View Poll Results: How long will the US government shutdown last?
Less than 1 week 3 2.83%
1 week to 1 month 28 26.42%
1 to 2 months 44 41.51%
2 to 6 months 22 20.75%
6 months to 1 year 3 2.83%
1 to 2 years 5 4.72%
2 years or more 1 0.94%
Voters: 106. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 01-09-2019, 03:16 PM
FlikTheBlue FlikTheBlue is offline
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How long do you think the US government shutdown will last?

Itís hard to believe thereís not a thread on this yet. Iím giving seven options, of which Iíve chosen 2 to 6 months. I think this shutdown will last several months because Trump is too stubborn to give in and it will probably take that long for enough Republicans to change their minds to be able to overcome a veto. What do you all think?
  #2  
Old 01-09-2019, 03:25 PM
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2-6 months was my guess. Longer than 6 is a definite possibility, but I'm counting on people getting really pissed off before the 6 month mark.
  #3  
Old 01-09-2019, 03:28 PM
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It's barely more than a wild guess (it's as impossible to predict what Trump will do as it is a toddler), but I think it may only go on another week or two, and Trump will declare a (fake) national emergency and claim victory.
  #4  
Old 01-09-2019, 04:17 PM
Ashtura Ashtura is offline
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This is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" type thing for Trump. If he doesn't make a strong push for the wall, his base won't show up in 2020 and he'll lose. If the government is shut down till 2020, he'll lose too for the chaos that will cause.

I predict it will be over in a couple weeks from now. He probably wants to see what the poll numbers are for his televised speech.

He's handled this idiotically. This all should have been negotiated behind closed doors with no publicized numbers. He has no where to go really.
  #5  
Old 01-09-2019, 04:21 PM
Chisquirrel Chisquirrel is offline
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When do SNAP benefits run out? People get angry when their kids are hungry.
  #6  
Old 01-09-2019, 04:32 PM
FlikTheBlue FlikTheBlue is offline
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Originally Posted by Ashtura View Post
This is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" type thing for Trump. If he doesn't make a strong push for the wall, his base won't show up in 2020 and he'll lose. If the government is shut down till 2020, he'll lose too for the chaos that will cause.

I predict it will be over in a couple weeks from now. He probably wants to see what the poll numbers are for his televised speech.

He's handled this idiotically. This all should have been negotiated behind closed doors with no publicized numbers. He has no where to go really.
One of the things I've learned about Trump is that he always picks "damned if you do." "Damned if you don't" seems like a foreign concept to him, which is why I think he isn't going to back down unless he can present the outcome as a win. Unfortunately in this case he's painted himself into a corner and the only win is getting a wall. If things get really bad, I can see the Democrats caving on this and approving Trump's 5 billion dollar wall, but I don't see Trump giving in. A big part of how I think this will go down is the question of who will the public will blame more, Republicans or Democrats? I have no idea what the answer to that question will end up being.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 01-09-2019 at 04:33 PM.
  #7  
Old 01-09-2019, 05:08 PM
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I think it'll take somewhere between 1 and 2 months before enough people feel enough hurt to convince enough senators to pass a bill and override a veto. A competent President, of course, would see this coming, and negotiate some sort of compromise before it got to that point. But Trump is so invested in the idea of "all or nothing" that what he's going to get is nothing.
  #8  
Old 01-09-2019, 05:40 PM
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I voted 1 to 2 months because I think the Dems will cave in, approve some number that looks good to Orangeman (but never actually goes to any wall) and the shit-stained base gets to blame Democrats for another six months.
  #9  
Old 01-09-2019, 06:05 PM
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It's been a few weeks now, so I see a month for sure. Dems might cave, but not until prominent Republicans (Trump never) change the plan. It's creeping in now... "What 2000 miles of wall? No one is asking for that!"
  #10  
Old 01-09-2019, 06:06 PM
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My guess is about a week before a critical mass of air traffic controllers and TSA boarding-gate staffers call in sick or just outright quit in order to work at jobs that actually pay the bills. At that point, business operations will be disrupted to the point where major donors read the riot act to the Turtle and force him to emerge from his shell and fix the mess, saving face for himself and Sponge Blob Golf Pants as best he can.
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  #11  
Old 01-09-2019, 06:34 PM
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I give it about two more weeks. Federal employees will lose one paycheck on Friday. As the second pay period looms, Republicans will cave. Losing two paychecks will turn Republicans into Democrats.
  #12  
Old 01-09-2019, 06:44 PM
The_Peyote_Coyote The_Peyote_Coyote is offline
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I'm the pessimist who voted for 1-2 years. As I've posted before, the Orange Butt Boil HAS to get that wall built. If he doesn't, so much of his base will desert him that the GOP will no longer protect him and he's going down.
  #13  
Old 01-09-2019, 09:53 PM
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It'll be the longest shutdown ever. I promise.

