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Old 04-21-2019, 04:50 AM
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Trump will be re-elected -- "Americans are a stupid people. We believe whatever we're told."


America has one political party which pushes the truth ... opposed by a gang of criminals and hypocrites who do nothing but lie. The liars are favored to win.

By 2004 American voters were catching on to the lies and incompetence of the Bush-Cheney misadventures. John Kerry, a Vietnam War hero, was running to unseat Dubya, a malingerer whose connections got him a cushy military service flying airplanes in Florida (and who couldn't even be bothered to do that, his connections saving him from AWOL arrest). The GOP strategy for the campaign was non-stop lies about Kerry's war record.

* Dubya Bush won the 2004 election because ... voters were "uncertain" about Kerry's military record.
* In 2016 the GOP ran a despicable man, a criminal swindler, rapist, possible traitor. He won because (due to GOP lies with Kremlin assistance) voters were "uncertain" about Hillary's integrity.
* And now both Nate Silver and prediction markets have the 2020 election pegged as an even-money prospect.

You'd never know the 2020 election is a coin-toss to read the pundits at SDMB. To hear them talk, Trump's defeat is so certain the D's should go for broke, nominating a lesbian black Islamic socialist with a Spanish surname. Victory is guaranteed so let's show what we can do!

IMHO, the D's need to be very careful to win this election. Remember that the median "independent" voter is quite stupid, and 49% of them are even stupider than that. "Americans are a stupid people by and large. We pretty much believe whatever we're told."
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:05 AM
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Originally Posted by septimus View Post
...You'd never know the 2020 election is a coin-toss to read the pundits at SDMB. To hear them talk, Trump's defeat is so certain the D's should go for broke, nominating a lesbian black Islamic socialist with a Spanish surname. Victory is guaranteed so let's show what we can do!
...
You must be reading different pundits. That's not what I'm picking up here. *I* believe thump will get reelected, partly because his base will never desert him.

But his reelection is guaranteed because the Republicans are willing to employ any methods they can to make sure it happens-- voter suppression by any means, intimidation, transportation restrictions, draconian i.d., rules, reducing the number of polling places available, resisting making election day a holiday so people don't have to take off from work to vote. They have no scruples and no conscience when it comes to keeping their puppet in the White House for four more years.

The Senate Majority Leader [Mitch McConnell], the longest-serving Republican to ever hold that position, all but admitted on the Senate floor Wednesday that having more Americans vote is bad for the Republican Party.
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Old 04-21-2019, 09:14 AM
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I dunno, I like to think I'm fairly centrist and that mayor fella, Buttigieg is looking like someone I'd vote for over any of the other names being thrown out there.
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Old 04-21-2019, 09:28 AM
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"Americans are a stupid people. We believe whatever we're told."

Yes, I read that in the New York Times.
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Old 04-21-2019, 01:30 PM
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Then who elected Obama?
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Old 04-21-2019, 02:50 PM
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Why are people so convinced of Trump's reelection because "his base will never leave him" when his base has consistently hovered at around 30 percent? That's not overwhelming approval.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:04 PM
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Why are people so convinced of Trump's reelection because "his base will never leave him" when his base has consistently hovered at around 30 percent? That's not overwhelming approval.
Okay, I said that in the first part of my post, but how about commenting on the IMPORTANT part of my post:
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...But his reelection is guaranteed because the Republicans are willing to employ any methods they can to make sure it happens-- voter suppression by any means, intimidation, transportation restrictions, draconian i.d., rules, reducing the number of polling places available, resisting making election day a holiday so people don't have to take off from work to vote. They have no scruples and no conscience when it comes to keeping their puppet in the White House for four more years.

The Senate Majority Leader [Mitch McConnell], the longest-serving Republican to ever hold that position, all but admitted on the Senate floor Wednesday that having more Americans vote is bad for the Republican Party.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:08 PM
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Thread relocated from IMHO to Elections.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:21 PM
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I don’t believe the polls, the 2018 election results, or even the narrow margin in key states in 2016, make the OP’e prediction very likely.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:33 PM
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I will make no predictions until Nate Silver does, and then my predictions will, for some reason, be exactly the same as his.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:36 PM
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But his reelection is guaranteed because the Republicans are willing to employ any methods they can to make sure it happens-- voter suppression by any means, intimidation, transportation restrictions, draconian i.d., rules, reducing the number of polling places available, resisting making election day a holiday so people don't have to take off from work to vote. They have no scruples and no conscience when it comes to keeping their puppet in the White House for four more years.

