The reason the numbers don’t appear to be random is that you are looking at one discrete segment of outcomes, and not at the list of all possible outcomes (a long list, in the case of the lottery.) Try flipping a coin one hundred times. It doesn’t come out H-T-H-T-H-T-H-; on the contrary, you can easily get runs of four or five heads in a row. This doesn’t mean that flipping a coin isn’t random. Many people jump to the conclusion that the laws of probability determine the outcome of a random event, when in fact they determine the indeterminibility of the outcome of a random event. Taken to extremes, this means that there is no particular reason why the same winning lottery number can’t be drawn two weeks in a row; it’s just that this probably won’t happen.
Oops. I always forget that!
My formula: 1/50 x 1/49 … 1/45
The right formula: 6/50 x 5/49 … 1/45
Thanks for bringing me back down. I always need it.
Besides which, that’s a dollar now, compared to millions spead out over 10 years. I’ve heard that after the cash option and taxes, you only get 1/4 to 1/6 of your published amount. (Is this stat close to accurate?) So you’d need a jackpot amount of, well, lots of money for it to be a >1 proposition.
Also, state lotteries are typically about as random as you can get. This is because if there were a pattern, people would find it, and they’d use it. And it wouldn’t be Sam the, mechanic, who crunches the numbers and gets a workable pattern. The lottery, after all, makes money off the little guy, picking his dog’s birthday, knowing his chances are as good as anyones. So they have a vested interest in keeping it random.
-Quadell
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Probability does seem kind of soft. I mean, flip a coin ten times and you might get ten heads, and that 1/2 probability kinda turns to jello.
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If you flip a coin nine times, and it comes up heads each time, then the odds of the next flip being a heads in 50-50. One of of every 1024 series of 10 flips of heads in a row would be a 50% chance. Flip a coin 1033 times and see what you come up with.
Jim Petty
A Snappy message should appear here
[quote]
Probability does seem kind of soft. I mean, flip a coin ten times and you might get ten heads, and that 1/2 probability kinda turns to jello.
[quote]
If you flip a coin nine times, and it comes up heads each time, then the odds of the next flip being a heads in 50-50. One of of every 1024 series of 10 flips of heads in a row would be a 50% chance. Flip a coin 1033 times and see what you come up with.
Jim Petty
A Snappy message should appear here
[quote]
Probability does seem kind of soft. I mean, flip a coin ten times and you might get ten heads, and that 1/2 probability kinda turns to jello.
[quote]
If you flip a coin nine times, and it comes up heads each time, then the odds of the next flip being a heads in 50-50. One of of every 1024 series of 10 flips of heads in a row would be a 50% chance. Flip a coin 1033 times and see what you come up with.
Jim Petty
A Snappy message should appear here
[quote]
Probability does seem kind of soft. I mean, flip a coin ten times and you might get ten heads, and that 1/2 probability kinda turns to jello.
[quote]
If you flip a coin nine times, and it comes up heads each time, then the odds of the next flip being a heads in 50-50. One of of every 1024 series of 10 flips of heads in a row would be a 50% chance. Flip a coin 1033 times and see what you come up with.
Jim Petty
A Snappy message should appear here
Jimpy: What’s the probability of your post appearing four times in a rowD)?
I’d say probably about the same as my mastering one day the intricacies of the smiliesD)
But if you flip a coin 999 times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds the next flip will come up heads?
I’d say about 100%.
“For what a man had rather were true, he more readily believes” - Francis Bacon
Sounds to me like your chances of being crushed to death are pretty darn good, too.