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Old 11-04-2019, 08:12 PM
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The Democrats Emergency Thread


Let's face facts: as things right now, the Democrats are in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Biden is too old. Warren and Sanders are too radical. Castro, Booker, and Harris are too identity-ish. Klobuchar too bland. Buttigieg too gay*.

Is there anyone else out there we could nominate?

* I don't mean that being gay is an issue with me, but it is going to be an issue with some social conservatives who happen to be Democrats.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:17 PM
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These are the people who are running. We're only a couple of months away from the first primary. Nobody is going to jump into the race and sweep away all the current candidates.

Get a grip.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:18 PM
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Why are Warren and Sanders too radical when their policies are popular among the public? And why is Biden too old? Biden is only 3 years older than Trump.

Also why do people assume the average voter is a republican who 'maybe' will vote democrat as long as the democratic candidate is so bland as to not be offensive? America has changed quite a bit in the last few decades.

Nearly 45% of voters are either white liberals or minorities. The idea that the 'average voter' is a white republican who 'maybe' will vote democratic as long as the democrats are passive, submissive and bland enough is a very outdated POV.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:19 PM
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Elizabeth Warren is 70 YO. And in my opinion, too old.

Last edited by steatopygia; 11-04-2019 at 08:20 PM.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:28 PM
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Someone new jumping in at this stage of the race? Yeah, that would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:29 PM
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These are the people who are running. We're only a couple of months away from the first primary. Nobody is going to jump into the race and sweep away all the current candidates.

Get a grip.
He will not get a grip. You will see. I will teach you.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:31 PM
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Why are Warren and Sanders too radical when their policies are popular among the public?
Define popular among the public, my friend?

What I can tell you is that if Warren (or Sanders) is the nominee, there will be an avalanche of effort to undermine her candidacy. The big business crowd that laments Trump's trade policies will hold fire on Trump and turn their aim on Warren, who promises to be their nemesis.

The only time that you can really and truly afford to make enemies of big business in this country is when the economy is absolutely, positively in the shitter, to the point where there's revolutionary sentiment brewing. Basically, like what we had in 2008 or 1932. Short of that, forget it. A socialist of any stripe hasn't a chance.

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And why is Biden too old? Biden is only 3 years older than Trump.
True, but Trump makes up shit as he goes and he entertains. He's a buffoon, which is charming and disarming at any age. Biden tries to be coherent, and because he's 78, it's sometimes apparent that he hasn't the ability to be who he wants to be. Trump gets away with being old; Biden won't.

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Also why do people assume the average voter is a republican who 'maybe' will vote democrat as long as the democratic candidate is so bland as to not be offensive? America has changed quite a bit in the last few decades.

Nearly 45% of voters are either white liberals or minorities. The idea that the 'average voter' is a white republican who 'maybe' will vote democratic as long as the democrats are passive, submissive and bland enough is a very outdated POV.
You will see what I'm talking about when we get into the thick weeds of the electoral college.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:31 PM
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he will not get a grip. You will see. I will teach you.
iswydt...

Last edited by Locrian; 11-04-2019 at 08:31 PM.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:33 PM
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Hillary is available.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:35 PM
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One of these people will be the nominee, they will win, they will be the new leader of the Democratic Party, and this thread will seem absurd in retrospect.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:41 PM
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Hillary is available.
You mean the one person in all of history to lose an election to Donald Trump?
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:51 PM
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One of these people will be the nominee, they will win, they will be the new leader of the Democratic Party, and this thread will seem absurd in retrospect.
Lol. Did you see the Shadenfreud thread from 2016?
https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb...ht=Shadenfreud
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:03 PM
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You know, Al Gore is a young 71.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:03 PM
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Any potential candidate is running out of time. This primary cycle is front loaded with big shares of total delegates being decided early. States set the lead time to get on the ballot. 30-60 days is pretty typical. States that are strongly Dem leaning also tend to have implemented measures like early in person and more permissive absentee ballot rules. That tends to push the registration requirements earlier. It is important to remember that those same states tend to get more delegates than their population would suggest because of bonuses in the rules for recent votes going Democratic. The earliest closing time states probably have some correlation with those states getting more delegates.

