# '08 Fantasy Electoral College Game **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 29, 2008, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731 "2008-09-29T16:51:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/61 "2008-10-31T20:50:33Z")
Obama 388 - 150. 53% - 45% popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/62 "2008-10-31T20:56:55Z")
GA, SC, TX, AL, LA, MS, TN, KY, OK, AR, WV, KS, NE, ND, SD, UT, ID, WY, AK go to McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/63 "2008-10-31T21:47:08Z")
Obama - 338 McCain - 200 Obama - 52% McCain - 46% Barr - 1% Nader - 1% I think Obama takes Florida and Ohio, but doesn’t take Missouri or Georgia ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/64 "2008-10-31T21:47:47Z")
Alright, I’m making some revisions. Here are my new predictions: I think Obama will pick up every Kerry state, and will also win: West: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico Midwest: Iowa, Missouri, Ohio South: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida Total: Obama 364, McCain 174 Popular Vote: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, Nader 2%, Barr 1% ---
**Author:** ![ataraxy22](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ataraxy22/32/307_2.png) [@ataraxy22](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ataraxy22)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/65 "2008-10-31T21:48:42Z")
Obama 390 55% McCain 148 43% ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/66 "2008-10-31T21:50:10Z")
> [@ataraxy22](#): > > Obama 390 55% > McCain 148 43% :eek:😃 ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/67 "2008-10-31T21:55:00Z")
I officially hope than whomever has the most predicted electoral votes for Obama wins. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/68 "2008-10-31T22:26:58Z")
Obama 375, 54% McCain 163, 44% ---
**Author:** ![bibliophage](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bibliophage/32/7615_2.png) [@bibliophage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bibliophage)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/69 "2008-10-31T22:50:37Z")
Obama 339 electoral, 51% popular McCain 199 electoral, 48% popular Among reasonably close states, McCain wins Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Georgia. Obama wins Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado. Obama also picks up one electoral for winning the popular vote in Nebraska’s second district. Maine won’t split; Obama wins all 4 electoral votes here. ---
**Author:** ![Unix\_Geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unix_geek/32/19368_2.png) [@Unix\_Geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unix_Geek)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/70 "2008-11-01T00:10:49Z")
Onomatopoeia all ready posted numbers that I came up with (O-338/M-200). So I’ll wait until [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) runs today’s numbers and pick a different scenario. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/71 "2008-11-01T00:18:12Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > I officially hope tha[t] whomever has the most predicted electoral votes for Obama wins. Seconded. But I’m sticking by my more modest projection from earlier. My 11-year-old carved one of our jack-o-lanterns with the Obama “O” logo! Only a few trick-or-treaters noticed, though. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/72 "2008-11-01T01:20:33Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Seconded. But I’m sticking by my more modest projection from earlier. > > My 11-year-old carved one of our jack-o-lanterns with the Obama “O” logo! Only a few trick-or-treaters noticed, though. Neat! I wish I had an Obama punkin. ---
**Author:** ![Unix\_Geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unix_geek/32/19368_2.png) [@Unix\_Geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unix_Geek)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/73 "2008-11-01T02:02:26Z")
Okay here are my predictions: Obama: 353 - 52.2% McCain: 185 - 46.4% Obama picks up: CO, FL, IA, NV, NM, NC, OH, VA McCain keeps IN, MO, & ND ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/74 "2008-11-01T02:53:22Z")
OK… it’s easy to say “378 Obama” because the various composite polling sites that don’t tend towards keeping lots of tossup states are hovering around that. What the heck, I’ll go out on a limb and predict a shift that has not shown up in the polls yet. Just a hunch. I say Obama brings in over 400 electoral college votes. My 378 baseline: CA OR WA HI NV MT [or ND] CO NM MN IA MO MI WI IL IN OH FL NC VA DC MD DE PA NJ NY CT MA RI VT NH and ME To that I will add: [both MT and ND not just one], and GA for 396, and at least 4 more from one (or more) of the following: LA, AZ, AR, WV, SD Bonus: I also say the Democrats get their 60 in the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Hoopy\_Frood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hoopy_frood/32/8452_2.png) [@Hoopy\_Frood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hoopy_Frood)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/75 "2008-11-01T14:55:08Z")
