# $2.00 Gas Coming?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [August 30, 2006, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795 "2006-08-30T15:04:21Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@spingears](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spingears)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/1 "2006-08-30T15:04:21Z")
The “Today” show indicated that prices of gas would be down to $2.00 this fall.
Is this : 1. An attempted by the oil cartel to divert the US from a course toward self sufficiency with regard to oil? or
2. An attempt to influence the fall elections?
3. Both of the above?
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### Author:  [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/2 "2006-08-30T15:07:27Z")
1. A best prediction based on available information?
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### Author:  [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/3 "2006-08-30T15:09:51Z")
I read an article on [CNN.com](http://CNN.com) [story here](http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/30/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?cnn=yes).
> [@](#):
>
> Gilman said retail gasoline prices of around $2 a gallon by Thanksgiving were certainly possible, although not likely.
>
> He said crude prices would need to drop by about $20 a barrel to have that effect, and he just didn’t see any major catalyst that would cause such a decline over the next three months.
Of course if the price drops by $50 a barrell than gas prices will drop back to around $1 per gallon.
I’m not holding my breath. I’ll believe it when I see it.
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### Author:  [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/4 "2006-08-30T15:10:09Z")
1. Wildly optimistic wishful thinking?
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### Author:  [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/5 "2006-08-30T15:10:46Z")
1. An attempt to bolster the US automobile industry, which is lagging due to lowered sales of SUVs and pickup trucks, now that people realize they really don’t need to drive a minivan that get 20 mpg when they could drive a station wagon that gets 35.
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### Author:  [@Renob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Renob)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/6 "2006-08-30T18:24:18Z")
I love it how some people think that oil prices are set by some GOP cartel that is only interested in winning elections and killing the electric car. Sorry, folks, as much as you might not like to think it, oil prices are pretty much due to supply and demand (and, of course, a large dose of government intervention that drives up prices anywhere from fifty cents to a dollar a gallon, but that’s a topic for another post). Supply now looks more secure than it did in the past and prices are falling. Furthermore, demand is also falling due to the fact that the summer driving season is coming to an end. It’s not a conspiracy, people. Get a grip.
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### Author:  [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/7 "2006-08-30T18:26:56Z")
> [@Renob](#):
>
> It’s not a conspiracy, people. Get a grip.
That’s just what they _want_ you to think…
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### Author:  [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/8 "2006-08-30T18:32:47Z")
Gasoline will not get below $2.00 the day until we switch to the metric system.
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### Author:  [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/9 "2006-08-30T18:43:22Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#):
>
> Gasoline will not get below $2.00 the day until we switch to the metric system.
Likely true. When I was in Calgary earlier this month the price about $1.10 per litre.
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/10 "2006-08-30T19:02:10Z")
Those poor oil companies are going to lose a fortune! We should bail them out.
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### Author:  [@spazattak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spazattak)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/11 "2006-08-30T19:02:21Z")
> [@Renob](#):
>
> I love it how some people think that oil prices are set by some GOP cartel that is only interested in winning elections and killing the electric car. Sorry, folks, as much as you might not like to think it, oil prices are pretty much due to supply and demand (and, of course, a large dose of government intervention that drives up prices anywhere from fifty cents to a dollar a gallon, but that’s a topic for another post). Supply now looks more secure than it did in the past and prices are falling. Furthermore, demand is also falling due to the fact that the summer driving season is coming to an end. It’s not a conspiracy, people. Get a grip.
Anecdotally - My experiences in traffic are different now that school has started up. Traffic now is much heavier than it was over the summer. It would lead me to think that more is being used now. Is this flawed? Do the busses, teenagers, parents dropping kids off to school every week day not make up for the additional air plane flights and occasional summer road trip?
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### Author:  [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/12 "2006-08-30T19:12:52Z")
> [@Renob](#):
>
> I love it how some people think that oil prices are set by some GOP cartel that is only interested in winning elections and killing the electric car.
