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Old 04-05-2020, 03:55 PM
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AOC has a formidable primary challenger in journalist Maria Caruso-Cabrera


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Caruso-Cabrera said she decided to go into public service and challenge the freshman congresswoman after watching Ocasio-Cortez’s vocal opposition to Amazon’s plan to build a major campus in Queens. A poll conducted by the Siena College Research Institute last year found that 38% of New Yorkers labeled the congresswoman “a villain” in Amazon’s forced pullout. “She threw away 25,000 jobs and she’s proud of it, she owns it,” Caruso-Cabrera said. “I just couldn’t stand by and watch that.” She added, “It’s obvious that Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t pay attention to her district or her constituents. She spends a lot of time on TV shows, in Hollywood, and she’s spending all this time on the campaign trail for other constituents that have nothing to do with her district,” a reference to Ocasio-Cortez’s stumping for Sanders. “The district deserves someone who’s actually interested in their issues and what they need.” Caruso-Cabrera pointed out that she announced her decision to run for the seat while Ocasio-Cortez was in New Hampshire campaigning with Sanders in an effort “to highlight where she wasn’t” — in her own district.
https://jewishinsider.com/2020/03/fr...ocasio-cortez/

MCC is a longshot but the way moderate Dems have been pounding DSA types don't be surprised.

Last edited by Linden Arden; 04-05-2020 at 04:00 PM.
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Old 04-05-2020, 04:02 PM
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Sorry, missed the edit window. Her name is Michelle, not Maria.
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:33 AM
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Sorry, missed the edit window. Her name is Michelle, not Maria.
I would have bet on Elizabeth Crowley but since AOC has moderated her stance on primarying mainstream Democrats, I don't think it's going to happ-en.
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Old 04-06-2020, 09:48 AM
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Will AOC's democrat constituents really prefer a republican nominee?

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Caruso-Cabrera is the author of You Know I’m Right: More Prosperity, Less Government, which calls for fiscal conservatism, limited government and personal accountability. The book, which came out in 2010, includes a foreword from Larry Kudlow, President Donald Trump’s top economic advisor. Caruso-Cabrera registered as a Democrat in 2016. She wouldn’t say who she voted for in the 2016 presidential election, but told JI that she plans to support the Democratic nominee in November.
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Old 04-06-2020, 10:15 AM
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Caruso-Cabrera's candidacy was announced back in early February.

AOC's vulnerability is that she spends more time on issues not as related to her district.

AOC's strength is that she's very well known across the country. People like that their rep is well known.

It's a double edged sword for AOC.
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Old 04-06-2020, 10:27 AM
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Will AOC's democrat constituents really prefer a republican nominee?
She's an opportunist; that's all.
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Old 04-06-2020, 10:37 AM
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A Representative isn't a Senator; she should be focusing on more local/district issues. Instead, AOC has been behaving like a Senator or presidential candidate at times, going around stumping nationwide for national/international issues and behaving like a national-level politician. Not that she isn't allowed to, but a Representative is supposed to pay a considerable amount of attention to her district first.
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Old 04-06-2020, 11:06 AM
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Will AOC's democrat constituents really prefer a republican nominee?
Nope.

A lot of them are a little pissed at her over the Amazon jobs but they will not vote for a Republican. The only way AOC loses is if she goes off the rails and has to be primaried. For a while it looks like that might happen but now with her newfound maturity, she will probably not face a serious primary challenge.
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Old 04-06-2020, 11:46 AM
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She'll be fine imo. Turn out was something like 13% last time vs Crowley which helped her as the challenger but now as the incumbent and a very recognizable incumbent, I expect turn out to rise significantly in her favor.

Fox News and right wing media jump on her back and find faults in every word because she's got personality and clout to bring in a new kind of voter. She's a pop-culture politician.
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:02 PM
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Having an influential national figure as Rep is almost always good for a locality -- influential Reps are more likely to get stuff that benefits their district.
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:07 PM
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Caruso-Cabrera's candidacy was announced back in early February.

AOC's vulnerability is that she spends more time on issues not as related to her district.

AOC's strength is that she's very well known across the country. People like that their rep is well known.

