# 2009 Election Results **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 4, 2009, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238 "2009-11-04T01:39:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/21 "2009-11-04T03:14:43Z")
Is Corzine’s party (D) or (GS)? ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/22 "2009-11-04T03:26:40Z")
SSM now trailing by 1,600 with 28% reporting in Maine. ---
**Author:** ![Reepicheep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ed655f/32.png) [@Reepicheep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reepicheep)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/23 "2009-11-04T03:28:23Z")
NBC now projecting [Christie](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33608707/ns/politics-more_politics/). ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/24 "2009-11-04T03:30:41Z")
Biggest two surprises so far - Bloomberg is in a real fight, and Hoffman is trailing in NY-23. The Christie win sends a bigger message nationally, I think. The Democrats pulled out the stops for Corzine. Obama went there repeatedly to boost him. He outspent Christie more than 3-1. I actually didn’t think Corzine would lose. The deck looked too stacked against Christie. The most important fact of the night so far is that the kingmakers have been the independents. They voted for Obama in Virginia by a 15 point margin in 2008, and in a huge swing they broke 65-35 for McDonnell. If that picture of independent swinig votes holds true across the board, it should be ringing alarm bells in the White House. Independents are now the largest political bloc, and if they have moved that far to the right, the Democrats are in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/25 "2009-11-04T03:31:36Z")
nvm ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/26 "2009-11-04T03:31:43Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](#): > > But Hoffman, who doesn`t even live in the district, has been supported almost entirely by Tea Baggers and anti-gay rights and anti-abortion rights activists. They’re from all over the country and they descended into New York to push their agenda. They took a perfectly acceptable Republican moderate and caused such an uproar that she quit. > > There seems to be a small but very angry group of people who’re mostly motivated by fear and hate and anger but occasionally mention spending too. Whether they win the election or not they were successful at dragging the Republican party to the right and now they’re definitely going to try to do it more in 2010. I agree with you that Palin and company will be trying this next year even if it does not work in New York. I suppose moderate Republicans could push back if Hoffman loses, but I think some of them are just being pushed into the blue column instead. People keep saying moderates need to take back the GOP, but it’s not happening. They’re quitting instead. Personally, I’m just rooting for the poetic justice angle. CNN has the race at 50-45-5 for Owens with 39% reporting. That math speaks for itself. If that holds up, the Republicans lose that seat because the nutjobs refused to sully their hands by working with a moderate. Everybody’s now calling the NJ race for Christie. I am officially the first to report that he will be the country’s first double-named governor since Tommy Thompson. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Biggest two surprises so far - Bloomberg is in a real fight, and Hoffman is trailing in NY-23. I’m surprised how close the mayoral race has been, too, but even so, everybody’s called it for Bloomberg. I’m wondering if the polls underestimated how many people would stay home because of the term limit issue, or because everyone expected a rout. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/27 "2009-11-04T03:35:53Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > …Independents are now the largest political bloc, and if they have moved that far to the right, the Democrats are in trouble. They are also the most fluid. How many of those who self-identify as “independents” are simply Republicans in recovery? This doesn’t mean that “independents” move to the right, but that the right moved to be independent. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/28 "2009-11-04T03:40:34Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > They are also the most fluid. How many of those who self-identify as “independents” are simply Republicans in recovery? This doesn’t mean that “independents” move to the right, but that the right moved to be independent. My best reading of it is that the Republicans alienated the independents, who quit the party. Now the Democrats are in charge, and the Independents have discovered they like them even less. The independents aren’t changing their positions - they’re trying to find a home. But both parties keep letting them down. You’re right - this makes them a very volatile group. It’s clear that neither party can take their support for granted. The people who should not be chortling with glee tonight are the Republicans. Their approval ratings have not improved one bit. This election is more of a referendum on Democratic policies and the state of the economy in general - not an endorsement of Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/29 "2009-11-04T03:40:38Z")
Good victories for the Republicans. Good for them and for the country. Astonished that Bloomberg is in such a close race. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/30 "2009-11-04T03:42:12Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I’m surprised how close the mayoral race has been, too, but even so, everybody’s called it for Bloomberg. NBC has retracted their call. It is apparently getting even closer. On edit: Looking at the current results, it looks to me like Bloomberg is in. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/31 "2009-11-04T03:46:46Z")
Didn’t I recently read that the incumbent Virginia governor, Tim Kaine, made the three-man short list of Obama’s VP choices last year, along with Biden and Bayh? I would have thought that’d help him. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/32 "2009-11-04T03:48:25Z")
The ballot irregularities in NY23 just fill me with joy, it’ll be like our very own Al Franken and that other guy he ran against. More of a chance for teabaggers to rest their nuts on our foreheads for the next few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![kenner116](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecb155/32.png) [@kenner116](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenner116)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/33 "2009-11-04T03:50:05Z")
