He also had a 1900 idea of the intricacy of the ecosystem. Back then, the idea of wiping out pest species was seen as a splendid idea. Now, we know that total extermination of flies, mosquitoes, mice, rats, etc. would screw up the environment big time.
Pretty close in most respects. It’s not surprising that he missed airplanes in 1900, it was considered impossible by many, and only a handful of people knew the Wright Brothers were on the track to making it possible in a few years.
Futurism is often highly predictive though. It’s a lot easier to see where science and technology will lead us a century later than over a few years. The details of the mechanisms tend to fail though. We aren’t dependent on pneumatic tubes the way someone might have thought in 1900. Or that cars would not only be less expensive than horses, but far more readily used and maintained as well. Hot and cold air spigots are impractical, and the details of modern HVAC systems weren’t known, but the concept speaks to an understanding of human desires and priorities.
Prediction: In the future, transportation and long-distance communication will both be significantly easier and cheaper, revolutionizing culture and commerce. Medical science will have advanced, though unfortunately we will still not have eradicated disease from the Earth. And, finally, people will find the way we currently talk and dress comically old-fashioned.
Hey, I’m a visionary!
Does anyone want to take a stab at explaining the whole thing about goats, sheep and cows not having horns? Why would he specifically state that these animals wouldn’t have horns?
Probably an illustration of our mastery of inheritance and breeding. He probably couldn’t think of any practical example like glow in the dark cats.
i’d give him partial credit on that. there are breeds where the horns were bred out. polled herefords and angus come to mind there. there are also polled sheep and goats.
as to why, the hornless animals are less likely to hurt each other and the farmer. many dairy farmers will dehorn their holsteins when they are young to keep injuries down. just easier to handle, esp. in a dairy where you and the cows are in a building together. hoofs and size (not to mention elimination) are more than enough to give one a healthy respect for a cow.
sheep skin is very, very, difficult to fix when it is cut; it does not suture well.
“He will live fifty years instead of thirty-five at present.”
Now, wait a minute. The average life span for an American in 1900 was 35 years? And yet, more than 100 years before that, 35 was set to be the minimum age to become president of the U.S. Something seems fishy here. It might just be that many died at birth or at least as children, and that brought down the average. Shouldn’t the prediction have said that though?
By my count, there are 90 predictions. I gave full credit for 45 of them, and partial credit for another 12. 57 correct or partly correct of 90 is very damn good IMO, way better than I can do.
Oh yeah, there is one I couldn’t rank – hornless cattle and sheep. Are there such things? Were there back then?
Anyway, here’t the list as I interpreted it. Each is followed by a numeric score, and some of those are followed by comments.
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population 350-500 million. 3/4 credit. If it weren’t for a couple of big wars and the flu epidemic that killed as many as both put together, odds are we’d be there.
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South American countries will joint the union. 0 credit. No, but had they done so we would have easily met the population prediction.
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Taller Americans, +1
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Live longer, 1/2 credit (underestimated the increase)
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Live in burbs, 1/2
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No city houses, 0
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blocks of homes illegal, 0
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high speed commute, 1/2 (rail and car)
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almost free comute, 0
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cxo disappear, 0
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phonetic spelling, 0
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english condensed 1/2 (for texting and internet and twitter)
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English most popular, +1 (I give credit for this because the lists that say Mandarin is the most frequently used one refer to native speakers, but if you add all the people who speak at least some English, it comes out ahead.
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Russian #2 language, 0
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Hot and cold air by spigots, 1 (it’s not the only way, but forced air heaating and A/c is common)
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Hot and cold air from Central plants, 1/4 credit for steam lines.
