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Old 04-20-2018, 06:09 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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North Korea suspending missile testing and closing nuclear site; Trump the statesman?

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced Friday that his country will be suspending missile testing and closing a nuclear test site, several reports said.

"From April 21, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the Korean Central News Agency said, according to Yonhap News. "The North will shut down a nuclear test site in the country's northern side to prove the vow to suspend nuclear test."
source

I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 04-20-2018 at 06:11 PM.
  #2  
Old 04-20-2018, 06:18 PM
Moriarty Moriarty is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka
Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
It is good news, if it actually takes hold. But we've tried it before:

Carter and North Korea: the 1994 Treaty Halting North Korea’s Development of Nuclear Weapons
  #3  
Old 04-20-2018, 06:19 PM
simster simster is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
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I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
Not even close - all they are saying is 'now that we have proven our nuclear and ICMB capabilites, we no loinger need to "test them".

Quote:
Originally Posted by https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/20/asia/north-korea-closes-nuclear-site/index.html
Kim said Saturday that "under the proven condition of complete nuclear weapons, we no longer need any nuclear tests, mid-range and intercontinental ballistic rocket tests, and that the nuclear test site in northern area has also completed its mission," as quoted by KCNA.
While a step - its nowhere close to allowing inspectors in or dropping the nuclear ambitions on whole - just saying "we dont need to test".
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:23 PM
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If Kim thinks he can get more political mileage from starting missile testing, he will start it. If he thinks he will get more from stopping it, he will stop it. Trump may be only a pawn in the game of life.
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:24 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Not even close ...
I understand that it's not complete denuclearization, or even all that close yet, but was your "not even close" directed at my understanding that "This appears... to be the most significant progress"? Is there some other happening that you'd point to as being more significant progress than this?
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:30 PM
Smapti Smapti is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front.
What exactly do you think Trump did that caused this?
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:35 PM
Stranger On A Train Stranger On A Train is offline
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This has everything to do with China providing economic subsidies to North Korea in exchange for the Kim regime cooling their heels on their nuclear ICBM program, and nothing to do with Trump’s ham-fisted “statesmanship” or Twitter war with Jong-un worthy of a couple of teenage rap star ‘frenemies’. Given the bumbling of the Trump Administration in nearly every interaction with both allies and adversaries, ascribing any positive outcome to Trump is like observing that the clock has to be at 12 at some time twice in a day.

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Old 04-20-2018, 06:36 PM
Icarus Icarus is offline
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They have achieved their goals, which is "a seat at the table". So, in a sense, we are playing into their hands, if that is your perspective. If news reports are accurate, Trump plans on meeting with Kim Jong-un, which in the old view of these type of things, elevates him on the world stage.

What ever happened to "we don't negotiate with terrorists"?
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:39 PM
ganthet ganthet is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
Just last month, Trump's carefully selected national security advisor John Bolton stated that North Korea can never be trusted, is on the verge of successfully miniaturizing its nuclear warheads while simultaneously working out the final issues with its proto-ICBMs, and is using the prospect of direct talks with the South Korea president and Trump as smoke-and-mirror stalling tactics to give the regime more time to finish its weapons development.

Back in September 2017, Bolton said:

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Bolton
Anybody who thinks more diplomacy with North Korea, more sanctions, whether against North Korea, or an effort to apply sanctions against China, is just giving North Korea more time to increase its nuclear arsenal... and put us, South Korea, and Japan in more jeopardy.

