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Old 11-07-2018, 11:52 AM
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Thump will be re-elected in 2020. Count on it.

Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him.
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  #2  
Old 11-07-2018, 11:55 AM
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Care to elaborate?
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Old 11-07-2018, 11:57 AM
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I disagree. He didn't even get a majority of the popular vote in 2016, and that was before two years worth of outrageous behavior. Even though Trump wasn't running in this election, the huge voter turnout was fueled by anti-Trump sentiment for the most part.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:03 PM
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Sadly, I can't disagree. Republicans will pinch their nose and vote for him to keep pushing their pro-gun agenda, and the prospect of supreme court appointments.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:04 PM
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I disagree as well, but Bernie needs to just stay where he is and not run again. Also, the ACLU needs to ramp up their lawsuits regarding voter suppression, which is almost exclusive to Republican strongholds.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:15 PM
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If the election were held today, that's possibly true, depending on turnout, especially if the Dems idealistically nominate some putz vulnerable to Trump's smears (cite: "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." -- H.L. Mencken, September 19, 1926 )

But a lot can happen between now and 2020 -- weakening or tanking of the economy in the hands of incompetents, perhaps aggravated by trade issues; more revelations and investigations with the power of a Democrat-controlled House behind them; more idiocy in general from a clueless and more desperate administration; the US becoming more and more obviously a laughingstock on the world stage and useless in international diplomacy, etc.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:21 PM
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Bernie probably has a good chance, but I think anyone else would probably lose. I don't want another conservative (clinton) running with the party of FDR and JFK.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:28 PM
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Bernie probably has a good chance, but I think anyone else would probably lose. I don't want another conservative (clinton) running with the party of FDR and JFK.
Why do you think Bernie has a good chance? The districts that resulted in the Democrats taking the House were primarily suburban districts that went to Trump in 2016, and the shift was primarily moderate/independent voters that voted Democrat this time around that were seeking a check and balance on the Trump administration.

In much the same way that the Democratic party missed the point in the 2016 POTUS election, they need to not stand blindly by and think that this mid term election was a referendum on a far left progressive agenda, because it wasn't.

I do think that the Democrats can regain control of the White House if they lean to a more centrist moderate position.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:30 PM
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I think it's still way too early to tell, but it's been a long time since a President did NOT win re-election (1992).

As long as the economy is still good, I don't see any reason why Trump won't get re-elected.
  #10  
Old 11-07-2018, 12:32 PM
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Very few things are so certain as to be “counted on” at a distance of two years, not least the results of a presidential election. Trump remains relatively unpopular; some degree of economic downturn is nearly certain to happen, taking away a major advantage in the eyes of voters. There’s no reasonable method by which we can conclude that he’ll definitely win (or lose), unless you have some prophetic dreams you’re hiding from the rest of us.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:43 PM
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most incumbents win unless the economy tanks - like what happened to Carter and Bush Sr. Or if you have a war that is going badly like LBJ - he technically dropped out in 68 but he was not going to win.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:49 PM
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As an outsider, my own humble opinion:

1. You canít go anywhere near impeachment if you are Democratic. It will galvanize his base and just about anyone the Dems run will get hammered.

2. The Dems need to be in lock step.

3. And have a platform they can rally behind and get excited about. It canít be all anti-Trump or they will lose. I personally feel it needs to be progressive if you want to draw out younger voters, but thatís just me.

4. The party also has to be entirely behind its candidate and canít be infighting or they will lose.

5. The candidate should be exciting and quick on their feet and ideally new. Biden might win but as much as I like him, he might be too old - as is Sanders.

Just as I see it now...2 years is a long time though.
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Old 11-07-2018, 01:04 PM
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I disagree. I think most people would agree that the economy is humming along. Unemployment is at historic lows. Inflation is low. Interest rates are creeping up but still pretty low. Wages are finally starting to rise.

Really, it could hardly have been better for the Republicans. And yet they still lost the House by a pretty good margin. The way things were stacked for the Senate plus the economy meant there was no way the Republicans were losing that. They lost quite a few state Governors, including Wi, Mi, and Penn, the 3 states Trump won in 2016 that put him over the top.

The fact that the Dems did as good as they did is almost 100% due to dislike of Trump. If the economy had been tanking too, it would have been a tsunami.

