# 100% chance at $1.08M or 97% at $36M? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 22, 2017, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402 "2017-11-22T14:03:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/1 "2017-11-22T14:03:31Z")
Another risk adversity question. For all you hypothetical pokers, please assume that this is on the level and I have motives that are my own for offering it. Add in any supplemental details and reframe how you like to make you comfortable with accepting the deal is straight-up. So, I’ve got a standard roulette table numbered 0-36, 37 slots, the wheel is completely fair. I’ll either give you 37 $30,000 chips or 36 $1 million chips. You place them each in a single number and spin. For the first it’s a formality, you’ll get $1,080,000 regardless, for the second you have a 97.2% of walking away with a cool $36 Million but a 2.8% of nothing. My previous risk adversity question showed dopers to be, imo, very risk adverse. I’m curious what this will come up with. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/2 "2017-11-22T14:05:57Z")
I’d go for the 37 million. I can live with myself not winning a million bucks. That money makes life easier, but it’s all just retirement money for me. $37 mil is life changing money. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/3 "2017-11-22T14:08:48Z")
I would take my shot at the $36 million. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/4 "2017-11-22T14:09:38Z")
That’s an extremely difficult choice. 1.08 along with the money I already have would _almost_ be enough to let me do whatever I want for the rest of my life assuming no bank-breaking illnesses and avoiding extreme frivolities. If it were 2 mill versus 70 mill I’d take the 2. As it stands i’d probably try for the 36. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/5 "2017-11-22T14:17:52Z")
I’d try for the $36 million. A little over $1 million would allow a few luxuries but mostly fatten my already adequate retirement savings; $36 million, handled with reasonable prudence, would be take-this-job-and-shove-it followed by a very comfortable lifestyle money. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/6 "2017-11-22T14:18:58Z")
And yes, I can see it says adversity, I originally had aversity, the spell checker changed it, I think I should have said averseness instead. ---
**Author:** ![CrimeThink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/90db22/32.png) [@CrimeThink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrimeThink)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/7 "2017-11-22T14:21:27Z")
The possibility of not having to work again ever is well worth the risk of losing a million dollars to me at this point in my life. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/8 "2017-11-22T14:22:32Z")
> [@Mr\_Shine](#): > > And yes, I can see it says adversity, I originally had aversity, the spell checker changed it, I think I should have said averseness instead. Or aversion. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/9 "2017-11-22T14:30:16Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’d go for the 37 million. I can live with myself not winning a million bucks. That money makes life easier, but it’s all just retirement money for me. $37 mil is life changing money. Exactly what I say. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/10 "2017-11-22T14:45:33Z")
I’d go for the 37 million. As others have already noted 1.08 million would mean a nice retirement, but 37M would be life-changing. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/11 "2017-11-22T14:48:57Z")
I’ll voted for the sure thing. But it just occurred to me I could buy my own 37th chip and get the big payoff. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/12 "2017-11-22T14:51:16Z")
> [@Mr\_Shine](#): > > So, I’ve got a standard roulette table numbered 0-36, 37 slots, the wheel is completely fair. I’ll either give you 37 $30,000 chips or 36 $1 million chips. I take the 36 $1 million chips, walk away from the wheel and cash them out. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/13 "2017-11-22T14:55:12Z")
I picked the sure thing, for the same reasoning as other posters picked the 97% chance, but with different parameters. For me, either amount of money would be equally life-changing, because with my lifestyle, a cool million is already enough to never need to work again (I still would anyway, because I enjoy my work, but it’d be a massive decrease in stress). If I’m getting the same effective value either way, then I’d like to maximize my odds of that value. ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/14 "2017-11-22T14:55:24Z")
I voted for the sure thing. I HATE gambling. I am likely to have a heart attack while the ball is spinning, if I gamble. Besides, I can invest $1m to pay out an annuity that, along with my husband’s pension, my smaller annuity I already have, and both our SS checks we’ll get at 65, will mean that by retirement age, we’ll be bringing in about $8,000/month. I can live on that, easy. Even before that, we’ll be doing quite well. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/15 "2017-11-22T14:59:17Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I’ll voted for the sure thing. But it just occurred to me I could buy my own 37th chip and get the big payoff. I like the way you think. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/16 "2017-11-22T14:59:30Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I picked the sure thing, for the same reasoning as other posters picked the 97% chance, but with different parameters. For me, either amount of money would be equally life-changing, because with my lifestyle, a cool million is already enough to never need to work again (I still would anyway, because I enjoy my work, but it’d be a massive decrease in stress). If I’m getting the same effective value either way, then I’d like to maximize my odds of that value. This is it for me too. I own a business, so would keep it going and probably do some expanding. A million would be plenty. And honestly, I don’t want a “life-changing” amount of money. I like my life, and most life changes that come with a massive infusion of cash usually aren’t good ones. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/17 "2017-11-22T15:01:45Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > I’d go for the 37 million. As others have already noted 1.08 million would mean a nice retirement, but 37M would be life-changing. I’d go for the 1.08 million, because I guess I am really risk-averse in some ways, and because for me, a nice retirement would actually be life-changing. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/18 "2017-11-22T15:06:32Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I’ll voted for the sure thing. But it just occurred to me I could buy my own 37th chip and get the big payoff. > [@Shodan](#): > > I like the way you think. > > Regards, > Shodan > [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > I take the 36 $1 million chips, walk away from the wheel and cash them out. You all get nothing! ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/19 "2017-11-22T15:08:35Z")
After taxes, the $1M payout would be more like $600K. Since the $600K would be a sure thing, and you would have to forego that sure thing in order to take a shot at the big prize, I can formulate an equivalent scenario: If my net worth is $600K + $X (where $X is my _actual_ current net worth), would I wager $600K for a 97% chance to win $36M? I don’t think I would, unless X were quite a bit bigger than it actually is right now, i.e. big enough that losing $600K wouldn’t dramatically alter my future. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2017, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402/20 "2017-11-22T15:11:37Z")
97% probability is virtually the same as 100%, so, easy choice; take big bucks. If you gave, say, only 70% odds for winning the $36 mil, that would be a tougher call. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/100-chance-at-1-08m-or-97-at-36m/802402.md?page=2)