We have fooled around with North Korea for 25 years, and fooling around some more is just going to make matters worse.
The North Korean regime craves international respect and acceptance. Trump is giving up a major carrot by agreeing to meet with Kim with no preconditions and the steady drip of stories about NK agreeing to take their demand that American troops leave South Korea in any kind of deal and now this is setting NK up to appear "reasonable" and "peace-interested" when talks inevitably fail. Trump is too ignorant and self-obsessed to be much of a good negotiator and since the primary and only real goal of NK is regime preservation, giving up nukes is never realistic since it not only leaves them vulnerable militarily but removes the domestic justification for NK's repressiveness, poverty, and the need for juche as compared to South Korea.
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Old 04-20-2018, 06:46 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Originally Posted by Icarus View Post
... What ever happened to "we don't negotiate with terrorists"?
That's always been something other than an ironclad rule. North Korea was added the the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism in 1988. Despite that, Jimmy Carter led an effort to reach an agreement with the North Koreans during the Clinton administration. GWB actually removed North Korea from the list in 2008, in an effort to assist ongoing negotiations with the regime. Trump had them added back to the list last year.
  #11  
Old 04-20-2018, 06:57 PM
Troy McClure Troy McClure is offline
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What are the odds that the test site they are so magnanimously closing is this one?

http://time.com/4981037/north-korea-...ear-test-site/
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Old 04-20-2018, 07:13 PM
DSeid DSeid is online now
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
...This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. ...
This appears to be a fairly accurate statement - it is tied. There has been no progress made towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula in the last couple of decades and this is also no progress.

But I'll take engaging in talks and empty gestures that are acknowledged with empty words over mutual threats and twitter rants over who has the larger ... button.
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Old 04-20-2018, 07:23 PM
DinoR DinoR is online now
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
This is nowhere close to the most significant progress.

One they lie. They've previously abandoned pursuit of nuclear weapons in international agreements. If true those statements would have been far more significant progression. They, obviously, didn't follow through. One of the old saws of disarmament is "Trust but verify." Previous behavior makes trust problematic. There's no announcement about them allowing verification procedures.

This only abandons a tiny chunk of their nuclear enterprise. They said nothing about continuing to build and deploy nuclear weapons based on the lessons learned from the recent period of heavy testing. They also didn't abandon continued research and development to support their nuclear enterprise. They only claim to be abandoning ballistic missile launches and live nuclear warhead tests along with one test site. That's it.

They share/sell ballistic technology with other countries. One of those is Iran. Iran's been conducting ballistic missile tests recently. Sharing technology with Iran that then gets test launched is one way to still get live fire test results at this point.

This looks a lot like a press release designed to influence international public opinion before upcoming negotiations.
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Old 04-20-2018, 07:27 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Originally Posted by DinoR View Post
This is nowhere close to the most significant progress. ...
So what was "the most significant progress"?
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Old 04-20-2018, 07:52 PM
simster simster is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I understand that it's not complete denuclearization, or even all that close yet, but was your "not even close" directed at my understanding that "This appears... to be the most significant progress"? Is there some other happening that you'd point to as being more significant progress than this?
If you read the rest of the sentence - you'd be able to understand why its 'not even close'.

This is nothing more than saying "we've proven we have them, we're satisfied with our ability to make and launch as we see fit, we don't need to test them". Closing a test facility on that basis is actually more of a bold statement of "and now we'll just use them".

It sounds good on the surface - but underneath, its really more of a threat.

When was the last time US actively tested nuclear weapons ? 1992 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States - would saying we're closing our testing facilities have shit to do with our abiltiy to produce and use the weapons?

Last edited by simster; 04-20-2018 at 07:53 PM.
  #16  
Old 04-20-2018, 08:01 PM
asahi asahi is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
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I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
I'm not entirely pissing on Trump's diplomacy, as I am one of the few progressives who will acknowledge that Hillary Clinton's status quo diplomacy would have been unfruitful (putting it mildly). But let's just wait until we get past the actual meeting itself before we start praising his accomplishments.
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Old 04-20-2018, 08:17 PM
DinoR DinoR is online now
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
So what was "the most significant progress"?
They've entered multiparty agreements to completely abandon their program before. They didn't actually do it. Spending some time at least trying to give the appearance of not developing nukes had a more practical effect than a limited claim about restricting testing.

Last edited by DinoR; 04-20-2018 at 08:18 PM.
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Old 04-21-2018, 06:30 AM
asahi asahi is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
Going back to this post, I'd just like to point out that it's the most significant progress toward denuclearization -- after they have actually finished the process of demonstrating substantial nuclear capabilities.