I suppose it's possible that the economy will still be humming along 2 years from now. If that happens I guess I'll just have to tip my hat to Trump and say "good job". I really don't see that happening though.
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Old 11-07-2018, 01:17 PM
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It only takes one of the following to sink his reelection:

1. Economy goes down
2. Voters are sickened of him after two more years
3. Enough voters in two big swing states (say, Ohio and Florida) turn on him.
  #15  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:21 PM
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I agree with Fugazi and disagree with the OP. If this is as good as the Party can do electorally when the economy is like it is now, they're in for a catastrophic collapse when the bottom falls out, and that could easily happen over the next year.

What we have to watch out for now is an attempt to depower or demonize the House of Representatives, with the White House and the Senate trying to put in judges who can "interpret" the constitution ideologically and rule from the courts.
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Old 11-07-2018, 01:23 PM
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Now that the House is in Democrat hands, I suspect they will spend much of their time investigating things. There is an outside chance that they might actually find something.

There is an even slimmer chance they will proceed with impeachment based on whatever they think they have already found. Maybe they will put Ocasio-Cortez in charge of it, or someone else who doesn't realize that 67 - 54 is not equal to 2/3*100.

What is more likely is two years of gridlock. Which is not necessarily the worst thing for the country - doing nothing is usually better than doing something stupid, or a lot of somethings that are stupid. There is very little chance that the progressives in the House will be able to bring off any of the things they want, thank God, and the further off the deep end they go the better for the other side.

The advantage is always with the incumbent President. One wonders if the Dems can muster two more years of outrage.

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  #17  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:25 PM
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Bernie probably has a good chance, but I think anyone else would probably lose. I don't want another conservative (clinton) running with the party of FDR and JFK.
Given that the left wingers almost universally got repudiated in all but the bluest districts, it's either a moderate/conservative or four more years of Trump.
  #18  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:35 PM
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Bernie probably has a good chance, but I think anyone else would probably lose. I don't want another conservative (clinton) running with the party of FDR and JFK.
I disagree. I think Trump is hoping he gets to run against Sanders or somebody like him.
  #19  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:36 PM
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One wonders if the Dems can muster two more years of outrage.
They'll have Trump helping them.
  #20  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:40 PM
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There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him.
It's 2018. Trump wasn't running for re-election this year. Why should the Democrats have been setting up a presidential candidate?

What they've been doing is focusing on Congress. Now that this election is done, they can begin working on direct opposition to Trump.
  #21  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:47 PM
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Bernie probably has a good chance, but I think anyone else would probably lose. I don't want another conservative (clinton) running with the party of FDR and JFK.
Bernie doesn't stand a chance, and it he would have lost last time as well. The Democrats need new blood, not old.
  #22  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:50 PM
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Bernie doesn't stand a chance, and it he would have lost last time as well. The Democrats need new blood, not old.
The Dems need someone charismatic. The vast majority of the time, the race goes to the more charismatic candidate.
  #23  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:50 PM
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We're forgetting someone, aren't we? A certain Mr. Mueller is still investigating and should he find irrefutable evidence of criminal activity on Mr. Trump's part, that could have an impact could it not?
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Old 11-07-2018, 01:51 PM
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I'll stress again that new blood is only useful if the new blood is ready. I'm not convinced any of the young Democrats can handle the national stage, which is why you at least need a Sanders or Biden on that debate stage to see what the whippersnappers have got. The absolute worst thing that could happen would be for a young Democrat to be treated with kid gloves by the media and the more experienced Democrats and then walk right into Trump's fist.
  #25  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:52 PM
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The Dems need someone charismatic. The vast majority of the time, the race goes to the more charismatic candidate.
This election actually broke that mold. The popular, charismatic ones the Democrats were high on all fell short. The main reason seems to be, too far out of step with their voters on ideology. Something to think about with all these young Democrats being bold progressives. May not work on a national stage.
  #26  
Old 11-07-2018, 01:58 PM
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If the election were held today, that's possibly true, depending on turnout, especially if the Dems idealistically nominate some putz vulnerable to Trump's smears (cite: "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." -- H.L. Mencken, September 19, 1926 )

