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Old 10-21-2018, 09:39 PM
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Fall 2018 Central America migrant caravan to the US

By now most Dopers are prolly aware that there's a huge caravan of migrants coming through Mexico, making their way to the United States in hopes of finding a place where they can make a better life for themselves and their families.

https://apnews.com/b709e05ec83c49e6876ff612141ae942

Quote:
A growing caravan of Honduran migrants streamed through southern Mexico on Sunday heading toward the United States, after making an end-run around Mexican agents who briefly blocked them at the Guatemalan border.

They received help at every turn from sympathetic Mexicans who offered food, water and clothing. Hundreds of locals driving pickups, vans and cargo trucks stopped to let them clamber aboard.

Besi Jaqueline Lopez of the Honduran city of San Pedro Sula carried a stuffed polar bear in a winter cap that seemed out of place in the tropical heat. It’s the favorite — and only — toy of her two daughters, 4-year-old Victoria and 3-year-old Elisabeth, who trudged beside her gleaming with sweat.

A business administration graduate, Lopez said she couldn’t find work back home and hopes to reach the United States, but would stay in Mexico if she could find employment here.

“My goal is to find work for a better future for my daughters,” she said.

In dozens of interviews along the journey, they have said they are fleeing widespread violence, poverty and corruption in Honduras. The caravan is unlike previous mass migrations for its unprecedented large numbers, and because it largely began spontaneously through word of mouth.
The current president of the United States has blamed the opposition party for the caravan and has said he will call out the military to stop the people in the caravan from entering the country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donald Trump
The Caravans are a disgrace to the Democrat party. Change the immigration laws NOW!
Quote:
Trump also repeated: “I will seal off the border before (the migrants) come into this country, and I’ll bring out our military, not our reserves.”
I'm not looking forward to the occurrence itself, but I admit to being curious about the US public response to video footage of an American soldier shooting an unarmed migrant who simply refused to stop walking forward.

Will Trump really roll out a military response to this caravan?
Will Americans care?
Will there be any effect at the ballot box due to the caravan?
What should be done?
What do you think will be done?
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Old 10-21-2018, 11:18 PM
foolsguinea foolsguinea is online now
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Why is this in Elections? Can I write in "Honduran refugee caravan" as my choice to fill a local office?
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:19 AM
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Wonder if there is any polling on this issue. One way or another, candidates will probably be forced to clarify a stance on the migrants - but it remains to be seen whether pro or anti would win more votes.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:25 AM
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One way or another, candidates will probably be forced to clarify a stance on the migrants....
And a good thing too.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:30 AM
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By now most Dopers are prolly aware that there's a huge caravan of migrants coming through Mexico
(post shortened)

It appears that a caravan of illegal aliens have illegally entered Mexico's southern border. Since this is the Elections forum, should I assume that they are illegally entering Mexico in order to illegally vote in Mexico's elections at some future time?
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:39 AM
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Huh? Even I'm missing your point.

The caravan's being allowed to move through Mexico because they have the United States as their goal.

The only elections they'll effect are our owns.

Last edited by HeweyLogan; 10-22-2018 at 01:40 AM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:40 AM
guizot guizot is offline
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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
By now most Dopers are prolly aware that there's a huge caravan of migrants. . .
You know these groups that travel together always start out big and by the time any of them get to the U.S. border it's not some huge "caravan" but much fewer people. This is all just more trump-hype for his cult follows to parrot like hysterical toadies. It's not a crisis. More people from Canada violate their visas in a week than number of this "caravan" that will actually present themselves at the border and ask for asylum.

And the notion that they're coming here to vote? What kind of an idiot believes that?

Last edited by guizot; 10-22-2018 at 01:41 AM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:45 AM
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You know these groups that travel together always start out big and by the time any of them get to the U.S. border it's not some huge "caravan" but much fewer people. This is all just more trump-hype for his cult follows to parrot like hysterical toadies. It's not a crisis. More people from Canada violate their visas in a week than number of this "caravan" that will actually present themselves at the border and ask for asylum.

And the notion that they're coming here to vote? What kind of an idiot believes that?
In other words, unless I'm wrong, 'Who cares. Let 'em in'?

Are you this lax interpreting the law when it comes to guns?

Last edited by HeweyLogan; 10-22-2018 at 01:49 AM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:53 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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... Will Trump really roll out a military response to this caravan? ...
Probably not, at least not like you're envisioning. Perhaps some NG guys / MPs will help flex-cuff some illegal immigrants.

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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
... Will Americans care? ...
I suspect very few will.

