# 10/15/11 - All illegal aliens leave the U.S. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 7, 2011, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926 "2011-10-07T19:26:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Naxos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/50afbb/32.png) [@Naxos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Naxos)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/41 "2011-10-10T00:19:08Z")
> [@spooje](#): > > on 10/15/11, all illegal aliens leave the U.S., either by choice or by force. Let’s iclude those who are incarcerated. They are released and deported. This is neither pro- nor anti-immigration, take it as a given with no judgment attached. > > So…what happens on 10/16/11?.. All mainstream conservative political entities shove their defining discrimination ideology up their a$$, because the unending sea of drones who have been blindly hating anyone with a dark skin under the affront of “illegal alien”, are affected drastically by losing their jobs and having their living standard dive through the floor, at a rate 10x than it has been already in the past 30 years due to the prevalent conservative policies implemented in the US that consistently funnel the country’s wealth to the richer 5% of the population. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/42 "2011-10-10T02:10:23Z")
> [@spooje](#): > > What will we gain, what will we lose? 1. The [National Research Council](http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5779&page=334#p2000633a9960334001)looked at this in in 1996, and found that unskilled immigrants on average collect $126,000 net present value (2011 dollars) more in their lifetime than they pay in taxes. 2. You’ll also avoid a lowering of human capital downstream by reducing the number of people requiring affirmative action. Educational stats [here](http://www.frumforum.com/the-future-costs-of-todays-cheap-labor) and [here](http://articles.cnn.com/2009-05-05/us/dropout.rate.study_1_dropouts-enrollment-graduations/2?_s=PM:US). ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/43 "2011-10-10T10:13:23Z")
> [@Mehitabel](#): > > If you’re extending the term “illegal aliens” to mean everyone who, due to expired visas or non-work ones, shouldn’t be doing what they’re doing where they’re doing it, lots of students wouldn’t show up for classes from kindergarten to doctorate programs. Or people who are doing every step they have to do, but whose paperwork is late because it’s in government limbo. I once worked for three months under a valid visa and with a valid SSN, but with no valid SS card - that’s how long it took for the government to decide I probably wasn’t a terrorist. And this was simply getting a piece of paper without the “student” stamp on it, the backlog for visa renewals and green card reviews is horrific. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/44 "2011-10-10T10:23:57Z")
One of the consequences of the current crisis in Spain is that many immigrants have gone back home (c. 480.000 per a newspaper article I read yesterday - this is about 1% of our population): many of them intended to do it whenever they retired, so they’re doing it earlier than expected but it was always in the plans. The consequences aren’t clear yet and won’t be for a while, but the majority of those who are kwnown to have left were “legal”: they paid SS and income tax, which people working under the table don’t (under the table economy is so common here that paper-less workers don’t bother get fake papers, there are many Spaniards who choose to work under the table). We know how much their leaving means in terms of “less income to SS”, but not how much it means of “less expenses for SS”, less educational expenses… and we know that our economy is hiding under the table worse than in the “fat cow years”. I think if everybody who’s illegally in the US left, it would mean some people who are there legally leaving too (children, spouses). What I can’t estimate is how many would that be. ---
**Author:** ![Lynn\_Bodoni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e47c2d/32.png) [@Lynn\_Bodoni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lynn_Bodoni)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/45 "2011-10-10T12:14:20Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > Well, since you obviously hang out with the underemployed youth–how many of them have actually applied for those jobs? Quite a lot of them. The kids mostly DO want a job. Some of them are entitled princes and princesses who just want a paycheck without working for it, but a lot of them do want to have a job, and make some money. Some of them even want to make money for the benefit of their families, not just to have some spending money for frivolous things. A big problem is that criminal activity does pay off very well, in the short run. Of course, that’s another issue that we need to address… ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/46 "2011-10-10T17:53:58Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > 1. The [National Research Council](http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5779&page=334#p2000633a9960334001)looked at this in in 1996, and found that unskilled immigrants on average collect $126,000 net present value (2011 dollars) more in their lifetime than they pay in taxes. The magic question: How does that compare to similarly unskilled non-illegal workers? The second magic question: What proportion of illegal immigrants are “unskilled”? The magic observation: Descendants of immigrants pay for their parents and then some. ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/47 "2011-10-10T18:50:03Z")
> [@CitizenPained](#): > > I’m a teacher, so…I’d lose my job. Wait – how did you get to be a teacher if you are not a legal resident? It’s my impression that one would have to be able to show legal residency in order to get a job of that kind. Certainly my school board would not have hired anyone who did not have a legal right to be here. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/48 "2011-10-10T19:19:21Z")