Trump and the Republitards are nihilist. They don't even have federal workers in their districts - well maybe the cowardly, spineless pricks we call "independents."

Seriously, independents and moderates can go to hell. There is no place for you. You're either on the side of heaven, or hell. Your choice, gonadless wimps.
  #14  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:03 PM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
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I voted 1 week to 1 month. We're already seeing quiet comments to The Washington Post from several R Senators talking about how something needs to be done. Gardner, Collins, Murkowski and such are feeling some electoral pressure. They can already hear the ads during their next campaigns.
  #15  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:07 PM
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When do SNAP benefits run out? People get angry when their kids are hungry.
Unfortunately, people with hungry kids don't matter to Republicans.

Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
They don't even have federal workers in their districts - well maybe the cowardly, spineless pricks we call "independents."
I don't buy that. Every district has federal workers. Most national parks are in rural red areas.

It will be another 2-3 weeks. The only way out is for the moron to declare a national emergency and let the courts hold up his plan to use the military to build that monument to himself.
  #16  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:19 PM
aceplace57 aceplace57 is online now
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I think some House Democrats and Republicans will get worried enough to force Pelosi to make some kind of compromise.

The House seats are always vulnerable and this shutdown will get the newest members very nervous.

The six year Senate seats are more secure. We'll still see some heat from vulnerable Democrats and Republicans.

Seems impossible for the shutdown to last more than another 10 days.

Too many people will quit if they aren't paid.

Last edited by aceplace57; 01-09-2019 at 10:21 PM.
  #17  
Old 01-09-2019, 11:00 PM
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Until Trump is impeached, maybe?

This will probably be over pretty soon, though. I expect it to be measured in weeks not months. McConnell may be a psychopath, but one of two things is likely to happen, and before February: Trump will get sick of this; or enough of the caucus will decide they don't want their next year to be the shutdown war, nor Trump's Reichstag fire.

I don't think this will reach past nine weeks, but the longer it goes, the more we have to look out for violent response by the disgruntled. Disgruntled federal workers are dangerous. If it went half a year, like a few of you are saying, the GOP caucus in the Senate could be culled to a minority, between assassinations, resignations, and defections to the Dems.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 01-09-2019 at 11:00 PM.
  #18  
Old 01-09-2019, 11:05 PM
Ashtura Ashtura is offline
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Trump and the Republitards are nihilist. They don't even have federal workers in their districts - well maybe the cowardly, spineless pricks we call "independents."

Seriously, independents and moderates can go to hell. There is no place for you. You're either on the side of heaven, or hell. Your choice, gonadless wimps.
Someone give this person a megaphone. Better yet, a position as lead speech writer for Alexandra Ocasio Cortez.
  #19  
Old 01-10-2019, 12:16 AM
Dag Otto Dag Otto is online now
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It will be another 2-3 weeks. The only way out is for the moron to declare a national emergency and let the courts hold up his plan to use the military to build that monument to himself.
I think he's damned if he does there also. Those funds would have to come from reprogrammed military construction projects. And at $5 billion, that's a lot of cancelled projects. These projects are badly needed as part of his "building up the military" plans, so he just opens up himself to justifiable criticism if he cancels them for his wall. The fool has put himself in a box, sealed it up, and somehow managed to kick it into the river. Plus he filled it with rocks before he got in. At some point, Republican senators will decide that they no longer need to be attached to the box.
  #20  
Old 01-10-2019, 01:04 AM
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I give it about two more weeks. Federal employees will lose one paycheck on Friday. As the second pay period looms, Republicans will cave. Losing two paychecks will turn Republicans into Democrats.
Yep, I went with 1 week to 1 month. By the time Federal employees approach the loss of a second paycheck shit will start getting ugly really fast.