The Senate Majority Leader [Mitch McConnell], the longest-serving Republican to ever hold that position, all but admitted on the Senate floor Wednesday that having more Americans vote is bad for the Republican Party.
Because of the shenanigans reported on in the Mueller Report, there will hopefully be a closer alarm watch on those sorts of doings by the press and progressive watchdog groups.

However, the Dems should have a huge advantage in not backing unelectable Hillary this time around.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:37 PM
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Then who elected Obama?
Obama got elected because his opponents weren't willing to tell outright lies and exploit the stupidity referred to in the OP, as well as to court white nationalists.

Trump wasn't elected solely by his base. There are always those who will vote Republican no matter how corrupt the candidate. Those, combined with the white nationalists, along with his base of suckers, got him just enough votes in just the right places to will the Electoral College. It's really the suckers who make the difference, though, because some of them (only some--not many) voted for Obama before.
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:01 PM
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America has one political party which pushes the truth ... opposed by a gang of criminals and hypocrites who do nothing but lie. The liars are favored to win.

By 2004 American voters were catching on to the lies and incompetence of the Bush-Cheney misadventures. John Kerry, a Vietnam War hero, was running to unseat Dubya, a malingerer whose connections got him a cushy military service flying airplanes in Florida (and who couldn't even be bothered to do that, his connections saving him from AWOL arrest). The GOP strategy for the campaign was non-stop lies about Kerry's war record.

* Dubya Bush won the 2004 election because ... voters were "uncertain" about Kerry's military record.
* In 2016 the GOP ran a despicable man, a criminal swindler, rapist, possible traitor. He won because (due to GOP lies with Kremlin assistance) voters were "uncertain" about Hillary's integrity.
* And now both Nate Silver and prediction markets have the 2020 election pegged as an even-money prospect.

You'd never know the 2020 election is a coin-toss to read the pundits at SDMB. To hear them talk, Trump's defeat is so certain the D's should go for broke, nominating a lesbian black Islamic socialist with a Spanish surname. Victory is guaranteed so let's show what we can do!

IMHO, the D's need to be very careful to win this election. Remember that the median "independent" voter is quite stupid, and 49% of them are even stupider than that. "Americans are a stupid people by and large. We pretty much believe whatever we're told."
The average IQ is 100. Why would you ever think that communication that was a 100% rational would be optimal in politics?
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:03 PM
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Then who elected Obama?
Obama got put over the top by record black turnout. It's just that simple. Blacks voted for him because he was black. Sadly, this is about the depth of analysis that most voters routinely engage in.

Trump won in 2016 because (a) most Republicans would vote the R ticket even if the candidate was an orange tufted baboon, and (b) there were enough xenophobes, bigots, and white nationalists to put him over the top.

What greatly compounds the problem is the generally very low voter turnout, so that whatever voting blocs the candidate happens to attract have a disproportionate influence.

Last edited by wolfpup; 04-21-2019 at 06:04 PM.
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:11 PM
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Trump barely squeaked by on a technicality in 2016 after eight years of Obama, which put the enthusiasm entirely on their side. Whatever advantages incumbency might provide him pale in comparison to what four years of his presidency has done for the relative enthusiasm of each side.
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:18 PM
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Trump barely squeaked by on a technicality in 2016 after eight years of Obama, which put the enthusiasm entirely on their side. Whatever advantages incumbency might provide him pale in comparison to what four years of his presidency has done for the relative enthusiasm of each side.
What technicality?
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:22 PM
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Then who elected Obama?
I thought it was undocumented Kenyans and Muslims voting illegally in this country. I think I saw that on Fox.

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Old 04-21-2019, 07:00 PM
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Why are people so convinced of Trump's reelection because "his base will never leave him" when his base has consistently hovered at around 30 percent? ...
Because they all vote. (Or nearly).

Only about half of Americans vote, even in Presidential elections. If the 30% of the total who are Trump fans all vote, and only about a third of the other 70% of Americans vote, then you get the usual number of total votes....with Trump getting more than the Democrat.

Add in social-media pressure on Democrats to vote 3rd-party----and there will be a TON of it (the Russian bots are already hitting that theme hard, along with "Democrats are cowards, why vote for cowards?")....and you have a secure re-election for Mr. Deplorable.

Last edited by Sherrerd; 04-21-2019 at 07:01 PM.
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:25 PM
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Why are people so convinced of Trump's reelection because "his base will never leave him" when his base has consistently hovered at around 30 percent? That's not overwhelming approval.
Because you are way off on Trump’s approval rating. He is at 41.6% at fivethirtyeight.com right now and has been remarkably consistent at between 41-42% for the entirety of his presidency.


