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Old 01-08-2019, 08:21 PM
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Trump speech live 01/08/2019: follow-along thread.

Trump will give a speech tonight from the Oval Office, the first of his presidency. He's expected to make his case for his border wall. Considering he's been talking about little else for several months, I'm curious what, if anything, he'll have to say that hasn't been said / tweeted a zillion times already.

This thread is for following the speech, fact-checking, pointing & laughing, and general discussion. T-minus 40 minutes to showtime.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:23 PM
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Here's a link to a live stream of the speech courtesy of the Washington Post.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:34 PM
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For those that want to get an early start on their "fact checking", or are just interested in some background information, President Trump sent this to Congress a few days ago.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:55 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
For those that want to get an early start on their "fact checking", or are just interested in some background information, President Trump sent this to Congress a few days ago.
Quote:
The most pressing legal changes are as follows:

Terminate the Flores Settlement Agreement—which is preventing families from being held together through removal; and
Amend the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA), to allow for the safe and humane return of illegally-smuggled minors back to their families in their home countries.
Trump Poppycock as the goal is to justify the detention of families for an undefined amount of time.

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/174845...nt-immigration
Quote:
Getting rid of Flores means indefinite family detention

It’s not at all clear that Trump can, legally, issue an executive order that would override the Flores settlement. That’s why analysts are assuming that any order Trump issues to keep families together in DHS custody will be challenged by a lawsuit and may get thwarted.

If DHS somehow manages to craft an executive order that evades that issue, or if Congress passes any of the suite of Republican bills that purport to end family separation by expanding family detention, it will mean one of two things.

Either the Trump administration will start keeping families in detention for as long as it takes to fully adjudicate their asylum cases — which can take months or years — or it will need to ram them through an “expedited” legal process to minimize their time in detention.

President Obama tried the latter in 2014. It went horrifically. Pro bono lawyers who went to family detention facilities (which were flung together in a matter of weeks) reported that it was all but impossible for families to get due process for their asylum claims.

The former is what families are still going through at the Pennsylvania facility. The long-term detention of immigrant children raises some of the same concerns that keeping them in custody without their parents does, in terms of long-term trauma. Bright lights in the Burks facility reportedly keep children from sleeping well, for example — and they can be disciplined if they try to climb into a parent’s bed for comfort.

Furthermore, getting rid of the Flores settlement entirely wouldn’t just get rid of the mandate to release children; it would also get rid of the requirements for what conditions children must be held in. In other words, the legal standards that undergird the Office of Refugee Resettlement facilities — standards that Trump administration officials brag are among the highest in the world — would be wiped away.

Depending on what replaced Flores, it’s possible that ICE could simply use existing adult detention facilities to herd children into as well.

The Trump administration could hold itself to higher standards. But for that matter, it could also find an alternative to detaining immigrant families that still allowed the government to ensure they showed up in court. It does not appear inclined to do so.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 01-08-2019 at 08:56 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:03 PM
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And we're off
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:03 PM
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"Illegal migration".

That's new.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:03 PM
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I won't watch, I'll just wait till he's done and the adult rebuttal begins.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:04 PM
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He's a good reader.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:04 PM
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In FY2017 and FY2018, ICE officers arrested approximately 235,000 aliens on various criminal charges or convictions within the interior of the United States—including roughly 100,000 for assault, 30,000 for sex crimes, and 4,000 for homicides.
What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:07 PM
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What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
You seriously think it's even worth a fact check?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:10 PM
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What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
What are the comparable stats for American citizens in the same time period?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:10 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
As is also usual for Trump, it is half a fact with the intent to mislead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d2dd727f6530
Quote:
Another study, published in March in the journal Criminology, looked at population-level crime rates: Do places with higher percentages of undocumented immigrants have higher rates of crime? The answer, as the chart above shows, is a resounding no.

States with larger shares of undocumented immigrants tended to have lower crime rates than states with smaller shares in the years 1990 through 2014. "Increases in the undocumented immigrant population within states are associated with significant decreases in the prevalence of violence," authors Michael T. Light and Ty Miller found.

That's just a simple correlation, of course, and it's well documented that many factors beyond immigration can affect the crime rate. So Light and Miller ran a number of statistical analyses to more clearly isolate the effects of illegal immigration from those other factors. Among other things, they find that the relationship between high levels of illegal immigration and low levels of crime persists even after controlling for various economic and demographic factors such as age, urbanization, labor market conditions and incarceration rates.

All told, Light and Miller sliced the data 57 ways to see whether there was anything they missed, but not one of their analyses showed any positive relationship between illegal immigration and crime. They concluded that not only does illegal immigration not increase crime, but it may actually contribute to the drop in overall crime rates observed in the United States in recent decades.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:10 PM
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MS-13. There's a shot.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:11 PM
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Wow, immigrants sure sound like bloodthirsty lunatics!
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:12 PM
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What a maroon.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:12 PM
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At least he didn't declare a National Thing or whatever it's called. There's that.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:13 PM
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The NY Times is fact checking while the speech is going on:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/u...mp-speech.html
Quote:
Here’s what the president said, and how it stacks up against the facts.