It's a double edged sword for AOC.
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A Representative isn't a Senator; she should be focusing on more local/district issues. Instead, AOC has been behaving like a Senator or presidential candidate at times, going around stumping nationwide for national/international issues and behaving like a national-level politician. Not that she isn't allowed to, but a Representative is supposed to pay a considerable amount of attention to her district first.
Do either of you live in her district or are you just seeing what the national media is reporting?
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:13 PM
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Having an influential national figure as Rep is almost always good for a locality -- influential Reps are more likely to get stuff that benefits their district.
Reps that can influence votes, yes. Reps that influence twitter trends, yet to be seen.
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:43 PM
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...t since AOC has moderated her stance on primarying mainstream Democrats,....
Explain, please?
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:45 PM
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Will AOC's democrat constituents really prefer a republican nominee?
Caruso-Cabrera is a Democrat.
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Old 04-06-2020, 02:44 PM
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Caruso-Cabrera is a Democrat.
A fiscally conservative Democrat who may have voted for Trump in 2016 and whose book includes a Larry Kudlow foreward. She's not nearly as much of a Democrat as, oh, to pick someone at totally random, Bernie Sanders.
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Old 04-06-2020, 03:05 PM
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I confess that while I don't always agree with AOC, I've become mightily impressed by her. She strikes me as someone who has good political instincts that weren't that sharp initially, but she's definitely honed those skills. She also has a pretty good command of the issues as well, not just on a superficial level.
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Old 04-06-2020, 05:31 PM
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Don't know anything about MCC, but New Yorkers have been willing to vote for Democrats who had been Republican in their past before ...

This is an outsider's perspective but my impression is that AOC is popular as a personality and as a celebrity, but not because her progressive positions are so beloved within her district. The lost Amazon jobs may be a more salient item in a New York economy hobbled by COVID-19.

Polls on the recovery side of the COVID-19 peak, as a campaign heats up, will be interesting.
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Old 04-07-2020, 01:00 PM
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Having an influential national figure as Rep is almost always good for a locality -- influential Reps are more likely to get stuff that benefits their district.
Unless the Rep uses her influence so that her district doesn't get stuff that would benefit them, like jobs.
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Caruso-Cabrera is the author of You Know I’m Right: More Prosperity, Less Government, which calls for fiscal conservatism, limited government and personal accountability.
Someone with some sense against a far-left, pretty progressive fruitcake with no math skills and great PR. Caruso-Cabrera doesn't stand a chance.

Regards,
Shodan

Last edited by Shodan; 04-07-2020 at 01:01 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 02:54 PM
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AOC does appear to be vulnerable in her own district but only if someone pulls an AOC on her in the primary. She won by going grassroots and hitting the pavement. Working hard going door to door and getting supporters out to vote in a low turnout primary. It also helped to have a complacent opponent.

I can’t seem to recall what it is but I think there might be something going on that would keep a grassroots door to door hands on campaign from happening. I think she is safe.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:06 PM
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Even without a pandemic, I would be extremely shocked someone could beat her. She clearly likes the work at every level and is charismatic as hell. She showed her campaigning chops as an insurgent and it's only easier for her as incumbent.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:19 PM
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I'm fine with her being challenged. If she's as good as I think she is, she won't break a sweat on her way to her second term. But we'll see. Primary challenges in safe blue districts are good for keeping Reps on their toes and from getting complacent.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:21 PM
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AOC does appear to be vulnerable in her own district but only if someone pulls an AOC on her in the primary. She won by going grassroots and hitting the pavement. Working hard going door to door and getting supporters out to vote in a low turnout primary. It also helped to have a complacent opponent.

I can’t seem to recall what it is but I think there might be something going on that would keep a grassroots door to door hands on campaign from happening. I think she is safe.
Right, and Crowley basically didn't campaign at all. I don't think AOC makes that mistake.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:34 PM
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Having an influential national figure as Rep is almost always good for a locality -- influential Reps are more likely to get stuff that benefits their district.
You mean like the new Amazon Headquarters? Oh wait....
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:42 PM
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Explain, please?
She has a million dollars in her PAC. She was going to use it to help other progressive Justice Democrats primary moderates in safe blue districts. She is no longer going to do that.

