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Old 12-12-2018, 06:21 AM
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The Theresa May (UK PM) survival thread

Will she survive the vote of No Confidence? Place your bets, folks!

I hope she's toast but Tory MPs are generally a bunch of self serving, two-faced ... (contd. p97), so who knows?
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Old 12-12-2018, 06:41 AM
Gyrate Gyrate is offline
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Theresa May has survived this long on the basis that all the other alternatives - in any party - are far worse. That has not changed.

My prediction is that she'll be weakened even further but survive. On the other hand, given the recent trend of people doing incredibly stupid things that damage the country for incredibly stupid reasons, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised if Boris or JRM ended up as PM.
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Old 12-12-2018, 07:09 AM
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No. I think she is dogmeat.
(How about offering the job to Trump? He is half Scottish after all. And youd'd solve Americas problem as well).
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Old 12-12-2018, 07:20 AM
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I think she wins the vote, but with such a high number of votes against her that she is irretrievably weakened. Ordinarily, a leader might resign in the face of such opposition, even if it was technically sufficient to allow them to remain, but who knows now.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 12-12-2018 at 07:21 AM.
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Old 12-12-2018, 07:21 AM
penultima thule penultima thule is offline
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A quote from Macolm Turnbull in 2013 is topical if you substitute "May" for Rudd" and "Tory" for "Labor".

Quote:
“It’s quite interesting from a sort pathological point of view, that the hatred for Rudd among some quarters in the Labor Party is greater than the natural human instinct for survival,”
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Old 12-12-2018, 07:48 AM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
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I'm certainly an outsider and not all that conversant with UK politics so hopefully someone can enlighten me...

Isn't this whole thing about buyer's remorse among the UK electorate concerning Brexit? I don't know that May surviving AND going forward with Brexit are compatible political events. Is the sentiment among the MPs against a follow up referendum that strong?
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Old 12-12-2018, 07:50 AM
StrangeBird StrangeBird is offline
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Originally Posted by penultima thule View Post
A quote from Macolm Turnbull in 2013 is topical if you substitute "May" for Rudd" and "Tory" for "Labor".
It also works to describe his own ousting if you substitute "Turnbull" and "Liberal"
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Old 12-12-2018, 08:21 AM
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Isn't this whole thing about buyer's remorse among the UK electorate concerning Brexit?
No. It's about her lack of leadership during the Brexit process. The Brexit thread is elsewhere and I've stepped out of it.
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Old 12-12-2018, 08:36 AM
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Can someone explain what she was supposed to have done that she hasn't? I'm American, so make it brief and use small words.
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Old 12-12-2018, 08:54 AM
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No. It's about her lack of leadership during the Brexit process.
And her calling an early election despite repeatedly saying she wouldn't and then losing several seats, forcing a devil's bargain with the DUP who are a nasty bunch of paleoreligious troglodytes. And the mass resignations. And the general dishonesty and incompetence of her government overall, at a level that rises above (or perhaps sinks below) the usual political background noise.

May took on a poisoned chalice from Cameron and tried to make Brexit work. The problem was that what was promised by the Leavers (who all buggered off after the referendum) was never achievable, no one could agree what Brexit ought to look like, and the EU had no reason to give the UK anything it wanted (and many reasons not to). All May could do was bluff, bluster and spout meaningless phrases like "Brexit means Brexit". Her Brexit ministers were likewise at best ineffectual and at most downright incompetent (remember Davis lying about analyses done?). In the end all she could do was try to play a game of chicken by invoking Article 50, and all that has done is to accelerate the progression toward the cliff edge.

As I'm not a Tory my views on what she was "supposed to do" (or not do) probably aren't fair, but I'd settle for "not call an early election" and "not invoke Article 50 without a clear plan" as two things she could have done differently.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:12 AM
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And her calling an early election despite repeatedly saying she wouldn't and then losing several seats, forcing a devil's bargain with the DUP who are a nasty bunch of paleoreligious troglodytes. And the mass resignations. And the general dishonesty and incompetence of her government overall, at a level that rises above (or perhaps sinks below) the usual political background noise.
Yup. And behind all that is a lack of competent leadership.

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May took on a poisoned chalice from Cameron and tried to make Brexit work.
I disagree. It was a golden opportunity for a good leader. She could have been a new Atlee, forging a new United Kingdom. Instead, we've had fudge, fumble, and failure.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:16 AM
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Can someone explain what she was supposed to have done that she hasn't? I'm American, so make it brief and use small words.
She has failed to let the British have their cake and eat it too.
Or alternatively she has failed to make reality go away.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:23 AM
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Just a thought, but the vote is quite sudden and I wonder how many Tory MPs won't be able to cast their votes because they are unable to get there? I'm thinking in particular of Scottish MPs, who are likely to vote against May. But there must also be MPs who are abroad.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:25 AM
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A quote from Macolm Turnbull in 2013 is topical if you substitute "May" for Rudd" and "Tory" for "Labor".
This initially confused me because Amber Rudd is a Tory MP.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:29 AM
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The vote of confidence seems a bad way to run a country. Something happens, and they dissolve the government and have an election. Who is running the store in between?