The GOP told Katie Couric that if she could get the Today show to report upcoming lower gasprices, they would “make CBS an offer they couldn’t refuse” and that whole nightly news anchor thing she was wanted would happen.
Gotta admit it explains a lot 🙂
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### Author:  [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/13 "2006-08-30T19:19:38Z")
> [@Renob](#):
>
> Sorry, folks, as much as you might not like to think it, oil prices are pretty much due to supply and demand (and, of course, a large dose of government intervention that drives up prices anywhere from fifty cents to a dollar a gallon, but that’s a topic for another post).
[sarcasm]Yes, it’s completely implausible. In all of human history, no group has never colluded to manipulate prices for it’s own benefit. Also, OPEC is a myth. You hallucinated those gas lines way back when.[/sarcasm]
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### Author:  [@spazattak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spazattak)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/14 "2006-08-30T19:22:00Z")
> [@spazattak](#):
>
> Anecdotally - My experiences in traffic are different now that school has started up. Traffic now is much heavier than it was over the summer. It would lead me to think that more is being used now. Is this flawed? Do the busses, teenagers, parents dropping kids off to school every week day not make up for the additional air plane flights and occasional summer road trip?
I just [answered](http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/c100000001M.htm) my own question. It is up over summer.
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### Author:  [@Renob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Renob)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/15 "2006-08-30T19:25:14Z")
> [@Der Trihs](#):
>
> [sarcasm]Yes, it’s completely implausible. In all of human history, no group has never colluded to manipulate prices for it’s own benefit. Also, OPEC is a myth. You hallucinated those gas lines way back when.[/sarcasm]
Actually, besides diamonds, there is little evidence that any group has successfully colluded to keep prices high for their own benefit. Even when OPEC tried it, it fell apart after a few months due to its members cheating. Gas lines were much more the fault of price controls imposed by the government.
And even if this did happen in the past, there is no evidence this is happening today. People who prefer to turn to conspiracy theories to explain everything instead of looking at the actual facts may not want to believe it, but there is no secret cabal manipulating oil prices to favor the GOP. It’s a ridiculous assertion.
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### Author:  [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)
#### Post date: [August 30, 2006, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/16 "2006-08-30T22:31:45Z")
> [@spingears](#):
>
> 1. An attempted by the oil cartel to divert the US from a course toward self sufficiency with regard to oil?
Please sketch out for us, briefly, precisely how, in your view, “the oil cartel” manipulates the current pump price of gasoline in the US. After I evaluate your explanation, I’ll discuss whether I think any of your reasons hold water or not.
In the meantime, how about:
1. For much of this year, oil commodity prices have been irrationally bid to artificially high levels by brokers fearing later supply shortages that have not happened; as this panic has eased, prices are coming down.
Doesn’t have that _frisson_ of conspiracy so many like to see, I know, but there it is.
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### Author:  [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)
#### Post date: [August 31, 2006, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/17 "2006-08-31T13:23:19Z")
> [@Renob](#):
>
> I love it how some people think that oil prices are set by some GOP cartel that is only interested in winning elections and killing the electric car. Sorry, folks, as much as you might not like to think it, oil prices are pretty much due to supply and demand (and, of course, a large dose of government intervention that drives up prices anywhere from fifty cents to a dollar a gallon, but that’s a topic for another post). Supply now looks more secure than it did in the past and prices are falling. Furthermore, demand is also falling due to the fact that the summer driving season is coming to an end. It’s not a conspiracy, people. Get a grip.
Supply and demand. Supply is pretty set. Demand slightly and steadily growing worldwide. These are practically constants. The prices move drastically. They are not on a one to one ratio.It is however an industry dominated by a few companies. Maximizing profits is done by controlling competition ,not fostering it. They can and I believe do control the prices.
