# 2008 U.S. Senate Races: Speculation and Commentary Thread #1 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 27, 2008, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790 "2008-05-27T18:03:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2008, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/41 "2008-05-29T18:51:17Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] Oh, look! It’s the UTTER MYTH of the “liberal media”… [/QUOTE] Warning … [Cite from a source not approved by the liberal wing of the SDMB](http://www.mediaresearch.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp#TV%20and%20Newspaper%20Journalists) I’m sure you’ve debunked all of these in the past but just remind me of a few please. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2008, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/42 "2008-05-29T19:05:25Z")
The NC numbers are eye-opening. Hagen (D), with virtually no name recognition, is running against local favorite Elizabeth Dole ® and polling within the margin of error, even though Blacks have been undercounted (24% of voters are black, but only 20% of those polled were black) and only 4% of all voters are undecided. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/43 "2008-05-29T19:37:52Z")
[QUOTE=What the … !!!] Warning … [Cite from a source not approved by the liberal wing of the SDMB](http://www.mediaresearch.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp#TV%20and%20Newspaper%20Journalists) I’m sure you’ve debunked all of these in the past but just remind me of a few please. [/QUOTE] There’s not one thing in that article that demonstrates any bias in the media. That article makes a case that most journalists lean left in varying degrees, but does not even remotely attempt to make the case that it impacts their reporting… ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/44 "2008-05-29T19:40:53Z")
There’s a shutoff valve. Just behind the ear. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/45 "2008-05-30T02:32:39Z")
**What the … !!!** and **Everyone arguing with him** about the “divided government” or the “liberal media,” those topics are interesting, but they are absolutely irrelevant to a discussion regarding which senate seats will be held, (won or lost), by which party in the upcoming election. Open a new thread or drop the subjects, but please,everyone, knock off the hijacks. [/Modding] ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/46 "2008-05-30T03:23:45Z")
Polling data is likely to mislead at this point, unless interpreted carefully. The go-to website for horserace info at the Senate, House and Gubernatorial levels, is [D.C.'s Political Report](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/). [Click a state here](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/update.htm). Stars indicate how entertaining each race is expected to be. Even better, D.C. lists how the major political consultants view the race. Polling data is available for a fee. Let’s take a look at the Senate race in [Virginia](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/VA.htm): D.C. thinks it will have maximum excitement: > [@](#): > > John W. Warner (R) retiring after 5th term, next election in 2008. > D.C.'s Political Report’s Rating: \*\*\*\*\*, > Chris Cillizza: Most Likely Seats to Switch Party, > Congressional Quarterly’s Scorecard: Democrat Favored, > Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat, > National Journal’s Rankings: Most Likely to Switch Parties, > Robert Novak: Likely Democratic, > Roll Call’s Outlook: Leans Democratic, > Rothenberg Political Report: Likely Democratic, > Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic Muckrakers will be following the [Alaska races](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/AK.htm) closely. Will this Republican state return the corrupt earmarking Representative [Don Young](http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/don_young/) and the corrupt Senator [Ted Stevens](http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/ted_stevens/) to power? > [@](#): > > Senator, 78.2% in '02, 4th term, might retire, next elections in 2008, > D.C.'s Political Report’s Rating: \*\*\*\*, > Chris Cillizza: 9th Likely Seats to Switch Party, > Congressional Quarterly’s Scorecard: Leans Republican, > Cook Political Report: Likely Republican, > Robert Novak: Likely Republican, > Roll Call’s Outlook: Leans Republican, > Rothenberg Political Report: Clear Advantage Republican, > Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican, > National Journal’s Rankings: 9th Most Likely to Switch Parties > > At-Large Congressional District, 56.6% in '06, 18th term, might retire, > D.C.'s Political Report’s Rating: \*\*\*\*\*, > Congressional Quarterly’s Scorecard: No Clear Favorite, > Cook Political Report: Lean Republican, > Roll Call’s Outlook: Tossup, > Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up / Tilt Republican Senator Stevens (R) is favored for re-election, despite probes from the Investigator General of the Department of the Interior and possible bribery by Veco executives. Then again, he pulled down a cool $88 million in earmarks for the state, so he can’t be all bad. In the House, Don Young (R) might be toppled. It looks like a real nail biter! ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/47 "2008-05-30T03:31:06Z")