“Every week 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90 percent of which flows across our southern border.”

This needs context.

Most heroin smuggled into the United States does come through the southwest border, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration’s latest National Drug Assessment report.

But most fentanyl enters the United States from packages mailed directly from China through traditional ports of entry, according to the report, and through Canada from China. A lower potency, lower-cost grade of fentanyl is also smuggled across the southwest border from Mexico. The fentanyl directly from China is far more lucrative for sellers because of its higher purity. The fentanyl sent through conventional mail packages are proven difficult for law enforcement to detect. Fentanyl coming from Mexico is often hidden in automobile compartments, much like conventional drug smuggling.

The president’s opioids commission reported last November noted, “We are losing this fight predominately through China.”
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:14 PM
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At least he didn't declare a National Thing or whatever it's called. There's that.
Yeah. This whole thing was nothing more than a slightly more coherent version of his recent tweets.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:14 PM
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Has he forgotten that we have him on tape saying "I'll own the shutdown?"

Last edited by silenus; 01-08-2019 at 09:14 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:14 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:16 PM
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Another check from the NY Times:

Quote:
“The wall will also be paid for, indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico.”

False.

First, the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, known as the United States-Canada-Mexico-Agreement, has yet to pass in Congress. Any economic benefits from the agreement, if it passes, will likely come in the form of lower tariffs for American companies or higher wages for American workers.

This is different than Mr. Trump’s campaign promise that Mexico would finance the wall.

—Alan Rappeport

Last edited by GIGObuster; 01-08-2019 at 09:16 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:16 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
I imagine Trump was dreaming last night of Obrador coming on-screen with a jumbo check straight out of Publisher's Clearing House.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:19 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
In pesos.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:20 PM
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Mercifully short, thank God.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:20 PM
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At least he didn't declare a National Thing or whatever it's called. There's that.
That comes on Friday.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:21 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
Did you see the rebuttal? Pelosi and Schumer both taunted him about Mexico (not) paying.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:45 PM
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What's up with this bizarre claim he pulled out of his ass (maybe the smell is why he's sniffing so much) that the Democrats asked him to change the design from concrete to steel?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:48 PM
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What's up with this bizarre claim he pulled out of his ass (maybe the smell is why he's sniffing so much) that the Democrats asked him to change the design from concrete to steel?
IKR, where in hell did that come from? Maybe previous presidents told him that, too.

Last edited by Beckdawrek; 01-08-2019 at 09:48 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:54 PM
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I just got a news alert from the New York Times that said "President Trump's address on border security was at times misleading".

I suppose they used the "at times" qualifier because it was only misleading during those times his mouth was actually open?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:56 PM
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IKR, where in hell did that come ftom? Maybe previous presidents told him that, too.
The previous presidents hanging on the walls, maybe.


Anyhoo, a few highlights from the Washington Post fact check:

Quote:
"The wall will also be paid for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico."

This is a Four-Pinocchio claim.
(Actually, it's two claims at that mendacity level: the four-Pinocchio (which I think now qualifies as a Bottomless Pinocchio now that the Post found it necessary to expand the scale for Trump) that Mexico was paying for the wall and the (dunno if formally rated) claim that NAFTA Version 1.001a is a "new trade deal" in any meaningful sense.)

Quote:
"Every week, 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90% of which floods across from our southern border."

But while 90 percent of the heroin sold in the United States comes from Mexico, virtually all of it comes through legal points of entry.... Trump’s repeated claim that the wall would stop drug trafficking is another Bottomless Pinocchio claim.
Quote:
There is no new crisis at the border

Apprehensions of people trying to cross the southern border peaked most recently at 1.6 million in 2000 and have been in decline since, partly because of technology upgrades, tougher penalties post-9/11, a decline in migration rates from Mexico and a sharp rise in the number of Border Patrol officers....
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Last edited by Steve MB; 01-08-2019 at 09:57 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:02 PM
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I’m fucking livid about this “imagine if it were your child” shit (in regards to people being killed by illegal immigrants). Fucking livid. “Congress must act”. What about the hundreds of American children who are killed by Americans with guns? Who was calling for Congress to act on that?

Also the whole “drugs coming over the border are killing Americans.” So the answer is a wall. But guns in America killing Americans? “Criminals will get guns anyway.”

