# $2.00 Gas Coming?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [August 30, 2006, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795 "2006-08-30T15:04:21Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 11
### Author:  [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/201 "2006-10-04T10:27:02Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#):
>
> I’ll take a stab and bet gas prices will begin to increase within 30 days after the election, no matter who ends up with control of the house or senate. I wonder if Las Vegas is taking any action on this 😃
It’s called the futures market.
---
### Author:  [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/202 "2006-10-04T12:32:52Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#):
>
> So, factual arguments you happen to disagree with are ‘handwaving’, eh? I don’t have any personal stake in this, except that I feel a bit bad about people making economic judgements based on unsupported superstitions. You want to believe that gasoline prices are being manipulated for the election, feel free to do so. I suppose the adminsitration is depressing the housing market for the same reason, right?
Personally, I have absolutely no idea why gas prices have dropped so dramatically, a little faster than predicted I might add. I have no knowledge of the oil industry or how it functions. Many have made convincing points in this thread, backed up by trends and proven economic factors, like you El Kabong and Renob. Your facts are hard to argue with, though, say what you will, in my opinion, Gonzomax has done more than a passable job arguing his side.
From my perspective taking everything into consideration it does seem to me that something other than, or in addition to, economics is going on here. Is it the election? Is it manipulation for reasons totally unrelated to the election? I don’t know, but from my vantage point in the bleachers a natural, market-driven phenomenon it’s not. We’re now at a 35% drop in prices at the pump in my area from the end of June. Has there been such a precipitous drop in recent times?
Also, as far as I see it, those who’ve stated a position contrary to yours seem to be less “superstitous” about the drop in prices than suspicious as to its cause and timing.
I don’t want to rehash your arguments in this thread again because, as I said, your information is difficult to dispute, but it is curious, to me at least, that prices have dropped as steeply as predicted so quickly. The thread title is “$2.00 Gas Coming?” and now, at least in my area, it’s less than $2.00.
---
### Author:  [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/203 "2006-10-04T14:05:07Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#):
>
> I’ll take a stab and bet gas prices will begin to increase within 30 days after the election, no matter who ends up with control of the house or senate. I wonder if Las Vegas is taking any action on this 😃
If there is a bitterly cold winter and demand rises in the Northeast, then I could see crude climbing back up. Also, political events could easily shoot the price of oil up.
Yes, you can play [crude oil futures](http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html) . Please note that commodities futures is extremely risky.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/204 "2006-10-04T15:18:49Z")
> [@gonzomax](#):
>
> Went to 3.35 .did you miss that period.
Yes, because we’re talking about _2004_, when the price of gas nowhere near approached $3.35.
And as far as Woodward is concerned, about his 2004 claim: the price of a barrel of oil went from $36 to $53 right before the 2004 election ([cite](http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/OILPRICE.txt)), so I still have any idea of what you’re talking about. If the Saudi’s were in cahoots to lower the price of oil, why did it increase $17/barrel after Bush supposedly asked them to keep the price down?
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/205 "2006-10-04T15:24:42Z")
Has there been such a precipitous drop in recent times?
Yes.
In November 1985 the price of a barrel of oil was $30.81. Three months later it plummeted by 50% to $15.42. [http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/OILPRICE.txt](http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/OILPRICE.txt)
In 1997, oil lost almost 25% of its value in four months as the price decreased from $22/barrel to $16/barrel
You can find others, but those were the two that lept out at me.
Anyway, for true industry price manipulation, check out the prices prior to 1973. Now _that’s_ what true monopoly pricing looks like! 😉
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/206 "2006-10-04T15:27:16Z")
> [@rjung](#):
>
> So you agree that the Bush Administration has no qualms about gettings its friends to manipulate pump prices for political gain, _n’est pas?_
Read my above post. If he does get his friends to manipulate oil prices, they sure have a funny way to go about it… a $17 spike in the months immediately following the “request”, the same period prior to the election that Woodward claims the Saudi’s helped _lower_ the price of oil?
Since the facts don’t match the accusation, the accusation doesn’t stand.
---
### Author:  [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/207 "2006-10-04T20:35:44Z")
> [@spingears](#):
>
> The “Today” show indicated that prices of gas would be down to $2.00 this fall.
> Is this : 1. An attempted by the oil cartel to divert the US from a course toward self sufficiency with regard to oil? or
> 2. An attempt to influence the fall elections?
> 3. Both of the above?
I would never have believed it. I saw $1.99 gas today and I thought maybe that whacko springears wasn’t delusional.
Lower gas prices are also driving the stock market to new highs.
In Korea, they used to discover a new ring of North Korean spies in the months immediately preceding almost every election.
---
### Author:  [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/208 "2006-10-04T20:42:50Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#):
>
> I don’t have any personal stake in this, except that I feel a bit bad about people making economic judgements based on unsupported superstitions.
You must have skimmed that part earlier about Preisdent Bush personally thanking Saudi Prince Bandar for flooding the world oil market and **keeping prices down in the run-up to the 2004 general election.**
And it’s not as if [this idea](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/30/business/30gasoline.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin) is held by a few random kooks:
> [@](#):
>
> The sudden decline [in gas prices] has also ignited suspicions that the Republican administration and giant oil companies conspired to cut gasoline prices for electoral gains.