I was listening to the radio on Saturday. A story about a tomato farmer in Alabama who had literally overnight lost most of his workforce because of new anti-illegal immigrant legislation. He said he had seven Americans apply for positions. Only one showed up for work, and he only picked four bushels (or whatever the unit was) before quitting that very day. Great goodness, I thought to myself. But then the guy said something that made me raise an eyebrow. He said the Mexicans just know how to pick tomatoes better than anyone else. It’s a cultural thing, he said. Not anyone can do it. The interviewer asked if you could then view a good tomato picker as a skilled laborer, rather than unskilled. The farmer didn’t miss a beat. He said a good tomato picker is a _highly_ skilled laborer. That by the time he got done training someone to pick tomatoes, the tomato season would be over and done with. So tomato picking is a highly skilled job, according to a guy who would know. As with any highly-skilled position, you have to pay wages commiserate with the work. I do highly skilled work, so I get paid the salary of a professional. This is called fairness. We have not been doing this for a big sector of our economy (agricultural laborers), and yet we have grown accostomed to thinking that this is fair. That we are entitled to cheap tomatoes. That because picking them doesn’t require a college degree, it means “unskilled” and thus “low wage” work. So we have been paying artificially depressed prices all this time. The farmers, consumers…all of us have been working the system for our benefit all this time. Since forever. Just because capitalism has _always_ worked this way. To me, it’s not even a question about illegal and legal. It’s about exploitation. I don’t know if offering tomato pickers $40,000 a year plus benefits will make the whole illegal alien question go away, but I know one thing. I’m not going to whine about the high cost of groceries or my less-than-ideal salary any more. What’s the point? The free market is an illusion. People aren’t being paid what their labor is worth. They are being paid what other people think they deserve and they just go along with it because they have no choice. There is a big difference between these two things. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/49 "2011-10-10T19:30:00Z")
> [@MLS](#): > > Wait – how did you get to be a teacher if you are not a legal resident? It’s my impression that one would have to be able to show legal residency in order to get a job of that kind. Certainly my school board would not have hired anyone who did not have a legal right to be here. I think she’s worried about getting fired due to all the children of illegal immigrants leaving with their parents, leaving fewer classrooms needing to be staffed. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/50 "2011-10-10T23:50:39Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > The magic question: How does that compare to similarly unskilled non-illegal workers? > The second magic question: What proportion of illegal immigrants are “unskilled”? > > The magic observation: Descendants of immigrants pay for their parents and then some. It depends on the educational profile of the immigrants if their descendants actually pay for their parents. For those who don’t complete High School, the US born descendants do not make up for the costs created by their parents. In terms of your second question: > [@](#): > > Dr. Hanson stated that around 60 percent of illegal immigrants have less than a high school education and compete for low-skilled jobs with native workers. He observed that economic theory would predict downward wage pressure as the result of the increase in the supply of workers in the U.S. economy. He noted the disagreement among economists, however, as to whether the data allows such a conclusion, indicating that studies on wage trends in different local labor markets often find small effects, and studies that look at wages on a national basis find larger effects. He stated that the strongest adverse impacts would be felt by workers competing for jobs with immigrants directly, that is, by low-skilled native workers. > > He did not address the effects of illegal immigration separately. Dr. Hanson‘s coauthored research suggested that a 10 percent immigrant-induced increase in the labor supply is associated with a 4 percent decrease in black wages, a 3.5 percent decrease in the black employment rate, and a 0.8 percent increase in the black incarceration rate.11 This correlation held true in both national and state-level data, according to Hanson… > > Dr. Briggs emphasized that the distinguishing characteristic of the illegal immigrant population is that 81 percent of them are probably in the low-skill sector of the job market; about 57 percent of them are without a high school diploma, and 24 percent have only a high school diploma. \*The Impact of Illegal Immigration on the Wages and Employment Opportunities of Black Workers \* A Briefing Before The United States Commission on Civil Rights Briefing Report > **[IllegImmig\_10-14-10\_430pm.pdf](https://www.usccr.gov/files/pubs/docs/IllegImmig_10-14-10_430pm.pdf)** > > 893.77 KB ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/51 "2011-10-10T23:59:05Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > It depends on the educational profile of the immigrants if their descendants actually pay for their parents. For those who don’t complete High School, the US born descendants do not make up for the costs created by their parents Which is apparently a small proportion of immigrants, since the overall over/under shows a generally positive overall rate of return for immigrants+their descendants. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Negative](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/typo_negative/32/484_2.png) [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/52 "2011-10-11T02:00:21Z")
What about lost revenues? We have heard about illegals working under the table and not paying taxes, but I wonder how many out there ARE paying taxes under phony social security numbers. 11 million consumers go bye-bye. Is the loss in sales enough to impact large business? (certainly some small mom-n-pop operations would fail) How much do we lose in sales tax, income tax, fuel tax, tobacco tax… Remember, we are not just talking about Hispanics. Surely there are illegals walking among us who pass undetected for the most part and pulling down decent money. And some illegal Hispanics are making a good living. They buy cars, clothes, groceries, medical supplies, booze and cigarettes, they rent properties and I’m sure some have bought properties. How far up the food chain would these losses be felt? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/53 "2011-10-11T02:18:59Z")
