# 2007 SDMB Oscar Prediction Contest (with prizes!) **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [February 20, 2007, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013 "2007-02-20T20:21:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2007, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/1 "2007-02-20T20:21:44Z")
Since I had no luck getting the thread title changed [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8202937&postcount=7), allow me to update/reiterate: Welcome to the Annual SDMB Oscar Prediction Contest! We have our own designated group at Oscar.com. It’s called Cecil’s Kids and the password is “opal”. There, we can easily track who’s guessing what, and it will tabulate the scores throughout the ceremony and determine a final winner. I always have a soundtrack prize, and this year is no exception. Although I haven’t picked a specific album, it will be one by the great Ennio Morricone, who is (at long last) richly earning an Honorary Academy Award this year. As before, the only real “catch” is that you have to sign up to [ABC.com](http://ABC.com) to be eligible for the prize. If you want to abstain, that’s fine–just post your predictions here and we’ll tabulate those separately for bragging rights. If you want to win the CD, you must log into the [Oscar.com](http://Oscar.com) site (it’s free, of course, and I never ever get any spam from them throughout the year). We’ve always had a healthy turnout and here’s hoping this is no exception; certainly, some of the categories are up-in-the-air enough that it should prove pretty interesting. We already have a couple people signed up, but as always, the More the Merrier! ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2007, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/2 "2007-02-20T20:45:40Z")
Yay! I look forward to this every year! ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2007, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/3 "2007-02-22T11:45:33Z")
Cool beans! If no one else enters, I’m a shoo-in! ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2007, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/4 "2007-02-22T13:25:24Z")
I joined too! I’m excited. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2007, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/5 "2007-02-22T17:48:39Z")
In all fairness, I should’ve provided a link that took everyone to the prediction page more easily. [Here](http://predict.oscar.go.com/predict/frontpage) it is (sorry twickster 🙂 ) ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2007, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/6 "2007-02-22T18:08:09Z")
Curses! Foiled again! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2007, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/7 "2007-02-23T04:45:14Z")
:sets himself up for failure: I won this thing a few years ago, came in 2nd the next year, and got all but 2 correct last year. However, this year is much tougher! Good luck everyone! Game on! ---
**Author:** ![Sternvogel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc79bd/32.png) [@Sternvogel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sternvogel)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2007, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/8 "2007-02-23T20:48:39Z")
The Lafayette _Journal & Courier_ has a similar contest, but predictions were solicited in only eleven of the categories, and the prizes are books of passes to the local Goodrich Quality Theater outlets. For the **SDMB** competition, I duplicated my picks in the relevant categories, and (more or less randomly) guessed the remaining winners. Since I’ve only seen two of the films involved (_Little Miss Sunshine_ and _An Inconvenient Truth_), it’ll be interesting to see how I stack up against the more serious film buffs! ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/9 "2007-02-25T01:14:07Z")
I won this a few years ago too (got a Breakfast At Tiffanys CD!) but it was a total fluke. Instead of picking who/what I _thought_ would win, I just straight out picked who/what I _wanted_ to win, which entailed a complete **Return of the King** sweep. Of course, no way in hell was **Return of the King** going to sweep, so I never expected to win. It never even crossed my mind I would win. **Return of the King** swept. Whoo!! Best Oscars EVER for me personally! This year I have no idea, and don’t really care. I’ve seen all the nominees except for Half Nelson and United 93, but I really have no horses in this race. After last year’s **Brokeback Mountain** loss (the Worst Oscars Ever for me) I decided it’s not a good thing to get emotionally invested in the results. I’m happy for all the nominees and I’ll be OK with the winners\*. This year I chose a mixture of movies/people I think will win and movies/people I want to win. I might change the winners sometime between now and tomorrow night. Best Picture **Will win: BABEL** Want to win: The Departed Should or should probably win: Letters From Iwo Jima Actor in a Leading Role \*\*Will win: Peter O´Toole \*\* Want to win: Peter O´Toole or Leo Dicaprio Should or should probably win: Forest Whitaker (I still think he was Supporting) Actor in a Supporting Role **Will win: Alan Arkin** Want to win: Jackie Earle Haley Should or should probably win: Eddie Murphy (Norbit could hurt him) Actress in a Leading Role **Will win: Helen Mirren** Want to win: Penélope Cruz Should or should probably win: Judi Dench or Helen Mirren Actress in a Supporting Role \*\*Will win: Jennifer Hudson \*\* Want to win: Adriana Barraza Should or should probably win: Cate Blanchett Animated Feature Film \*\*Will win: CARS \*\* Want to win: Monster House Should or should probably win: Monster House Art Direction \*\*Will win: PAN´S LABYRINTH \*\* Want to win: The Good Shepherd or Pan’s Labyrinth Should or should probably win: Pan’s Labyrinth Cinematography \*\*Will win: CHILDREN OF MEN \*\* Want to win: Children of Men Or Pan’s Labyrinth Should or should probably win: The Prestige Costume Design **Will win: CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER** Want to win: Marie Antoinette Should or should probably win: Curse of the Golden Flower Directing **Will win: Martin Scorsese** Want to win: Martin Scorsese Should or should probably win: Martin Scorsese Documentary Feature **Will win: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH** Want to win: No opinion (since Shut Up and Sing wasn’t nominated) Should or should probably win: No opinion Documentary Short Subject **Will win: THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT** Want to win: No opinion Should or should probably win: No opinion Film Editing **Will win: THE DEPARTED** Want to win: Thelma! Should or should probably win: United 93 (from what I’ve heard) Foreign Language Film **Will win: PAN´S LABYRINTH** Want to win: Pan’s Labyrinth Should or should probably win: No opinion Makeup **Will win: APOCALYPTO** Want to win: Apocalypto Should or should probably win: Apocalypto Music (Original Score) **Will win: THE GOOD GERMAN** Want to win: The Good German Should or should probably win: No opinion Music (Original Song) \*\*Will win: “Listen” - DREAMGIRLS \*\* Want to win: “Listen” Should or should probably win: No opinion Short Film (Animated) \*\*Will win: THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL \*\* Want to win: No opinion Should or should probably win: No opinion Short Film (Live Action) **Will win: WEST BANK STORY** Want to win: No opinion Should or should probably win: No opinion Sound Editing \*\*Will win: APOCALYPTO \*\* Want to win: Apocalypto Should or should probably win: No opinion Sound Mixing \*\*Will win: APOCALYPTO \*\* Want to win: Apocalypto Should or should probably win: No opinion Visual Effects **Will win: PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN´S CHEST** Want to win: No opinion Should or should probably win: No opinion Writing (Adapted Screenplay) \*\*Will win: CHILDREN OF MEN \*\* Want to win: Children of Men or Borat Should or should probably win: No opinion Writing (Original Screenplay) \*\*Will win: LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE \*\* Want to win: Pan’s Labyrinth Should or should probably win: No opinion 1. Unless **Little Miss Sunshine** wins Best Picture, then I’ll be sad for it because it’ll become the butt of jokes and first on any future list of Movies That Shouldn’t Have Won Best Picture. It’ll be hated, and it doesn’t deserve to be hated. 2. Unless Marty loses which would just be such a huge slap in the face to him ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/10 "2007-02-25T15:34:24Z")
For a final bump, here’s where my votes would go (\* indicates it’s also my predicted winner): **Apocalypto** : Sound Mixing **Babel** : Suppporting Actress (Kikuchi) **Children of Men** : Cinematography\* **Curse of the Golden Flower** : Costume Design **The Departed** : Picture\*, Director\*, Adapted Screenplay\* **Dreamgirls** : Song (“Listen”)\* **Half Nelson** : Actor (Gosling) **Letters from Iwo Jima** : Sound Editing\* **Little Children** : Supporting Actor (Haley)\* **Pan’s Labyrinth** : Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Makeup\*, Original Score\* **Pirates of the Caribbean: DMC** : Visual Effects\* **The Prestige** : Art Direction **The Queen** : Actress (Mirren)\* **United 93** : Editing We have 16 Dopers signed up so far! Good Luck to everybody, and Thanks for Playing! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![8675309](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/8/ea5d25/32.png) [@8675309](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/8675309)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/11 "2007-02-25T18:44:48Z")
I made my picks! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/12 "2007-02-25T18:51:35Z")
I’ll be damned if I can find the place on that Web site to enter the contest. ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/13 "2007-02-25T19:21:48Z")
The link in post #5 will take you there, as will [this](http://predict.oscar.go.com/predict/frontpage) link. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/14 "2007-02-25T19:37:08Z")