>
> “I think prices are going down now because it’s election time but I feel they will go back up again right after,” said Roberta Mays, a school bus driver in Knox, Pa.
>
> Her opinion was reflected in a Sept. 15-17 Gallup poll, which found that **42 percent of respondents** said that they believed the Bush administration was manipulating the price of gasoline in advance of the fall elections.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/209 "2006-10-04T21:06:17Z")
You know, I never figured out what poll numbers are supposed to bring to a debate. 80% of Americans believe that the gov’t is hiding info on UFO’s, 36% believe in 9/11 conspiracy theories, 70-90% believe in God… whatever.
So what?
And, **rjung** , how can you correlate this statement:
> [@](#):
>
> You must have skimmed that part earlier about Preisdent Bush personally thanking Saudi Prince Bandar for flooding the world oil market and **keeping prices down in the run-up to the 2004 general election.** (bolding yours)
with the data provided in post #204? The price of crude oil rose by $17, _a 47% increase_ between the time W made his request and the 2004 election. Woodward _says_ that Bush thanked a Saudi for keeping prices down, however, the price for Saudi oil increased 47%.
I have a statement by a reporter in one hand, the price data in the other. Who do you really think I’m going to believe?
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2006, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/210 "2006-10-04T21:14:38Z")
Looking at the article posted at the beginning of this thread (which started in August, btw), an oil analyst commented that for gas to get to $2/gallon that the price of crude would have to drop by $20 (the highest price in August for WTI crude was $76.31). Today the price of crude closed at $59.55, a $16.76 drop.
See? When you know what you’re talking about, you can make accurate predictions w/o having to resort to conspiracy theories.
---
### Author:  [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)
#### Post date: [October 5, 2006, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/211 "2006-10-05T00:00:36Z")
Not theories.
---
### Author:  [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)
#### Post date: [October 5, 2006, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/212 "2006-10-05T03:04:30Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> Looking at the article posted at the beginning of this thread (which started in August, btw), an oil analyst commented that for gas to get to $2/gallon that the price of crude would have to drop by $20 (the highest price in August for WTI crude was $76.31). Today the price of crude closed at $59.55, a $16.76 drop.
>
> See? When you know what you’re talking about, you can make accurate predictions w/o having to resort to conspiracy theories.
Come on, John. Let’s be candid here. Gilman wasn’t making a prediction. In fact he was doubting it would happen.
> [@](#):
>
> Gilman said retail gasoline prices of around $2 a gallon by Thanksgiving were certainly possible, **although not likely**. He said crude prices would need to drop by about $20 a barrel to have that effect, **and he just didn’t see any major catalyst that would cause such a decline over the next three months**.
Well, it has happened. So much for the oil man knowing da foocha, huh? The ability to use a calculator doesn’t make one a prognosticator, not that he presented himself as one.
---
### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [October 5, 2006, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/213 "2006-10-05T03:16:23Z")
Let me highlight a different portion of the same quote:
> [@](#):
>
> Gilman said retail gasoline prices of around $2 a gallon by Thanksgiving were certainly possible, although not likely. He said crude prices would need to drop by about $20 a barrel to have that effect, and **he just didn’t see any major catalyst** that would cause such a decline over the next three months.
His calculations about the effect of the price drop would have on the price of gas are born by the historical data of what’s happened in the months since he made that prediction.
However, he just didn’t think the forces needed to drop the price $20/barrel would happen.
But they did.
Therefore, his problem was a mis-estimation of the _catalyst_, not of the effect a $20 drop in the price of crude would have on American gas prices.
As far as the catalyst, there have been plenty of reasons why oil has gone down and these reasons were seen by far-seeing analysts months ago - increasing oil stocks, more oil coming online, the Alaska thing not being as bad as feared, a lessening of the risk premium, etc. It’s been gone over repeatedly in this thread.
---
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [October 6, 2006, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/214 "2006-10-06T17:28:17Z")
Actually, [I don’t think we can expect gas prices to fall any further between now and November.](http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/oil-fall-may-force-opec-to-tighten-up/2006/10/06/1159641527389.html) Quite the reverse.
---
### Author:  [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)
#### Post date: [October 9, 2006, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/215 "2006-10-09T22:47:47Z")
Still dropping here.
---
### Author:  [@Renob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Renob)
#### Post date: [October 9, 2006, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/216 "2006-10-09T23:26:42Z")
And still no proof of any conspiracy by Big Oil to lower prices in order to help the GOP.
---
### Author:  [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)
#### Post date: [October 10, 2006, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/217 "2006-10-10T21:17:13Z")
Not to those with eyes shut and fingers in ears. If it happened a hundred times ,you would call it a coincidence.
---
### Author:  [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)
#### Post date: [October 15, 2006, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/218 "2006-10-15T12:47:26Z")
Timestamp - October 15 - $1.93.9 locally.
---
### Author:  [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)
#### Post date: [October 15, 2006, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/219 "2006-10-15T14:40:49Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia]
Timestamp - October 15 - $1.93.9 locally.
[/QUOTE]
Prediction - Dec 25th - $2.35 - $2.40.
-Joe
---
### Author:  [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2006, 9:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795/220 "2006-10-18T09:53:34Z")
Timestamp - Wednesday, October 18 - $1.91.9 locally
[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795.md?page=10)
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2-00-gas-coming/370795.md?page=12)