I’ve been following the thread for several days, hoping it would return to the OP and the 1st Circuit opinion. Instead, it has become a general debate over SSM. So, I’m going to drop out. Before I do, I’d like to mention a few points which have occurred to me while reading. David42 doubtless will demolish them (IHHO), but I won’t be returning to reply. Instead, I leave it to any lurkers to draw their own conclusions, confidant they’re able to connect the dots without my help. If any other posters wish to take up these points, please feel free. Or feel free to let them sink.
First, Griswold (mentioned earlier in the thread) pretty thoroughly undercuts the notion that the Supreme Court considers procreation to be the sine qua non of marriage. On the contrary, the holding of the case (by a 7-2 majority) was that one of the fundamental rights of marriage is the right not to procreate.
Second, the assertion that equal protection claims (or federal substantive due process claims based on equal protection) only lie for fundamental rights is mistaken. There’s no fundamental right to municipal bus service. But if a municipality discriminates against blacks by requiring them to ride in the back of the bus, that’s a violation of equal protection. See Browder (aff’d per curiam by the Supreme Court). Similarly, there’s no fundamental right to food stamps. But if the government irrationally disqualifies some individuals from eligility for food stamps, that’s a denial of equal protection. See Moreno (another 7-2 case).
Third, the assertion that a protected class must be 100% immutable has no basis in law of which I’m aware. Nor does the assertion that we have to be able to identify members of the class by objective evidence such as genetic testing. For purposes of SSM, we figure out who are members of the class when they apply for a marriage license. I’m by no means sanguine that the Supreme Court will give sexual orientation protected status. It has for some time been very hesitant to recognize new such classes. But, if it does, it will be because gays are a small and widely disliked (to say the least) minority who can’t count on the political process to protect their rights. That they have the right to vote doesn’t undermine such an analysis in the slightest.
Fourth, if the Supreme Court applies any level of scrutiny north of rational basis - whether strict, intermediate or rational-with-bite - the issue will be: How does SSM hurt anyone? “We don’t know, but it might” isn’t going to cut it. “We don’t know, but let’s study it for a really, really long time” isn[t going to cut it. And, of course, “We don’t know, but St. Paul was dead set against it” is right out.
Fifth, if the Supreme Court recognizes a constitutional right to SSM, that doubtless will be poorly received by many. So was Brown. But, we don’t decide constitutional cases by popular opinion. Indeed, the whole point in a case such as this is to protect an unpopular minority from the whims of the majority.