When did Parliament take to ridiculing and laughing at the Prime Minister during session?
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:37 AM
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Yup. And behind all that is a lack of competent leadership.



I disagree. It was a golden opportunity for a good leader. She could have been a new Atlee, forging a new United Kingdom. Instead, we've had fudge, fumble, and failure.
No, Brexit was never going to work. Unfortunately she's too stubborn to give up on it, and too sensible to give in to the Hard Brexiteers in her party.

As much as I dislike her (and I agree she's a terrible leader), she is actually the best they've got, and has probably got the best possiible deal for leaving the EU.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:44 AM
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The vote of confidence seems a bad way to run a country. Something happens, and they dissolve the government and have an election. Who is running the store in between?
The Conservative Party is having a vote of confidence in May as their leader. This isn't a Vote of Confidence in the House of Commons which is a very different matter. If May loses the Tories will elect a new leader who will become Prime Minister. Think of it like Republican senators having a vote on whether or not to impeach Trump. If Trump goes, another Republican - Pence - steps in; America doesn't get to vote on another president.

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When did Parliament take to ridiculing and laughing at the Prime Minister during session?
That's nothing new.

Just to fight ignorance a little, once a General Election is called, MPs lose their seats immediately, but ministers do not lose their offices until they are replaced. This ensures continuity of government. When Brown called a General Election in 2010 he did not stop being Prime Minister until Cameron and Clegg had agreed their pact and Cameron had gone to the Queen.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:44 AM
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The vote of confidence seems a bad way to run a country. Something happens, and they dissolve the government and have an election. Who is running the store in between?
Why is it better to have a government that can't control the country and has no democratic legitimacy than to have no government? You need a government. You don't need a government all the time. The civil service are still there, the military are still there, the police are still there, the NHS is still there, changes in policy and legislation can wait a few weeks.

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When did Parliament take to ridiculing and laughing at the Prime Minister during session?
The chalcolithic.

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Can someone explain what she was supposed to have done that she hasn't? I'm American, so make it brief and use small words.
You'll get different answer from different people.

Pro-brexit people wanted a good deal, or failing that no deal at all. Like her slogan.

Anti-brexit people didn't want brexit at all.

Most people wanted a smooth transition.

The Tories wanted to stay in power.

She managed to do none of these things. Most recently she came home with a deal no-one wants, then tried to hide the facts about it and ultimately chicked out and refused to put it to a vote.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:49 AM
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No, Brexit was never going to work.
That remains to be seen. But the first requirement is a leader determined to make it work. And May fails on both counts.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:53 AM
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The Theresa May (UK PM) survival thread

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The vote of confidence seems a bad way to run a country. Something happens, and they dissolve the government and have an election. Who is running the store in between?



When did Parliament take to ridiculing and laughing at the Prime Minister during session?

I would say just the opposite. The vote of non-confidence is essential to clarify if the PM has the support of her party. That's essential for her to be able to govern. If she doesn't have her party's support, then the party needs to replace her right away.

This isn't a parliamentary vote of confidence, which could trigger an election. This is internal to the party. If they kick her out, they elect a new leader who becomes PM.

However, if things continue to go pear-shaped and Corbyn wins a vote of non-confidence in the Commons, that could result in a general. election.

The government stays in power during the election.

Prime Ministers have always been fair game during Question Period.

Last edited by Northern Piper; 12-12-2018 at 09:55 AM.
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Old 12-12-2018, 10:00 AM
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Prime Ministers have always been fair game during Question Period.
Did MPs do that to Churchill?
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Old 12-12-2018, 10:17 AM
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You'll get different answer from different people.

Pro-brexit people wanted a good deal, or failing that no deal at all. Like her slogan.

Anti-brexit people didn't want brexit at all.

Most people wanted a smooth transition.

The Tories wanted to stay in power.

She managed to do none of these things. Most recently she came home with a deal no-one wants, then tried to hide the facts about it and ultimately chicked out and refused to put it to a vote.
Pretty much spot on.
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Old 12-12-2018, 10:20 AM
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The Telegraph is reporting that 166 MPs have said that they'll back her. This is sufficient for her to survive.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:14 AM
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Did MPs do that to Churchill?
Yup!
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:53 AM
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Primarily for non-UK who might be thinking, Surely she can't be the best there is? There's really no-one better....?