ETA: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...he-new-normal/

Last edited by madmonk28; 04-21-2019 at 08:27 PM.
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Old 04-21-2019, 09:03 PM
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Here's my prediction. 62,984,828 people voted for Trump in 2016. That number will be virtually the same, and in virtually the same geographic distribution, in 2020. Because perhaps no President in history running for reelection has done less to draw more voters toward him without also driving his supporters away.

If the Democrats want to win, they need to find roughly 50,000 more voters in Pennsylvania, 23,000 in Wisconsin, and 12,000 in Michigan, without losing roughly 45,000 voters in Minnesota, 27,000 in Nevada, and 3,000 in New Hampshire.

Anyone who thinks they can predict that right now is a damn fool.
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Old 04-21-2019, 09:08 PM
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...If the Democrats want to win, they need to find roughly 50,000 more voters in Pennsylvania, 23,000 in Wisconsin, and 12,000 in Michigan, without losing roughly 45,000 voters in Minnesota, 27,000 in Nevada, and 3,000 in New Hampshire.

....
And make sure they are 1) allowed to register, 2) allowed to vote, and that 3) their votes are counted. The Republicans at the state and federal levels are working overtime to place obstacles in the way of all of those.
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Old 04-21-2019, 10:11 PM
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Because they all vote. (Or nearly).

Only about half of Americans vote, even in Presidential elections. If the 30% of the total who are Trump fans all vote, and only about a third of the other 70% of Americans vote, then you get the usual number of total votes....with Trump getting more than the Democrat.

Add in social-media pressure on Democrats to vote 3rd-party----and there will be a TON of it (the Russian bots are already hitting that theme hard, along with "Democrats are cowards, why vote for cowards?")....and you have a secure re-election for Mr. Deplorable.
Which is odd, because Mr. Deplorable is such a wimp he wouldn't leave a hotel because it was raining.
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Old 04-21-2019, 11:28 PM
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If the Democrats want to win, they need to find roughly 50,000 more voters in Pennsylvania, 23,000 in Wisconsin, and 12,000 in Michigan, without losing roughly 45,000 voters in Minnesota, 27,000 in Nevada, and 3,000 in New Hampshire.

Anyone who thinks they can predict that right now is a damn fool.
It's worse than that. In 2016, 172,000 in Michigan voted for Gary Johnson compared with less than 8000 in 2012; 147,000 in Pennsylvania compared with 50,000; 107,000 in Wisconsin compared with 20,000. People who vote Libertarian tend to be xenophobic bigots who oppose taxation. Their fears about Trump have changed into delight; expect to see them return to the GOP for the 2020 election.

Pennsylvania is 11% black; Michigan over 14% black. wolfpup is correct that those votes are hugely important to D's chances. Although Governors are Democratic, the GOP controls both houses of the state legislatures of both these states. The 2020 Election may come down to the suppression of likely Democratic voters. The criminals are more powerful than ever now, and are packing the courts. If you think this will be a fair election, let me sell you a bridge....

We can't predict the future with any certainty, but we can guess the probabilities. I repeat my guess: If the economy is still good, this outrageous and despicable criminal will be re-elected.
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Old 04-21-2019, 11:36 PM
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Obama got elected because his opponents weren't willing to tell outright lies and exploit the stupidity referred to in the OP, as well as to court white nationalists.
In fact, sometimes they even tried to squelch outright lies that their supporters were peddling, and it may have cost them politically. Consider John McCain's well-known reaction to a voter repeating one of the many baseless rumors about Obama in 2008:
Quote:
A woman came up to McCain at a rally and said, I cant trust Obama. I have read about him, and hes not, hes not hes an Arab. Her comment prompted McCain to immediately shake his head and take the microphone from her.

No maam, McCain said. Hes a decent family man, a citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues, and thats what this campaign is all about.

McCain continued to defend Obama during the event even as his supporters voiced their surprise in the background.