In some states it is pretty easy to register. Some paperwork and a small fee can be enough to get on the ballot. In others it takes collecting signatures on a petition. That takes time. It especially takes time for a potential candidate that at this point has no campaign staff or offices in the state in question. The bright side for hiring campaign staff is that those dropping now frees up the market of qualified labor. It is still a large field so staff could still be an issue. Still hiring people and collecting signatures before the cut off for the ballot takes additional time.

It is possible to just blow off some of the states with the earliest cutoffs. It takes a majority of delegates to win the nomination on the first round of voting, though. We do have that front loaded schedule this time. We also have the proportional rules used by the DNC. It is harder to rack up dominating wins in some states to make up for ignoring too many delegates by simply not being on ballots.

By current DNC debate rules it is going to be tough to make the November debate. There are nine days left to meet the numbers of individual donors. A household name might have a chance with that. Getting enough qualifying polls is going to be tough unless they are declaring as I type. That means the mystery candidate better assume they are not part of the free publicity and messaging that comes from debating until the Dec 19th debate. They better also hope that people are paying attention right before the holiday season.

The rules and state laws are chewing up potential late entries by putting them at a severe disadvantage. With every passing day that gets worse. Changing those to clearly give a late entry a chance comes with some pretty severe risks for the DNC.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:06 PM
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Lol. Did you see the Shadenfreud thread from 2016?
https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb...ht=Shadenfreud
Iíll put my neck out. Trump will not be re-elected. You can gloat away if Iím wrong; Iíll be too busy building my bunker to care.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:07 PM
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Let's face facts: as things right now, the Democrats are in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Biden is too old. Warren and Sanders are too radical. Castro, Booker, and Harris are too identity-ish. Klobuchar too bland. Buttigieg too gay*.

Is there anyone else out there we could nominate?

* I don't mean that being gay is an issue with me, but it is going to be an issue with some social conservatives who happen to be Democrats.
As far as I can tell, you jump from thread-to-thread panicking about how the Dems don't stand a chance.

I'd just like to reiterate: HRC won the popular vote by a considerable margin. And she was a historically unpopular candidate running on a very lousy platform built on almost nothing but entitlement.

Anyone left who has a real chance to win has measurably more charisma and likeability rating far greater than she could ever have managed.

On top of that, the nation, including republicans, are suffering from severe doses of Trump Fatigue.

You didn't seem to want to address it in the Warren 2020 thread, so I'll re-state it here:

You are wildly overestimating how informed or engaged the voting populace is--and I mean PEOPLE WHO VOTE. Most of them vote on feelings, or vote because they are so sick of what's happening now that they want to vote for the anti-Now.

Whoever is the anti-Trump fares a strong chance of winning by virtue of simply not being Trump.

I'd encourage you, as others have, to calm down.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:09 PM
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I remember a hell of a lot of talk in 2016 about how Donald Trump had single-handedly destroyed the Republican party forever with his polarizing and outrageous campaign, which was doomed to go down in flames, and the Democratic party was about to emerge stronger than it's ever been. I can remember the sheer confidence of the people making these proclamations.

The Dems could ABSOLUTELY blow it again, and in fact I think the chances of it are high.

I've said many many times I think Pete Buttigieg is the most likely to beat Trump, and I do not think being gay is as big of a liability as a lot of people think. This isn't 1992, it's not even 2002. Being gay isn't a punchline anymore. It is WAY more accepted than it's ever been.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:23 PM
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I remember a hell of a lot of talk in 2016 about how Donald Trump had single-handedly destroyed the Republican party forever with his polarizing and outrageous campaign, which was doomed to go down in flames, and the Democratic party was about to emerge stronger than it's ever been. I can remember the sheer confidence of the people making these proclamations.
I remember a huge swing in the 2018 midterms, on par with the backlash following watergate.

Quote:
The Dems could ABSOLUTELY blow it again, and in fact I think the chances of it are high.

I've said many many times I think Pete Buttigieg is the most likely to beat Trump, and I do not think being gay is as big of a liability as a lot of people think. This isn't 1992, it's not even 2002. Being gay isn't a punchline anymore. It is WAY more accepted than it's ever been.
I keep coming back to Buttigieg, and I think he has the ďitĒ factor to be a great leader. The question is whether he can get minority voters to turn out for him.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:32 PM
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Al Gore, Michelle Obama, Bart Gordon, Lincoln Davis, Mark Warner, Conner Eldridge.