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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
... Will there be any effect at the ballot box due to the caravan? ...
If groups of unarmed, non-violent illegal immigrants actually start getting shot, the effect would be significant, but I doubt that will happen.

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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
... What should be done? ...
Arrest them and deport them back to Honduras. Build a wall to keep them out.

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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
... What do you think will be done?
Some of them will get in. Some will be deported. There will be much whining from the right about the former and much whining from the left about the latter.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 10-22-2018 at 01:54 AM.
  #10  
Old 10-22-2018, 02:03 AM
guizot guizot is offline
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In other words, unless I'm wrong, 'Who cares. Let 'em in'?
Just process them according to current laws. As mentioned above, some will be paroled, and some will be deported. It's not the end of the world.
  #11  
Old 10-22-2018, 02:14 AM
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Then why this thread?
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Old 10-22-2018, 03:06 AM
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Why is this in Elections? Can I write in "Honduran refugee caravan" as my choice to fill a local office?
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Originally Posted by HeweyLogan View Post
Then why this thread?
Elections is the place
Quote:
For discussion of elections and electoral politics, including strategy and tactics, political parties, individual races, political news, and politicians and public figures.
In the OP I explicitly quoted the President of the United States saying that he would deploy the military in order to prevent these people from entering the country. The POTUS is a politician; what he says is political news.

As this is taking place shortly before an election and Trump is campaigning for GOP candidates partly on a platform that places a heavy emphasis on immigration policy, news of this is likely to affect how people think and feel about that issue as they cast their votes, IMO.

I would have thought it was obvious that I started the thread because I'm interested a discussion of the situation, with particular focus on what Trump may or may not actually do in a couple of weeks when these folks make it to the US/Mexico border and how that may affect the political climate in the US.
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Old 10-22-2018, 06:27 AM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is offline
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probably means a few more votes for GOP candidates
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Old 10-22-2018, 06:52 AM
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This has all the makings of an October surprise.

If it becomes violent and the Internet overlords allow footage to get out and be dispersed, this could sway the election in favor of the Republicans. Latinos are not a monolithic group. This caravan has been identified an Honduran which may not sit favorably with those who identify as Mexican American.
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Old 10-22-2018, 07:06 AM
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There is no immigration crisis — don’t believe Trump’s pre-election rhetoric. Attempted and actual migration to the US is at a low point (it peaked 18 years ago). Central Americans fleeing gang violence and poverty are more likely now to move in groups (into Mexico, and the some of them into the US), to avoid being raped, robbed, and abused along the way, so they may be more “visible,” but the overall rate is steady.
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Old 10-22-2018, 07:08 AM
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Here’s one good source of info: https://www.lawfareblog.com/whos-rea...-theyre-coming
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Old 10-22-2018, 07:09 AM
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And here’s another: https://www.npr.org/2018/10/20/65920...owing-in-size?
  #18  
Old 10-22-2018, 07:27 AM
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This is the last thing we need, to give US racists more motivation to get out and vote Republican in two weeks. It's prompting the usual moronic calls to build a wall. Let's see now- the migrants have a right under international law to come to a border crossing and apply for asylum. Exactly how would a wall deter that? You just can't argue with those who are unwilling or unable to comprehend simple facts.
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Old 10-22-2018, 07:58 AM
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Trump and the GOP will milk every last drip drop of this 'crisis.' Polemic works to their advantage.
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Old 10-22-2018, 08:02 AM
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I should mention that I lived and worked in Mexico, just a few kilometers from its southern border with Guatemala, on and off for eight years. Not that this should necessarily give me extra credibility on the current situation, but I thought It was worth mentioning.
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Old 10-22-2018, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by LAZombie View Post
This has all the makings of an October surprise.
They're a thousand miles or so from the U.S. border. I don't think they'll be knocking at the door in 15 days.
Quote:
If it becomes violent and the Internet overlords allow footage to get out and be dispersed, this could sway the election in favor of the Republicans. Latinos are not a monolithic group. This caravan has been identified an Honduran which may not sit favorably with those who identify as Mexican American.
So if it becomes violent, how? By internal clashes amongst the Hondurans? By clashes between the Hondurans in the caravan, and the Mexicans whose territory they're passing through?

Either one means they're a lot less likely to arrive at the U.S. border anytime soon, which would make this more of a non-issue.