Well, that idea has been tested:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...ed-theresa-may

"According to a YouGov survey, none of Theresa May's potential successors are more likely to make a good prime minister than a bad one......Not one successor is seen as capable of negotiating a better Brexit deal by a majority of Britons or Conservative voters."

BTW, this thread achieves a remarkably high score for fitness for purpose. If there was anything which currently could make me feel proud to be British, this might be it.

j
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:06 PM
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It's all very simple. Having had an election in 2016 to determine their choice for Party leader, the Tories are now taking into consideration all that has happened and all they have learned in the last two years and have decided that the best course of action is to have a second vote to see if their choice in 2016 was still the best one or whether they wish to pursue a different path.

A neat idea. I wonder if that could apply to any other circumstances?
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:24 PM
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The Theresa May (UK PM) survival thread

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Did MPs do that to Churchill?

Of course. The Commons can be quite rowdy at times, and the role of the Opposition is to continually challenge the PM and the government, probing for weak spots.

One of the standard entries in Hansard is:

"Some Hon. Members: 'Oh, oh!' "

It means that there's some barracking going on. If it gets to the point that it's difficult to hear the MP who is speaking, the Speaker will rise and politely remind the Hon. Members of the right of the Member to address the House, and the right of the House to hear the Member who is speaking.

Last edited by Northern Piper; 12-12-2018 at 12:25 PM.
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:30 PM
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I'm not a Conservative, never voted for them in my life, but I do remember talking to my friend Robin about Theresa May on the day the Conservative party elected her leader (and also PM, as the Conservatives were in power). I'm sure I'll learn to loath her, I said, but I just want to be able to remember the intense feeling of relief that I feel right now.

Nothing new to report, really. I have learned to loath her* and I still feel relieved that she was elected.

She will win tonight. For which, a small Thank God.

j

* - in particular for her role in the Windrush Scandal

Last edited by Treppenwitz; 12-12-2018 at 12:32 PM. Reason: clarity (some, at least)
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Old 12-12-2018, 12:56 PM
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British politics has always been something of a political bearpit with MPs often baying for the head of a Minister or better still a Prime Minister over some issue. Normally the party in power has enough MPs to pass legislation. Usually they have more MPs that the other parties combined.

But in the past few elections, the numbers have not worked out that well and the party with the most MPs has to rely on smaller parties to support them voting for important pieces of legislation. This is a 'coalition' politics, which is fairly standard in the European countries, but not so much in the UK first past the post electoral system.

May heads a government without an overall majority and she relies the small Northern Irish Ulster Unionist party for support. Moreover the Brexit question is very divisive within her party with several factions with conflicting interpretations of what it actually means.

With a small majority a government can usually expect some dissent from within its own ranks. But over this issue they are fighting like ferrets in a sack. Brexit carries with it a whole host of political baggage regarding sovereignty, immigration, international trade and international relations dating from the WW2.

UK Prime Ministers have to be smart political operators and devise ways of keeping support and delivering some kind of political programme.

May leads a weak, divided party and her political program has only one aim: to deliver Brexit.

Despite trying very hard, she has not managed to agree a plan for leaving the EU that satisfies the factions within her own party. Indeed the Labour party is also divided and the British voters are also in several minds about what it means and how to go about it.

No-one told the voters that undoing 40 years of trading agreements was going to be difficult. But the Referendum invested the issue with a powerful political imperative to deliver it.

The fact is that it is going to be too difficult and too expensive, but no politician seems to have the guts to say this out loud lest it offend the voters.

Whether any other politician can do a better job than May is open to question. For ambitious politicians this is a dilemma. To have a political career defined by success in completing this hopeless task is not the stuff of historical legend.

The country urgently needs to turn away from this divisive issue and get on with normal politics arguing about the usual stuff: Education, Healthcare, Taxes - not this international trade treaty that few people really understand.

We will find out in couple of hours if May has survived her Parties internal no-confidence vote. She will win it, but it is a very clear measure of her authority in her party. Depending on how much support she has been able to muster will define whether she will be able to continue as party leader.

Support for her as PM is a vote on the support she has within her party for the Brexit Withdrawal agreement.
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Old 12-12-2018, 01:39 PM
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Someone told me it was like turkeys voting for Christmas.
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Old 12-12-2018, 03:37 PM
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I would vote no-confidence.

I suppose we will have our results in an hour or two.
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Old 12-12-2018, 03:40 PM
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I would vote no-confidence.