When it starts to take 2-3 hours to get through security at every airport, the pressure will become unbearable for the GOP toadies in the Senate.

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 01-10-2019 at 01:04 AM.
  #21  
Old 01-10-2019, 01:33 AM
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People who are predicting periods of months or years should be aware how big a deal a shutdown is. (And, yes, the people who need to be made aware include Donald Trump.)

Most shutdowns have lasted a day. The longest one in American history lasted twenty-six days and five of those were only a partial shutdown. The current shutdown has lasted twenty days.

If the government stays shut down long enough, it will start being impossible to start the government up again. And a country without a government is a country with pretty serious problems.
  #22  
Old 01-10-2019, 01:53 AM
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A matter of days. I smell tipping point. Republican Senators are looking for the exits, and ! Susan Collins is concerned! Well, there you have it......
  #23  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:11 AM
The_Peyote_Coyote The_Peyote_Coyote is offline
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I'm aware it's a big deal, Little Nemo, but we're talking about the Orange Butt Boil, not a normal politician. Hell, we're not even talking about a normal human being.
  #24  
Old 01-10-2019, 08:57 AM
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To understand how it will play out, one must understand how we got here:

Quote:
Trump: We're gonna build a wall, and Mexico will pay for it!
Democrats: Yeah, sure, good luck with that....
Trump: Give me billions of taxpayer dollars to pay for it.
Democrats: No. Hey, wasn't Mexico--
Trump: I want a wall!
Democrats: What do we get?
Trump: Eff you, that's what!
Democrats: Then no.
Trump: I WANNA WALL!! GIMME A WALL!!!
Democrats: (*sigh*) How about we give you the wall in exchange for legalizing DACA recipients?
Trump: NO!
Democrats: Then no deal.
Trump: Then I'll shut down the government and blame myself for it!
Democrats: Weird. And ill-advised. But you do you, I guess.
Trump: THE SHUTDOWN IS YOUR FAULT NOW!
Democrats: WTF??
...er, never mind. Trying to understand how we got here can only lead to madness and despair.
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  #25  
Old 01-10-2019, 09:02 AM
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I voted 1 week-1 month. As every day goes by, more and more checks will fail to issue - not just for pay - and the outrage - and costs - will be made clearer and clearer.

Yesterday heard on the radio about the impact on FEMA efforts in CA districts recovering from the recent fires - districts that had strongly voted Trump. He might be too stupid to realize it, but every day more and more R congresscritters will see it as the losing game it is.
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  #26  
Old 01-10-2019, 09:08 AM
aceplace57 aceplace57 is online now
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Quote:
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To understand how it will play out, one must understand how we got here:



...er, never mind. Trying to understand how we got here can only lead to madness and despair.
It's actually quite simple.

Trump's presidency is at stake. He either gets some concessions for the wall or he loses his base. Stick a fork in him, he's done. Running in 2020 won't be an option. His final two years will be as a caretaker until the election.

Given that situation, Trump has nothing to lose by fighting to the bitter end.

The only question is which direction does he take? Drag out the shutdown until the Republican leadership turn on him? Or trigger a Constitutional crisis by declaring a National Emergency which the Democrats will fight? That's uncharted water and no one knows how that will end.

This madness is over a tiny fraction of the US budget. 5 billion isn't much compared to what this shutdown is costing 800,000 people.
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/68364...count-the-ways

Last edited by aceplace57; 01-10-2019 at 09:13 AM.
  #27  
Old 01-10-2019, 09:12 AM
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Today is the 20th day of the shutdown, so for it to last a month or less, it will have to be resolved in the next 11 days.

That could happen, but I'm not expecting it.

