# 2009 NFL Prop Bet Extravaganza

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [August 9, 2009, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871 "2009-08-09T21:56:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 1

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 9, 2009, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/1 "2009-08-09T21:56:03Z")

</div>

Welcome, friends, to the 2nd Annual SDMB NFL Prop Bet Extravaganza. ([Last year’s contest](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10059521#post10059521).) Below are 42 proposition bets about the 2009 NFL regular season (a separate playoff version when the time comes is a possibility). Most of the wagers and odds are taken from various online sports books, but some are of my own design. For those who played last year, Rule #1 has been tweaked, there’s a note listed as rule 2a, and the cash prizes are now merely nominal, but otherwise the procedure is the same.

2008 Champion: \*\*Hamlet  
\*\*

**Quick-start Rules**

– You have $5000 with which to wager. You must put at least $4000 of it at risk. The minimum bet is $100, the maximum bet is $400, and all bets must be in multiples of $100 (so there are only four possible bet sizes). Within those limits, spread out your bets however you please.

– The odds will change from time to time, so it is extremely important that you scan the thread for the most recent odds before placing bets. Any post revising the odds will say so in **BIG RED LETTERS** at the top.

– You don’t have to make all your bets in one post, but can rather spread them out over up to three posts (i.e. “bet sheets”). If you do this, please clearly identify a 2nd or 3rd bet sheet as such.

– Make sure to list the odds and the question when placing a bet. Try not to stray too far from the following example:

_#3) Which bird-themed team will finish with the best record?  
$300 – Baltimore Ravens, +225_

– The objective is to finish with the most money in your bankroll. 1st place wins $5 of real money, 2nd place wins $3, 3rd place wins $1.  
**Long-Form Rules & Instructions**

Notes:  
– [Vigorish](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish) is factored into the odds; in part, this is because I want to track my “winnings” as the bookmaker. Keep in mind that the severity of the vigorish will fluctuate from question to question.

– Every wager will have odds associated with it. The odds will be listed in “[moneyline](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-odds_gambling#Moneyline_odds)” (+/-) style. So, for example:

_Will Andy Reid shave his mustache on or before December 31st, 2009?  
Yes +1200  
No -1500_

In this case, a “Yes” wager of $100 will pay $1,200 if it wins, while betting “No” would require you to risk $1,500 in order to win $100. Note that some bets will involve a point spread or an Over/Under line in addition to the moneyline odds. If at any time you’re confused by the odds listed, please ask for a clarification.

– For some of the questions, the options will not be comprehensive. For reasons of space it’s just not practical to offer odds on, say, all 32 starting QBs, in which case I just listed most of the favorites, along with some other options I found interesting.  
**RULES:**

1. Each contestant has $5,000 with which to gamble. The minimum wager is $100, the maximum wager is $400, and all wagers must be in multiples of $100 (so there are only four possible sizes for any given bet). At least 80% ($4,000) of the $5,000 bankroll must be put at risk.

Within those limits, players may make as few or as many bets as they wish, on whichever questions they choose. They may, if they desire, place more than one wager on a single question (e.g., wagering on both the Colts and the Jaguars to win the AFC South), but they may not exceed the $500 bet limit by this method (e.g. betting on the Colts to win the AFC South two separate times).

**Note that all wagers are listing the amount of money that you are putting at risk, not the amount that you stand to win.** So, in the example above, if you bet the maximum ($400) at odds of -1500 that Andy Reid would not shave his mustache, then you would be risking $400 in order to win $27.

If there’s a tie in a _“Which X will finish the season with the most/fewest Y?”_ question, all of the qualifying options will pay out; this possibility will be factored into the odds.  
2) As in the real world, **the odds will change from time to time** in response to both real world developments (e.g. injuries) and unbalanced wagering. Just like an actual sportsbook, I will seek to limit the degree to which my profits depend on particular outcomes. So, in the example above, if 90% of the early action came in on Andy Reid **not** shaving his mustache, I would probably alter the odds to make “Yes” a more attractive option.

