# 19th Annual Super Bowl Early Picks Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [January 10, 2022, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529 "2022-01-10T17:04:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2022, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/81 "2022-01-23T16:57:57Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > FYI, I’m essentially dead Curses, that means I get no points for you in the death pool ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2022, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/82 "2022-01-23T17:00:38Z")
> [@Shoeless](#): > > … even though I picked GB in the Super Bowl, I’m glad they’re out. Same here. It’s so worth it to see that smug, GOP poster boy Rodgers slink off the field after another playoff choke. Best Regular Season Quarterback Ever? ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/83 "2022-01-24T00:01:59Z")
Still one game to go in the divisional round and only LoneRhino and Wilson remain perfect. Wow. ---
**Author:** ![LoneRhino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lonerhino/32/1311_2.png) [@LoneRhino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LoneRhino)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/84 "2022-01-24T00:18:40Z")
The only reason I picked the Rams is because I want to see Aaron Donald wreak havoc and I figured the Bengals weren’t going to be a popular choice. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/85 "2022-01-24T03:40:49Z")
There’s only 1 person left with the possibility of getting both teams. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/86 "2022-01-24T07:36:49Z")
Crazy games today! ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/87 "2022-01-24T15:22:50Z")
I hope they win. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/88 "2022-01-24T15:48:38Z")
Still Perfect: **LoneRhino:** Rams 34, Bengals 30 One Down: **dirtball:** Chiefs 24, ~~Buccaneers~~ 20 **PackerMan2:** Chiefs 31, ~~Buccaneers~~ 27 **Railer13:** Chiefs 31, ~~Packers~~ 27 **Frosted\_Glass:** Chiefs 31, ~~Packers~~ 28 **Jasmine:** Chiefs 37, ~~Packers~~ 33 **Wilson:** Rams 34, ~~Bills~~ 20 **iiandyiiii:** Bengals 31, ~~Cardinals~~ 24 **Askance:** 49ers 24, ~~Patriots~~ 18 **Jahiegel2.0:** ~~Buccaneers~~ 27, Chiefs 26 **Precambrianmollusc:** ~~Buccaneers~~ 31, Chiefs 27 **suntanlotiontwo:** ~~Buccaneers~~ 31, Chiefs 28 **Hampshire:** ~~Packers~~ 35, Bengals 23 **ShadowFacts:** ~~Packers~~ 30, Chiefs 27 **Hamlet:** ~~Packers~~ 30, Chiefs 28 **FlikTheBlue:** ~~Packers~~ 31, Chiefs 17 **Jackknifed\_Juggernaut:** ~~Packers~~ 33, Chiefs 24 **borshevsky:** ~~Packers~~ 34, Chiefs 28 **Procrustus:** ~~Titans~~ 38, Rams 27 **MadTheSwine:** ~~Cowboys~~ 48, Chiefs 45 Out: **Justin\_Bailey:** ~~Bills~~ 34, ~~Packers~~ 20 **pulykamell:** ~~Bills~~ 81, ~~Packers~~ 3 **AlsoNamedBort:** ~~Buccaneers~~ 31, ~~Bills~~ 24 **Zakalwe:** ~~Buccaneers~~ 31, ~~Titans~~ 24 **Telemark:** ~~Packers~~ 33, ~~Bills~~ 17 **Akaj:** ~~Packers~~ 27, ~~Titans~~ 13 **Bullitt:** ~~Packers~~ 35, ~~Titans~~ 31 **Velocity:** ~~Packers~~ 36, ~~Titans~~ 27 **muldoonthief:** ~~Titans~~ 34, ~~Buccaneers~~ 24 **Shoeless:** ~~Titans~~ 24, ~~Packers~~ 21 **eschereal:** ~~Bills~~ 9, ~~Cowboys~~ 2 **hajario:** ~~Buccaneers~~ 34, ~~Patriots~~ 17 **notfrommensa:** ~~Buccaneers~~ 34, ~~Patriots~~ 27 **Hal\_Briston:** ~~Packers~~ 23, ~~Patriots~~ 16 **AncientHumanoid:** ~~Cardinals~~ 30, ~~Bills~~ 28 **zimaane:** ~~Cowboys~~ 44, ~~Titans~~ 31 **Ulf\_the\_Unwashed:** ~~Patriots~~ 35, ~~Buccaneers~~ 24 **peccavi:** ~~Raiders~~ 34, ~~Buccaneers~~ 31 **Mighty\_Mouse:** ~~Patriots~~ 23, ~~Eagles~~ 17 ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/89 "2022-01-24T16:39:46Z")
Hopefully the Chiefs get knocked out this weekend so I don’t have to worry about any tiebreakers. ---
**Author:** ![dirtball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dirtball/32/18772_2.png) [@dirtball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dirtball)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/90 "2022-01-24T16:57:40Z")
I had the Buccaneers going to the Super Bowl, but I’m okay with the Rams beating them. I would be okay with them going all the way. I think it would be a pretty cool story for Stafford to win a Super Bowl after all those years with the Lions. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/91 "2022-01-24T17:14:49Z")
> [@dirtball](#): > > I would be okay with them going all the way. I think it would be a pretty cool story … The cool story is that the AFC is the designated home team this time around: if the Rams win (which is likely, since the Niners have beaten them twice, and it is extremely difficult to beat the same team three times in one season) they would be the visiting team _in their own stadium_. ---