Fuck all of this. Suck fucking twisted “morality.”
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:14 PM
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Fact-checking even on Fox News....
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:20 PM
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My god. Finally, even on Fox "News," someone said the emperor has no clothes.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:21 PM
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My god. Finally, even on Fox "News," someone said the emperor has no clothes.
Not only that, he's hung like a hamster.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:22 PM
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Twitter thread about his head being green-screened into the Oval Office.

https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/stat...424453125?s=19
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:23 PM
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Not only that, he's hung like a hamster.
That's the tiniest toadstool I've ever seen!!
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:38 PM
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I guess it must have been a pretty decent speech if the criticism has already regressed to complaints about his genitals.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:42 PM
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No, we first have to talk about his hair. Who pouffed that mess up tonight. I was laughing audibly. I cannot take the man seriously. I swear to God if he came on tv and said giant aliens had landed on the Whitehouse lawn I'd be laughing so hard I would miss it. Hes a joke.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:46 PM
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I’m fucking livid about this “imagine if it were your child” shit (in regards to people being killed by illegal immigrants). Fucking livid. “Congress must act”. What about the hundreds of American children who are killed by Americans with guns? Who was calling for Congress to act on that?

Also the whole “drugs coming over the border are killing Americans.” So the answer is a wall. But guns in America killing Americans? “Criminals will get guns anyway.”

Fuck all of this. Suck fucking twisted “morality.”
This is a meme worthy post right here.

Well said.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:48 PM
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I guess it must have been a pretty decent speech if the criticism has already regressed to complaints about his genitals.
Whad'ja think of the rebuttal?
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:49 PM
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I guess it must have been a pretty decent speech if the criticism has already regressed to complaints about his genitals.
Didja send your five dollars yet?
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:50 PM
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I guess it must have been a pretty decent speech if the criticism has already regressed to complaints about his genitals.
We've already discussed his shortcomings. You must have ignored it.

And it's not complaints. It's mockery.

Last edited by running coach; 01-08-2019 at 10:50 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:51 PM
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I guess it must have been a pretty decent speech if the criticism has already regressed to complaints about his genitals.
Do you feel the need to debate with Flat Earthers?

It's kind of like that.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:53 PM
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I guess it must have been a pretty decent speech if the criticism has already regressed to complaints about his genitals.
And, as usual, your guess would be wrong.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:58 PM
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I guess it must have been a pretty decent speech if the criticism has already regressed to complaints about his genitals.
I'd say this subthread of commentary is about 30% serious, 70% mock.
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  #46  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:00 PM
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That was some low-energy shit. What the fuck - all this sturm and drang culminating in Mr Sniffles whining for 10 minutes about border security and claiming, bizarrely, that the Dems negotiated him into steel slats? That's it?

Why are we talking about his genitals, HD? Because his speech was a big nothing. Didn't help his cause, hurt it even by his lack of enthusiasm for the subject and the blundering way in which we got here.

Last edited by JohnT; 01-08-2019 at 11:00 PM.
  #47  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:04 PM
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I’m fucking livid about this “imagine if it were your child” shit (in regards to people being killed by illegal immigrants). Fucking livid. “Congress must act”. What about the hundreds of American children who are killed by Americans with guns? Who was calling for Congress to act on that?

Also the whole “drugs coming over the border are killing Americans.” So the answer is a wall. But guns in America killing Americans? “Criminals will get guns anyway.”

Fuck all of this. Suck fucking twisted “morality.”

The fact that it's a Constitutionally-protected right makes it a bit different than immigration policy.

Last edited by Dacien; 01-08-2019 at 11:06 PM.
  #48  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:09 PM
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Trump apparently made off-the-record comments to some news folks that he really didn't want to make this speech, and really doesn't want to go visit the border, but is only doing it because his advisers have told him it's a good idea. From a NYT article this evening:

Quote:
Yet privately, Mr. Trump dismissed his own new strategy as pointless. In an off-the-record lunch with television anchors hours before the address, he made clear in blunt terms that he was not inclined to give the speech or go to Texas, but was talked into it by advisers, according to two people briefed on the discussion who asked not to be identified sharing details.

“It’s not going to change a damn thing, but I’m still doing it,” Mr. Trump said of the border visit, according to one of the people, who was in the room. The trip was just a photo opportunity, he said. “But,” he added, gesturing at his communications aides, Bill Shine, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Kellyanne Conway, “these people behind you say it’s worth it.”
  #49  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:09 PM
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The fact that it's a Constitutionally-protected right makes it a bit different than immigration policy.
Oh don't worry, the next Democratic president will be certain to declare a national emergency before he takes all the guns. It will be all nice and legal.
  #50  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:11 PM
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That was some low-energy shit. What the fuck - all this sturm and drang culminating in Mr Sniffles whining for 10 minutes about border security and claiming, bizarrely, that the Dems negotiated him into steel slats? That's it?

<snip>
On the bright side, the networks won't fall for it again. He took his big shot, wasted their (and our) time, interrupted regularly-scheduled programming and accomplished nothing.

It was such an obvious abuse of his office he should be ashamed down to his tiny tadger. He won't be, of course. But he should.
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