Great. I just realized that I slipped in a hijack when I listed info on Alaska’s At Large Congressional Rep. This is a Senate Race thread, MfM! :smack: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/48 "2008-05-30T13:19:30Z")
[QUOTE=What the … !!!] Warning … [Cite from a source not approved by the liberal wing of the SDMB](http://www.mediaresearch.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp#TV%20and%20Newspaper%20Journalists) [/QUOTE] [See you](http://www.amazon.com/What-Liberal-Media-Truth-about/dp/0465001777/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1212153500&sr=8-1) and [raise you.](http://www.amazon.com/Republican-Noise-Machine-Right-Wing-Democracy/dp/0307236897/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1212153547&sr=1-1) ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/49 "2008-05-30T13:35:25Z")
[QUOTE=DoctorJ] Mitch apparently thinks Obama can only hurt Lunsford, as he’s been out there talking about the “Obama-Lunsford Plan for America”. [/QUOTE] That sure worked wonders for them in MS and LA! -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/50 "2008-05-30T15:17:24Z")
From The Hill: [Early polls suggest Dems can increase Senate majority](http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/early-polls-suggest-dems-can-take-many-gop-senate-seats-2008-05-27.html) > [@](#): > > A flood of recent polls supports Democratic arguments that the party will win a larger majority in the Senate in the next election. > > Democrats have now polled ahead or within the margin of error in 11 Republican-held seats, as polls conducted in recent weeks show openings in second-tier targets including Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas. > > There are 23 Republican seats up for grabs this election cycle — including five open seats. Democrats have only 12 members up for reelection and no open seats. > > The only Democratic-held seat that is polling close is in Louisiana… 60 sounds nice. ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/51 "2008-05-30T16:17:44Z")
[QUOTE=ITR champion] The Alaska race is intriguing. The Democrats are also posting strong challenges in Oklahoma and Kansas. [/QUOTE] If I had a farm, I’d bet that Jim Inhofe (R-OK) will be reelected. His competitor (Andrew Rice) has zero name recognition outside of central Oklahoma City that he represents in the Oklahoma State Senate. That’s too bad too because he seems like a genuinely good guy and I believe that we could use more people like him in the Senate. Even though I’m pretty conservative, I can’t stand Jim Inhofe. I had a few occasions to talk to him when he was Mayor of Tulsa and I worked in a pawnshop. He had a thing for nice guns. He seemed quite arrogant and fairly stupid. That’s a double whammy for a Senator. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/52 "2008-05-30T17:36:34Z")
[QUOTE=tomndebb] **What the … !!!** and **Everyone arguing with him** about the “divided government” or the “liberal media,” those topics are interesting, but they are absolutely irrelevant to a discussion regarding which senate seats will be held, (won or lost), by which party in the upcoming election. Open a new thread or drop the subjects, but please,everyone, knock off the hijacks. [/Modding] [/QUOTE] As has been pointed out before, I think, [there is a thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=469461) which specifically addresses the question of whether people vote to achieve a divided government and if that will effect how they vote come November(Senate, House, or Presidential election). True, its gone off page, but hey, it’s not like it would be a zombie thread if anyone wanted to bump it up with a new idea. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/53 "2008-05-30T21:06:16Z")
[QUOTE=Measure for Measure] Polling data is likely to mislead at this point, unless interpreted carefully. The go-to website for horserace info at the Senate, House and Gubernatorial levels, is [D.C.'s Political Report](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/). [Click a state here](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/update.htm). [/QUOTE] Maybe it’s just me, but I found that site _extremely_ hard to read. Nor could I find the commentary you quoted at the links you provided. (Of course, that could’ve been because the linked pages were difficult for me to read. :)) Here’s some other references: I’ve already mentioned [pollster.com](http://pollster.com/) as my polling source. There’s also the [(PDF) Cook Report’s Senate race ratings](http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2008%20sen_ratings_may22.pdf), and [CQ’s Senate race ratings](http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate). Both CQ and Charlie Cook have been around awhile, and are respected. (I still like my own ratings better than either of theirs. :p) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2008, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/54 "2008-05-30T21:15:39Z")
