# 2009 Election Results **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 4, 2009, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238 "2009-11-04T01:39:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/81 "2009-11-04T11:31:14Z")
Local races are local. Kentucky elected a Democratic Governor over a Republican incumbent by a 60-40 margin in 2007, then turned around and went 58-41 for McCain a year later. It had nothing to do with any trends; we just happened to have a scandal-ridden jackass on the GOP side in '07. (I was embarrassed that he got 40%.) As **Sam** and others have pointed out, the only trend I think you can pick out is that independents moving toward the GOP, which is not surprising since a lot of them were Republicans a year ago. Republicans will spin that as a good thing, but it’s just the opposite; it just means their voters don’t want to be associated with their brand anymore. ---
**Author:** ![haymarketmartyr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/35a633/32.png) [@haymarketmartyr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/haymarketmartyr)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/82 "2009-11-04T12:59:32Z")
> [@](#): > > Looks like the only reason the GOP won the Governor races was because their candidates ran moderate campaigns. That helped. But what helped even more was the low turnout in two huge areas necessary for Dems - voters under thirty and minorities. That killed them in the two governors races. I suspect that 60% of females in New York voted for Owens and that will be the key to his vicory there when such things are examined. Again, Sarah Palin gets you attention and money and supporters but also gets you defeated in the end. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/83 "2009-11-04T13:05:42Z")
So nice to have the efficacy of hate as a GOTV tactic demonstrated once again. Don’t I feel special? ---
**Author:** ![MilTan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/71e660/32.png) [@MilTan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MilTan)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/84 "2009-11-04T13:36:51Z")
> [@twhitt](#): > > The lines for the district have been redrawn repeatedly; portions of the current 23rd district have not been represented by a Democrat since about 1851, if Wikipedia is to be believed. See here. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New\_York’s\_23rd\_congressional\_district\_special\_election,\_2009#Background](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_23rd_congressional_district_special_election,_2009#Background) Right, sorry – I should have been a little more precise. Many of the counties that now constitute the NY-23rd have been historically Republican. The makeup of the district itself has changed dramatically over the years. If you look at [which counties are in the 23rd](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_23rd_congressional_district#Components:_past_and_present), you’ll see that there is no overlap between the areas that were in the 23rd in 1993 and the counties in it now. I suspect the district boundaries in NY have been especially volatile recently since the state has been losing population relative to the rest of the country for a while. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/85 "2009-11-04T14:00:12Z")
[Virginia 2009 Exit Poll](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/04/us/politics/1104-va-exit-poll.html) [Virginia 2008 Exit Poll](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=VAP00p1) As you can see, the composition of the electorate changed noticeably between 2008 and 2009. The percentage of under-30 voters dropped from 21% to 10%; the percentage of nonwhite voters dropped from 30% to 22%. **IF** there was no correlation between race and age in either year, then the combined share of under-30 and minority voters dropped from 47% last year to 30% this year. The M-F ratio went from 46-54 last year to 48-52 this year. ---
**Author:** ![MeDrewNotYou](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/838e76/32.png) [@MeDrewNotYou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MeDrewNotYou)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/86 "2009-11-04T14:02:54Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Is Corzine’s party (D) or (GS)? Even though Corzine is on my team and I prefer him to Christie, his loss just elicits a shrug because of the Goldman Sachs connection. > [@Bricker](#): > > SSM in Maine: Reject legal SSM is ahead by 14,656 votes (51.8% to 48.1%) with 68% of precincts reporting. ☹ This was the biggest disappointment of the night. There’s still the possibility of a recount, but realistically things look bad. At least Washington took a step in the right direction. > [@elucidator](#): > > It was ACORN. Voter fraud. Dude! Shut up! [You want your tires slashed?](http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/hoffman-camp-right-wing-bloggers-accuse-dems-of-slashing-supporters-car----police-say-he-drove-over.php) ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/87 "2009-11-04T14:08:57Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > It looks to me that the center is a bunch of angry, slightly right of center moderates who are moderately fiscally conservative and mildly socially liberal. That pretty much describes me. I’m more to the right on national security and economic issues, but I’m pretty much a social libertarian with some liberal leanings. Given the two party system, the Republicans have always seemed to be a better choice, but I would prefer they don’t bring the social conservative baggage. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/88 "2009-11-04T14:38:13Z")
Dems are 5 for 5 in Congressional special elections this year. Last night was a good night for Nancy Pelosi. A centrist Dem (Tauscher) vacated the CA-10 seat, and was replaced by a progressive Dem. And in NY-23, a moderate Republican was replaced by a centrist Dem. So she’s probably got, on average, at least one more vote on just about anything than she did before the election. ---