Quote:
Internet overlords
What, is there an Internet equivalent of the Deep State or something?
  #22  
Old 10-22-2018, 09:01 AM
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Trump has declared (on twitter) that this situation is a "National Emergy":

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...51078328885248
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Old 10-22-2018, 09:36 AM
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Clearly the U.S. is experiencing an Emergy Crisis.
  #24  
Old 10-22-2018, 10:23 AM
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Trump and the GOP will milk every last drip drop of this 'crisis.' Polemic works to their advantage.
This we agree on.
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Old 10-22-2018, 10:53 AM
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Will Trump really roll out a military response to this caravan?
I think he will if they make it to the US border. I think that's a big IF though. Mexico is a huge country, and the group should be pretty dispersed by the time they get to the Rio Grande. Many of the migrants might choose to stay in Mexico. If the majority of them do decide to cross into the US though, it won't be in one huge mass like they did in Guatemala, they will trickle in through border towns.

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Will Americans care?
I don't know. Like I said, by the time they actually get to the US (if they do), they will be so dispersed that the dynamics of the crossing won't be so dramatic.

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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
Will there be any effect at the ballot box due to the caravan?
The migrants won't be voting. I guess the situation could get a few activists riled up to bring more people to the ballot box on both sides, but I don't think it will shift the elections one way or the other.

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What should be done?
The War on Drugs should be ended.

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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
What do you think will be done?
Nothing. This will blow over like everything else.
  #26  
Old 10-22-2018, 11:02 AM
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This morning Trump tweeted that he was going to cut off financial aid to Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador because of the migrants.
Quote:
Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador were not able to do the job of stopping people from leaving their country and coming illegally to the U.S.
I note that his tweet shows an incredible ignorance of what governments actually do and do not do: most governments of free peoples do not prevent their own citizens from traveling outside their country.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 10-22-2018 at 11:03 AM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:16 AM
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The man wants to be Kim Il-sung, as I have said.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:20 AM
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This morning Trump tweeted that he was going to cut off financial aid to Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador because of the migrants.I note that his tweet shows an incredible ignorance of what governments actually do and do not do: most governments of free peoples do not prevent their own citizens from traveling outside their country.
I had never thought about it that way. That is utterly terrifying.

Last edited by EscAlaMike; 10-22-2018 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:37 AM
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I don't know. Like I said, by the time they actually get to the US (if they do), they will be so dispersed that the dynamics of the crossing won't be so dramatic.
Yep, and Trump will claim that his strong rhetoric is what kept them from coming.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:41 AM
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this is fantasy come true for Trump and his fans. And the timing is perfect too. If he was smart he would actually fund this group.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:43 AM
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If he was smart he would actually fund this group.
Who's to say he's not?
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:48 AM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is offline
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George Soros funding them right? or some Hollywood liberal billionaire.
  #33  
Old 10-22-2018, 11:52 AM
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If he was smart he would actually fund this group.
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Who's to say he's not?
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that this was actually directed and funded by GOP operatives. I mean, think about it: who is going to benefit?
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:55 AM
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The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that this was actually directed and funded by GOP operatives. I mean, think about it: who is going to benefit?
Sounds like a vast right-wing conspiracy to me
  #35  
Old 10-22-2018, 11:57 AM
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If he was smart he would actually fund this group.
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Originally Posted by EscAlaMike View Post
Who's to say he's not?
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that this was actually directed and funded by GOP operatives. I mean, think about it: who is going to benefit the most from this? Not the migrants themselves, at least not in the short term. Why would Democrats have funded or directed this? They wouldn't gain anything from it (and in fact are not gaining anything from it).

But the GOP... they stand to gain a lot from the imagery of a city-sized mob pushing up to the border, a mob (of dark skinned people!) so large that the entire Mexican police force and army didn't even try and stop them...

ETA: Sorry for the sort-of double post y'all.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 10-22-2018 at 11:58 AM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:59 AM
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The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that this was actually directed and funded by GOP operatives. I mean, think about it: who is going to benefit?
If you want to convince people to accept a nutty hypothesis, best not to encourage them to think about it.

The timing of this is not good for the Democrats, and even if it's not a deal breaker, every little bit helps (or hurts). But this is a tough and complex problem and I'm not sure what the best solution is. I expect that whatever solution Trump comes up with, It will be:

1. Overly simplistic.
2. Unlikely to work.
3. Possibly/likely to be unconstitutional.
  #37  
Old 10-22-2018, 12:02 PM
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Sounds like a vast right-wing conspiracy to me
You joke but you know that there are and have been recent right-wing conspiracies (of debatable "vastness, no doubt), right?
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:04 PM
EscAlaMike EscAlaMike is offline
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If you want to convince people to accept a nutty hypothesis, best not to encourage them to think about it.
Agreed, I hope everyone could see that my comments were tongue-in-cheek.