I suspect that what Kim is saying is:

"Look, the fact is, we've got missiles, and we've got nuclear weapons. I know that, and more importantly, you know that. We could make more and more if we want and you would pay one hell of a price for trying to stop us. But the truth is, we're not really interested in going that route. This being enemies of the world shit is getting kinda old. Instead, we'd rather you just stop putting sanctions on us, as they threaten my ability to govern over the long term. We want you to stop threatening our regime's future through sanctions and political isolation; you guys want us to stop building nukes and shooting missiles over Japan. So we'll cut you a deal. You end sanctions and maybe even move your military threat further away from us, and we'll end nuclear and missile testing, and we might even be somewhat normal. I'll look like a hero for normalizing my country and perhaps even possibly improving the economy and welfare of my people, and you'll actually look like a legitimate global deal maker and possibly get reelected. So whaddya say, Orange Yankee, deal or no deal?

Trump might actually be tempted to take it. I'm not sure John Bolton would, though. This is where it would get interesting because Bolton represents a significant faction within the old "deep state," which is that the United States doesn't compromise power in exchange for peace. FWIW, I think Hillary Clinton somewhat had a worldview that was not too dissimilar. She's probably more open to traditional diplomacy than the Walrus (Bolton), but that traditional diplomacy would mean North Korea making concessions first before actually holding up our end of the bargain. Kim's not interested in that. His grandfather/father tried that with Bill Clinton and he got nowhere when Republicans pulled funding for the nuclear deal in the 1990s.

Last edited by asahi; 04-21-2018 at 06:34 AM.
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Old 04-21-2018, 06:41 AM
Blank Slate Blank Slate is offline
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Last year, interstellar object 'Oumuamua was observed passing through our solar system. How about that Trump as leader of the free world, eh?
  #20  
Old 04-21-2018, 06:49 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
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I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
"in the last couple of decades"??

Dude, no progress could have been made on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula two decades ago, because it was still denuclearized, thanks to the Clinton-era Agreed Framework. Which Republicans opposed from the get-go because it was 'appeasement.' And our new National Security Adviser had a hand in killing it during the Bush years. And so by the middle of the '00s, NK was finally a nuclear power.

Any progress made by Republicans to address the problem of NK's nukes is at best an attempt to undo the damage they did in enabling those nukes in the first place. I wish them well, but they don't deserve our plaudits.
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Old 04-21-2018, 06:58 AM
penultima thule penultima thule is offline
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Originally Posted by Troy McClure View Post
What are the odds that the test site they are so magnanimously closing is this one?

http://time.com/4981037/north-korea-...ear-test-site/
Absolutely 100%

North Korea haven't run a nuclear test or launched ICBMs for several months.
Now unilateralists seem to be awarding them brownie points for saying they'll do what they have already done.

Why they stopped? Dunno. Maybe they think they don't need further tests or they are running short of resources. They are certainly down one launch site.
Whether/when they plan to resume is outside my ken but not getting what they want (which is the disarming of South Korea before they consider any disarmament of North Korea) in any upcoming talks is pretty likely trigger point.
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:06 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Originally Posted by Icarus View Post
They have achieved their goals, which is "a seat at the table". So, in a sense, we are playing into their hands, if that is your perspective. If news reports are accurate, Trump plans on meeting with Kim Jong-un, which in the old view of these type of things, elevates him on the world stage.
And Rush Limbaugh is selling this as a yuuuuge accomplishment on the part of Trump, that none of his predecessors were able to pull off.

Hard to tell whether Limbaugh is being dishonest or just stupid, isn't it? As you imply, any one of Trump's recent predecessors could have met with whichever Kim was the NK dictator at the time, because a one-on-one meeting with the POTUS would have been a big boost of international status for Kim.
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Old 04-21-2018, 07:38 AM
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If I were a Republican, I would point out that North Korea hasn’t done a bunch of other things, like close its concentration camps, stop all arms trade, etc and declare this development as “the worst deal in history, and I know deals.”

