# 1 in 100 million catch **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 8, 2014, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1-in-100-million-catch/697909 "2014-09-08T21:03:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 3\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2014, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1-in-100-million-catch/697909/1 "2014-09-08T21:03:50Z")
Two lobsters were caught last week that are said to be a 1 in 100 million find. If they catch one more should they re-evaluate the odds? ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2014, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1-in-100-million-catch/697909/2 "2014-09-08T21:29:18Z")
According to Wikipedia, the [2010 catch](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobster_fishing) for homarus americanus (the American lobster) was 115,651 tons. At an average weight of 0.5 kg ([according to the University of Michigan](http://animaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu/accounts/Homarus_americanus/)), that works out to approximately 210,274,545 lobsters (assuming we’re talking US short tons). So a ‘1 in 100 million find’ should happen a little more than twice a year, on average. ---
**Author:** ![Isilder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/cc9497/32.png) [@Isilder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isilder)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2014, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1-in-100-million-catch/697909/3 "2014-09-08T22:04:28Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Two lobsters were caught last week that are said to be a 1 in 100 million find. If they catch one more should they re-evaluate the odds? I’d say that the odds are definitely inaccurate, but I’d say they were always were , further information does not change my distrust of those odds.