The four white men I discussed are from the South.

For Democrats to win the presidency, you have to do well in the South, despite the GOP's Southern strategy domination.

Carter (1976), B. Clinton (1992-1996), and Obama (2008-2012) performed well in the South.

Al Gore, 20 years ago, ran a bad campaign and could not even win FL (we all know how that went out), AR, TN, LA, MO.

If Gore could have kept Tennessee in the D column, you would have had a Pres. Gore.

Yes, Democrats and Republicans are running in a small-sliver, Electoral College campaign.

You need MI/PA/WI/NH/AZ to win, but try to pick up NC/FL/GA.

Those guys and Michelle Obama can do that.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:34 PM
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Hillary is available.
The Clintons are no longer powerful in Democratic politics.

Hillary is finished.

She will endorse, but she is finished.

I don't think Hillary 2020 should even be a thought.
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Old 11-04-2019, 09:44 PM
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Gore-Kerry 2020. "You voted for EACH of us, now you can vote for BOTH of us."
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Old 11-04-2019, 10:23 PM
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Elizabeth Warren is 70 YO. And in my opinion, too old.
Then you should vote for Trump. Right?
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Old 11-04-2019, 10:29 PM
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Is there anyone else out there we could nominate?
I'd like to submit Hillary Clinton's name for your consideration. After all, she "won" once already.
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Old 11-04-2019, 10:43 PM
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What I can tell you is that if Warren (or Sanders) is the nominee, there will be an avalanche of effort to undermine her candidacy.
There will be a massive effort to undermine the candidacy of any Democratic nominee. That's how political campaigns work.
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Old 11-04-2019, 10:49 PM
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Then you should vote for Trump. Right?
We were discussing the viability of democratic candidates. You know, like pointing out differences among them and what makes them more or less electable. Excellent post.
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Old 11-04-2019, 10:59 PM
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What I can tell you is that if Warren (or Sanders) is the nominee, there will be an avalanche of effort to undermine her candidacy. The big business crowd that laments Trump's trade policies will hold fire on Trump and turn their aim on Warren, who promises to be their nemesis.
And you think they won't undermine every other possible Democratic nominee?

Name one, just one, who won't suffer this fate.
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Old 11-04-2019, 11:32 PM
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And you think they won't undermine every other possible Democratic nominee?

Name one, just one, who won't suffer this fate.
asahi is in a sweaty panic because there's no far-right republican who democrats love. [The op] is irrational politically and out of touch when it comes to the facts that the electorate plug into when they make a decision.

As far as I can tell, they only think a Trump replacement who republicans love more than Trump who also democrats love is the only viable candidate. It's literally no one who exists, and no one who exists could apparently, possibly beat Trump. Certainly no one running as a Dem.

There's literally not a human being perfect enough who everyone loves that will make (OP) chill out and trust the voters.

I wish I had more pearls to loan for clutching.
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Old 11-04-2019, 11:57 PM
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A good baseball team should have a sturdy warrior in the bullpen, ready to mount the mound if things turn bleak. In 2016 we had the opportunity to send in Biden when Clinton faltered (and many thought we should have asked the cigar-smokers to so intervene). Sure Biden would have been almost 74 years old on Election Day 2016, and older than even Reagan was at re-election, but 74 is the new 72.

But who do the Democrats have in the bullpen now? Not someone like Hickenlooper or Inslee ó they've been "repudiated" already in this pre-primary season. Landrieu? Nowhere near the name recognition of a ฺBiden.

I agree with OP. D's are now choosing between Warren ó perceived by many as too leftist and too shrill ó and Biden, an old inarticulate man whose alleged crimes the GOP will try to make the focus of the impeachment debate. The other front-runners, Sanders and Buttigieg, might be even more flawed.

