to use borrowed money to fuel growth, especially when the economy is doing well already.

Borrowing money isn’t always bad.....if you lose your job and your car breaks down it’s short-sighted to take a hard line about not borrowing money to fix the car...because if you don’t you can’t get another job and you can’t pay your rent and you lose your housing and your life spirals down the toilet.......... sometimes borrowing money is a good thing. And we would’ve had a much better and faster recovery in 2008 if not for the Republican “debt ALWAYS bad” drumbeat.

But when things are going well and you decide you like being prosperous and impressing your neighbors so much that you max out your credit cards to buy expensive sports cars and take out a teaser rate mortgage to buy a mansion, that is an irresponsible use of debt ...... guess what, you’re not really better off then you were before you made those credit decisions. Your neighbors might think you’re better off, and you might feel richer, but you’re actually worse off.

New Yorkers have been watching Trump pull off sleazy “ barely legal” business deals for decades and we always thought it was a big giant hoot the way the rubes in the heartland bought into his hype and actually thought he was a legitimate businessman. Now our big inside joke isn’t funny anymore and we keep trying to warn you guys, but you won’t listen.

You’re the mark in a long game,sweetheart. You need to take off the red tinted glasses and wise up.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 03-10-2018 at 07:56 AM.
  #30  
Old 03-10-2018, 08:18 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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I have serious concerns about the Republican plan to use borrowed money to fuel growth, especially when the economy is doing well already.

Borrowing money isnít always bad.....if you lose your job and your car breaks down itís short-sighted to take a hard line about not borrowing money to fix the car...because if you donít you canít get another job and you canít pay your rent and you lose your housing and your life spirals down the toilet.......... sometimes borrowing money is a good thing. And we wouldíve had a much better and faster recovery in 2008 if not for the Republican ďdebt ALWAYS badĒ drumbeat.

But when things are going well and you decide you like being prosperous and impressing your neighbors so much that you max out your credit cards to buy expensive sports cars and take out a teaser rate mortgage to buy a mansion, that is an irresponsible use of debt ...... guess what, youíre not really better off then you were before you made those credit decisions. Your neighbors might think youíre better off, and you might feel richer, but youíre actually worse off.

New Yorkers have been watching Trump pull off sleazy ď barely legalĒ business deals for decades and we always thought it was a big giant hoot the way the rubes in the heartland bought into his hype and actually thought he was a legitimate businessman. Now our big inside joke isnít funny anymore and we keep trying to warn you guys, but you wonít listen.

Youíre the mark in a long game,sweetheart. You need to take off the red tinted glasses and wise up.
LOL! SALT deductions are capped at $10k and NYers think I'm the mark. That elicits another eyeroll.

Look, I'm not happy about the debt level. I wasn't happy about it under Bush or Obama, and I suspect Trump will not end up being any better, but going from $30T to $31.5T ... It's hard for me to get very animated about that relatively minor increase in exchange for a tax cut.
  #31  
Old 03-10-2018, 08:24 AM
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LOL! SALT deductions are capped at $10k and NYers think I'm the mark. That elicits another eyeroll.

Look, I'm not happy about the debt level. I wasn't happy about it under Bush or Obama, and I suspect Trump will not end up being any better, but going from $30T to $31.5T ... It's hard for me to get very animated about that relatively minor increase in exchange for a tax cut.
The national debt is 20 trillion.
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Old 03-10-2018, 08:37 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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The national debt is 20 trillion.
I know, and it was estimated to rise to $30T over the next 10 years, and now, because of the tax cut, it's estimated to rise to $31.5T.
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Old 03-10-2018, 08:46 AM
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Really, ditka? You think we're party before people?
Projection. After 8 years of doing everything they can to prevent Obama from doing anything that might help America for fear he would get credit for it, they expect us to do likewise.
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Old 03-10-2018, 09:01 AM
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Yep, the Obama economy is still chugging along. In about two years we can assess the impact of the Trump tax cuts and budgets. I don't watch TV news, but if any of the idiot talking heads is crediting Trump for any of it, they're either a moron or a goddamn liar.
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Old 03-10-2018, 09:03 AM
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I agree this is good news for a month, but also agree with HD that there will be people who immediately look for ways to undermine its importance because it happened on Trump's watch. But I don't think any of those folks would ever want it reversed or to disappear. (or very few of them, maybe those waiting for some kind of overthrow/revolution)

On the topic of real wages, they've been on a rebound for a couple of years, and at the current unemployment rate should (you would hope) climb.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q#0
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Old 03-10-2018, 09:18 AM
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(and I suspect with dismay by more than a few Dopers)
You need to stand behind this statement or retract it. Pretending that you didn't say it is chickenshit.
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Old 03-10-2018, 10:00 AM
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I know, and it was estimated to rise to $30T over the next 10 years, and now, because of the tax cut, it's estimated to rise to $31.5T.
Yeah, a trillion here and a trillion there, pretty soon you're talking about real money.