[QUOTE=twickster] The link in post #5 will take you there, as will [this](http://predict.oscar.go.com/predict/frontpage) link. [/QUOTE] Not open to anyone who doesn’t live in the United States. Any other ideas, or is this an American-only SDMB contest? ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/15 "2007-02-25T20:23:35Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] Not open to anyone who doesn’t live in the United States. Any other ideas, or is this an American-only SDMB contest? [/QUOTE] State: California Zip: 90210 That is what I did. I don’t know, maybe it is American only, if so…oops. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/16 "2007-02-25T22:34:00Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] Not open to anyone who doesn’t live in the United States. Any other ideas, or is this an American-only SDMB contest? [/QUOTE] Most definitely not–if you win, I’ll ship internationally. If putting a fake zip doesn’t work, just post your guesses here and I’ll count them with everyone else (I’ll only do this for you foreigners!). Best of luck, since Canada is one of the 5 Foreign Language nominees. ---
**Author:** ![Rodgers01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@Rodgers01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rodgers01)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2007, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/17 "2007-02-25T23:06:10Z")
Aw damn, this is what I get for procrastinating and not putting my picks on the Oscar website – editing is now locked. So I’m destined to be in last place on the official list, even though I’ll still list my picks here. ☹ So here goes: Best Picture: The Departed Director: Scorsese Actor: Forrest Whitaker Actress: Helen Mirren Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy Editing: Departed Animated Feature: Cars Foreign Languge Film: Pan’s Labyrinth Dunno about the rest, though I may edit this post to add some categories if I get an inspiration between now and showtime. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2007, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/18 "2007-02-26T00:18:19Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] Most definitely not–if you win, I’ll ship internationally. If putting a fake zip doesn’t work, just post your guesses here and I’ll count them with everyone else (I’ll only do this for you foreigners!). Best of luck, since Canada is one of the 5 Foreign Language nominees. [/QUOTE] Picture: The Departed Director: Clint Eastwood Actor: Whittaker Actress: Winslet (yes, a HUGE upset guess - but the Academy is enormously biased towards young actresses in this category) Sup. Actor: Arkin Sup. Actress: Hudson Cinematography: The Prestige Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth Editing: United 93 Costume Design: Marie Antionette Best Animated Feature: Cars Animated Short: The Danish Poet Beat Foreign Language Film: Pan’s Labyrinth Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine Ad. Screenplay: Little Children Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth Documentary Short: Rehearsing a Dream Live Action Short: The Saviour Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth Original Score: The Good German Song: “Our Town,” Cars Sound Editing: Pirates of the Caribbean 2 Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean 2 ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2007, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/19 "2007-02-26T01:12:44Z")
[QUOTE=Equipoise] Sound Mixing \*\*Will win: APOCALYPTO \*\* Want to win: Apocalypto Should or should probably win: Apocalypto (was No opinion) [/QUOTE] I’d like to change that “No opinion” to Apocalypto. I haven’t learned more about Sound Mixing in the past day or so, but I have learned more about the person who’s nominated, \*\*_Kevin O’Connell_ \*\* . This is his 19th! nomination in 22 years with NO wins. He used to be a firefighter and his mother, who worked in the Sound department at 20th Century Fox (I think), talked him into coming to work there. He obviously had a talent for Sound Mixing so I think he should win. It’s time. And besides, if he wins that means that **Apocalypto** goes home with at least one Oscar. I’d love to see him win and get an “IT’S ABOUT TIME!” standing ovation. His nominations list (remember, he’s a sound guy, and has nothing to do with script or direction): Apocalypto (2006) Memoirs of a Geisha Spider-Man 2 Spider-Man Pearl Harbor The Patriot Armageddon The Mask of Zorro Con Air The Rock Twister Crimson Tide A Few Good Men Days of Thunder Black Rain Top Gun Silverado Dune Terms of Endearment (1984) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2007, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013/20 "2007-02-26T01:26:56Z")
Just on the line: Picture: Letters From Iwo Jima Director: Martin Scorsese Actor: Peter O’Toole Actress: Judi Dench Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy Supporting Actress: Breslin Cinematography: Pan’s Labyrinth Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth Editing: United 93 Costume Design: Marie Antionette Best Animated Feature: Cars Animated Short: The little Match Girl Beat Foreign Language Film: Pan’s Labyrinth Screenplay: Letters From Iwo Jima Adapted Screenplay: Borat Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth Documentary Short: Recycled life Live Action Short: West Bank Story Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth Original Score: The Good German Song: Cars Sound Editing: Pirates of the Caribbean 2 Sound Mixing: Pirates of the Caribbean 2 Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean 2 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2007-sdmb-oscar-prediction-contest-with-prizes/393013.md?page=2)