# 2009 Election Results **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 4, 2009, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238 "2009-11-04T01:39:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/101 "2009-11-04T15:44:05Z")
So the Dems increased their already sizable majority in the House, by winning in a former GOP stronghold, and the take-away message should be that Dems are in trouble and should stop their current initiatives? They’ve won every federal level race since Obama was elected (granted, not a huge sample size), and so people must be angry at Obama? I really think the idea that governorship races reflect the feeling of the electorate about the current Administration is grasping at straws. Especially in the case of Corzine, who was unpopular before Obama was elected. I think the only real message one can take from last night is that the country still has a couple years to go until public opinion moves enough to the pro-side on the gay-marriage issue. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/102 "2009-11-04T15:44:10Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > But if they remember that off-year elections are base elections, then they might want to pass something that would give the Dem base in their districts a reason to show up, if they don’t want to be ex-Congressional Blue Dogs. After all, the GOP base will surely bring its A game next year, and the Blue Dogs will definitely feel the brunt of that. They’d better have an energized base to stack up against that. Ironically, that’s strikingly similar to the argument that Conservatives make in pushing the Republican party to the right. In fact it’s exactly the same argument. Energize the base! Bring out droves of Silent Majority who normally don’t show up because you’re not conservative enough! I suppose you think it’s a good idea for them as well. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/103 "2009-11-04T15:49:24Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > It’s possible, I suppose, that they will totally forget that off-year elections are base elections, and Lord knows the Dem base had no reason to get excited about Deeds or Corzine. > > But if they remember that off-year elections are base elections, then they might want to pass something that would give the Dem base in their districts a reason to show up, if they don’t want to be ex-Congressional Blue Dogs. After all, the GOP base will surely bring its A game next year, and the Blue Dogs will definitely feel the brunt of that. They’d better have an energized base to stack up against that. Really? So… what do you expect to see happen now on cap and trade? And on public option health care? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/104 "2009-11-04T15:56:52Z")
All the fag-bashing referendums got Bush reelected in 2004, so tactically it has been effective for them. Hate is always a very effective political tool – maybe the _most_ effective – and the GOP has used it to great success since the advent of Reagan and the Moral Majority. The problem is that the Democrats don’t do hate very well. They haven’t cultivated any target groups like GLBT people or Mexican laborors to blame all of the nation’s problems on and turn out the rubes with the pitchforks. They try to be Rodney King all the time, which inspires nobody. Maybe they could load up the ballots with legalized pot referendums. Liberals are mostly all for that, and it could turn out normally lackadaisical potheads. The hard part will be getting the potheads to remember to go vote. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/105 "2009-11-04T15:58:33Z")
> [@Drygon](#): > > I know it’s a little late, but this is not entirely true. Governors in VA are not allowed to serve consecutive terms. [Cite](http://legis.state.va.us/Laws/search/Constitution.htm#5S1) > > The most recent governor to do this is [Mills E. Goodwin, Jr.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mills_E._Godwin,_Jr.) who served as both a Democrat and a Republican. > > I have not seen a limit in the number of terms either, so I suppose it would be possible to serve as governor every other cycle. > > ETA: I think the only other governor to serve more than one term is [James Monroe](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Monroe) who was the 12th and 16th governor of VA. North Carolina has a similar law, in which incumbent governors ar limited to two consecutive terms. But Jim Hunt and Jim Martin, swapping off, together served over a quarter century, two four-year terms at a time, each with the other replacing him when he was debarred from being re-elected, then running again after a term or twk out of office had elapsed. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/106 "2009-11-04T15:58:47Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Really? > > So… what do you expect to see happen now on cap and trade? And on public option health care? Both will pass. You heard it here first. Health Care will be mangled, but it will pass. The majority of voters want it. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/107 "2009-11-04T16:01:35Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Both will pass. You heard it here first. Health Care will be mangled, but it will pass. “Mangled” meaning with, or without, a public option? I agree that SOMETHING will pass. They have to, for sheer PR value. The question is will it include a public option? > [@](#): > > The majority of voters want it. Yes, sorta. The majority of voters want their health care free, but don’t want to pay for it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/108 "2009-11-04T16:06:36Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Really? > > So… what do you expect to see happen now on cap and trade? And on public option health care? Cap and trade has already passed the House, so that’s moot. And I predict that the House HCR bill will pass, sometime this month, looking pretty much like what Pelosi outlined the other day. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/109 "2009-11-04T16:07:21Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > You do realize that when Scozzafava dropped out Hoffman became the Republican Candidate right? Hoffman was the Conservative Party candidate, Scozzafava was the Republican Party candidate. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/110 "2009-11-04T16:08:17Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Hoffman was the Conservative Party candidate, Scozzafava was the Republican Party candidate. They gave the Republican nod to Hoffman when Scozzafava dropped out. The same Chairman that declared Scozzafava the candidate nodded at Hoffman. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/111 "2009-11-04T16:09:41Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Really? > > So… what do you expect to see happen now on cap and trade? And on public option health care? Were these issues in the two gubernatorial races? I don’t think there’ll be any change at all on those issues based on the outcome of these races. I know Republicans, and to some extent the media, think that any outcome of any event is good for Republicans, but it just ain’t so. Maybe the impact of the outcome of the Virginia elections feels more meaningful to you, but it’s really pretty shrugworthy to everyone else, which will be evident very soon. The Virginia governor’s race, in particular, can be seen as evidence for the opposite outcome: Deeds lost by running from liberal positions and trying to court older more conservative democrats. AS noted by MyDD: > [@](#): > > Per CNN, voters in Virginia did not see their state’s gubernatorial race as an opportunity to voice opposition to Barack Obama. A 55 percent majority of voters said that the President was not a factor in their vote, and an additional 18 percent indicated their vote in Virginia was one of support in the President. Just 24 percent of voters indicated that their vote was one of opposition to President Obama. The numbers out of New Jersey are not terribly different, with 60 percent saying that Barack Obama played no role in their gubernatorial vote, 19 percent saying that their vote was one in support of the President, and 20 percent saying that their vote was in opposition to President Obama. > Concludes CNN, this is not a referendum on Barack Obama. > Chuck Todd reports that Barack Obama’s approval rating among Virginia voters stands at 51 percent (just under the 52.6 percent of the vote he received in the state last November) and 57 percent in New Jersey (almost exactly the same as the 57.1 percent of the vote he earned in that state last November). In other words, exit polling indicates President Obama has not really lost supporters over the past year. So, why should it change anything about the public option? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/112 "2009-11-04T16:15:54Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > They gave the Republican nod to Hoffman when Scozzafava dropped out. The same Chairman that declared Scozzafava the candidate nodded at Hoffman. Would you mind citing that? This is the first I’ve heard about it. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/113 "2009-11-04T16:16:29Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I think this isn’t a good thing for the tea party movement. It looks to me that there were an awfully lot of people who ranked the parties 1) Republican 2) Democrat 3) Conservative. They would have voted Republican, but would rather vote Democrat than Conservative. That might be partly due to party loyalty in the area - I understand it’s been solidly Republican for many decades. > > But it may also mean that the tea partiers are misreading the general electorate as badly as the Democrats are. It looks to me that the center is a bunch of angry, slightly right of center moderates who are moderately fiscally conservative and mildly socially liberal. They’re pissed off, and they’re not going to let either side push them around. As a 50 year resident of what’s now NY-23, Sam has it right. Those counties are normally moderate Republican territory. They’re strong on defense, somewhat fiscally conservative, mildly socially liberal, and dislike extremism, at either end of the spectrum, strongly. It takes some effort to make any of them go Democratic, but they will if the Republican is too far right for their taste. I actually had personal dealings with Dede when I was working for the state; she’s a typical moderate Republican from a small town, willing to work with the party and not rock the boat for the most part. What she did was very much in character – faced with a losing battle and the potential that she could “be a spoiler” to hand the seat over to a hardline rightist, she withdrew and endorsed the Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/114 "2009-11-04T16:18:42Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Ironically, that’s strikingly similar to the argument that Conservatives make in pushing the Republican party to the right. In fact it’s exactly the same argument. Energize the base! Bring out droves of Silent