> [@spooje](#): > > What about lost revenues? We have heard about illegals working under the table and not paying taxes, but I wonder how many out there ARE paying taxes under phony social security numbers. I linked to a [2005 story](http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/05/business/05immigration.html?ei=5090&en=78c87ac4641dc383&ex=1270353600&partner=kmarx&pagewanted=all&position=) on that upthread. > [@](#): > > As the debate over Social Security heats up, the estimated seven million or so illegal immigrant workers in the United States are now providing the system with a subsidy of as much as $7 billion a year. > > While it has been evident for years that illegal immigrants pay a variety of taxes, the extent of their contributions to Social Security is striking: the money added up to about 10 percent of last year’s surplus - the difference between what the system currently receives in payroll taxes and what it doles out in pension benefits. Moreover, the money paid by illegal workers and their employers is factored into all the Social Security Administration’s projections. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/54 "2011-10-11T02:32:13Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > Which is apparently a small proportion of immigrants, since the overall over/under shows a generally positive overall rate of return for immigrants+their descendants. But a high proportion of illegal aliens. > [@](#): > > Dr. Hanson stated that around 60 percent of illegal immigrants have less than a high school education and compete for low-skilled jobs with native workers. He observed that economic theory would predict downward wage pressure as the result of the increase in the supply of workers in the U.S. economy. He noted the disagreement among economists, however, as to whether the data allows such a conclusion, indicating that studies on wage trends in different local labor markets often find small effects, and studies that look at wages on a national basis find larger effects. He stated that the strongest adverse impacts would be felt by workers competing for jobs with immigrants directly, that is, by low-skilled native workers. > > He did not address the effects of illegal immigration separately. Dr. Hanson‘s coauthored research suggested that a 10 percent immigrant-induced increase in the labor supply is associated with a 4 percent decrease in black wages, a 3.5 percent decrease in the black employment rate, and a 0.8 percent increase in the black incarceration rate.11 This correlation held true in both national and state-level data, according to Hanson… > > Dr. Briggs emphasized that the distinguishing characteristic of the illegal immigrant population is that 81 percent of them are probably in the low-skill sector of the job market; about 57 percent of them are without a high school diploma, and 24 percent have only a high school diploma. The Impact of Illegal Immigration on the Wages and Employment Opportunities of Black Workers A Briefing Before The United States Commission on Civil Rights Briefing Report > **[IllegImmig\_10-14-10\_430pm.pdf](https://www.usccr.gov/files/pubs/docs/IllegImmig_10-14-10_430pm.pdf)** > > 893.77 KB ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/55 "2011-10-11T02:37:30Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I linked to a [2005 story](http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/05/business/05immigration.html?ei=5090&en=78c87ac4641dc383&ex=1270353600&partner=kmarx&pagewanted=all&position=) on that upthread. Unfortunately, they take out far more in other [expenses](http://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/illegal-immigration/but-they-are-funding-social-security-system.html): > [@](#): > > The illegal alien lobby frequently touts the statistic that illegal alien workers contribute $7 billion each year to Social Security. They fail to note that for every $1 illegal aliens contribute to Social Security, they withdraw $10 in other government benefits. > [@](#): > > [But it costs $14.2 billion each year to imprison illegal aliens](http://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/state-policies/but-they-are-funding-social-security-system-part-ii.html) for other crimes they commit. It’s as if they are putting money into one of Uncle Sam’s pockets, while pilfering twice the amount from the other. > > As discussed in Part I, the New York Times wrote in a 2005 article, “The estimated seven million or so illegal immigrant workers in the United States are now providing the system with a subsidy of as much as $7 billion a year.” When, in that same year, this writer met the majority leader of the Virginia Senate, Richard L. Saslaw, he immediately quoted that statistic when the subject of illegal immigration was raised. > > But the incarceration of illegal aliens convicted of non-immigration crimes (criminal aliens) costs the federal prison system about $1.2 billion per year,1 and the state and local prison system more than $13 billion per year.2 That is a total of $14.2 billion dollars. Federal, state, or local, the money for the incarceration expense comes from the United States taxpayer, just like the money that funds social security. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/56 "2011-10-11T03:14:21Z")
Ah, yes, of course brown people are all evil and the source of all the problems in the country. How could I _ever_ have forgotten that. :rolleyes: Do you really want to extend that little calculus of yours? Just how much have rich white guys cost the country recently? Far, far more than those terrible brown immigrants, I’m sure. Or is it that only the crimes of brown poor people should be counted against them? ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/57 "2011-10-11T03:19:15Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > But a high proportion of illegal aliens. That sounds like a good chicken-and-egg problem right there. Are illegal immigrant wages/contributions inherently depressed, or depressed because of the fact of their illegality plus job demand? ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Negative](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/typo_negative/32/484_2.png) [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/58 "2011-10-11T20:24:49Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Unfortunately, they take out far more in other [expenses](http://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/illegal-immigration/but-they-are-funding-social-security-system.html): We’re not calling imprisonment a benefit are we? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/59 "2011-10-11T20:27:53Z")
> [@spooje](#): > > We’re not calling imprisonment a benefit are we? Three hots and a cot, lots of people would kill for that. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2011, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926/60 "2011-10-11T20:39:27Z")
> [@spooje](#): > > We’re not calling imprisonment a benefit are we? I halfway expect for someone to start saying that illegal immigrants who get shot are “stealing our hard-earned lead”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-15-11-all-illegal-aliens-leave-the-u-s/598926.md?page=4)