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### Author:  [@ColonelDax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ColonelDax)
#### Post date: [August 31, 2006, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/18 "2006-08-31T13:28:14Z")
Chrysler [expects](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/29/business/29auto.html?_r=1&oref=slogin) gasoline to stay above $3 a gallon for the rest of the decade.
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### Author:  [@Renob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Renob)
#### Post date: [August 31, 2006, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/19 "2006-08-31T14:12:40Z")
> [@gonzomax](#):
>
> Supply and demand. Supply is pretty set.
No, actually, it’s not. Supply gets disrupted pretty easily. Wars in the Middle East, natural disasters in the Gulf of Mexico, etc. Plus, add on to the fact that the energy bill passed by Congress mandated a greater usage of ethanol in most of the nation’s fuel, so our supply is now dependent on ethanol, too, which has a lot of problems.
> [@](#):
>
> Demand slightly and steadily growing worldwide. These are practically constants. The prices move drastically. They are not on a one to one ratio.It is however an industry dominated by a few companies. Maximizing profits is done by controlling competition ,not fostering it. They can and I believe do control the prices.
You can believe what you want, but there is no evidence to back up your belief. Even at their highest level of profits, oil companies made around 10 cents’ profit on a gallon of gas. That’s not very high, especially when you compare it to the 18 cents the feds take in taxes and the up to 30 cents states take.
If you want to believe these companies control prices and raise and lower them based on their private whims, then produce some evidence. Everyone who has looked at this (including the Federal Trade Commission under both Clinton and Bush) has found these charges to be completely untrue.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [August 31, 2006, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/20 "2006-08-31T14:52:04Z")
> [@Renob](#):
>
> I love it how some people think that oil prices are set by some GOP cartel that is only interested in winning elections and killing the electric car. Sorry, folks, as much as you might not like to think it, oil prices are pretty much due to supply and demand (and, of course, a large dose of government intervention that drives up prices anywhere from fifty cents to a dollar a gallon, but that’s a topic for another post).
From [_Armed Madhouse,_](http://www.amazon.com/Armed-Madhouse-Afraid-Behind-Dispatches/dp/0525949682/sr=8-1/qid=1157035403/ref=pd_bbs_1/102-8723282-5269764?ie=UTF8) by Greg Palast, Chapter 2: The Flow:
> [@](#):
>
> The Saudis just want to be helpful. In December 2002, for example, [Saudi-born petroleum expert and think-tanker Nawaf] Obaid wrote publicly to assure the Bush Administration that, while Saudi Arabia could not officially support a U.S. invasion of another country (Iraq), the Saudis would pump enough oil to hold down prices once U.S. tanks rolled.
>
> But that was just cheese for the trap. Admittedly, in early 2003, just before the invasion, the Saudis, for the first time in memory, pumped flat out, providing nearly 12 million barrels a day. But once American forces were irreversibly committed and the Iraq’s pipelines in flames, the price of oil rose and the Saudis kidked it higher by withholding more than a million barrels a day from the market. The one-year 121% post-invasion jump in the price of crude, from under $30 a barrel to over $60, sucked that $120 billion windfall to the Saudis from SUV drivers and factory owners in the West. The OECD, which measures these things, estimates the U.S. economy lost 1.2% of GDP, costing the USA just over one million jobs. The harm to Africa and Asia was many times higher.
>
> You’d think our President, as consumer-in-chief of the infidel world, would say something to Crown Prince (now King) Abdullah about the worldwide economic devastation caused by high oil prices when the Saudi monarch visited Mr. Bush at the Crawford ranch in April 2005. The newspapers show they held hands, they scooted aroundin our President’s golf cart (Mr. Bush seems to have an aversion to horses) and the Prince left with a smile – then kicked up the price of crude another two dollars.
>
> Maybe Mr. Bush has his own reasons to be grateful to the prince. I wasn’t in the golf cart but I know this: The only other time in the past decade the Saudis have produced flat out to bring down the price of oil was just before the 2004 presidential election.
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