Somebody's gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months.
  #28  
Old 01-10-2019, 09:31 AM
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Steve MB, that is an excellent summary.
  #29  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:02 AM
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Today is the 20th day of the shutdown, so for it to last a month or less, it will have to be resolved in the next 11 days.

That could happen, but I'm not expecting it.

Somebody's gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months.
Since the first poll option is "Less than 1 week," and the poll was posted yesterday (more than a week after the shutdown began), I assumed the poll referred to how much longer the shutdown will last.

I therefore picked "1 week to 1 month."
  #30  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:04 AM
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Today is the 20th day of the shutdown, so for it to last a month or less, it will have to be resolved in the next 11 days.

That could happen, but I'm not expecting it.

Somebody's gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months.
That's my thinking, and how I voted.
  #31  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:09 AM
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I’m the optimist who voted for 1-2 years. Hopefully the unpaid feds will stop showing up so society can expand to fill the void with hard workers and smart entrepreneurs. There will be temporary disruptions, but that’s ok. It’s good in the long run for young people that government employment is not viewed as a stable paycheck for the slackers and risk-averse.

I wish the unpaid workers well but can’t they take a hint already? You’re working for free? The taxpayers aren’t worried about supporting you, move on with your life, bud. It’s like that guy from Office Space. If someone was not worried about making sure I get paid, I’d probably question the service aspect of civil service.

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  #32  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:18 AM
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I wish the unpaid workers well but canít they take a hint already? Youíre working for free? The taxpayers arenít worried about supporting you, move on with your life, bud.
Yeah, who needs airport security? Fuck this TSA shit.
  #33  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:26 AM
Steve MB Steve MB is offline
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Itís good in the long run
...to let salmonella, e.coli, etc run rampant and week out the weak and inferior.
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  #34  
Old 01-10-2019, 12:07 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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I wish the unpaid workers well but canít they take a hint already? Youíre working for free? The taxpayers arenít worried about supporting you, move on with your life, bud.
Damn straight! Every FBI agent ought to take his job and shove it. Good call, Will!
  #35  
Old 01-10-2019, 12:14 PM
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Iím the optimist who voted for 1-2 years. Hopefully the unpaid feds will stop showing up so society can expand to fill the void with hard workers and smart entrepreneurs.
Yes, because I can't see any possible downsides to private citizens stepping forward to enforce laws on their own initiative without any supervision.
  #36  
Old 01-10-2019, 12:21 PM
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Somebody's gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months.
I am just hoping that the Democrats don't go soft on us and cave because 800,000 federal workers are in dire straits.

Better to let them suffer and win the big fight, rather than cave, to solve a transient one.
  #37  
Old 01-10-2019, 12:48 PM
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Yeah, who needs airport security? Fuck this TSA shit.
Lol

https://blogs-images.forbes.com/nial...e_Security.jpg
  #38  
Old 01-10-2019, 12:50 PM
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...to let salmonella, e.coli, etc run rampant and week out the weak and inferior.
No. There would be no mirage of food safety with govt out.

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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Damn straight! Every FBI agent ought to take his job and shove it. Good call, Will!
Lord willing. Let the private market sort it out.

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Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
Yes, because I can't see any possible downsides to private citizens stepping forward to enforce laws on their own initiative without any supervision.
I could if they tried to enforce the bogus laws the govt enforces. They wonít do that though.
  #39  
Old 01-10-2019, 01:04 PM
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For a master negotiator and businessman, he has certainly painted himself into a corner and given himself zero negotiation room. He now lives or dies over this wall and frankly that worries me. That said, I think as long as the D's stay unified in opposition this will end badly for Trump. I read an article this morning where reports are Trump and his advisors really didn't even consider the significant impact to a shutdown - food inspections, income tax returns, SNAP benefits, etc. and just how many millions of people were going to be hurt. They seem to have only considered the federal workers in aggregate who get furloughed and tried to either claim they supported the shutdown (absurd on its face) or that they were just lazy D's working in cushy union jobs (also absurd). As it becomes more and more apparent that soon millions won't be able to receive SNAP to feed their family, as income tax refunds don't get sent hurting middle and lower class families who plan for that annual windfall of a return, and as the airport system grinds to a halt dramatically impacting business and vacation travel... Well, if Trump doesn't fold the R's in the Senate are going to have to have a Come To Jesus meeting and make a very hard choice. Save themselves or go down with the Wall which they all know is a useless boarder protection measure.