Shortly after her election:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...ocrats-1000529

More recently:

https://www.ccn.com/aocs-justice-dem...ry-challenges/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/u...democrats.html

She no longer embraces that tactic:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...he-left-150767
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:44 PM
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AOC does appear to be vulnerable in her own district but only if someone pulls an AOC on her in the primary. She won by going grassroots and hitting the pavement. Working hard going door to door and getting supporters out to vote in a low turnout primary. It also helped to have a complacent opponent.

I can’t seem to recall what it is but I think there might be something going on that would keep a grassroots door to door hands on campaign from happening. I think she is safe.
She won because her opponent didn't take her seriously.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:46 PM
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I'm fine with her being challenged. If she's as good as I think she is, she won't break a sweat on her way to her second term. But we'll see. Primary challenges in safe blue districts are good for keeping Reps on their toes and from getting complacent.
I suspect it pushes her towards the center and she ends up exactly where Joe Crowley was?
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:48 PM
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She won because her opponent didn't take her seriously.
Good reason to be happy that he's gone, then -- if he sucked so bad as a politician that he didn't take the election seriously, he deserved to lose. We should be glad when unskilled Democratic politicians who are bad at winning elections are replaced by skilled and talented Democrats who are better at winning elections.

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I suspect it pushes her towards the center and she ends up exactly where Joe Crowley was?
I suspect she'll be much, much less likely to blow off elections than Crowley. On the issues, she's still significantly more progressive (yay!), and we'll see how that changes.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 04-07-2020 at 03:49 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:53 PM
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She won because her opponent didn't take her seriously.
She partially won because he didn’t take her seriously. She also won because of voter apathy. She mostly won because she put in a lot of hard and effective work. Love her or hate her, it’s undeniable that she ran a smart and effective campaign against an entrenched incumbent.

In my often wrong opinion the current situation in the world will keep something similar from happening to her.
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:57 PM
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She has a million dollars in her PAC. She was going to use it to help other progressive Justice Democrats primary moderates in safe blue districts. She is no longer going to do that.
...
Well, that's good, then because infighting does nothing but help the GOP.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:08 PM
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Good reason to be happy that he's gone, then -- if he sucked so bad as a politician that he didn't take the election seriously, he deserved to lose. We should be glad when unskilled Democratic politicians who are bad at winning elections are replaced by skilled and talented Democrats who are better at winning elections.
In a safe blue district?

Should we have every safe Democrat focused more on doing Democrat things or on making sure that noone is sneaking up behind them during the primary?

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I suspect she'll be much, much less likely to blow off elections than Crowley. On the issues, she's still significantly more progressive (yay!), and we'll see how that changes.
Considering how she beat Crowley, yes she is less likely to blow off primary challenges.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:10 PM
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Well, that's good, then because infighting does nothing but help the GOP.
Some people (like iiandyiiii) don't think that's true. Some people (like iiandyiiii) thinks that infighting is OK as long as it results in moving the party to the left.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:33 PM
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Some people (like iiandyiiii) don't think that's true. Some people (like iiandyiiii) thinks that infighting is OK as long as it results in moving the party to the left.

Honestly, it seems sometimes like they'd rather have trump than a moderate democrat.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:37 PM
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Some people (like iiandyiiii) don't think that's true. Some people (like iiandyiiii) thinks that infighting is OK as long as it results in moving the party to the left.
In safe blue districts, this is a great thing, and strengthens the party. Also, if it helps boot the Democrats who are shitty at winning elections, like Crowley. I want a party full of politicians who are very highly skilled at winning elections, and the younger the better. Imagine if every presidential primary candidate (or hell, just 1 or 2) this cycle had the charisma and talent of AOC, and just a bit of her youth! We should be ENCOURAGING young progressives to primary Democrats in safe blue districts! The skilled older Democrats will brush them aside with ease, but the ones with poor skills and effort (like Crowley) will lose and be replaced by more talented Democrats.

Why would anyone prefer a lazy, less skilled old dude over an energetic and talented young person?