He is a decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as President, McCain said. If I didnt think Id be one heck of a better President I wouldnt be running, and thats the point. I admire Sen. Obama and his accomplishments, I will respect him. I want everyone to be respectful, and lets make sure we are. Because thats the way politics should be conducted in America.
The Trump base doesn't want a candidate who talks about admiring an opponent's accomplishments and being respectful. What do you think Trump would say to a rumormongering supporter in such a situation? "Well, you know, a lot of people are saying---they're saying he's a secret Arab and does all those, you know, secret Arab rituals, whatever. Very bad for our country! Is it true? Could be, I don't know. A lot of people are saying this!"
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Old 04-21-2019, 11:50 PM
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... The Trump base doesn't want a candidate who talks about admiring an opponent's accomplishments and being respectful. ...
To be fair, neither do the Dems.
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Old 04-22-2019, 12:14 AM
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Nothing in that article supports your claim. Your attempt at bothsiderism is stillborn.
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:25 AM
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I disagree with, "Americans are a stupid people. We believe whatever we're told." The general population of most countries may often be politically unengaged or misinformed due to daily living activities dealing with obtaining and maintaining necessities like food, shelter, etc. When it comes to beliefs, most people tend to believe what is comfortable and accept concepts they want to believe. As an example, I think this is one of the main reasons religion is so popular. I mean, who doesn't appreciate a happy ending?
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:00 AM
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I mean, who doesn't appreciate a happy ending?

Certainly not Robert Kraft!
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:15 AM
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Nothing in that article supports your claim. Your attempt at bothsiderism is stillborn.
But we are going to force him to carry it to term and look at an ultrasound of his flawed logic.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:10 AM
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Nothing in that article supports your claim. Your attempt at bothsiderism is stillborn.
Try reading it again. You might have missed this bit in the opening paragraph:


Quote:
... called Vice President Mike Pence a "decent guy" during a speech in Omaha, a comment that frustrated some on the left ...
  #31  
Old 04-22-2019, 08:21 AM
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The Dems do need to play it smart. But it'll be interesting to see if they can checkmate DT before the election:

DON'T seek reelection and we won't file impeachment proceedings; maybe even a non-prosecution agreement to the effect of "Don't run, and you and the kids get immunity from obstruction & other charges. RUN and the impeachment goes down, and everybody goes to gaol. And all done in a reality TV format, with occasional solo scenes addressing concerns to a camera.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:30 AM
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President Trump knows the Dems don't have the votes to remove him from office. Several Dopers have argued that impeachment may actually HELP him win re-election. They don't have enough political power to leverage into what you propose, and the people who matter know it.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 04-22-2019 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:35 AM
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Depends on how much the Repubs hold on to in next election. But yeah impeachment during this term would be a mess unless The Don starts eating live babies in the rose garden every Sunday. And even then he'd probably be ok.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:46 AM
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Try reading it again. You might have missed this bit in the opening paragraph:
No, I didn't miss it.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:49 AM
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What technicality?
The electoral college.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:27 AM
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The electoral college.
Treating that as a technicality is a fatal political move.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:36 AM
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Try reading it again. You might have missed this bit in the opening paragraph:
Since you've given up on denying whatever Republicans fuck up any more, imagine the time and effort you could save if you just made "They do it tooooo!" your signature.

Last edited by Czarcasm; 04-22-2019 at 09:37 AM.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:56 AM
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... imagine the time and effort you could save if you just made "They do it tooooo!" your signature.
I don't think it would be nearly as effective as pointing out recent examples of Dems throwing a tantrum over one of their own candidates calling someone on the other side a "decent guy".
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:01 AM
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Ha ha. "Tantrum".
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:31 AM
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I don't think it would be nearly as effective as pointing out recent examples of Dems throwing a tantrum over one of their own candidates calling someone on the other side a "decent guy".
Except we get so tired of your links not being as you describe them that, after a while, we just assume it is another in a long line of "They do it too!" links that just don't match up with the hyperbole you use to describe it. The obvious solution is to either be a bit more accurate in your link descriptions....or go with my previous signature suggestion.
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:54 AM
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Except we get so tired of your links not being as you describe them ...
I quoted what I see as the relevant bit. Out of idle curiosity: How would you describe the left-wing reaction to Biden calling Vice President Pence a "decent guy"?
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:58 AM
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I quoted what I see as the relevant bit. Out of idle curiosity: How would you describe the left-wing reaction to Biden calling Vice President Pence a "decent guy"?
Not my week to speak for the hive-mind, sorry.
Would you like to hear my personal opinion on the subject?
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:02 AM
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Not my week to speak for the hive-mind, sorry.
Would you like to hear my personal opinion on the subject?
That's exactly what I was asking for. How would you describe the left-wing reaction to Biden calling Vice President Pence a "decent guy"? Did they applaud his statesmanship and signal appreciation for his bipartisanship and decency? Were they annoyed / upset about it? Did they "throw a tantrum"? How would you describe it?

