# 15th Annual Superbowl Early Picks thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 3, 2018, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802 "2018-01-03T17:05:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/101 "2018-01-22T04:30:39Z")
I guess we never worked through the possibility that two people could have the same score, because they picked the same score, with one team wrong. If people are happy with “latest elimination of wrong team” as the tiebreaker there, that’s fine. I suppose there could still be an issue with that if the wrong picks were eliminated in the same round, for example if Jahiegel had picked the Panthers instead of the Vikings. There can still be a tie with the current rules, I think. If the Pats win 24-20, for example. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/102 "2018-01-22T05:04:52Z")
I do think depth of progress (how close a team got before elimination) is a good first tiebreaker. Because it kind of means something. But if the teams got as far as each other, it would have gone to you, based on the fact that your pick was earlier than his. Which is a bit arbitrary, but coins do not land on the edge. ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/103 "2018-01-22T11:32:08Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > I do think depth of progress (how close a team got before elimination) is a good first tiebreaker. Because it kind of means something. But if the teams got as far as each other, it would have gone to you, based on the fact that your pick was earlier than his. Which is a bit arbitrary, but coins do not land on the edge. Do you mean 1st tiebreaker after taking predicted/actual scores into account? Because that’s what the rules in place already say. I don’t think we can change the tiebreaker this late in the game. And I say that as someone who would benefit from a “how close a team got before elimination” tiebreaker. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/104 "2018-01-22T12:31:22Z")
If the Patriots win, and they score 34 points, who wins? There’s like five of us that picked that result and score. ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/105 "2018-01-22T12:49:37Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > If the Patriots win, and they score 34 points, who wins? There’s like five of us that picked that result and score. Whoever gets closest to the losing score as well. If there’s a tie there, then I think we can use depth of progress. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/106 "2018-01-22T15:38:57Z")
If the Pats win 34-29, then it’s a tie I think, since the Saints and Falcons lost in the same round: FoieGrasIsEvil: Patriots 34 Saints 30 Gorsnak: Patriots 34 Falcons 28 Also a tie for 24-20: Jahiegel: Patriots 24 Vikings 23 muldoonthief: Patriots 24 Vikings 17 Also, if the Pats win and score exactly 34, it doesn’t necessarily mean one of the people who picked Pats 34 wins. For example, if the Pats win 34-17 then Velocity’s pick of 35-17 is closest. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/107 "2018-01-22T15:39:17Z")
And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, a two-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion can be crowned. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/108 "2018-01-22T20:11:43Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > If the Pats win 34-29, then it’s a tie I think, since the Saints and Falcons lost in the same round: > > FoieGrasIsEvil: Patriots 34 Saints 30 > Gorsnak: Patriots 34 Falcons 28 > > Also a tie for 24-20: > > Jahiegel: Patriots 24 Vikings 23 > muldoonthief: Patriots 24 Vikings 17 > > Also, if the Pats win and score exactly 34, it doesn’t necessarily mean one of the people who picked Pats 34 wins. For example, if the Pats win 34-17 then Velocity’s pick of 35-17 is closest. If a tie lands on the line between two picks, as you have shown, my feeling is that the lower score would prevail, based on the fact that the overall scoring got that far but no further. Does that sound right? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/109 "2018-01-22T20:16:15Z")
I say if we get through the tiebreakers and it’s still a tie, then it’s a tie. Or everyone makes a prop bet now of how long the National Anthem will be. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/110 "2018-01-22T20:29:53Z")