Majority who normally don’t show up because you’re not conservative enough! > > I suppose you think it’s a good idea for them as well. It’s _exactly_ the same argument. But the _strength_ of the argument depends on a number of things, like the relative sizes of the bases, and how well the changes the respective party’s bases are pushing for will play with the broader electorate in the next Presidential year. If there were a way to design a working bet on the proposition, I’d bet a good deal of money that the more ‘progressive’ the HCR bill that ultimately passes is, the better it will sell with the overall electorate. The stronger a public option, the better; the higher the subsidies for lower and middle class families, the better; and so forth. And in general, the Dem base seems to be about policy solutions for real problems, be it health care, climate change, gay rights, families getting foreclosed on, whatever. You may agree or disagree with their policy prescriptions, but they’re trying to solve problems, and moderate voters are likely to find that a good deal more reassuring than the GOP base’s screams that OBAMA WILL BRING THE APOCALYPSE DOWN ON US!!!11! OH NOES!!, especially since that’s about all that that base brings to the table. I hope that explains why I think it’s a more effective strategy on the Dem side than on the GOP side. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/115 "2009-11-04T16:20:43Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > “Mangled” meaning with, or without, a public option? > > I agree that SOMETHING will pass. They have to, for sheer PR value. The question is will it include a public option? Yes, it will include something that they can at least _call_ a public option. > [@](#): > > Yes, sorta. The majority of voters want their health care free, but don’t want to pay for it. Cite for either one of these assertions? ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/116 "2009-11-04T16:20:58Z")
What it looks like to me is a typical off-year election. The Democrats gained a seat in the House, “everything but marriage” passed in WA. The Republicans won a couple governorships, defeated gay marriage in Maine. I can’t possibly see how anyone can spin something out of this. Besides, given the disastrous crises which Obama _inherited_ from Bush II, and a clearly depressed non-white turnout, how could one possibly expect Obama’s party to gain much? But, they did gain a little in the House. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/117 "2009-11-04T16:22:32Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Would you mind citing that? This is the first I’ve heard about it. Eh, I read it once. I don’t have the time to wade through all the post-election stuff to get to a cite for a bit of arcane knowledge that has become irrelevant at this point. Sorry. If I come across something I’ll send it to you. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/118 "2009-11-04T16:26:14Z")
Blogger David Koppel observes it was a good night for the Second Amendment: > [@](#): > > NY-23: Winning Democrat Bill Owens was A-rated by NRA (as was Hoffman). > > Virginia: Either Deeds (B rating) or McDonnell (A) were sure to be a big improvement over outgoing Governor Kaine. Deeds lost the NRA endorsement by supporting closing of the (non-existent) “gun show loophole.” In the Attorney General race, Republican Ken Cuccinelli (A+) handily defeated a D-rated Democrat who advertised very aggressively on the gun show issue. Incumbent Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (A+) trounced an F-rated challenger. > > In the Virginia House of Delegates, five Republican challengers with A ratings ousted Democratic incumbents rated F,F,B,B,B. A C-rated Republican also unseated an F Democrat incumbent. The House of Delegates already had a fairly solid pro-Second Amendment majority, so the major change in Virginia is a new Governor who, like former Governor and current Senator Mark Warner (Dem.), will sign rights-enhancing legislation passed by the legislature. > > By far the most prominent gun control advocate on the ballot this year was Jon Corzine (F). This summer, Corzine twisted lots of legislative arms to win enactment of gun rationing (“one-handgun-a-month”), a silly law that is even sillier in New Jersey, where every handgun purchase requires advance permission from the local police chief. With Christie replacing Corzine, New Jersey gun owners can hope for benign neglect rather than active hostility. The New Jersey Assembly appears to be unchanged. > > In sum: A bad night for advocates of gun show restrictions. Another fine night (as were election nights 2006 and 2008) for Democrats with A ratings from NRA. And good news for Second Amendment advocates in blue New Jersey and purple Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/119 "2009-11-04T16:27:56Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Cite for either one of these assertions? Telepathy. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2009, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238/120 "2009-11-04T16:28:46Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > What it looks like to me is a typical off-year election. The Democrats gained a seat in the House, “everything but marriage” passed in WA. The Republicans won a couple governorships, defeated gay marriage in Maine. I can’t possibly see how anyone can spin something out of this. Come, now, you must have more imagination than **that!** 😉 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-election-results/516238.md?page=7)