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Old 11-12-2018, 12:52 PM
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Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

The 2018 midterms are pretty well wrapped up, Florida, Arizona, Georgia and a dozen or so House races notwithstanding.

So it's only a matter of time before the ol' Democratic ring gets peppered with presidential-hopeful hats. So far we only have two (legitimate) hats out there, and tons of speculation, but I thought we could use a central place for keeping track of who's in, who's out and who's waving from the corner.

Who's in:
John Delaney, Congressman from MD, who's been declared since July 2017. A pro-business moderate who didn't run for re-election this year to focus on running for president. From what I can see, he was a largely inconsequential member of Congress.

Richard Ojeda, state senator and vet from WV who earned two Bronze Stars. A life-long Democrat who voted for Trump, which he now regrets. Pro-pot, pro-labor, has an MBA, just lost his Congressional race. The grandson of an illegal migrant from Mexico.

Who's waving from the corner:
Just to give all your sphincters a little extra pucker this afternoon...Former Clinton Advisor: Hillary will run in 2020
  #2  
Old 11-12-2018, 01:24 PM
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If Hillary was dumb enough to run she will go nowhere. You don't get a second chance when you lose to a moron.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:43 PM
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Mark Penn is a hack and probably hasn't spoken to Hillary in almost a decade. His predictions are worth less than nothing.
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:23 PM
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If Hillary is the nominee Trump can start writing his inauguration speech right now. I'd like to think she and her people are smarter than that.

I don't know enough about the two candidates in the OP to make an informed decision. Ojeda has an interesting profile but "voted for Trump" and "lost Congressional race" are not confidence inspiring. He's never held a position higher than State Senator? I know that the state senators here in TN, at least, are not an impressive lot.
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:57 PM
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Ex Starbucks CEO Schultz looking like he might run as a Dem

a key adviser for him is the guy who ran McCain's 2008 campaign

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/ex-s...house-run.html
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Old 11-12-2018, 04:43 PM
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Ojeda has made it official: https://www.yahoo.com/news/military-...-election.html

And as far as Schultz goes: I'd rather that Schmidt ran himself instead of being a behind-the-scenes guy for someone else.
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Old 11-12-2018, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
...

Who's waving from the corner:
Just to give all your sphincters a little extra pucker this afternoon...Former Clinton Advisor: Hillary will run in 2020
I have no doubt that Hillary would have made a fine President, and I voted for her without hesitation. But that last run proved two things:
1) People (lots of them) in this country really hate her.
2) She is capable of losing an election to Donald Emmer Effing Trump.

Sorry Hillary, that will not do. Please stay out of the way.
  #8  
Old 11-12-2018, 05:01 PM
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I don't know enough about the two candidates in the OP to make an informed decision. Ojeda has an interesting profile but "voted for Trump" and "lost Congressional race" are not confidence inspiring. He's never held a position higher than State Senator? I know that the state senators here in TN, at least, are not an impressive lot.
I'm reading that Ojeda is anti-abortion, which might be fine for a local race, but I think that's going to be a non-starter on a National level for the Dems.
  #9  
Old 11-12-2018, 05:10 PM
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Don't forget Swalwell and Avenatti. Avenatti has by far the most name recognition at this point.
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Old 11-12-2018, 05:19 PM
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if Schultz wins, we will get Starbucks on the few corners in America that don't already have one.
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Old 11-12-2018, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
if Schultz wins, we will get Starbucks on the few corners in America that don't already have one.
There are 4 parts to every corner, so even if a corner has one, there is room for 3 more!

Let's not forget Oprah. You can't spell Oval Office without O!!
  #12  
Old 11-12-2018, 05:34 PM
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....but enough about Bill Clinton.
  #13  
Old 11-12-2018, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Ex Starbucks CEO Schultz looking like he might run as a Dem

a key adviser for him is the guy who ran McCain's 2008 campaign

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/ex-s...house-run.html
The same guy who recommended McCain pick Sarah Palin?
  #14  
Old 11-12-2018, 05:45 PM
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this time he is going to pick Stormy Daniels as the running mate
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Old 11-12-2018, 06:45 PM
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The detailed vetting is the campaign's job. All anyone knew about Sarah Palin before she was picked was that she was the most popular governor in the country. Failure to vet her thoroughly was McCain's fault.

