# 2004 Election Mythbusters **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 13, 2004, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507 "2004-11-13T02:14:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Rillian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bcef8e/32.png) [@Rillian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rillian)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/1 "2004-11-13T02:14:43Z")
So what election myths/legends were busted in the 2004 election? [ol] [li]Redskins losing last home game before the election means the incumbent loses[/li][li]Early voting skews Republican[/li][li]Large turnout favors Democrats[/li][li]Incumbents polling less than 50% will lose[/li][li]If the Dow Jones Industrial Average is lower on Election Day than on Labor Day, the incumbent loses[/li][li]The Nick News for Kids presidential poll accurately predicts the winner[/li][/ol] ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/2 "2004-11-13T02:23:13Z")
Taller candidate wins Candidate with double letter in his name wins ---
**Author:** ![Rillian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bcef8e/32.png) [@Rillian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rillian)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/3 "2004-11-13T02:32:42Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > Taller candidate wins Wasn’t Gore taller than Bush? If so, that myth was busted in 2000. ---
**Author:** ![Bleaker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Bleaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bleaker)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/4 "2004-11-13T02:36:07Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > Candidate with double letter in his name wins Ross Perot? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/5 "2004-11-13T02:57:58Z")
Candidate with more royal blood wins. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/6 "2004-11-13T04:29:53Z")
> [@Rillian](#): > > Wasn’t Gore taller than Bush? If so, that myth was busted in 2000. Depends whether you’re talking about who wins the vote or who gets to the White House. ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/7 "2004-11-13T04:46:35Z")
> [@Rillian](#): > > So what election myths/legends were busted in the 2004 election? > > [ol] > [li]The Nick News for Kids presidential poll accurately predicts the winner[/li][/ol] Dude, I remember back when that thing predicted Dukakis. ---
**Author:** ![Rillian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bcef8e/32.png) [@Rillian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rillian)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/8 "2004-11-13T15:20:05Z")
> [@friedo](#): > > Dude, I remember back when that thing predicted Dukakis. This particular poll has only been conducted for the last four elections, 1992-1996. You may be thinking of the _Weekly Reader_ children’s poll. From [Yahoo News:](http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041020/nyw153_1.html) > [@](#): > > Nick’s Kids Pick the President campaign, which was conceived to educate and empower kids across the country, is an award-winning initiative that has been conducted for the past four presidential races. ---
**Author:** ![Garfield226](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9e8a1a/32.png) [@Garfield226](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Garfield226)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/9 "2004-11-13T15:42:34Z")
> [@Rillian](#): > > This particular poll has only been conducted for the last four elections, 1992-1996. You may be thinking of the _Weekly Reader_ children’s poll. Which, coincidentally, [predicted a win for President Bush](http://www.weeklyreader.com/election_vote.asp), making it 12-13 since 1956. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/10 "2004-11-13T17:13:49Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > Depends whether you’re talking about who wins the vote or who gets to the White House. Same difference. ---
**Author:** ![vinniepaz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b4bc9f/32.png) [@vinniepaz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vinniepaz)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/11 "2004-11-13T17:22:51Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > Depends whether you’re talking about who wins the vote or who gets to the White House. Wow I am SO sick of people making these little remarks. It was four years ago. Give it a rest. ---
**Author:** ![dqa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dqa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dqa)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/12 "2004-11-13T18:07:09Z")
Stark County, Ohio voted “correctly” in [every election of the 20th century except 1976](http://www.ohio.edu/outlook/04-05/62f-045.cfm). This year they voted for Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![Ringo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/779978/32.png) [@Ringo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ringo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/13 "2004-11-13T18:23:12Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > Depends whether you’re talking about who wins the vote or who gets to the White House. Getting to the White House is what counts. ---
**Author:** ![dqa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dqa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dqa)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/14 "2004-11-13T18:26:06Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > Depends whether you’re talking about who wins the vote or who gets to the White House. > > > [@vinniepaz](#): > > > > Wow I am SO sick of people making these little remarks. It was four years ago. Give it a rest. Actually, that’s a legitimate point. If these things have any validity, you could argue that they should be better predictors of the popular vote, rather than the electoral map. Of course, using that argument will throw out most of the predictors we are discussing today, which predicted Bush in 2000. Anyway, another [predictor](http://binarycircumstance.typepad.com/bc_blog/2004/11/election_predic.html): > [@](#): > > In the history of modern polling dating to 1952, no incumbent president has run even 1 percentage point better on Election Day than he did in the final Gallup Poll before the vote. > > Bush had 49% in the last Gallop Poll before the election. He got 51% of the vote. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/15 "2004-11-13T18:48:04Z")
Does anybody have a list of the various sports games that are supposed to predict the election? I know that they all have lousy track records, but it would be fun to see how they all fared this time around. ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2004, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/16 "2004-11-14T06:18:59Z")
> [@Rillian](#): > > This particular poll has only been conducted for the last four elections, 1992-1996. You may be thinking of the _Weekly Reader_ children’s poll. > > From [Yahoo News:](http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041020/nyw153_1.html) It may not have been Nick News, but it was definitely _something_ on Nickelodeon. I was seven years old, and I distinctly remember the winner, Dukakis, being delivered with a pizza. His name was spelled out in pepperoni. I swear. ---
**Author:** ![KGS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/90ced4/32.png) [@KGS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KGS)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2004, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/17 "2004-11-14T07:28:58Z")
Clearly, this is all the fault of the Red Sox winning the World Series this year. Breaking that 86-year-old curse must have created a resonance in the sub-psychic etherial causative matrix, disturbing these presidentially predictive points which until this year were as reliable as the sunrise. And is it any coincidence that John Kerry’s from Massachusetts?? Q.E.D. DAMN YOU BOSTON!!! And your Big Dig sucks, too!! 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2004, 7:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/18 "2004-11-14T07:59:07Z")
[QUOTE=Rillian] [li]Redskins losing last home game before the election means the incumbent loses[/li][/quote] I wouldn’t say that’s a ‘busted myth.’ It was true, it’s just that it was a meaningless coincidence. [quote] [li]Large turnout favors Democrats[/li][/quote] I don’t know if one election can be said to have ‘busted’ this. ---
**Author:** ![dre2xl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/34f0e0/32.png) [@dre2xl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dre2xl)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2004, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/19 "2004-11-14T15:49:32Z")
Wasn’t there some farmer who had a cow that dropped a meadow muffin on a picture of the campaigners and the cow got it right every time since 1984? ---
**Author:** ![dre2xl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/34f0e0/32.png) [@dre2xl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dre2xl)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2004, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507/20 "2004-11-14T15:56:00Z")
In a serious vein, I’d add these myths: - Huge youth turnout - Polls, especially Gallup, being hugely biased to the right this year because of weighting Republicans too heavily… IIRC, nearly all the final polls favored Kerry by about a point compared to the actual results - Bad economy and high gas prices elects the opponent - The challenger party gains seats during the incumbent’s term, although this probably was already debunked in 2002 - Zogby’s accuracy [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2004-election-mythbusters/274507.md?page=2)