1 Million people on Mars and building a Martian Industrial Base

[Dr.Strangelove]

@Broomstick

However, the long supply chain required to produce semi-conductors would be a nightmare to either transport or set up on Mars even though they will undoubtedly need such technology. So the colony probably won’t be self-supporting all ways and shipping computer chips to Mars would probably be the least-insane alternative.

Right. But even more generally, what I think needs to be considered is the the spectrum of possibility between things which are “easy” vs. things which have a long supply chain. Semiconductors represent the endpoint of the spectrum: they’re small and “concentrated”, but probably require a billion people to produce if you follow everything back to the beginning. On the other hand, something like a brick can be made with basically dirt. And all along this spectrum, we can divide things between “stuff that an industrial base with population X” can produce vs. not.

The shape of that curve will determine how the industrial base grows–if it’s even possible to grow past a certain point. It may be that there’s some bottleneck in there, where it’s too expensive to support X people but they need 10X people to produce that thing locally and avoid the import cost. So they just end up stuck at some population level based on the funding they do get from governments or otherwise.

But on the other hand, it also depends on how things are produced, which is where I was going with my earlier keyboard example. Some items we buy have a long supply chain just because we already have one on Earth and it might be the cheapest method of production. 3D printing is hardly used for mass production because it’s slow and expensive, but if transport is expensive it makes far more sense. The products themselves can be designed in a way that wouldn’t make sense here but reduces the import requirements to the bare minimum.

What I’d like to see is a kind of database, like Wikipedia or Thingiverse or something, but for common objects designed for production with the bare minimum inputs. I’ve seen this approach with 3D printers: printers that can nearly print themselves, with almost all the structure and even the moving parts printable. Just the motors, electronics, and hot parts are necessary, which are maybe 5% of the total mass. It’s a good start. The trouble is that we need designs for the thousands of household items a settler might need. And not all of them will be amenable to 3D printing with plastic; other production approaches will have to be taken as well.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

Definitely. But it’s a scientifc base, wholly supplied from the outside and not having to produce anything for themselves (maybe water from the ice).
There are no kids, shops (“real” ones) or activities not connected to McMurdoing.
You can’t build either a city nor an indsutrial base there and McMurdo is just around the corner.

[Broomstick]

@Aji_de_Gallina

Definitely. But it’s a scientifc base, wholly supplied from the outside and not having to produce anything for themselves (maybe water from the ice).

McMurdo makes fresh water from the sea via desalinization plant, which I already mentioned upthread.

@Aji_de_Gallina

There are no kids,

At least 11 people have been born in Antarctica because when healthy young people live in close proximity sex happens and sometimes babies. Esperanza Base on the Hope Pennisula even has a school for the children living there and while it’s not McMurdo it is very much in Antarctica, a permanent base with several families living there long term.

@Aji_de_Gallina

shops (“real” ones)

It has a general store. A common feature of outposts and colonies for centuries. There are actual choices and the people who shop there have to pay in real money (or at least use a debit/credit card). Don’t forget, they get tourists in the summer - this store is the “Ye Olde Giftte Shoppe” as well as the supply center. Not the only store on the continent, either - other stations have one, too, although McMurdo’s is reportedly the largest.

@Aji_de_Gallina

activities not connected to McMurdoing.

Really? Let’s just forget about the Race Around the World, Icestock Music Festival, the Scott Hutt Race, not one but THREE marathons every year, the Ross Island Rugby Cup, the 300 Club and slightly less daunting 200 Club, and that’s just a few.

You see, when people live for extended periods in isolated places they need more than just work, work, work. This has been known for a long time. Heck, there was the so-called Skylab Strike back in 1973. Personnel on the ISS get a certain amount of free time every day to do what they wish and in one instance some guy used it to record a David Bowie cover music video. And then there is flower arranging by a steely-eyed missile-man:

The point being that not only COULD there be “non-McMurdo stuff” in McMurdo and every other Antarctic outpost, but humans also do “silly” non-science and non-engineering stuff even in the most isolated and remote outposts including those in space RIGHT NOW.

Absolutely we COULD have a city on Antarctica - Esperanza base qualifies as a (very) small town right now. McMurdo could have permanent residents, there is zero technological barrier to that, only policies that can be changed and/or rescinded should that be desired. Even now, folks posted long-term to space do totally “useless” things like dressing up for Halloween:

You’re right - the people in a place like McMurdo or the ISS don’t have to produce anything… but they do. They produce recreation, music, new traditions, sub-cultures… because that’s what people do. They do that despite limitations on material supplies, space in which to move, and free time.

Hell, BOTH McMurdo and the ISS have hydroponics and grow food not because they need to do so, but because it’s something people do. And while most of what’s grown on the ISS is shipped back to Earth for analysis and study the folks up there do get to eat fresh salad once in awhile or arrange a few flowers to decorate the “bay window”.

If we have a Moon outpost or one on Mars we’ll see this sort of thing, too - because it’s essential for human mental health. The last thing you want on a multi-billion (or trillion) dollar expedition is for the crew to go insane.

[MrDibble]

@Sam_Stone

Why terraform Mars, when you can pressurize a 5 km in diameter underground lava dome? The Moon is riddled with underground voids - about 12% of the crust consists of voids. The Marius Hills has an open skylight into a lava tube 80 meters deep, hundreds of meters wide, and many kilometers in length. There are hundreds of such tubes on the Moon.
[…]
Sealing a portion of such a tube has to be much, much easier than building a surface habitat on mars. Martian habitats still have to protect you from cosmic rays and solar storms, so you’re likely to be underground in some way, or at least have the houses buried in Martian regolith.

Just a couple notes -

1. While the hollow lava tubes certainly exist and would make great targets for habitats, the lunar volcanic domes are most likely solid, not hollow.
2. There are volcanic tubes on Mars too. So the arguments about the advantages of these for the Moon go for Mars, too.

[cannon_gray]

@Ryan_Liam

Also, how would Martian colonisation influence Human development overall in terms of innovation and creativity?

It will influence our life a lot, really. Even now lots of space technologies were created for astronauts living particularly in space are widely used in our life, e.g. cordless power tools - portable vacuum cleaners invented for space, sports insoles designed for the Apollo astronaut suits. For many years, engineers have been struggling with the problem of icing on the wings and engines of aircraft. Today, their discovery is not only an integral part of the aviation industry but also protects railways, tap water filters and the list is not ended yet.