I voted 1-2 months because I think it'll take that long for the pain level to reach a threshold where Trump or the R's will have to act to end this.
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  #40  
Old 01-10-2019, 01:37 PM
FlikTheBlue FlikTheBlue is offline
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That's my thinking, and how I voted.
Yes, this is the correct interpretation of the question, how much longer will the shutdown last as of yesterday.

As far as the gravity of the situation, I'm one of the ones who voted for multiple months. It's not that I think things will be business as usual without the government. The problem is that Trump has no incentive to cooperate. The Republicans in the Senate and House do have some incentive to cooperate, but so far from their POV the benefits of staying with Trump outweigh the benefits of cooperating. I think it will take things getting worse, probably a whole lot worse, for enough of them to start changing their minds. It's not enough for the usual suspects like Murkowski and Collins to consider cooperating. To get to 2/3 to override a Trump veto, 20 senators will need to change their minds. At this point I have such little regard for the decency of most of those Republican Senators that I think it's going to take more than just some federal workers missing a check or two or for some poor people not getting their SNAP benefits to change their minds. It's going to take things falling apart to a level that most Americans, including their constituents and not just people in blue states, to start feeling the effects.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 01-10-2019 at 01:37 PM.
  #41  
Old 01-10-2019, 01:45 PM
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The Democrats in the House will keep trying to reopen the government and keep forcing McConnell to keep blocking votes in the Senate. It's a question of how long McConnell can keep doing that before people start to blame the Senate Republicans for the shutdown. Right now, the public perception is that it's Trump versus the Democrats. But once the public begins pointing the finger at McConnell and the GOP, then we *might* see McConnell allow voting on it. But then he'd be sending a bill to the president who started this mess in the first place.

Don't expect Trump to pay attention to polls on this issue. He's pleasing his fan base, which are the only people who care. If federal workers quit, well, his base won't care. Remember, these are the people who campaign on making government smaller - not necessarily smaller through financial attribution, but they'll take what they can get. This could go on until there's a noticeable economic impact.
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:08 PM
FlikTheBlue FlikTheBlue is offline
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The Democrats in the House will keep trying to reopen the government and keep forcing McConnell to keep blocking votes in the Senate. It's a question of how long McConnell can keep doing that before people start to blame the Senate Republicans for the shutdown. Right now, the public perception is that it's Trump versus the Democrats. But once the public begins pointing the finger at McConnell and the GOP, then we *might* see McConnell allow voting on it. But then he'd be sending a bill to the president who started this mess in the first place.

Don't expect Trump to pay attention to polls on this issue. He's pleasing his fan base, which are the only people who care. If federal workers quit, well, his base won't care. Remember, these are the people who campaign on making government smaller - not necessarily smaller through financial attribution, but they'll take what they can get. This could go on until there's a noticeable economic impact.
Agreed. I don't see any scenario in which Trump agreeing to any kind of negotiated settlement. It's going to take a veto proof bill. The question is which Republican senators will go along with a bill negotiated with the Democrats. I've already mentioned Murkowski and Collins, so who are the other Republicans that are likely to end up negotiating? McConnell himself as leader would likely have to be part of the group. I think Romney is also likely to join in eventually. Any other suggestions for the 16 others that would still be needed?
  #43  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:16 PM
Manda JO Manda JO is offline
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It doesn't need to be veto-proof, if McConnell will just let them vote. And it doesn't matter if it would be veto proof, if he won't.