Kaine isn’t running due to term limits. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/34 "2009-11-04T03:51:20Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > On edit: Looking at the current results, it looks to me like Bloomberg is in. His lead seems to be widening a little, but it’s only 5 points or so. But CNN has called it for Bloomberg. > [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Didn’t I recently read that the incumbent Virginia governor, Tim Kaine, made the three-man short list of Obama’s VP choices last year, along with Biden and Bayh? I would have thought that’d help him. He can’t run for re-election. Governors in Virginia are limited to only one term. With 64 percent of the vote in upstate, Owens leads Hoffman 49-46. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/35 "2009-11-04T03:56:19Z")
[538.Com](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) has a great rundown and I have come to respect them as tellers of the truth…whatever it may be…as best as they can determine it (all seems a little mystical to me but they are rigorous with their math). Anyway here’s what he is Twittering as of now: > [@](#): > > AP finally calls race for Bloomberg. The local spin is that it’s a moderately embarrassing outcome for him, however, given the $$$ invested. about 1 minute ago reply > > Note that McDonnell’s win in VA wound up being pretty huge: 59-41. 9 minutes ago reply > > It looks to me like the Bloomberg districts in NYC have less % of their vote in than the Thompson ones. He’s probably reasonably safe. 14 minutes ago reply > > Not sure it looks too good for gay marriage in Maine. Cumberland County, the most liberal in the state, is way overrepresented so far. 18 minutes ago reply > > Owens leads Hoffman 51-44. But just 27 percent reporting. 32 minutes ago reply ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/36 "2009-11-04T04:01:38Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > My best reading of it is that the Republicans alienated the independents, who quit the party. Now the Democrats are in charge, and the Independents have discovered they like them even less. The independents aren’t changing their positions - they’re trying to find a home. But both parties keep letting them down. You’re right - this makes them a very volatile group. It’s clear that neither party can take their support for granted. > > The people who should not be chortling with glee tonight are the Republicans. Their approval ratings have not improved one bit. This election is more of a referendum on Democratic policies and the state of the economy in general - not an endorsement of Republicans. In general I agree. I found this bit interesting though: > [@](#): > > One of the problems with trying to interpret tomorrow’s results as a referendum on the parties is that all of the major candidates seem to be trying their darndest to conceal their party affiliation from you. Here, for instance, is a screen capture of a Bob McDonnell ad from the Washington Post’s website. > > No mention at all that he’s a Republican. Hell, he’s even using the Democrats “traditional” blue color as his background, although he’s wearing a sporty red tie. > > Go to McDonnell’s website, in fact, and the word “Republican” does not appear anywhere on his homepage. But McDonnell is not alone in this department. Chris Christie’s homepage does not identify his party affiliation, nor does Creigh Deeds’s (although the branding is very Obama-esque), nor does Jon Corzine’s (although he not-so-subtly places an [R] by Chris Christie’s name any time it appears in one of his commercials.) Bill Owens’s homepage does twice identify him as the “Democratic candidate in New York’s 23rd Congressional District”, although both instances are below the fold, and this is a guy who desperately needs to boost his name recognition. Doug Hoffman does refer to himself in passing as a “Conservative Republican” – even though, technically, he’s not a Republican, and scared the Republican nominee out of the race. > > \ > > You can actually make the argument – although maybe it’s not a good one – that Republicans should in fact find a way to pull a Blackwater and switch their party ID when nobody is looking, from Republican to capital-C Conservative. This would probably involve at least some degree of bona fide structural change, and undoubtedly some near-term trauma: an orchestrated chaos. But the ‘conservative’ brand is just as powerful as it ever was in America, whereas the Republican brand is as weak as it has been. > > SOURCE: [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/republicans-branding-problem.html](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/republicans-branding-problem.html) ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/37 "2009-11-04T04:05:50Z")
More from 538 Twitter feed: > [@](#): > > ‘No’ keeps hanging in there in Maine, up 2500 votes with 41% reporting. 3 minutes ago reply > > Still think the outstanding vote in Maine looks a little reddish, but it’s hard to say without looking at city-level data. about 1 minute ago reply ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/38 "2009-11-04T04:07:39Z")
D’oh! It was not mentioned on the news here the names of who was running, just that Virginia was going Republican. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/39 "2009-11-04T04:14:06Z")
Our very local city council elections just got called - with all three of our lawn signs getting elected. Doesn’t say much about party politics, because in my city everyone tries to get endorsed by the Democrats, if they don’t endorse you, maybe you can get the Libertarians to. But the Republican endorsement is not sought after. Nothing like realizing how wide a net parties cast -or how opportunistic politicians are to get the right label - than looking at these positions and realizing that they all want to be endorsed by the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/40 "2009-11-04T04:25:21Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > My best reading of it is that the Republicans alienated the independents, who quit the party. Now the Democrats are in charge, and the Independents have discovered they like them even less. The independents aren’t changing their positions - they’re trying to find a home. But both parties keep letting them down. You’re right - this makes them a very volatile group. It’s clear that neither party can take their support for granted. It’s also clear that no one ever could, because “the independents” are not a bloc: Some are centrists, which is probably what you’re thinking of, but some are to the right of the Pubs and some to the left of the Dems. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The people who should not be chortling with glee tonight are the Republicans. Their approval ratings have not improved one bit. This election is more of a referendum on Democratic policies and the state of the economy in general - not an endorsement of Republicans. Oh, don’t begrudge them a chortle! They need it! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238.md?page=3)