**Author:** ![Drygon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/edb3f5/32.png) [@Drygon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drygon)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/89 "2009-11-04T14:52:22Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > He can’t run for re-election. Governors in Virginia are limited to only one term. I know it’s a little late, but this is not entirely true. Governors in VA are not allowed to serve consecutive terms. [Cite](http://legis.state.va.us/Laws/search/Constitution.htm#5S1) The most recent governor to do this is [Mills E. Goodwin, Jr.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mills_E._Godwin,_Jr.) who served as both a Democrat and a Republican. I have not seen a limit in the number of terms either, so I suppose it would be possible to serve as governor every other cycle. ETA: I think the only other governor to serve more than one term is [James Monroe](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Monroe) who was the 12th and 16th governor of VA. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/90 "2009-11-04T15:04:20Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Dems are 5 for 5 in Congressional special elections this year. > > Last night was a good night for Nancy Pelosi. A centrist Dem (Tauscher) vacated the CA-10 seat, and was replaced by a progressive Dem. And in NY-23, a moderate Republican was replaced by a centrist Dem. So she’s probably got, on average, at least one more vote on just about anything than she did before the election. I’m not sure I agree. I suspect that the overall tenor of the political discussion now, in the wake of these election results, will be unhelpful to public option health care, cap-and-trade, and a number of other initiatives. I think the “Blue Dogs” will see this as a reason to entrench their positions. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/91 "2009-11-04T15:07:58Z")
The most fascinating thing about NY-23 to me is that the Republican candidate only got 5% of the vote. I would have sworn it would have been more like 15%, from a combination of protest votes and ‘senior moments’, eg, people who just vote straight republican. The news wouldn’t have reached the low-information voters that soon, so… guess there’s fewer of those than I would have thought. … it also means that a LOT of people really didn’t like John Ashcroft. And he did, in fact, lose to a dead man. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/92 "2009-11-04T15:09:15Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > The most fascinating thing about NY-23 to me is that the Republican candidate only got 5% of the vote. I would have sworn it would have been more like 15%, from a combination of protest votes and ‘senior moments’, eg, people who just vote straight republican. The news wouldn’t have reached the low-information voters that soon, so… guess there’s fewer of those than I would have thought. > > … it also means that a LOT of people really didn’t like John Ashcroft. And he did, in fact, lose to a dead man. You do realize that when Scozzafava dropped out Hoffman became the Republican Candidate right? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/93 "2009-11-04T15:13:08Z")
I agree with Bricker’s most recent post. Also the Hoffman loss could be good for the Republicans if it causes saner heads to prevail in the party purge campaign. Myself, I tend to be sympathetic to the notion that what counts is ideology and not nominal party affiliation, but there’s a limit to how much ideological purity you can demand. Had Hoffman won it would have emboldened right wingers to challenge everyone to the left of Tom Coburn, and leaving aside whether you want everyone to resemble Tom Coburn or not, you cannot get candidates like him elected to anything close to a majority of offices in the US. So you need to save this type of ideological challenge for the more extreme cases. Meanwhile liberals are apparently intending to challenge moderates in the Democratic Party. So it could balance out in the end. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/94 "2009-11-04T15:13:14Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Yeah, sure, why not. The righties are delusionally trying to spin a couple of minor, off year elections as a repudiation of Obama, so they would have to agree that a teabagger losing in a Republican district is a repudiation of Palin-Bachmann style hate tactics. How else do you expect them to spin it? The Democrats will spin it that it’s merely local and has no bearing on the national situation. It’s called spin for a reason. Personally I don’t think this has any implication on the national position. I think Obama is losing some steam but not so much that it’s really trickling down to local race. And calling them tea baggers makes you look stupid. Just a personal opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/95 "2009-11-04T15:16:20Z")
I didn’t give them that name, they gave it to themselves. I agree, it makes them look stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/96 "2009-11-04T15:21:49Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I suspect that the overall tenor of the political discussion now, in the wake of these election results, will be unhelpful to public option health care, cap-and-trade, and a number of other initiatives. I think the “Blue Dogs” will see this as a reason to entrench their positions. That sounds like something that might be said if any of the so-called fiscal conservatives had managed to get elected to the house. Did I miss a victory somewhere? ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/97 "2009-11-04T15:27:57Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > I didn’t give them that name, they gave it to themselves. I agree, it makes them look stupid. They call themselves tea baggers? Idiots. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/98 "2009-11-04T15:29:50Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > How else do you expect them to spin it? The Democrats will spin it that it’s merely local and has no bearing on the national situation. It’s called spin for a reason. > > Personally I don’t think this has any implication on the national position. I think Obama is losing some steam but not so much that it’s really trickling down to local race. The point that Bricker made bears repeating here. If local Democrats take home just this lesson - that their fates depend on local issues and that general Democratic and Obama popularity won’t necessarily get them re-elected - it could make those in more moderate or conservative districts more reluctant to stick their necks out for the Party positions. And this could translate to troubles for Obama in getting his more ambitious initiatives passed, which could hurt him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/99 "2009-11-04T15:39:28Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’m not sure I agree. > > I suspect that the overall tenor of the political discussion now, in the wake of these election results, will be unhelpful to public option health care, cap-and-trade, and a number of other initiatives. I think the “Blue Dogs” will see this as a reason to entrench their positions. It’s possible, I suppose, that they will totally forget that off-year elections are base elections, and Lord knows the Dem base had no reason to get excited about Deeds or Corzine. But if they remember that off-year elections are base elections, then they might want to pass something that would give the Dem base in their districts a reason to show up, if they don’t want to be ex-Congressional Blue Dogs. After all, the GOP base will surely bring its A game next year, and the Blue Dogs will definitely feel the brunt of that. They’d better have an energized base to stack up against that. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/100 "2009-11-04T15:43:08Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > They call themselves tea baggers? > > Idiots. They don’t anymore, but they did for a few months, earlier this year, before they were finally clued in on its meaning. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238.md?page=6)