Last edited by Ravenman; 04-21-2018 at 07:40 AM.
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Old 04-21-2018, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Hard to tell whether Limbaugh is being dishonest or just stupid, isn't it?
Can't he be both, like the late Antonin Scalia?

Er, wrong forum for that. Gratuitous Simpsons quotes belong elsewhere. How about I say that I admire how Li'l Kim turned the destruction of his test site into a grand gesture of conciliation?

Last edited by dropzone; 04-21-2018 at 01:24 PM.
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Old 04-21-2018, 01:35 PM
Morgenstern Morgenstern is online now
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
...
I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. ...
A few things.

1. Never believe anything 'lil Kim says.
2. Never believe anything the old groper says.
3. Never accept the administration's take on this.

I'm telling you this for your own good.
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:27 PM
Johnny Ace Johnny Ace is online now
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Originally Posted by Morgenstern View Post
A few things.

1. Never believe anything 'lil Kim says.
2. Never believe anything the old groper says.
3. Never accept the administration's take on this.

I'm telling you this for your own good.
Pissin' in the wind...
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Old 04-21-2018, 08:45 PM
penultima thule penultima thule is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades.
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Originally Posted by Morgenstern View Post
A few things.

1. Never believe anything 'lil Kim says.
2. Never believe anything the old groper says.
3. Never accept the administration's take on this.

I'm telling you this for your own good.
And I thank you, not that you need to convince me.

What would be really helpful if you assist in convincing that 40% of the US happily lapping this DRT=MAGA stuff up with a soup ladle.

I think they'd agree with your dot points, except you need to change where it says 'lil Kim for Clinton.
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Old 04-21-2018, 09:48 PM
asahi asahi is offline
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Originally Posted by penultima thule View Post
North Korea haven't run a nuclear test or launched ICBMs for several months.
Now unilateralists seem to be awarding them brownie points for saying they'll do what they have already done.

Why they stopped? Dunno. Maybe they think they don't need further tests or they are running short of resources. They are certainly down one launch site.
Whether/when they plan to resume is outside my ken but not getting what they want (which is the disarming of South Korea before they consider any disarmament of North Korea) in any upcoming talks is pretty likely trigger point.
Their tests and belligerence tends to slow down during harvest season. I guess they're never quite sure if the famines will be so extreme that even their military deserts them.
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:09 PM
LAZombie LAZombie is offline
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The real question is when will Trump receive his Nobel Peace prize?

Obama got one for doing nothing. I had to Google it and it was very vague.
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Old 04-21-2018, 11:48 PM
penultima thule penultima thule is offline
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Their tests and belligerence tends to slow down during harvest season.
That'd make sense.
When talking about resources I forgot that for DPRNK food is too frequently limiting.
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:43 AM
Johnny Ace Johnny Ace is online now
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Originally Posted by LAZombie View Post
The real question is when will Trump receive his Nobel Peace prize?

Obama got one for doing nothing. I had to Google it and it was very vague.
Trump will win a Peace Prize when you become a Democrat.

Piece Prize, maybe.
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Old 04-22-2018, 03:03 AM
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Shit, if Henry Kissinger can win the Nobel Peace Price, who can't? Mengele can win for Medicine.
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Old 04-22-2018, 06:01 AM
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Shit, if Henry Kissinger can win the Nobel Peace Price, who can't? Mengele can win for Medicine.
Hey, Kissinger actually worked pretty hard for years before wining his Peace Prize*.
Obama won his just by sleeping in the White House for a couple months.






*and I assume it was unintentional, but your typopun ("peace PriCe") is pretty darn good )
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Old 04-22-2018, 08:28 AM
Blank Slate Blank Slate is offline
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Obama didn't "win" the Nobel, it was awarded to him by people who didn't realize that he was a status quo centrist.