I suppose we will have our results in an hour or two.
21:00 GMT, although why it takes an hour to count 317 bits of paper I don't know.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:03 PM
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21:00 GMT, although why it takes an hour to count 317 bits of paper I don't know.
Does it take that long to get them all to shut up and vote?
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:04 PM
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She wins 200 - 117. What that means politically is anyone's guess.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:06 PM
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Well, I would have lost quite a bit on that bet. A general election would have served as a second referendum.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:26 PM
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F***.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:41 PM
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Well, I would have lost quite a bit on that bet. A general election would have served as a second referendum.
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The Conservative Party is having a vote of confidence in May as their leader. This isn't a Vote of Confidence in the House of Commons which is a very different matter. If May loses the Tories will elect a new leader who will become Prime Minister...
(Bolding mine)

So what would the mechanism be to compel a vote of confidence in the Commons?
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:50 PM
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(Bolding mine)

So what would the mechanism be to compel a vote of confidence in the Commons?
The Leader of the Opposition (Jeremy Corbyn for Labour, at the moment) or the Government itself (somewhat less likely, I feel) moves a motion of confidence. If either of those two do it, then there will be a vote. Smaller opposition parties can try, but it's less likely to get very far.

Last edited by Baron Greenback; 12-12-2018 at 04:50 PM.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:55 PM
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So what would the mechanism be to compel a vote of confidence in the Commons?
In theory, any MP can submit a motion of confidence in the Commons at any time. It just isn't normally done because the result is usually a foregone conclusion and Parliamentary time is limited and precious.

Wikipedia has an article here.

What happens after a vote of No Confidence is successful is detailed in the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. Simplified, there's a period of two weeks in which someone can form a government. If that fails, Parliament is prorogued and a General Election is called.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:57 PM
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Well, this is another vote I will have to respect, even if I don't like it.
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Old 12-12-2018, 05:20 PM
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She wins 200 - 117. What that means politically is anyone's guess.
It was less than a month ago the Rees-Mogg and others tried to get a vote of confidence voted on--but they couldn't get the 48 votes needed. Now they have 117 no votes--about 70 more negative reactions than then. So I think the mood is turning rapidly against her.
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Old 12-12-2018, 05:35 PM
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The trouble is that the Tory party rules say that May cannot be subject to another vote for a year.
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Old 12-12-2018, 05:51 PM
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It was less than a month ago the Rees-Mogg and others tried to get a vote of confidence voted on--but they couldn't get the 48 votes needed. Now they have 117 no votes--about 70 more negative reactions than then. So I think the mood is turning rapidly against her.
Yeah. It doesn't bode well for getting the Withdrawal Agreement approved, like, ever. Interesting times.
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Old 12-12-2018, 06:53 PM
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The trouble is that the Tory party rules say that May cannot be subject to another vote for a year.
That doen't apply to a confidence vote in the House (which this was not). Which could still happen.

Refusal to pass the Budget amounts to the same as a confidence vote.
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Old 12-12-2018, 06:54 PM
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Excellent point.
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Old 12-12-2018, 08:28 PM
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Just a thought, but the vote is quite sudden and I wonder how many Tory MPs won't be able to cast their votes because they are unable to get there? I'm thinking in particular of Scottish MPs, who are likely to vote against May. But there must also be MPs who are abroad.
Parliament is sitting, and furthermore was scheduled to be holding a vote of huge significance round about now. So any MP who isn'tg near death, or detained on very important business, will be around.

But there are arrangements for MPs who aren't physically present to vote by proxy; they need to communicate with the Chairman of the 1922 Committee to nominate another MP to vote by proxy on their behalf.

As we now know, 317 votes were cast. That's the entire Tory membership of the House of Commons, I think.
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:11 PM
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I think yall need a new election on Brexit and general...… and not elect some of the same clowns ……..
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:13 PM
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I think yall need a new election on Brexit and general... and not elect some of the same clowns ..

Thanks for these words of wisdom from a clearly well-informed person who has given the matter serious thought.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:59 PM
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159 votes were needed to throw her out. They got 117. She was saved by 42 votes.
This is at least 50 more votes than what ERG has.
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:31 AM
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159 votes were needed to throw her out. They got 117. She was saved by 42 votes.
This is at least 50 more votes than what ERG has.
Yes but, hey, it's a bigger majority than Brexit got. Or Trump.

A win's a win. The price of winning was a fairly strong signal that she won't be around to lead the party into the next election (due in 2022). So I think she's going to interpret this as a mandate to Bring Brexit Home. And her capacity to do so is now slightly strengthened, since she is insulated from a direct challenge for the next 12 months.

Sure, she could still fail to get her deal through Parliament. But, if we rule out one of the three possible ends to this story (Brexit on the terms of May's deal) there are only two possible endings left - no-deal Brexit, or cancellation of Brexit. And I don't think there's a majority for no-deal Brexit either in Parliament or in the country.
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