# 20,000 yrs from now.. optimism or pessimism... **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [July 6, 2008, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433 "2008-07-06T05:04:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Full\_Metal\_Lotus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/df705f/32.png) [@Full\_Metal\_Lotus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Full_Metal_Lotus)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/1 "2008-07-06T05:04:00Z")
So… 20,000 yrs from now… Long beyond any Republican/Liberal arguments, Long beyond any theorhetical modelling… Will their still be humans? Will we have cities? Will We have out grown Earth, and founded civilizations on other planets… around other stars? Could a person from 20,000 yrs from now have anything in common to discuss/understand with our time? Or will we be gone? Will the Earth be a radio active sterile dessert? (20,000 yrs is not a signifigant time for evolution of anything intellegent/technological)… will civilisation and resources collapse, forcing us into an eternal dark ages? Pull out your crystal balls and give me your guesses! FML ---
**Author:** ![Asimovian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asimovian/32/172_2.png) [@Asimovian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asimovian)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/2 "2008-07-06T05:06:04Z")
In the year 2361 A.D., [straightdope.com](http://straightdope.com) became self-aware… ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/3 "2008-07-06T05:31:29Z")
dup post ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/4 "2008-07-06T05:31:41Z")
No colonization of extra-solar planets - still too far away. Will have some colonies in solar system space, but not too many. Humans will be neurally into connected wireless nets where your thoughts can let you access information or talk with their net participants Human population with be less than 1 billion people Humans will be able to live for hundreds of years due to scientific advances in stopping the aging process. External gestation of a child in an artificial womb will be an option many women will chose. Technologies will be able to produce huge amounts of energy at very low cost. People still waiting for flying cars. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/5 "2008-07-06T07:22:17Z")
\> So… 20,000 yrs from now… Long beyond any Republican/Liberal arguments Ummm… 😃 \> Will their still be humans? Yes. \> Will we have cities? Yes \> Will We have out grown Earth, and founded civilizations on other planets… around other stars? I rather suspect colony ships will be on the way there. \> Could a person from 20,000 yrs from now have anything in common to discuss/understand with our time? Sure: birth, life, death… \> Or will we be gone? \> Will the Earth be a radio active sterile dessert? (20,000 yrs is not a signifigant time for evolution of anything intellegent/technological)… No: all the nukes in the world couldn’t do that. \> will civilisation and resources collapse, forcing us into an eternal dark ages? I will not be surprised if civilisation does not collapse at least once in the next 20,000 years. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/6 "2008-07-06T07:36:24Z")
[QUOTE=Full Metal Lotus] Will their still be humans? [/quote] Hopefully not. For us to have not either improved ourselves beyond the human by then or have been replaced by our creations implies extreme stagnation ( probably under a worldwide tyranny ), or the collapse of civilization to such an extent that it never recovers. [QUOTE=Full Metal Lotus] Will we have cities? [/quote] Possibly, depending on how you define “city” ( would a space habitat count ? A computing node full of virtualized people ? ). For any number of purposes it makes sense to concentrate resources and habitations. If not, it’s probably either because humanity has fallen too far or because the whole planet’s been built over so there’s just one “city”. Or something more exotic, like there being nothing but one vast Mind, in which case there’s no city because there’s only one individual on the planet. [QUOTE=Full Metal Lotus] Will We have out grown Earth, and founded civilizations on other planets.. around other stars? [/quote] I expect the future will be one of space colonies spreading throughout the universe, quite possibly ones that don’t really care if they are near stars or not. Rather than reaching other stars by travelling at relativistic speeds, they’ll simply spread slowly, from asteroid to comet outward into interstellar space. Essentially, over the millennia I expect that space itself will be colonized rather than planets, by vast numbers of colonies spreading throughout the universe from “oasis” to “oasis”. [QUOTE=Full Metal Lotus] Could a person from 20,000 yrs from now have anything in common to discuss/understand with our time? [/quote] Quite possibly; although we might find ourselves talking to some tiny subsystem while the main mind takes little or no notice of us. [QUOTE=Full Metal Lotus] Will the Earth be a radio active sterile dessert? (20,000 yrs is not a signifigant time for evolution of anything intellegent/technological).. [/quote] Or otherwise wrecked; quite possibly. It’s one of the reasons I consider colonizing space such a good idea. It’s a lot harder to destroy millions or billions of habitats spread across light years than it is to kill one planet. ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/7 "2008-07-06T14:51:08Z")
If we haven’t established viable communities off world by then then the Human race will be long gone due either to a comet or asteroid strike. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/8 "2008-07-07T05:20:14Z")
[QUOTE=Lust4Life] If we haven’t established viable communities off world by then then the Human race will be long gone due either to a comet or asteroid strike. [/QUOTE] Nah, the hominids are much older than that currently, and we haven’t been wiped off the earth yet. Planet-killer asteroids aren’t as rare as we’d like, perhaps, but they’re not _that_ common. 20K years isn’t really all that long; and there’s probably only a couple hundred year window from now where we wouldn’t be able to “resolve” a strike beforehand, assuming even lethargic technological progress. ---