It's true that the Nobel committee doesn't reward fascists and plutocrats, so Donny Boy is never going to get one. But so what? Let the Heritage Foundation or some other right wing institution come up with an award.
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Old 04-22-2018, 08:47 AM
Morgenstern Morgenstern is online now
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Anyone notice the latest pictures of lil' Kim? He's now wearing Western style business suits and ties. Trump Tower, Pyongyang can't be far behind.
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:09 AM
Vinyl Turnip Vinyl Turnip is offline
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Anyone notice the latest pictures of lil' Kim? He's now wearing Western style business suits and ties.
I haven't, but he does seem like someone who could rock a leather vest and bolo tie.
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Old 04-22-2018, 10:33 AM
Morgenstern Morgenstern is online now
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Here VT, the story behind it.


http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-a...im-look-banker
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Old 04-22-2018, 10:39 AM
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Obama didn't "win" the Nobel, it was awarded to him by people who didn't realize that he was a status quo centrist.

It's true that the Nobel committee doesn't reward fascists and plutocrats, so Donny Boy is never going to get one. But so what? Let the Heritage Foundation or some other right wing institution come up with an award.
Maybe Donnie Half-scoop can make him a "World's Greatest Dad" mug for Father's Day.
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:22 PM
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I'm rather pleasantly surprised with the progress Trump has made on the North Korean front. This appears, at least to me, to be the most significant progress towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula that has made in the last couple of decades. Am I missing something here, or is this good news?
It can be viewed as nothing but good news. You might even see the President and Mr. Kim on one of Trump's golf courses.

Anytime a isolations dictator agrees to suspend nuclear missile testing and join the rest of the world, that's a good thing.
  #40  
Old 04-22-2018, 12:25 PM
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... and join the rest of the world, ...
I hope you aren't holding your breath.
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:28 PM
running coach running coach is online now
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It can be viewed as nothing but good news. You might even see the President and Mr. Kim on one of Trump's golf courses.

Anytime a isolations dictator agrees to suspend nuclear missile testing and join the rest of the world, that's a good thing.
Show us where it says they'll stop making nuclear missiles

Don't forget, suspend isn't necessarily permanent.

Last edited by running coach; 04-22-2018 at 12:29 PM.
  #42  
Old 04-23-2018, 12:47 AM
CaptMurdock CaptMurdock is offline
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Show us where it says they'll stop making nuclear missiles

Don't forget, suspend isn't necessarily permanent.


Isn't that about the language used in the Iran deal? The same one Repubs excoriated Obama for?


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  #43  
Old 04-23-2018, 04:47 AM
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Trump the statesman?
This appears to be in English but the words taken together are gibberish.

Kim gave up nothing. Why continue to test bombs that you know work? They aren't cheap so why reduce your arsenal by one just to prove what you already know?

A real president would not have agreed to meet with Kim until all foreign nationals held by NK have been released. The real danger with this summit is what Dumb Donald will agree to. Will he trade away a cow for a handful of magic beans? Will he say that NK can have all the missiles and bombs it wants as long as none can reach any of his properties? Will the dumb ass let himself get videotaped while having a pee party with the best hookers in North Korea? Negotiations with hostile parties should be undertaken with the best diplomats the country has to offer, not the dullest knife in the drawer.
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Old 04-23-2018, 08:03 AM
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Setting aside any snark: my suspicion here is that North Korea went on a crash program to test missiles like mad over the last couple years, along with an occasional nuclear test, in order to obtain what could be considered the lowest level of credible nuclear deterrent. Yes, they haven’t tested a full up system under realistic conditions. But it seems they probably have the building blocks for a nuclear deterrent, even if they haven’t all been integrated.

I think it was simply a matter of time before North Korea tried to use this as a bargaining chip in some kind of political maneuver. Contrast this to Iran, which was engaging in a whole lot of enrichment with very little else apparent in terms of weapons development. The North Koreans want the bomb badly, the Iranians have not had that level of commitment (as far as we know).

The issue I keep thinking about is whether North Korea was brought to the table by sanctions. I don’t see anything to make me believe that sanctions are threatening the existence of the North Korean state. But nuclear weapons are intended to be a guarantee of the North Korean state (for different reasons). Again, this is very different than Iran, IMHO.

