# 2008 Election will come down to North Carolina and Virginia **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 28, 2008, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011 "2008-10-28T23:48:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/1 "2008-10-28T23:48:56Z")
Just like 2000 and 2004 were determined by Ohio and Florida. I’ve been going over CNN’s [Electoral Map Calculator](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/) and started with a 269-269 tie scenario. I went through all the states, looking for an opening, and I found it with North Carolina and Virgina. We’ll just have to watch CNN on election night to see if my prediction is right. ---
**Author:** ![atomicbadgerrace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8e7dd6/32.png) [@atomicbadgerrace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/atomicbadgerrace)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/2 "2008-10-28T23:53:16Z")
I’m sorry, I just don’t see it. Sure, Virginia and North Carolina will play a part, but they won’t be the single deciding factors. I like to think with a good mix of realism and optimism, and based on the [overwhelmingly consistent trends](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) over the past few weeks, it’s not going to be as close as 28 EV. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/3 "2008-10-29T00:08:11Z")
> [@atomicbadgerrace](#): > > I’m sorry, I just don’t see it. Sure, Virginia and North Carolina will play a part, but they won’t be the single deciding factors. I like to think with a good mix of realism and optimism, and based on the [overwhelmingly consistent trends](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) over the past few weeks, it’s not going to be as close as 28 EV. You think it will be that close? I dunno…I’m thinking Obama is going to pull a major upset. What I mean by that is I think Obama is going to win by a wider margin than those anxious folk out there currently think. ---
**Author:** ![kenner116](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecb155/32.png) [@kenner116](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenner116)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/4 "2008-10-29T00:21:06Z")
Close. It will come down to Virginia and Colorado. If Obama wins North Carolina, then he’s already got Virginia. If Obama can’t get Virginia, Colorado is his best bet to pull off a close electoral victory. Another possibility being a Colorado loss and a Nevada win, which could lead to a 269-269 tie. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/5 "2008-10-29T00:22:20Z")
If Obama wins Florida, I don’t think North Carolina will matter much. If he wins Ohio and PA, he doesn’t need Virginia either. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/6 "2008-10-29T00:27:47Z")
Obama should win VA. If he wins VA and every state that Kerry won, it’s over. As soon as the networks call VA for Obama, you can go to sleep. The same can be said for FL or OH but VA should come first. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/7 "2008-10-29T00:30:39Z")
Virginia’s pretty far in the bag for Obama by now. If he loses that, he’s in for a long night, I agree, but I think it’ll be called for him fairly early. North Carolina is a tossup, like Indiana and perhaps Florida, but I don’t think he needs either of those states. I’ve actually said a few times that Obama may win without Ohio and Florida - right now they’re both leaning his way, Ohio moreso than Florida. Basically, it’s Obama’s night if Indiana, North Carolina and Georgia go his way, or are close. He’s in trouble if Pennsylvania gets tight, coupled with long waits in Ohio or Florida. I think those are the early “tells” this year. I don’t think it’s going to be close enough that it comes down to anywhere - I think you’ll see fairly early that Obama is cruising to a win. But if it comes down to anywhere, it’s probably not Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![Bytegeist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9dc877/32.png) [@Bytegeist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bytegeist)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/8 "2008-10-29T01:05:45Z")
Going by [this map](http://www.electoral-vote.com/), it looks like Obama’s got the Great Lakes almost sewn up. ---
**Author:** ![Hamadryad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/6de8d8/32.png) [@Hamadryad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamadryad)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/9 "2008-10-29T01:24:43Z")
I don’t think we (Virginia) are as much in the bag as you think - SW Virginia is damned near West Virginia in temperament. There’s a lot of “Old Money” in Richmond, and they skew heavily Republican. Eric Cantor is from my district, foir cryin’ out loud. I sincerely HOPE that we tilt for Obama, but I don’t consider it anything like a sure thing. ---
**Author:** ![Spezza](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a698b9/32.png) [@Spezza](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spezza)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/10 "2008-10-29T01:31:13Z")
Totally VA and OH. Win those and goodnight. meh. Just win _one_ of those and goodnight; baring a big upset somewhere else, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/11 "2008-10-29T01:40:13Z")
If McCain wins Pennsylvania, all the marbles rest on Coloroado. If McCain loses PA, Colorado won’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![atomicbadgerrace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8e7dd6/32.png) [@atomicbadgerrace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/atomicbadgerrace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/12 "2008-10-29T06:38:00Z")
> [@Phlosphr](#): > > You think it will be that close? I dunno…I’m thinking Obama is going to pull a major upset. What I mean by that is I think Obama is going to win by a wider margin than those anxious folk out there currently think. No, I said I don’t think it will be that close. I agree; Obama is going to end up with well over 300 by the time all is said and done. I wouldn’t say “in the bag,” but I’d agree that Virginia will probably end up swinging for him. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-election-will-come-down-to-north-carolina-and-virginia/470011/13 "2008-10-29T23:32:47Z")
> [@kenner116](#): > > Close. It will come down to Virginia and Colorado. If Obama wins North Carolina, then he’s already got Virginia. If Obama can’t get Virginia, Colorado is his best bet to pull off a close electoral victory. Another possibility being a Colorado loss and a Nevada win, which could lead to a 269-269 tie. I think you’re right. I went through the CNN electorial map analysis again. It might come down to Georgia.