Remarkable ,really how Obama gets raked over the coals for cleaning up Bush's mess yet it's all hunky dory to saddle the future for tax cuts today.
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:01 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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You need to stand behind this statement or retract it. Pretending that you didn't say it is chickenshit.
In which post do you think I was "pretending [I] didn't say it"?
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:02 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Yeah, a trillion here and a trillion there, pretty soon you're talking about real money.

Remarkable ,really how Obama gets raked over the coals for cleaning up Bush's mess yet it's all hunky dory to saddle the future for tax cuts today.
As I've said before, that aspect of the tax cuts (the addition to the debt) is the one that I'm least comfortable with. It's a mostly silver cloud with a bit of black lining, in my eyes.
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:07 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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... Non-conservatives, even liberals, love America just as much as conservatives do. ...
BTW, this is false (at least according to a 2015 YouGov poll):

Quote:
Broken down along ideological lines, liberals (13%) are more likely than either moderates (5%) or conservatives (4%) to say that they do not love America. 90% of conservatives say that they love America, compared to 85% of moderates and 82% of liberals.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 03-10-2018 at 11:08 AM.
  #41  
Old 03-10-2018, 11:16 AM
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As I've said before, that aspect of the tax cuts (the addition to the debt) is the one that I'm least comfortable with. It's a mostly silver cloud with a bit of black lining, in my eyes.
More like a black cloud with a thin sliver streak down one side.
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:25 AM
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In which post do you think I was "pretending [I] didn't say it"?
In every post in which you didn't back it up or retract it.
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:38 AM
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Imagine if Trump had to turn around a ruined economy like Obama had to, instead of walking into one that was humming along.
Yes, people really don't appreciate the challenge that Obama faced.
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:54 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Yes, people really don't appreciate the challenge that Obama faced.
I do, or at least I try to. For example, comparing Trump's second February to Obama's would be unfair to Obama. Different times, different circumstances.
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Old 03-10-2018, 12:16 PM
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LOL! SALT deductions are capped at $10k and NYers think I'm the mark. That elicits another eyeroll.
Yeahrite. Because so many NYers voted for Trump (aside from every Republican mark in sight). Give me a break.

Quote:
Look, I'm not happy about the debt level. I wasn't happy about it under Bush or Obama, and I suspect Trump will not end up being any better, but going from $30T to $31.5T ... It's hard for me to get very animated about that relatively minor increase in exchange for a tax cut.
Sorry, you can't paint $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS as minor in any way. But as long as your bottom line got marginally better, it doesn't matter that you're mortgaging the future even more, huh? Party of fiscal responsibility my ass.
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Old 03-10-2018, 12:22 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Originally Posted by Johnny Ace View Post
Yeahrite. Because so many NYers voted for Trump (aside from every Republican mark in sight). Give me a break.
36.8% of NY voters chose Trump. That's 2.8 million voters. If you had a point here, I've missed it.

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Originally Posted by Johnny Ace View Post
Sorry, you can't paint $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS as minor in any way. But as long as your bottom line got marginally better, it doesn't matter that you're mortgaging the future even more, huh? Party of fiscal responsibility my ass.
I have not said it "doesn't matter". I think the 5% increase in the national debt over a 10-year-period is the most lamentable part of a mostly-good bill.
  #47  
Old 03-10-2018, 12:31 PM
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GIGObuster GIGObuster is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
36.8% of NY voters chose Trump. That's 2.8 million voters. If you had a point here, I've missed it.
Interesting that that percentage is the about the same as the lowest approval ratings that Trump has reached several times already.
  #48  
Old 03-10-2018, 01:44 PM
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Ann Hedonia Ann Hedonia is offline
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Interesting that that percentage is the about the same as the lowest approval ratings that Trump has reached several times already.
But that’s New York State. In New York City it was 79% Clinton, 19% Trump, even with Staten Island skewing the numbers. In Manhattan, where Trumps “businesses” are based, he got 10%. Familiarity breeds contempt where Trump is concerned. He was considered a slightly larcenous glad-hander at best, and many of his friends turned enemies thought he was “in on the joke”. That’s from his former friend Joe Scarborough. And the “joke” that he used to be in on was the fiction that he was a legitimate businessman.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 03-10-2018 at 01:45 PM.
  #49  
Old 03-10-2018, 02:58 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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Cheering America's failure because it makes your political opponents look bad is really more of a conservative thing.

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  #50  
Old 03-10-2018, 04:51 PM
Chisquirrel Chisquirrel is online now
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Originally Posted by Lance Turbo View Post
Cheering America's failure because it makes your political opponents look bad is really more of a conservative thing.

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To be fair, that's not what HurricaneDitka is trying to say. He's saying "certain" (most-likely) liberals would be upset that the jobs report was good.


Since that view is worth about as much as a Zimbabwean billionaire, it's pretty easy to note that his other views on libruls are probably just as fantastically distorted - though anyone that didn't know it before wasn't paying attention.
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