So to the extent that one might imply that diplomatic pressure brought North Korea to the state.... I’m not so sure. Maybe Xi managed to get KJU to commit to something, but I’m inclined to think that North Korea was simply ready to try to cut a deal.

Of course, I cannot see that there’s a basis for a deal here, but that doesn’t mean that we ought not follow up on it. Jaw jaw, war war and all that.
  #45  
Old 04-23-2018, 10:35 AM
Bryan Ekers Bryan Ekers is offline
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It's inevitable that Trump will have some successes, but it's way too early to say if this is one. To get the meeting, I don't doubt Kim would have agreed to (or at least promised to agree to) a lot of things. A short-term suspension of testing is a cheap, possibly even money-saving way to make the meeting more likely.

We're not likely to see signs of any lasting impact for several months at least, barring something dramatic happening during the meeting itself, i.e. it takes place not in North Korea and while Kim is out of the country, a faction murders his entire family and declares a coup.
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  #46  
Old 04-23-2018, 11:07 AM
Morgenstern Morgenstern is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryan Ekers View Post
It's inevitable that Trump will have some successes, but it's way too early to say if this is one. ....

In the sense that even a blind squirrel stumbles upon a nut occasionally.

What really happened. Kim goes to China. China tells Kim to go along with hamster hands, then do whatever you like when he's not looking. Hamster hands tweets that Kim is a better friend to the US than Putin. Kim no longer has nuclear missiles, but his space exploration program has become very active as he tests his missiles putting rocks into orbit. Of course, his nukes are still in production.
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  #47  
Old 04-23-2018, 12:07 PM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Any progress made by Republicans to address the problem of NK's nukes is at best an attempt to undo the damage they did in enabling those nukes in the first place. I wish them well, but they don't deserve our plaudits.
Yes, right now the goal that Trump is seeking (and implausibly claiming he's already achieved) is to restore the situation that existed during the Clinton administration.

And I think Trump will fail to actually achieve his goal. North Korea isn't going to give up its nuclear weapons. Trump, however, will invent a new definition for "denuclearization" and claim he won.
  #48  
Old 04-23-2018, 12:16 PM
Bryan Ekers Bryan Ekers is offline
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Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
Yes, right now the goal that Trump is seeking (and implausibly claiming he's already achieved) is to restore the situation that existed during the Clinton administration.

And I think Trump will fail to actually achieve his goal. North Korea isn't going to give up its nuclear weapons. Trump, however, will invent a new definition for "denuclearization" and claim he won.
The most likely outcome I can see from Trump is that after the summit, he declares that Kim is now his friend, that they've come to a mutual understanding and respect, and that's it, mission accomplished, where's my Peace Prize? Japan and South Korea will be rather less than impressed. Kim might hold off on weapons tests for a while and will tell the North Koreans about the massive victory he won over America who was forced to send their president to beg and scrape in fear of North Korean power.
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  #49  
Old 04-23-2018, 01:30 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Originally Posted by CaptMurdock View Post
Isn't that about the language used in the Iran deal? The same one Repubs excoriated Obama for?
Sorry, no comparison. What the Repubs excoriated Obama for was a program that's much more rigorous than anything Trump's likely to get out of Kim:

1) Iran doesn't have any nuclear weapons.
2) They've agreed to not refine uranium beyond a given level of purity that's well short of the level where it would work in a nuclear warhead.
3) They've agreed to a rigorous program of inspections of their nuclear facilities.
4) Those inspections are already ongoing.

The language you're referring to is where NK has agreed to:

0) Suspend nuclear missile testing.

They still have nukes and aren't giving them up, they haven't agreed to cease refining uranium to bomb-grade levels, they haven't agreed to inspections.
  #50  
Old 04-23-2018, 01:41 PM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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North Korea has built its nuclear weapons program up the point where it no longer needs to run tests.

Trump has done nothing except accept this situation and is now offering North Korea some official recognition.

Trump will declare he has achieved a great victory. His followers will believe everything he tells them. The rest of us will be relieved that Trump did nothing because Trump doing nothing is generally less dangerous than Trump trying to do something.

Trump will whine.
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