Having read all the tie-breaker arguments, I only have one question: what does the score have to be for me to win? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/111 "2018-01-22T20:56:52Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > I say if we get through the tiebreakers and it’s still a tie, then it’s a tie. > > Or everyone makes a prop bet now of how long the National Anthem will be. Or how many new Bud Light “Dilly dilly!” commercials there will be. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/112 "2018-01-22T21:23:13Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > If a tie lands on the line between two picks, as you have shown, my feeling is that the lower score would prevail, based on the fact that the overall scoring got that far but no further. Does that sound right? I’d just call it a tie after going through the 5 items listed earlier in the thread, and add more items for next year if people want to handle further tiebreakers. I guess that logic would mean not doing the “latest eliminated” tiebreaker as well, though. My perspective is that for a fun contest like this, the score is already a pretty specific prediction, so if that still produces a tie then so be it. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/113 "2018-01-22T21:32:02Z")
I strongly favor dropping however many people are tied into an arena and whoever comes out alive is declared the victor. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/114 "2018-01-22T21:35:10Z")
Looking through the past challenges, I think this is the most people we’ve had alive going into the Super Bowl (mainly because no one expected the Eagles to succeed) ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/115 "2018-01-22T21:40:33Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > I’d just call it a tie after going through the 5 items listed earlier in the thread, and add more items for next year if people want to handle further tiebreakers. I guess that logic would mean not doing the “latest eliminated” tiebreaker as well, though. > > My perspective is that for a fun contest like this, the score is already a pretty specific prediction, so if that still produces a tie then so be it. What do you mean, tie?!? I thought this was 'Murica! There aren’t no ties in 'Murica! Bunch of sissy socialist soccer fans, you must be. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/116 "2018-01-22T22:52:01Z")
I guess it remains to be seen what will happen in two weeks. Hopefully the arguing and the throwing of the shoes and helmets and assistant coaches at each other will ultimately result in an outcome that is acceptable for everyone but #2. ---
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2018, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/117 "2018-01-22T23:22:19Z")
Congratulations phungi, you have a shot. LOL only 4 of you picked the eagles, remind me not to come here for betting advice! ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2018, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/118 "2018-02-04T21:36:44Z")
As gametime approaches, here is a summary of who is on track to take this year’s prize: **Pats Win** [ul] [li] **TriPolar** : Patriots 48 [del]Vikings[/del] 27[/li][li] **DSYoungEsq** : Patriots 45 [del]Panthers[/del] 17[/li][li] **zoog** : Patriots 38 [del]Vikings[/del] 31[/li][li] **Velocity** : Patriots 35 [del]Vikings[/del] 17[/li][li] **FoieGrasIsEvil** : Patriots 34 [del]Saints[/del] 30[/li][li] **Gorsnak** : Patriots 34 [del]Falcons[/del] 28[/li][li] **Telemark** : Patriots 34, [del]Vikings[/del] 24[/li][li] **Do Not Taunt** : Patriots 34 [del]Saints[/del] 21[/li][li] **It’s Not Rocket Surgery!** : Patriots 31 [del]Saints[/del] 26[/li][li] **Jack Batty** : Patriots 31 [del]Vikings[/del] 20[/li][li] **Kimble** : Patriots 30 [del]Vikings[/del] 28[/li][li] **Intergalactic Gladiator** : Patriots 27 [del]Vikings[/del] 24[/li][li] **ElvisL1ves** : Patriots 27 [del]Rams[/del] 17[/li][li] **Jahiegel** : Patriots 24 [del]Vikings[/del] 23[/li][li] **muldoonthief** : Patriots 24 [del]Vikings[/del] 17[/li][/ul] **Eagles Win** [ul] [li] **phungi** : Eagles 24 [del]Steelers[/del] 17[/ul][/li] Obviously, if the Eagles win, **phungi** gets the big prize. If the Patriots win, we first look at who got closest to the winning score. There are no even splits there, so if no one has the exact number of points from New England, there will be a clear winner. However, there are a few possible cases where more than one player picked the same winning score, which means we look at MoV (same as o/u). Here, there are a few cases where there could be an even split between picks. As I see it, a split would go to the lower pick, because the teams did score as many points as needed to cover the lower pick but not enough to cover the higher pick. I am currently seeing a handicap of NE -4.5 (48.5). Given their SB history, it would seem kind of foolish to put money on the Pats, but who knows. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/119 "2018-02-05T03:32:09Z")
Not much doubt about this one, > [@phungi](#): > > Eagles 24 Steelers 17 (dreamers gotta dream) no one else was even in the neighborhood. Congratulations to this year’s winner, the death shroom, **phungi** ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802/120 "2018-02-05T04:04:45Z")
Death 'shroom? I thought he was a fun dude? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/15th-annual-superbowl-early-picks-thread/805802.md?page=7)