The economy is likely to keep its chin up for 12 months. Impeachment may strengthen Trump. Severe flaws in the D candidate will become increasingly apparent. Next summer we may watch in horror as polls in Pennsylvania suggest a repeat of 2016 ... and, however desperate, the Ds will have no sturdy warrior in the bullpen ready to be sent in.
  #29  
Old 11-05-2019, 12:15 AM
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Why isn't anyone paying attention to Steve Bullock?
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Old 11-05-2019, 01:02 AM
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If you want liberals to sit out the election and let Trump coast to a second term, then by all means replace one of the candidates voters are actually enthusiastic about with a milquetoast centrist who's campaigned and failed in the past.

I mean, it worked so well for Presidents Kerry, McCain, and Romney.
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Old 11-05-2019, 01:41 AM
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...the "emergency" was in 2015 when Trump formerly announced his run for the Presidency. People were yelling and screaming about voter suppression, about the weaponization of social media, they were ignored. This isn't an "emergency" now. We are in the endgame. The chess pieces are all in position. We are on the express train to 2020, no stopping until the next election.

The perfect candidate doesn't exist. Nobody is coming to save you. The primary process is going to happen. A candidate (almost certainly one of the names that you listed) is going to be chosen to go up against Trump. That's just where we are at. Just accept it.

The only people that would have a hope-in-heck of grabbing a nomination would be a celebrity: Oprah, Tom Hanks, The Rock, Jon Stewart, someone with name-recognition, star-power and can at least string a few sentences together. I very much doubt it could work, however there really isn't anyone else IMHO that would be able to step in at this late stage.
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Old 11-05-2019, 02:22 AM
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How do you like the sound of "President Colbert"? It would begin as one of his farcical larks, but suddenly everyone would realize that the voters had become serious about him. He would protest and demur, but the process would railroad genuine humor into the Whitehouse, and we might all finally discover what the man himself is really like.

Last edited by eschereal; 11-05-2019 at 02:23 AM.
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Old 11-05-2019, 02:47 AM
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Or president Tom Hanks. He just looks like the president. Put him against Trump in the debates and it would look like a contrast between the president and an obvious supervillain.
  #34  
Old 11-05-2019, 03:33 AM
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too gay*
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I do not think being gay is a big liability. This isn't 1992, it's not even 2002. Being gay is WAY more accepted than it's ever been.
A president often appears with the First Lady , holding hands and kissing-- at the convention, during the campaign,dancing together at the inaugural ball,etc.

Serious question: does Buttigieg have a partner?
After seeing them holding hands and kissing in public, some people (a lot of people, actually) are going to have a problem voting for him.

Remember, many people vote mostly by their gut-level feelings.

Last edited by chappachula; 11-05-2019 at 03:35 AM.
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Old 11-05-2019, 04:27 AM
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I think what ANY dem should fear is Romney 2020.
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Old 11-05-2019, 04:32 AM
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A president often appears with the First Lady , holding hands and kissing-- at the convention, during the campaign,dancing together at the inaugural ball,etc.

Serious question: does Buttigieg have a partner?
After seeing them holding hands and kissing in public, some people (a lot of people, actually) are going to have a problem voting for him.

Remember, many people vote mostly by their gut-level feelings.
He is married to Chasten Glezman.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_B...#Personal_life
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Old 11-05-2019, 05:07 AM
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I think what ANY dem should fear is Romney 2020.
If Romney wants to run next year, he's going to need to get started about eight months ago.
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Old 11-05-2019, 05:22 AM
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There is one (and probably only one) person who could be drafted in an emergency and be favored to win the brass ring: ... Michelle Obama.
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Old 11-05-2019, 06:01 AM
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Let's face facts: as things right now, the Democrats are in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Biden is too old. Warren and Sanders are too radical. Castro, Booker, and Harris are too identity-ish. Klobuchar too bland. Buttigieg too gay*.

...
It's way too early to panic like that. Hell, before long Trump is liable to take some hostages and end up in a barricade situation. Even today's senate Republicans would have to seriously consider not supporting him in that endeavor. And the American people, stacked as the deck is for Republicans, might just speak out against it. I'm still cautiously hopeful.
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Old 11-05-2019, 06:16 AM
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There is one (and probably only one) person who could be drafted in an emergency and be favored to win the brass ring: ... Michelle Obama.
...Why?

She has never held elected office or any government office and has never shown any interest in running for office.