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No Chimneys, 0
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no pest insects, 0
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Readycooked meals bought, 1
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wholesale food shopping by venndors, 1
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purchased food cheaper than home cooked, 0
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delivery of hot food by vehicle or tube, 1
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dishes returned to vendor, 0
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cooking in electric laboratories, 1 (close enough to food processing plants)
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sanitary treatment of food utensils, 1
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Buying and cooking food ppersonally and extravagance, 0
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no open air food, 0
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refrigerators, 1
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no personal use of coal, 1
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rise of hydro power, 1/2 (not so widespread as predicted)
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No street cars in cities, 0 (from the context I think this means vehicles at street level)
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quiet cities, 0
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Electronic communication of images, 1
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color photos, 1
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150 mph trains, 1
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cross-continental travel in a day, 1 (though by plane, not train)
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Cars with a/c, 1
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no more coal trains, 1
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environmentally controlled trains, 1
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Car cheaper than horses, 0 (far more practical and common, but not cheaper)
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motorized far equipment, 1
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autmoobile sleighs, 1 (snow mobiles)
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autos take over practially all individual transport, 1
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Horses disappear from public life, 1
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spread of physical fitness culture, 1/2 (didn’t spread so widely)
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High speed ocean cruising in hydrofoils/submersibles, 0
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Airships that fail against rail and ships, 1 (zeppelins did in fact fail to compete)
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long-rage artillery, 1
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combat airships, 0
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observation airships, 1
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bomb proof bunkers, 1
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tanks, 1
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trench warfare with faster built trenches, 1 (not real common, but possible)
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silenced bullets, 1/2 (partial credit for suppressed weapons)
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improved photo reconnaisance, 1
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no wild animals, 0
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vermin exterminated, 0
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A few horses left for plathings, 1
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Hornless cattle and sheep, ??? no idea (aren’t there varieties without horns? Weren’t there?)
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Obese and not hardy cattle and sheep, 1
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World video capability, 1
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world audeo capability, 1
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elimination of telephone operators, 1
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music piped into homes, 1
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remote control musical instruments, 0
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public orchestras, 1
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Many new musical instruments, 1
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free public education, 1 (in some countries)
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More efficient teaching methods, 1
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need based scholarships for room & board, 1
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free medical care for children, 1/2 (not universal, but there are such programs)
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free educational travel for poor children, 0
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Etiquette and houskeeing in schools, 0
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wide use of pneumatic tubes, 1/4 (the idea has already come and gone)
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electrically heated farm fields, 0
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green house farming, 1
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grow lights, 1 (though not widely used, and mostly for illegal crops)
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Electric-stimulated crop growth, 0
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all-season seasonal foods, 1
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longer shelf life for produce, 1/2 (not as much progress as predicted)
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Giant fruits, 0
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giant vegetables, 0
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Sugar from cane more than beets by two to one margin, 1, (almost exactly true, it’s 70/30)
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cheap native natural rubber, 0
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disease resistant plants, 1
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plants that create fertilizer for the soil, 0
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more rose colors, 1
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giant decorative flowers, 0
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transfer characteristics from one plant to another, 1
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drugs applied via electricity, 0
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much better medical imaging, 1
I’d give some credit. Smoky coal and wood furnaces are nearly gone, probably most chimneys are for seldom used fireplaces.
There’s a variety of cases where this is true. When you factor in cost of travel to the grocery cost, the cost of cooking, cleaning, and waste, on top of the basic ingredients, you can buy prepared food at a lower cost in a number of cases.
Re-usable glass bottles were very popular for a long time, and still in use on a smaller scale. Also, recycling of aluminum cans is close to this concept.
Per mile and per pound of passenger and cargo cars must cost way less than horses.
Certainly possible, and done in a few cases.
These have been portions of the American educational program, and still are to some extent.
Not quite on, but manufactured nutrients and fertilizers are common.
Not as big as predicted, but we grow fruits and veggies that are much larger than they were 100 years ago.
We don’t have a biological replacement for the rubber tree, but we’ve developed home grown synthetic products.
We use crops to fix nitrogen in soil, and other means of improving soil nutrition are used. I’m surprised this wasn’t done a century ago.
Not as described, but there are various devices which deliver drugs directly to organs, and the pacemaker and other devices which literally deliver electricity to the heart.
There are lots of ways to interpret the predictions. For instance, I chose to interpret “airships” as zeppelins and blimps, but others might equate them to aircraft and give credit on that basis. So it’s not a surprise that you and others would see slightly different predictions, and therefor slightly different results.
You all would be wrong, of course. 