**Author:** ![Number](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/number/32/242_2.png) [@Number](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Number)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/9 "2008-07-07T06:29:37Z")
[QUOTE=Full Metal Lotus] Will their [sic] still be humans? [/quote] There will be a few scattered here and there, hunting and gathering. > [@](#): > > Will We have out grown Earth, and founded civilizations on other planets.. around other stars? No. The distances and energy costs involved are just too vast. > [@](#): > > Will the Earth be a radio active sterile dessert? Like Baked Alaska made in the microwave. > [@](#): > > will civilisation and resources collapse, forcing us into an eternal dark ages? Essentially, yes. We’ve used up all the easy resources, so once this civilization falls (however that comes about), no others will be able to rise to the same level. This is about as good as it gets. ---
**Author:** ![Walker\_in\_Eternity](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/46a35a/32.png) [@Walker\_in\_Eternity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walker_in_Eternity)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/10 "2008-07-07T10:43:19Z")
The optimist in me would like to agree with **Der Trihs** but unfortunately my cynical and non optimistic side is winning today and I have to go with - we will either be long extinct with little or no record that we ever existed or as described in **Number’s** post. [This book](http://www.fantasticfiction.co.uk/b/stephen-m-baxter/deep-future.htm) by Stephen Baxter, gives a very optimistic appraisal of what we could achieve. Unfortunately I suspect that human nature dictates that self annihilation is the way we will go. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/11 "2008-07-07T12:47:56Z")
The last remaining humans will be in zoos visited by robots, aliens and ninjas. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/12 "2008-07-07T15:13:28Z")
I’d also like to agree with **Der Thris** but fear **number** is closer to the mark. I don’t think the earth will be a radioactive desert–though it could be, due to nuclear war or asteroid strike–but I think we’re living in a golden age due to easy energy. We’re already seeing it start to end. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/13 "2008-07-07T15:49:02Z")
-will wear medieval-style clothing (hoods and cloaks) -we will have morachical governments (emperors and kings) -we will live with weird-looking quasi-humans (like Yoda) -we will have vast numbers of domsestic animals -the armed forces will consist of cloned humans , white plastic armor, which is no good against 1920’s-style deathrays -extremely good-looking and extremely ugly humans will be the norm (plastic surgery will have been forgotten) I KNOW this because i’ve seen STAR WARS! ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/14 "2008-07-07T18:01:45Z")
Personally, I think an agricultural society without a lot of current-style ‘high’ tech, existing in a somewhat-impoverished and warmer world is likely. We will be the subjects of legends. [QUOTE=An Gadaí] The last remaining humans will be in zoos visited by robots, aliens and ninjas. [/QUOTE] And _pirates!_ Don’t forget the pirates! [QUOTE=ralph124c] -will wear medieval-style clothing (hoods and cloaks) -we will have morachical governments (emperors and kings) -we will live with weird-looking quasi-humans (like Yoda) -we will have vast numbers of domsestic animals -the armed forces will consist of cloned humans , white plastic armor, which is no good against 1920’s-style deathrays -extremely good-looking and extremely ugly humans will be the norm (plastic surgery will have been forgotten) I KNOW this because i’ve seen STAR WARS! [/QUOTE] Um… that was “Long long ago, in a galaxy far far away”… ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/15 "2008-07-07T21:23:09Z")
Replying to the OP… I suspect we will be around in 2 million years, let alone 20,000. I can’t tell you much about what our lives will be like. We may hit a stable configuration. Remember, the last 10,000 have been an anomaly, characterized by rapid change at an increasingly accelerating pace. The long span _before_ 10,000 years ago were not so characterized. We may plateau out technologically. We find a social system that works really well for us. 2 million years is not an unusual stretch for a solidly established species to hang around. ---
**Author:** ![Shamozzle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shamozzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shamozzle)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/16 "2008-07-07T22:02:52Z")
Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but nobody has the slightest clue and speculation is pointless. 20,000 years? Forget it. ---
**Author:** ![Walker\_in\_Eternity](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/46a35a/32.png) [@Walker\_in\_Eternity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walker_in_Eternity)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 8:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/17 "2008-07-08T08:18:58Z")
[QUOTE=Shamozzle] Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but nobody has the slightest clue and speculation is pointless. 20,000 years? Forget it. [/QUOTE] True, but it is interesting to speculate. My current feeling is that given the world situation as it is we are probably likely to undergo extinction or massive species reduction in my lifetime. Followed by a general drop in living standards and technology. ---
**Author:** ![Colophon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f05b48/32.png) [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/20-000-yrs-from-now-optimism-or-pessimism/455433/18 "2008-07-08T10:36:42Z")
IMHO there’s not a chance in hell we won’t have wiped ourselves out long before 20,000 years are up. In fact 2,000 years is mighty optimistic, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it’s 200 years. We’ve just got too many efficient ways of fucking things up nowadays. There have been stupid and violent humans for as long as there have been humans, but for most of human history their ability to destory has been too limited by technology for them to have much impact. Extrapolate current weapons technology by a few decades, add an increasing population, cook gently in an increasingly warm climate, and spice things up with politicians and religious leaders fomenting hatred, and you have the perfect recipe for a new Stone Age, if not a complete extinction.