Last edited by Smapti; 11-05-2019 at 06:16 AM.
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Old 11-05-2019, 06:21 AM
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As far as I can tell, you jump from thread-to-thread ...
Username/post combo winner.
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Old 11-05-2019, 06:30 AM
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How do you like the sound of "President Colbert"? It would begin as one of his farcical larks, but suddenly everyone would realize that the voters had become serious about him. He would protest and demur, but the process would railroad genuine humor into the Whitehouse, and we might all finally discover what the man himself is really like.
I do have to admit that it'd be hilarious to watch either Stewart or Colbert run circles around him during a debate.
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Old 11-05-2019, 07:44 AM
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Elizabeth Warren is 70 YO. And in my opinion, too old.
I'm 61 and in my opinion, too old. Seriously, why aren't we looking at a field of 40 year olds?
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:36 AM
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I've said many many times I think Pete Buttigieg is the most likely to beat Trump, and I do not think being gay is as big of a liability as a lot of people think. This isn't 1992, it's not even 2002. Being gay isn't a punchline anymore. It is WAY more accepted than it's ever been.
Being gay isn't his problem. The problem with Mayor Pete is he's a phony. There's no 'there' there.

ETA: And want to absolutely kill African-American turnout? Nominate Pete.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 11-05-2019 at 08:40 AM.
  #45  
Old 11-05-2019, 08:39 AM
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There is one (and probably only one) person who could be drafted in an emergency and be favored to win the brass ring: ... Michelle Obama.
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...Why?

She has never held elected office or any government office and has never shown any interest in running for office.
This. She has made it very clear that she has no desire to run for office, that she may have married a politician but she doesn't want to be one.
  #46  
Old 11-05-2019, 09:41 AM
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Being gay isn't his problem. The problem with Mayor Pete is he's a phony. There's no 'there' there.

ETA: And want to absolutely kill African-American turnout? Nominate Pete.
Eh?

A Harvard graduate and Rhodes Scholar that also served as an intelligence officer in the Navy and deployed to Afghanistan. And of course a Mayor of a small(ish) Midwestern town.

All before he hit his mid 30's.

That's a phony to you?
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:45 AM
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Yeah, I'm not getting the anti-Pete "phony" insult, either
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Being gay isn't his problem. The problem with Mayor Pete is he's a phony. There's no 'there' there.
Yeah, the total 180 on his entire political identity within the party ought to confirm that. I don't think it's the worst strategy to get the nomination (I think he was finding that three was a crowd on things like Medicare For All) but I have no idea what he actually believes any more. He's managed to get below Biden in my ranking of the top 5, which took some doing given my coolness toward Biden and my initial favorability toward Buttigieg.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 11-05-2019 at 09:53 AM.
  #49  
Old 11-05-2019, 09:52 AM
dalej42 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Being gay isn't his problem. The problem with Mayor Pete is he's a phony. There's no 'there' there.

ETA: And want to absolutely kill African-American turnout? Nominate Pete.
Um, no, youíre wrong. Three of the top 4 are polling awful with African Americans and the 4th is Biden who polls awful with the under 45 age group.

Any Democrat that wins this nomination is good to have the full support of Barack and Michelle Obama. If it isnít Biden, then heíll be a weapon as well. Bill Clinton is still popular in the AA community as well.

And, how do you call Mayor Pete a phony? Heís by far the most impressive candidate in the race and Iím happy to volunteer for him.
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  #50  
Old 11-05-2019, 09:57 AM
dalej42 is offline
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Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
Yeah, the total 180 on his entire political identity within the party ought to confirm that. I don't think it's the worst strategy to get the nomination (I think he was finding that three was a crowd on things like Medicare For All) but I have no idea what he actually believes any more. He's managed to get below Biden in my ranking of the top 5, which took some doing given my coolness toward Biden and my initial favorability toward Buttigieg.
Please donít let the campaign define Peteís position on Medicare for all who want it. Hereís evidence that Peteís position has remained consistent.
https://twitter.com/sevendicey/statu...542948867?s=21

I know Pete was fine as the cute cuddly gay polling under 5%. Now that heís a threat to Warrenís coronation, the knives are out. The last thing Warren wants is a repeat of 2008 with Pete in the Obama role and Warren as Hillary.
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