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 04-22-2019 at 11:03 AM.
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:07 AM
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That's exactly what I was asking for. How would you describe the left-wing reaction to Biden calling Vice President Pence a "decent guy"?
Some were for it, some were against it, some thought it was unfortunate, some thought it was despicable, some thought it didn't matter compared to what is going on currently, some thought it doesn't matter because they aren't voting for him any way etc. etc. etc.
And some(or at least I) wonder why you give a fuck about this, other than as yet another diversion from current events.

edited to add: And how you can keep bringing up "tantrums" and yet never connect the word to the Orange Marmalade In Chief is beyond comprehension.

Last edited by Czarcasm; 04-22-2019 at 11:10 AM.
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:13 AM
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In fact, as long as Trump is in office "tantrum" is a word you should be avoiding at all cost, because as far as you're concerned "tantrum" is synonymous with "boomerang".
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:21 AM
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Some were for it, some were against it, some thought it was unfortunate, some thought it was despicable, some thought it didn't matter compared to what is going on currently, some thought it doesn't matter because they aren't voting for him any way etc. etc. etc.
And some(or at least I) wonder why you give a fuck about this, other than as yet another diversion from current events.

edited to add: And how you can keep bringing up "tantrums" and yet never connect the word to the Orange Marmalade In Chief is beyond comprehension.
So Kimstu posts about something that happened over a decade ago, and as a response, I post something that happened a month or two ago, and you think I'm the one creating a "diversion from current events"?
  #47  
Old 04-22-2019, 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I quoted what I see as the relevant bit. Out of idle curiosity: How would you describe the left-wing reaction to Biden calling Vice President Pence a "decent guy"?
As someone pointed out in your permanent Pit thread, you chastise Democrats for supporting Biden in the thread about the Mueller Report. So here you are chastising Dems for not supporting Biden and there you are chastising Dems for supporting Biden. In both cases, people start talking about your derailment and not Republican actions.
  #48  
Old 04-22-2019, 11:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
So Kimstu posts about something that happened over a decade ago, and as a response, I post something that happened a month or two ago, and you think I'm the one creating a "diversion from current events"?
Yes.

Back to the subject-I don't think Republicans (and Trump in particular) will give up using what works to get elected just because a few of the dirty tricks used have been exposed. There isn't enough self-respect left in the entire Republican Party to slow down, let alone put a stop to, what has been shown to produce favorable results for their Party. Trump has shown exactly what he can get away with when morals and ethics are thrown out the window, so I predict that not only will Trump continue as usual, but that more and more Republicans will follow his lead, and if enough people see enough Republicans acting this way, they will go along with it.

Last edited by Czarcasm; 04-22-2019 at 11:31 AM.
  #49  
Old 04-22-2019, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by madmonk28 View Post
As someone pointed out in your permanent Pit thread, you chastise Democrats for supporting Biden in the thread about the Mueller Report. So here you are chastising Dems for not supporting Biden and there you are chastising Dems for supporting Biden. In both cases, people start talking about your derailment and not Republican actions.
Biden happens to be the front-runner for the Dems 2020 nomination, so he's difficult to dismiss as just some crazy old nut. So when someone complains that Republicans nominated someone who had been accused of harassing / assaulting women, it's pretty straightforward to point out to them that their current front-runner has also been accused of harassing / assaulting women. Also, when someone points out that some Republicans have "voiced their surprise" over their party's nominee for calling Obama "a decent family man" / "decent person", it's pretty relevant to point out to them that their own front-runner recently called a Republican a "decent guy" and some Democrats reacted with: "some were against it, some thought it was unfortunate, some thought it was despicable". If you can't see how those comments were relevant to the posts they were responding to, I don't know how to resolve that issue for you.

If you've got complaints about harassment / assault of women, or more-than-a-decade-old incidents at a McCain rally being brought into threads about other things, I suggest you direct those comments to the posters that first raised them, or the mods if you feel so inclined.
  #50  
Old 04-22-2019, 11:45 AM
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Yup, the Republicans have gone all in on white nationalism, a party that will work with a hostile government to undermine our democracy doesn't just learn it's lesson because they got caught. They will continue to suppress voting by people of color, they will continue to push their case in the Supreme Court on the census to radically undermine the fair distribution of House seats and they will continue to lock children in cages to keep their racist base mobilized. How anyone could think that they won't, or that it's not working is beyond me. Look at the week after the Mueller report, they are rallying around a career criminal who has been outed. The fact that his approval hovers at 42% of the general population and about 85% of the GOP is terrifying.
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