There are a lot of Democratic candidates being touted by various supposedly smart people who will turn out to be morons once Katie Couric quizzes them on basic facts.
  #16  
Old 11-12-2018, 07:12 PM
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... All anyone knew about Sarah Palin before she was picked was that she was the most popular governor in the country. ...
They did? She was?

Most popular governor?? Where was that decided, a "reality" show?

(So since that's allegedly a thing, who holds the title today?)

Last edited by bobot; 11-12-2018 at 07:14 PM.
  #17  
Old 11-12-2018, 07:36 PM
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They did? She was?

Most popular governor?? Where was that decided, a "reality" show?

(So since that's allegedly a thing, who holds the title today?)
He's just talking about approval ratings, I would assume, not some national survey.



Huh, I misremembered. I thought Julian Castro had declared but apparently he merely declared he's thinking about it.

Last edited by CarnalK; 11-12-2018 at 07:38 PM.
  #18  
Old 11-12-2018, 08:07 PM
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... (So since that's allegedly a thing, who holds the title today?)
Charlie Baker (R) of MA.

Net approval of +52 (at least it was in January), which was highest, but more so, in a state with a +24 D lean.

Right behind is Larry Hogan (R) MD, also a popular R in D land.


Ojeda running? Hey I had high hopes for him in WV but he got whomped. Of the two officially announced who is gone first?
  #19  
Old 11-12-2018, 08:17 PM
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Michael Bloomberg is reportedly considering running as a Democrat. I think Elisabeth Warren may give it a go too.

Of course there's Bernie Sanders.
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Old 11-12-2018, 08:29 PM
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As an aside, if there's anyone left who hadn't heard of the 2012 HBO Movie "Game Change" that detailed the process by which Schmidt/McCain landed on Palin as the running-mate, it's beyond fascinating. 76 hours ago, I'd never heard of the flick, then by 73 hours ago I subscribed to the notion that Julianne Moore is the greatest actress of our generation. Not to mention Sarah Paulson as Nicolle Wallace, and a nice cameo from the hilarious stuttering lawyer of 'My Cousin Vinny' portraying Joe Lieberman.

bastardized youtube version of the movie here (I have no idea if a better version is available through Netflix / Amazon Prime / etc).
  #21  
Old 11-12-2018, 08:32 PM
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Richard Ojeda would win in a landslide. Too bad he has no chance in the primaries.
  #22  
Old 11-12-2018, 08:43 PM
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Richard Ojeda would win in a landslide. Too bad he has no chance in the primaries.
I don't know much about Ojeda, but I wouldn't write him off.
  #23  
Old 11-12-2018, 08:44 PM
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Michael Bloomberg is reportedly considering running as a Democrat. I think Elisabeth Warren may give it a go too.

Of course there's Bernie Sanders.
I would love to see Bloomberg run - wish he would have given it more thought in 2016.
  #24  
Old 11-12-2018, 09:16 PM
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Klobuchar 2020
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Old 11-12-2018, 09:31 PM
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As an aside, if there's anyone left who hadn't heard of the 2012 HBO Movie "Game Change" that detailed the process by which Schmidt/McCain landed on Palin as the running-mate, it's beyond fascinating.
For me, the most interesting part of the book Game Change was about the White House meeting in late September to discuss the financial crisis. (It got little if any emphasis in the movie.) It wasn't televised, so irrelevant to the campaign, but the author depicts Obama taking the lead at that meeting, and McCain playing the fool.
  #26  
Old 11-12-2018, 09:31 PM
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Klobuchar 2020
Seconded. Though I reserve the right to change my mind during the primary.
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Old 11-12-2018, 09:35 PM
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No, it's a good thing that Ojeda would lose in the primaries. Voting for Trump, even if he regretted it afterwards, demonstrates sufficiently poor judgement that he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near public office. What else would he do, that he would regret later?
  #28  
Old 11-12-2018, 10:20 PM
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Is Hilary Clinton Officially In or Out?