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 04-07-2020 at 05:42 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:38 PM
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Honestly, it seems sometimes like they'd rather have trump than a moderate democrat.
Which posts of mine are you referring to? Please be specific.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:43 PM
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Sometimes, it feels like older Democrats want young progressives, also known as the fucking future of the Democratic party, to just disappear. I'd prefer to nail them down and ensure they become Democrats for life.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 04-07-2020 at 05:43 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:44 PM
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Also, if it helps boot the Democrats who are shitty at winning elections, like Crowley. I want a party full of politicians who are very highly skilled at winning elections, and the younger the better. Imagine if every presidential primary candidate (or hell, just 1 or 2) this cycle had the charisma and talent of AOC. We should be ENCOURAGING young progressives to primary Democrats in safe blue districts! The skilled older Democrats will brush them aside with ease, but the ones with poor skills and effort (like Crowley) will lose and be replaced by more talented Democrats.

Why would anyone prefer a lazy, less skilled old dude over an energetic and talented young person?
Talent?? LoL. She took the air out of Pelosis sails just when Nancy thought she was riding the momentum of reclaiming the Speakers chair. AOC is a godsend to Reps in swing states. She is a Twitter hero for the far left and a galvanizing force of goofiness for the moderates/conservatives.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:45 PM
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Talent?? LoL. She took the air out of Pelosis sails just when Nancy thought she was riding the momentum of reclaiming the Speakers chair. AOC is a godsend to Reps in swing states. She is a Twitter hero for the far left and a galvanizing force of goofiness for the moderates/conservatives.
Ha! So was Obama in '07. What a joke!

AOC may not have the talent of Obama (but then again... she's a lot further along than he was at 29), but being "a godsend to Republicans" was pretty much exactly the same what they (Republicans) said about Obama in '07. We'll see. I'm very pleased to have her in the party.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 04-07-2020 at 05:47 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:45 PM
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Sometimes, it feels like older Democrats want young progressives, also known as the fucking future of the Democratic party, to just disappear. I'd prefer to nail them down and ensure they become Democrats for life.
Or they disagree with their politics.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:46 PM
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Ha! So was Obama in '07. What a joke!
Had a few? If you think Obama is anywhere near as far left as AOC...
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:48 PM
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Had a few? If you think Obama is anywhere near as far left as AOC...
Back in '07, Obama was about as close to the center of the party as AOC is now. Sure, Obama turned out to govern a lot more moderately than his rhetoric, but that's what we're talking about -- rhetoric.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:57 PM
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Sometimes, it feels like older Democrats want young progressives, also known as the fucking future of the Democratic party, to just disappear. I'd prefer to nail them down and ensure they become Democrats for life.

Not at all. But they do want them to stop attacking other Democrats.

You can say Bernies M4A plan is the bestest evar, and that's great. But when you pay for millions of $ of TV ads claiming falsely that Biden wants to cut SocSec, you are doing nothing but helping trump. See the difference?

I dont know why the progressives can't get that.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:58 PM
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Back in '07, Obama was about as close to the center of the party as AOC is now. Sure, Obama turned out to govern a lot more moderately than his rhetoric, but that's what we're talking about -- rhetoric.
This is silly. And false. Obama wasnt touting economy killing nonsense like a green new deal. Obama was educated and had lots of public policy experience. AOC is a William Jennings Bryan type of huckster.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:00 PM
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Not at all. But they do want them to stop attacking other Democrats.

You can say Bernies M4A plan is the bestest evar, and that's great. But when you pay for millions of $ of TV ads claiming falsely that Biden wants to cut SocSec, you are doing nothing but helping trump. See the difference?
The hottest fire forges the strongest steel. That's what primaries are for -- to test the candidates, and see who emerges strongest. If Biden emerges strongest, then attacks like that will have helped.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:04 PM
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Just the fact that we're all talking about her is evidence of her level of political skill. Agree or disagree with her positions, but she's definitely good at what she does.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:05 PM
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This is silly. And false. Obama wasnt touting economy killing nonsense like a green new deal. Obama was educated and had lots of public policy experience.
AOC is a first term Rep. Who knows where she'll be, or what she'll be advocating for, in 5 or 10 years. But she'll have learned a lot more by then.

Assume she's good for the Republicans at your own peril. I remember thinking the same thing about Trump in '15. I won't be making the same mistake again, but hopefully Republicans like you will!