If the House and the Senate pass a bill and Trump vetos it, this is totally his shutdown, in a way everyone can understand.
  #44  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:25 PM
Red Stilettos Red Stilettos is offline
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I voted less than a week. I think Trump is becoming keenly aware that he has painted himself into a corner and the Dems aren't backing down. I expect he'll declare a national emergency by the end of this week and the spending packages will be passed by early next week. Then, he can fight it out in the courts (which his base will love) and ultimately lose. But he can blame the liberal elites for blocking him at every turn and his base will be happy.
  #45  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:44 PM
wguy123 wguy123 is offline
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The Democrats in the House will keep trying to reopen the government and keep forcing McConnell to keep blocking votes in the Senate. It's a question of how long McConnell can keep doing that before people start to blame the Senate Republicans for the shutdown.
This is entirely on Senate Republicans now. They could pass a veto-proof bill today if they wanted (I seem to recall them passing such a bill 100-0 not long ago). There are three branches of the government but dickhead McConnell seems to think there are only two and he has to take orders from the Pres.
  #46  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:46 PM
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it would be awesome if the house and senate passed bills and presented them to Trump. When he asked if his wall was funded, they could just say: Yeah, yeah, sure it is. Go ahead and read the bill if you can. I mean, if you want. Then point to some random words and say: see, it's right there.
  #47  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:51 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Well, I think we should all look forward to living in a zone (ETA: it wouldn't qualify as a country anymore) where rich warlords provide such security as they see fit.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 01-10-2019 at 02:52 PM.
  #48  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:58 PM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
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I'm not holding my breath for Susan Collins to make a difference. She's a one-trick pony. If you want someone to clutch their pearls and shed crocodile tears over the latest outrage from the far right, but then go ahead and vote with the far right every single time, then Susan is your woman. If you want someone to actually make a stand, look for someone else.

I actually heard a Republican rep from OK make some sense today. He said to solve it, you need to make it bigger. Make a big deal that includes DACA to make the Dems happy, add in the $5 billion for border security to pacify the bigots, end sequestration to mollify the Dems, give another bone to Republicans, and so on. Let everybody claim some sort of victory.
  #49  
Old 01-10-2019, 02:59 PM
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Agreed. I don't see any scenario in which Trump agreeing to any kind of negotiated settlement. It's going to take a veto proof bill. The question is which Republican senators will go along with a bill negotiated with the Democrats. I've already mentioned Murkowski and Collins, so who are the other Republicans that are likely to end up negotiating? McConnell himself as leader would likely have to be part of the group. I think Romney is also likely to join in eventually. Any other suggestions for the 16 others that would still be needed?
There's a deeper significance to this than just the shutdown; this is Trump once again reasserting control over the Republican party. One might assume that the Republicans might be more liberated since the shellacking they took in November, but that didn't affect the Senate Republicans, which still has a favorable map for the time being.

But the even deeper significance is that by reasserting control, Trump is forcing the party to take even more extreme positions. That's why people need to be careful about expectations that a 4-5% (or worse) drop in the polls necessarily leads to a Eureka moment among Senate or House Republicans. There are very, very few moderate Republicans left. They might privately disagree with Trump's tactics and whatever else - they might even despise the man privately. But publicly, they know that most of the remaining Republican party has campaigned on an extreme platform. They know that they and their colleagues were brought to this dance by people who don't care a damn about the majority of Americans who know that Trump is trying to score a symbolic win and want the government reopened. The Republicans are governing and now even campaigning on pluralities, not majorities. That's what needs to be remembered in all of this, and that's why we're at threat level orange.

People assume that rational people will eventually come to their senses. But was World War I rational? World War II? The Cuban Missile crisis? In the first two examples, we had decades to avert disaster, but didn't. And we barely averted a much more devastating disaster in 1962. But the assumption that people will behave rationally...is a very dangerous one.
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Old 01-10-2019, 03:01 PM
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This is entirely on Senate Republicans now. They could pass a veto-proof bill today if they wanted (I seem to recall them passing such a bill 100-0 not long ago). There are three branches of the government but dickhead McConnell seems to think there are only two and he has to take orders from the Pres.
Of course it is - ask them if the care.

They don't.

The won't until there's a reason to, and that reason won't be the suffering of people; it will be their resulting outrage.

RAGE is good.

Last edited by asahi; 01-10-2019 at 03:01 PM.
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