This is just an example of the Trump administration not letting a good crisis go to waste. They are exploiting this situation to their advantage.

The Central American migrant crisis is directly the fault of the US government however, both R's and D's, as it is directly caused by the bi-partisan War on Drugs.
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:13 PM
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Agreed, I hope everyone could see that my comments were tongue-in-cheek.

This is just an example of the Trump administration not letting a good crisis go to waste. They are exploiting this situation to their advantage.

The Central American migrant crisis is directly the fault of the US government however, both R's and D's, as it is directly caused by the bi-partisan War on Drugs.
It's even worse than that. There IS no crisis.
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:15 PM
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This morning Trump tweeted that he was going to cut off financial aid to Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador because of the migrants.I note that his tweet shows an incredible ignorance of what governments actually do and do not do: most governments of free peoples do not prevent their own citizens from traveling outside their country.
What. The. Everloving. F.... You do realize, Orange Moron (and the fools who voted for him -- sorry, I had to say it), that: 1. There is no migration crisis, and 2. Even if there were, this is EXACTLY the kind of action that would make it WORSE.
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:16 PM
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It's even worse than that. There IS no crisis.
Well yes, you're right in terms of the big picture.

But it seems that there really is a group of thousands of real Hondurans who have fled their country. I don't know if this qualifies as a "crisis", but it definitely indicates that things in Honduras are not exactly rosy.
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:32 PM
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Well yes, you're right in terms of the big picture.

But it seems that there really is a group of thousands of real Hondurans who have fled their country. I don't know if this qualifies as a "crisis", but it definitely indicates that things in Honduras are not exactly rosy.
For sure.

Again, not that it gives me any great insight necessarily, but I also lived in Honduras for a couple months -- in both the capital, Tegucigalpa, and in the distant rural area of Moskitia, where unfortunately the combination of perpetual demand by US citizens for drugs + efforts by Mexico to re-route much of the drug trafficking = local violence an insecurity where there was none to speak of before (well, except in the 80s, when the US was funding Contras to fight in Nicaragua...)
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:41 PM
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I had never thought about it that way. That is utterly terrifying.
Of all the things that the guy does that show his staggering ignorance about how governments work, and in particular how our government works, this is the one that terrifies you?
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:51 PM
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Of all the things that the guy does that show his staggering ignorance about how governments work, and in particular how our government works, this is the one that terrifies you?
His ignorance doesn't terrify me. It's the authoritarianism.
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:59 PM
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Anyone know how big the group is now? BLS CPS estimates 1.7 million more foreign-born in the US last month than when Trump took office, so I'm seeing this caravan as a blip. That doesn't mean people's reactions will be similarly insignificant.

Last edited by Ruken; 10-22-2018 at 12:59 PM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:03 PM
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I just checked three sites and keep seeing "thousands". Some good reporting there.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:12 PM
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Trump and the GOP will milk every last drip drop of this 'crisis.' Polemic works to their advantage.
I think the migrant caravan is going to make blue races bluer and red races redder.

Liberal areas will see the migrants as people in need of aid and a better life and it will propel their vote. Conservative areas will see a mob, a horde, almost as if the migrants are akin to army ants. It could propel the conservative vote too.

Probably boost the Dems in the House and the Republicans in the Senate.
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Old 10-22-2018, 01:50 PM
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I'm seeing ~7k. How accurate that count is, I don't know.
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Old 10-22-2018, 02:15 PM
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How are the Mexican thugs responding? What opportunities arise for men with guns, greed, and no humanity to speak of? There has to be an anti-immigrant movement in Mexico, if there were not, Mexico would be qualified for state sainthood. And if that movement makes a deal with the cartel gangsters? Support for the fascists in exchange for less trouble about drugs, maybe a couple of bucks, here and there?

Right now, it appears that the rurales, the common people of Mexico are reacting with compassion and tolerance, though God knows they have little enough to share. But what happens when they get further north, into territory the cartels essentially own? And of course, the federales. What role are they expected to play?

Good people see a mass of the helpless and needy. Bad people see a potential bonanza of young women and girls to be harvested. The bad people are well armed, and entirely ruthless. Also, greedy.

And so its going.

Last edited by elucidator; 10-22-2018 at 02:15 PM.
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Old 10-22-2018, 04:28 PM
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You can bet on CNN and other media outlets the pictures will all be of women and children, while on conservative sites it will be mostly young men.

I suspect the truth is in the middle.
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