I’m just waiting for the day a 3rd party wins at least 3 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/76 "2008-11-01T18:33:08Z")
> [@Hoopy\_Frood](#): > > I’m just waiting for the day a 3rd party wins at least 3 electoral votes. _Again_, you mean? > **[File:1968 Electoral Map.png](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1968_Electoral_Map.png)** > > čeština | Deutsch | English | français | Bahasa Indonesia | italiano | македонски | മലയാളം | sicilianu | 中文 | 中文（简体）‎ | 中文（繁體）‎ | +/− > Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time. > You cannot overwrite this file. The following 2 pages use this file: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/77 "2008-11-01T22:48:25Z")
Aw, man, for a while there, it was looking like I’d get the whole tail to myself. I should have known that there are enough game strategists on the Dope that someone would go over me. ---
**Author:** ![Hoopy\_Frood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hoopy_frood/32/8452_2.png) [@Hoopy\_Frood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hoopy_Frood)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2008, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/78 "2008-11-02T19:48:31Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > _Again_, you mean? > > [File:1968 Electoral Map.png - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1968_Electoral_Map.png) Well, yes. Technically, since I wasn’t born until 1976, I’ve never seen it happen. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/79 "2008-11-04T02:03:08Z")
Democratic Party Winners Carter, 1976 297 Kennedy, 1960, 303 incidentally the same as… Truman, 1948, 303 Clinton, 1992 370 Clinton, 1996 379 Johnson, 1964 486 Republican Party Winners Bush II, 2000 271 Bush II, 2004 286 Nixon, 1968 301 Bush I, 1988 426 Reagan, 1980 489 Nixon, 1972 520 Reagan, 1984 525 Comments: a) The photo-finish cliffhangers of the last two iterations are unusual. The electoral college usually magnifies small diffs in the popular vote so that blowouts are the general rule. b) I say the big suspense is whether Obama surpasses the two Clinton win margins or not. c) I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Recent (post-Johnson) history has given Democratically-inclined voters the expectation that “if we win, it’s just barely, expect nothing so you don’t get disappointed”. But the Republicans haven’t had a blowout since Bush I in '88. I know that’s a lot more recent than Johnson in '64, but there’s no reason to go around thinking we live in a conservative / Republican nation. d) On the other hand, can you imagine a contest wherein the Democratic Party garnered over 500 votes in the EC? Me neither. It would be prefaced by conjectural headlines (on page 6 due to lack of general suspense) about whether the Republican could pull off an upset in Alabama despite trailing by 6 points. And whether or not Utah was really in the bag for the GOP this year. I’m sticking with my prediction. (Not that I can change it at this late date anyhow). Obama will break the 400 EV barrier, just barely. If I’m wrong I won’t be short by much. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731/80 "2008-11-04T16:02:36Z")
[fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) has Obama winning the EC 346.5 - 191.5, popular vote 52 - 46.1 Karl Rove ([rove.com](http://rove.com)) has Obama wining the EC 338 - 200, don’t see a popular vote prediction. [realclearpolitics.com](http://realclearpolitics.com) has Obama in the EC 338 - 200, popular vote at 51.9 - 44.2 (but that’s if it’s forced to choose – it also shows 128 EC votes as up for grabs, with a clear 278 - 132 excluding those) CNN has the electoral split currently at Obama 291 (51%), McCain 157 (44%) and 5% undecided with 90 Electoral votes to close to call (Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida are the “neutral” states). Fox News has Obama up 51.9% to 44.4 for McCain. I don’t find an EC split out there. Gallup: Obama 55%, McCain 44% Pew Research: Obama 52%, McCain 46% Later today I’ll try to sort out the responses from folks into a table so we can see how things end up fairly quickly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/08-fantasy-electoral-college-game/465731.md?page=5)