But a lot can happen between now and 2020 -- weakening or tanking of the economy in the hands of incompetents, perhaps aggravated by trade issues; more revelations and investigations with the power of a Democrat-controlled House behind them; more idiocy in general from a clueless and more desperate administration; the US becoming more and more obviously a laughingstock on the world stage and useless in international diplomacy, etc.
Left-leaning voters might care about those things. Conservatives surely do not.
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Old 11-07-2018, 02:00 PM
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What matters is what moderates, especially Obama/Trump voters, care about. What liberals and conservatives care about is unimportant.
  #28  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:02 PM
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We're forgetting someone, aren't we? A certain Mr. Mueller is still investigating and should he find irrefutable evidence of criminal activity on Mr. Trump's part, that could have an impact could it not?
Doubtful. Trump could choke a baby on live TV and his dumbfuck voters would claim it had it coming. And the Republican Senate won't do a damned thing. Things like 'evidence' simply don't matter in this universe.
  #29  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:07 PM
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Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him.

Will Pelosi will run against him? She is all over the news today, maybe she's the new face of the Dems?
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  #30  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:07 PM
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Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him.
I don't know if Trump will be re-elected or not, but I'm about as confident as I can be that he will never win a majority of the popular vote. That counts for something, although clearly it's not dispositive.
  #31  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:21 PM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is online now
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the way things are trending it could be the GOP wins more elections in the future by the electoral vote while losing the popular vote. That's possible now because CA is so large and is a very blue state.
  #32  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:21 PM
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Trump won only because of razor-thin margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This year the Democrats won every state-wide election in those states (governor, senator, attorney general). It's not unreasonable to predict that whomever the Democrats nominate in 2020 s/he will win those states. That's 46 electoral votes Trump can't possibly make up.
  #33  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:29 PM
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I can't imagine why you would think that. He barely won against the most negatively viewed of all possible opponents, and his opinion has gone way down since then. And it is not a fickle hate, it is a deep and abiding hate that is not going away.

It would take another epic fuck up to not take him down.
  #34  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:35 PM
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It would take another epic fuck up to not take him down.
"...and I know just the ones for the job!"
  #35  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:44 PM
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I don't know if Trump will be re-elected or not, but I'm about as confident as I can be that he will never win a majority of the popular vote. That counts for something, although clearly it's not dispositive.
What does it count for? As you are aware, we don't elect Presidents by the popular vote.
  #36  
Old 11-07-2018, 02:50 PM
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Based on his performance at today's press conference, I think there's a strong possibility that Trump isn't even going to make it to 2020. He's not a fighter, he's a bully. Now that he has opposition with teeth in the House he's going to get increasingly tired of defending himself. Even money on him either stepping aside "for health reasons" or declining to run in 2020 (after making a big show of leading up to "The Decision" on his part).

Naturally he'll declare victory on his way out.
  #37  
Old 11-07-2018, 03:07 PM
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I feel more like the OP today than I did yesterday. My biggest concern has been that Democrats won't be able to produce a strong nominee. But I hoped some 2016 Trump voters would come to reason. Here in Ohio, Mike DeWine was very heavily advertising Trump's endorsement for governor. I wondered how this would play out. DeWine won by a pretty good margin. Republicans overall did quite well in Ohio yesterday.

But looking outside Ohio to other states, Democrats did alright. Taking back the house is big. And a handful of other states' governors flipped from R to D. So that's something.
  #38  
Old 11-07-2018, 03:11 PM
Ambrosio Spinola Ambrosio Spinola is offline
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What does it count for? As you are aware, we don't elect Presidents by the popular vote.
It means that his victory depends on him winning the exact right mix of people in the exact right places and it's easy to screw that up - so sure, he could repeat his 2016 performance but there's also no reason to assume it's preordained either.
  #39  
Old 11-07-2018, 03:16 PM
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I'm not worried at all about 2020. Trump is too inept, too corrupt and too compromised to survive another election. Much like what happened in his business career, President Obama handed him everything, both peace and prosperity. Only a bumbling incompetent could remain under 45% approval with all of those advantages.

He's circling the drain now. In 2020, that turd gets flushed permanently.
  #40  
Old 11-07-2018, 03:29 PM
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It's 2018. Trump wasn't running for re-election this year. Why should the Democrats have been setting up a presidential candidate?

What they've been doing is focusing on Congress. Now that this election is done, they can begin working on direct opposition to Trump.
I thought that was part of the point of spending $70 million on Beto O'Rourke, to groom someone for 2020, even if he didn't win.

Besides, they need somebody new. Bernie Sanders? Joe Biden? Kamala Harris? Not exactly fresh faces.