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AOC is a William Jennings Bryan type of huckster.
Somehow I'm unconvinced by the judgment about a young progressive from someone with obvious disdain for progressives. We'll see, but as a progressive and a Democrat, I see an enormously talented young politician -- the most talented politician in her 20s I think I've ever seen. We'll see if her abilities pan out like I hope they do, but right now I'm very excited she's in my party.

You're kidding yourself if you weren't wishing that there was a 20-something politician, with similar political positions to your own, who had already developed national recognition and popularity. That doesn't happen just by chance.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:08 PM
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Back in '07, Obama was about as close to the center of the party as AOC is now. Sure, Obama turned out to govern a lot more moderately than his rhetoric, but that's what we're talking about -- rhetoric.
There is a slight difference. Back in 2004 at the Convention, Obama announced himself with that famous speech about there not being a blue America or a red America but a United States of America.

Obama was pitching himself as a uniter. AOC and her ideological colleagues (the Sanders wing) have spent the last four years trying to divide the party they want to lead. Now AOC seems to be reining it in from her end which is wise.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:10 PM
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There is a slight difference. Back in 2004 at the Convention, Obama announced himself with that famous speech about there not being a blue America or a red America but a United States of America.
That was the right message for the time. Now, that just seems quaint.

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Obama was pitching himself as a uniter. AOC and her ideological colleagues (the Sanders wing) have spent the last four years trying to divide the party they want to lead. Now AOC seems to be reining it in from her end which is wise.
We'll see if she has the talent I hope she does -- if so, her messaging will evolve as the times do.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:46 PM
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That was the right message for the time. Now, that just seems quaint.



We'll see if she has the talent I hope she does -- if so, her messaging will evolve as the times do.
I think she knows she will be expected to take on the baton from Bernie Sanders as the next leader of the democratic socialist movement. But she also knows the high chance she'll have to work with President Biden for four years. She could stand by and scold him for only pursuing a Public Option and not Medicare For All which appeases the people who already support that idea. Or she could work with him in getting the votes for a Public Option, getting it on his desk and enacted and having something to put on her resume of delivering results, not rhetoric.
  #49  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:21 PM
Damuri Ajashi is offline
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
In safe blue districts, this is a great thing, and strengthens the party. Also, if it helps boot the Democrats who are shitty at winning elections, like Crowley. I want a party full of politicians who are very highly skilled at winning elections, and the younger the better. Imagine if every presidential primary candidate (or hell, just 1 or 2) this cycle had the charisma and talent of AOC, and just a bit of her youth! We should be ENCOURAGING young progressives to primary Democrats in safe blue districts! The skilled older Democrats will brush them aside with ease, but the ones with poor skills and effort (like Crowley) will lose and be replaced by more talented Democrats.

Why would anyone prefer a lazy, less skilled old dude over an energetic and talented young person?
Oh fer heaven's sake. Now you have to demonize Joe Crowley to make it OK for AOC to primary a progressive Democrat who by all accounts was good for the party and good for the country? Jeebus.

We'd be better off dusting off Hillary and running her again than running someone like Hillary.
  #50  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:34 PM
Damuri Ajashi is offline
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Sometimes, it feels like older Democrats want young progressives, also known as the fucking future of the Democratic party, to just disappear. I'd prefer to nail them down and ensure they become Democrats for life.
I really really hope the justice Democrats are not the "the fucking future of the Democratic party" We will end up with a SCOTUS full of Samuel Alitos.

Why do we want to nail down these AOC types, where the fuck are they going to go? The Republicans? If they could have split off to some other fucking party they would have done it already, the entire reason Justice Democrats are running as Democrats is because they know they can't win a goddam thing running as green or socialist or whatever.

And based on how Bernie has been doing, they don't vote any more than previous generations of young people.

Their theory seems to be that we need their support to win elections, so we should give them even MORE leverage to hijack the party.

We don't need them as much as they need us. If we turn our backs on them, there may be votes in the middle we can pick up. If they turn their backs on us, where the fuck can they go, to Jill Stein?

They need us to have any chance in hell of advancing their agenda, they admit as much. If they have good ideas that won't cost us elections, we should listen to them; but if they try to throw their weight around with pelosi again, then I think we can just put them in a corner table at the far end of the tent.
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