I could swear I read *somewhere* (the internet!) that Hilary would NOT run in 2020. However, search results are contradictory. So what is the Straight Dope? Is Hilary In or Out for 2020?
  #29  
Old 11-12-2018, 10:26 PM
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I could swear I read *somewhere* (the internet!) that Hilary would NOT run in 2020. However, search results are contradictory. So what is the Straight Dope? Is Hilary In or Out for 2020?
She's not in, but as of now, only two Democrats are officially in: Delaney and Ojeda.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 11-12-2018 at 10:26 PM.
  #30  
Old 11-12-2018, 10:32 PM
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How often have the first to announce in open fields won nominations?
  #31  
Old 11-12-2018, 10:44 PM
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I could swear I read *somewhere* (the internet!) that Hilary would NOT run in 2020. However, search results are contradictory. So what is the Straight Dope? Is Hilary In or Out for 2020?
She herself has said she isn't running again.
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  #32  
Old 11-12-2018, 10:53 PM
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An interesting piece of Ojeda from FiveThirtyEight.

On why he voted for Trump:
Quote:
This is why I supported Donald Trump: Because I live in Logan County, West Virginia, and when the coal industry is down, everyone suffers. The coal miner has their car and everything they own for sale. The stores dont get no business, and they shut down. Even the funeral homes are doing nothing but cremations because no one can afford a funeral. Its horrible. I supported him because he says, Im going to put West Virginians back to work, and Im going to put those coal miners back to work.
On presidential voting history:
Quote:
Although Ojeda no longer supports the president, his voting for a Republican was nothing new. I dont think Ive ever voted for a Democrat for president [in a general election]...When he talked about national party politics, Ojeda could sound a bit like Bernie Sanders, whom Ojeda supported in the 2016 Democratic primary. The reason why the Democratic Party has fallen from grace in many cases is because they keep supporting the candidate that has the most money, but thats not the candidate who can relate to the people.
On how he's dealt with being a Democrat in a state that's now pretty conservative:
Quote:
Ojeda is certainly not your prototypical polished national politician, the kind who floats focus-group-tested lines. Hes intense when he talks politics, in part because hes had to deal with some particularly rough-and-tumble stuff during his short career in public office. When he ran in 2016, Ojeda was hospitalized after a brutal attack that he says was politically motivated; he was attacked from behind by a Logan County man and beaten with brass knuckles while putting a political bumper sticker on a car.

I asked Ojeda if he was worried about more attacks as a high-profile Democrat in a state now known for its Republican bent.

Come from the front, Ojeda said of his would-be foes. If you come from the front, youll shit your teeth.
He's definitely an interesting candidate. I agree that Hillary and the Democratic Party ignored a specific segment of the population in 2016 that ended up swinging the election for Trump, but it seems this guy appeals to that population while potentially ignoring everyone else.
  #33  
Old 11-12-2018, 11:22 PM
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Klobuchar 2020
Yeah, I think Amy Klobuchar is more likely than Swalwell, let alone the no-hopers this thread started with. Seriously, I have to laugh at a thread about a whole bunch of underqualified white men with so much white male privilege they think anyone, let alone the Democratic Party, will vote for some obscure businessman or state-level pol with little to no national profile.

If you ask me, Warren/Harris seems like a good ticket to actually win with. Harris/O'Rourke might be OK. Of course, you could try Warren/O'Rourke, but at that point you have to call it "Betsy/Beto."

Mike Bloomberg doesn't really have enough of a base, in my estimation. What's his slogan going to be? "Let's Gentrify America!"?

Last edited by foolsguinea; 11-12-2018 at 11:23 PM.
  #34  
Old 11-12-2018, 11:32 PM
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No, it's a good thing that Ojeda would lose in the primaries. Voting for Trump, even if he regretted it afterwards, demonstrates sufficiently poor judgement that he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near public office. What else would he do, that he would regret later?
Funny, people said the exact same thing about Hillary voting for the Iraq War, and they were labeled purity ponies & Bernie Bros.
  #35  
Old 11-12-2018, 11:48 PM
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Yeah, I think Amy Klobuchar is more likely than Swalwell, let alone the no-hopers this thread started with. Seriously, I have to laugh at a thread about a whole bunch of underqualified white men with so much white male privilege...
Hey now, just to clarify: Those guys I listed in the OP aren't my wish list. They're the actual candidates who have made their candidacy official. Klobuchar isn't a candidate, that's why she was left off of that specific list. As more people declare their candidacy, that list can be added to. That's not to say Klobuchar isn't worth discussing even before she makes a decision.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 11-12-2018 at 11:49 PM.
  #36  
Old 11-13-2018, 12:33 AM
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Usually, the candidates who announce this early are dark horses who are really running for Vice President on the ticket.
  #37  
Old 11-13-2018, 07:12 AM
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many of these little known people won't even be in the race when the primary voting starts. And that can even happen to well known folks. Last time Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal quit in 2015 because they had very little support and money. A guy like Schultz can stay in the race (if he joins) since money is not a factor to him.
  #38  
Old 11-13-2018, 09:31 AM
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Quote:
Quoth Happy Lendervedder:

On why he voted for Trump:
So, in other words, he's seen how damaging to the area dependence on coal is, and his preferred solution is to support coal. The way to get those coal miners back to work is to close down the coal mines completely, and replace them with actual good jobs.
  #39  
Old 11-13-2018, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by pjacks View Post
Richard Ojeda would win in a landslide. Too bad he has no chance in the primaries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
No, it's a good thing that Ojeda would lose in the primaries. Voting for Trump, even if he regretted it afterwards, demonstrates sufficiently poor judgement that he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near public office. What else would he do, that he would regret later?
The guy would flame out in a general election. I think he's just going for name recognition now-- to get his name in the media.

Last edited by John Mace; 11-13-2018 at 09:43 AM.
  #40  
Old 11-13-2018, 10:13 AM
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"Vanity candidacies" have long been a thing. Run for president. Be on TV, sell some books, get your positions into the national debate, etc. The problem is when they win.
  #41  
Old 11-13-2018, 10:38 AM
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I’m still convinced that Trump never wanted to win, he just wanted his own network to sell fascism and steaks to rubes.
  #42  
Old 11-13-2018, 11:01 AM
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I think he probably wanted to win after he started winning primaries when he realized he could win.
  #43  
Old 11-13-2018, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
So, in other words, he's seen how damaging to the area dependence on coal is, and his preferred solution is to support coal. The way to get those coal miners back to work is to close down the coal mines completely, and replace them with actual good jobs.
Also, he's never voted for a Democratic candidate for President in his life. That's a strange thing to be proud of. That, and believing any of the horseshit that comes out of Trump's mouth (saving coal jobs, yeah, that's the ticket). I've never heard of this guy before, but reading the quotes from him here certainly doesn't endear me to him in the slightest.
  #44  
Old 11-13-2018, 11:10 AM
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Important distinction: Trump didn't want to actually be the President. He wanted to win, because it was a competition. If he could figure out a way to win without being the President, he'd take it.

Of course, that's harder now, since being President is all that's keeping him winning the other game, the one whose object is staying out of prison.
  #45  
Old 11-13-2018, 12:04 PM
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The guy would flame out in a general election. I think he's just going for name recognition now-- to get his name in the media.
It can be pretty safely assumed that anyone declaring this far in advance is a crank candidate. I mean, the game basically starts now that the midterms are over and serious people are quietly gauging and building their support and resources.
  #46  
Old 11-13-2018, 12:19 PM
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BTW Hillary officially declared in April 2015.
  #47  
Old 11-13-2018, 12:27 PM
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BTW Hillary officially declared in April 2015.
And?
  #48  
Old 11-13-2018, 12:29 PM
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April is just an example of when a serious candidate officially got into the race last time. Which means that time frame could be when candidates get in next year.
  #49  
Old 11-13-2018, 12:39 PM
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Well, I suppose but no reason to choose that for a benchmark. Her other run officially started January 2007.



What I'm curious about is how the Dem rule changes on Superdelegates will affect the "silent primary". Endorsements still matter but will some be a little slower to announce them in deference to the new concept? Probably not, I guess.
  #50  
Old 11-13-2018, 01:02 PM
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For the Democrats to win in 2020 the key will be to put up a candidate who can bring Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania back to their side without losing any other states. Any candidate unsuited to do that will lose against Trump. I doubt Warren or Harris would have much appeal in those states.

And all the Beto fantasies are equally hopeless. Sure, he has charisma and he's handsome but he has very little experience and may well be as much of an empty suit as Bill McKay. Of course, McKay won so there is that I guess.
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