And I don't think they are going to be any fresher in two years.

I'm the first to complain about starting a new election cycle ten minutes after the returns are in from the last one, but come on.

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  #41  
Old 11-07-2018, 03:29 PM
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Care to elaborate?
No need to. Everyone else did it for me. Thanks for the good comments.

I hope you optimists are right. I hope there are big changes between now and then. I hope the Dems don't shoot themselves in the feet. I hope Bernie Sanders sits down and shuts up.
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Last edited by ThelmaLou; 11-07-2018 at 03:30 PM.
  #42  
Old 11-07-2018, 03:44 PM
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Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him.
Dude, the opposition isn't even at the table yet.
  #43  
Old 11-07-2018, 03:56 PM
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Dude, the opposition isn't even at the table yet.
You must not follow politics. If you look at the national campaigning done in Georgia over the past several months for the Democratic candidate for Governor, Stacey Abrams, you would have seen every prominent Democrat that are considered to be seriously pondering a 2020 run for the nomination passing through Atlanta. The list includes:

Corey Booker
Kamala Harris
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Eric Holder
John Delaney
Oprah Winfrey

and I'm sure I've left a few off of that list.

Remember the huge number of Republicans vying for the nomination in the 2015-2016 election cycle...it was 17! I wouldn't be surprised to see that many seriously running on the Democratic side in 2019-2020.
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Old 11-07-2018, 04:28 PM
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As odd as it sounds, I would vote for Oprah in a heartbeat and I believe millions of others would too. Michael Moore thinks Michelle Obama might be the right person and that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris don't have a chance. I think he's right about that.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...booker-kamala/

Last edited by Aescwynn; 11-07-2018 at 04:30 PM.
  #45  
Old 11-07-2018, 04:34 PM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is online now
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wife of former president runs for president. Sounds familiar.
  #46  
Old 11-07-2018, 04:45 PM
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He's gonna need to win some new voters from either the Dems or the roughly 15 million new voters who weren't eligible to vote in 2016. The demographics have already changed -- and not in Don's favor -- such that if the '16 election were rerun today with all demographics voting at exactly the same levels of turnout and in exactly the same percentages for the candidates, that Hillary would win.

Now there are plenty of things Dems can do to lose again to Trump. But the numbers are there for the taking if they can get them, numbers that the GOP can't muster at their best. Republicans lost yesterday's national numbers by about nine points and it's really hard to imagine even the crazy old Electoral College breaking crazily enough to win Donald re-election with that kind of spread in '20.
  #47  
Old 11-07-2018, 04:50 PM
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Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him.
I disagree. I don't think he's going to run. What's in it for him? Lots if he wins, of course, but it was a close-run thing in 2016. He lost the popular vote, after all. Will he risk it? He'll have been President and it will be far better to be seen as an undefeated one-term President than one who could not win re-election. He can simply cite his age. If he's canny, he'll quit late next year 'for health reasons' so that Pence can establish himself and run as a sitting President and also protect Trump after his election. This also gets around Trump having a lame duck period.
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Old 11-07-2018, 04:56 PM
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I could see Trump quitting in the 2nd term (assuming he wins in 2020) so that he can be 2x unbeaten. The only way he does not run in 2020 is some major health issue . No way is he impeached and removed.
  #49  
Old 11-07-2018, 05:04 PM
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I see him quitting too, if he's reelected. I believe 2020 is also going to see more Democratic representatives and a Democratic Senate, after which Trump would bail quicker than frat boy in the dean's daughter's bedroom.

That said, I don't think he'll be reelected in 2020.
  #50  
Old 11-07-2018, 05:20 PM
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2020 could go either way, itís definitely not preordained. I think an intellectual, professorly type like Elizabeth Warren would definitely lose. Depending on the mood of the elecorate, someone like Joe Biden night do well if the nation is in the mood for an experienced scrapper. If itís looking like the people want new blood Iíd be in favor of Beto giving it a go despite his already saying that heís not going to run. There are several others who could win, but certainly arenít guaranteed to do so either. Here is my partial list of characteristics the ideal candidate would have.

1. Is able to convince people on the far left to turn out rather than stay at home or vote for the Green Party.

2. Appeals to moderates who are tired or afraid of Trump.

3. Does not inspire the far right to turn out to vote against him or her.
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