**Author:** ![ekedolphin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ekedolphin/32/10003_2.png) [@ekedolphin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekedolphin)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/92 "2022-01-24T17:25:38Z")
I had to read this far down (post 49) to read a result that’s even still possible now, with four teams remaining. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2022, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/93 "2022-01-24T18:40:04Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > if the Rams win (which is likely, since the Niners have beaten them twice, and it is extremely difficult to beat the same team three times in one season) This is an oft-repeated, but not terribly accurate, statement. From [this](https://www.footballperspective.com/how-hard-is-it-to-beat-a-team-three-times-in-one-season/) link: > It is hard to beat a good team three times in a season, they say. Since the 1970 NFL Merger, there have been 21 instances where a team swept a team in the regular season and then had a third battle in the playoffs. The sweeping team has gone 14-7 in those games, which means it must not be _that_ hard to beat a playoff team three times in a season. So 2 out of 3 times when a 3-game sweep could happen, it did happen. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/94 "2022-01-31T00:12:58Z")
Edited, I jumped the gun. Looks like we have a few people with the Bengals left, and a few with the Rams. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/95 "2022-01-31T00:20:01Z")
If the Rams win, then **LoneRhino** is the only perfect guess and wins. If the 49ers win, then **LoneRhino** (Bengals lose), **Hampshire** (Bengals lose), and **iiandyiiii** (Bengals win) will fight it out based on score, each with one team. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/96 "2022-01-31T00:23:19Z")
Except, add **Askance** to the mix, for having picked the Niners. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/97 "2022-01-31T00:25:38Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > and it is extremely difficult to beat the same team three times in one season) I think this is a misunderstanding in the way people think about probabilities. Now, NFL football games are not independent trials, but for example, you could say “getting a coin flip right 5 times in a row is really hard” - which is true, if hard means improbable - it’s about 3% chance. But if you’ve called 4 correctly, then calling the next one is 50/50. The fifth win is not harder because you called the first four right and we all know that calling a coin 5 times in a row is hard/rare, because we’ve already called 4 correctly and we’re only assessing whether we can call the fifth, which is an independent event. In other words, the fact that winning 5 in a row from the start is improbable doesn’t somehow influence the 5th event after the first 4 were correctly predicted. It seems obvious when you say it, but people intuitively. get this wrong _all the time_. So you could say “it’s hard to win 3 games against one team in a season”, and that may be true if you’re making that prediction from the beginning, before any games are played. It may be just as true to say “it’s hard to win any particular set of 3 NFL games.” But once you have two wins under your belt, it’s not like the unlikeliness of winning any three particular games (from the start) influences the probability of outcome of the last game. Now - NFL games aren’t independent events like a coin flip is, but that actually makes it more likely that the team that won the previous two games will win the third, because the first time has demonstrated that it can beat the other team twice. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/98 "2022-01-31T00:30:49Z")
OK, so if the Rams win, then it’s **LoneRhino**. Picked both teams trumps everything. If the 49ers win, then only **Askance** (49ers win Superbowl) or **iiiandyiiii** (Bengals win Superbowl) can win. The other remaining players all have one team, but only these two left picked one of the remaining teams to win. Is my analysis correct? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/99 "2022-01-31T02:38:31Z")
Congrats to **LoneRhino** And once again, I don’t have to do any math for the finale. ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2022, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/19th-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/957529/100 "2022-01-31T02:49:00Z")
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