One new poll of interest: [Rasmussen](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/mississippi/toplines_mississippi_special_senate_election_may_27_2008) has Musgrove (D) leading Wicker (R), 47-46, for the race to finish the rest of Trent Lott’s term. (IOW, essentially tied.) Just another data point saying this is anybody’s ballgame. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2008, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/55 "2008-06-03T19:06:23Z")
90-year-old Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) [was just hospitalized with a fever,](http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5goXN0rCmKKoSp9ercvHMWoR2-PQgD912OAIO1) for the third time in as many months. Another open seat, perhaps? Even if his life is not in danger, his capacity to serve effectively probably is; he might feel obliged to resign. ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2008, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/56 "2008-06-05T01:23:29Z")
I would like to bump this thread to note a couple of items that came as the result of primaries held yesterday: 1. As I predicted upthread, Steve Pearce is the Republican nominee for Senate in New Mexico. 2. The primaries in New Jersey have taken place. Incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg beat Representative Rob Andrews by a wide margin in the Democratic primary, while former Representative Dick Zimmer defeated two opponents to become the Republican nominee. Of these results, the New Mexico race holds the same status as before. In New Jersey, meanwhile, the Republicans may have their best challenger outside of Louisiana, but, given the recent history of New Jersey electorally, it probably will not be enough. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2008, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/57 "2008-06-05T16:50:53Z")
[QUOTE=Governor Quinn] In New Jersey, meanwhile, the Republicans may have their best challenger outside of Louisiana [/QUOTE] Speaking of Louisiana, [a May 27 Rasmussen poll](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/louisiana/toplines_louisiana_senate_may_28_2008) says that race is tight, showing Landrieu ahead 47-44, well within the MOE. I’d had that one as ‘likely Dem’; might belong as more of a ‘lean.’ ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2008, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/58 "2008-06-06T17:36:37Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Maybe it’s just me, but I found that site _extremely_ hard to read. Nor could I find the commentary you quoted at the links you provided. [/QUOTE] D.C. consolidates the predictions from the political handicappers. Step by step: [http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/) Look at the left column and click “State by State Coverage”. Click a state on the map. Let’s try Virginia. Skip the ad. There will be a list of all contests, along with CQ’s, Charlie Cook’s, Roll Call’s, Larry Saboto’s etc. characterization of the race. I see that Virginia’s Senate race looks exciting. D.C. doesn’t give a very good bird’s eye view of all the races though, so it’s worth downloading the charts from Charlie Cook et al. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2008, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/59 "2008-06-06T19:27:30Z")
[QUOTE=Measure for Measure] D.C. consolidates the predictions from the political handicappers. Step by step: [http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/](http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/) Look at the left column and click “State by State Coverage”. Click a state on the map. Let’s try Virginia. Skip the ad. There will be a list of all contests, along with CQ’s, Charlie Cook’s, Roll Call’s, Larry Saboto’s etc. characterization of the race. [/quote] OK, I followed all that. I’d gotten to that page before, it’s just _reading it when you get there_ that’s the challenge. It’s crowded, poorly organized, and is a serious eyestrain-inducer. > [@](#): > > I see that Virginia’s Senate race looks exciting. If that’s what they’re saying, they’re nuts. Gilmore’s such a loser, he can’t even get the Va. GOP’s bigshots (e.g. John Warner, Tom Davis) to endorse him. He’s not even going to win a lousy copy of the home game. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2008, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790/60 "2008-06-07T02:46:20Z")
Well by “Exciting” I meant “Entertaining”, which is the basis for D.C.'s 5 star scale. I guess D.C. is best if you want to check the consensus on a particular Congressional district. They list active websites and the characterization of some of the professional electoral analysts. For example, if a primary opponent doesn’t even have a website, he probably isn’t especially serious. Another horserace site is [The Rothenberg Political Report](http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/). He predicts a [3-5 seat gain](http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/05/new-print-edition-2008-senate-overview.html) for the Dems, and he is certain of a gain of at least 1 seat. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2008-u-s-senate-races-speculation-and-commentary-thread-1/450790.md?page=4)