**Therefore, it is extremely important that you scan the thread for the latest odds before placing your wagers.** When I change the odds, I will say so in **BIG RED LETTERS** at the top of a post listing the latest information for all wagers (not just the ones that have been altered). New odds will be posted as circumstances dictate, most likely once a week or so.

Naturally, changes in the odds only affect future wagers; once you place your bets, they are locked in at the odds that were current at the time of the wager.

2b) Since I can’t be at the computer 24/7 to change the odds, the house reserves  
the right to retroactively void wagers on certain wagers which take place \*after \*an event which has a major, obvious impact on the probabilities involved, but \*before \*I’ve had a chance to modify the odds to reflect the new situation.

So, for example, if Philip Rivers completely blows out his knee tomorrow morning, don’t rush to hammer Questions 34 and 35 before I can post revised odds, since those questions will be retroactively declared to be off the board until the new odds are up.

There’s no penalty for this behavior, of course, and I’ll try to keep the threshold for invoking this rule fairly high. With luck it won’t be an issue at all (it wasn’t last year). If it does come up, however, it’s only likely to come up with Questions 10 and 26-35.  
3) Each player may submit up to three “Bet Sheets” – that is, you don’t have to wager all of your $5,000 in one post, but may instead spread it out over two or three posts . This may be a useful option if you anticipate the odds moving in one direction or another and want to lock in one set of odds while waiting for others to become more favorable.

Players may “add on” to a previous wager so long as the combined amount does not exceed the $500 limit. Players may also bet opposing sides of a given wager, either because they want to take advantage of changes in the odds, or simply because they’ve had a change of heart and want to “buy back” a previous bet.

Any player submitting a second or third Bet Sheet must clearly identify it as such at the top their post. Players are responsible for keeping track of how much money they have left to risk. Any player who accidentally wagers more than $5,000 will have his or her most profitable bets voided until the total amount risked is back within the limit.  
4) All bets are final – once you can no longer edit your post, you can no longer edit your wagers.  
5) Format: Deviations from the proper format for listing wagers will not be penalized so long as the particulars of the wager are clearly discernible, but try to stick to the following boilerplate:

Question#) Question  
$Wager Amount – Answer, Odds

Sample:

#3) Which bird-themed team will finish with the best record?  
$300 – Baltimore Ravens, +350

. . . Or, for multiple wagers on the same question:

#7) Which QB will throw for the most yards?  
$400 – Peyton Manning, +700  
$100 – Matt Cassel, +5000  
6) Deadline: All Bet Sheets must be posted no later than **Thursday, September 10th, at 8:30 PM EDT**. Results will be announced after the announcement of offensive and defensive rookies of the year, which takes place a few days after the last Sunday of the regular season.  
7) Prizes: The aim of the contest is to finish with the most money. 1st Place wins $5, 2nd Place wins $3, 3rd Place wins $1.  
The initial odds will be listed below. Good luck everyone!

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 9, 2009, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/2 "2009-08-09T21:57:07Z")

</div>

**INITIAL ODDS – 8/9, 5:57 PM EDT**  
#1) Which conference will have a better record in inter-conference games?  
AFC -185  
NFC +155

#2) Which division will have the best cumulative record?  
NFC East +300  
AFC South +300  
AFC East +575  
AFC North +625  
NFC South +625  
NFC North +810  
NFC West +3700  
AFC West +3900

#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?  
AFC West +265  
NFC West +290  
NFC North +525  
AFC North +950  
NFC South + 1050  
AFC East +1200  
AFC South +2500  
NFC East +2500

#4) Name **six** teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130

#5) Name **three** teams that will win their division (all three must be correct). -120

#6) Name **four** teams that will win their division (all four must be correct). +160

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?  
Yes -330  
No +250

#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per [goldsheet.com](http://www.goldsheet.com/08nflog.php))?  
OVER 17.25 -120  
UNDER 17.25 -110

#9) Will the average number of total points scored in 2009 regular season games be OVER or UNDER 44.06 (i.e., last year’s average)?  
OVER 44.06 -105  
UNDER 44.06 -125

#10) Will the number of **TD Passes** thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?  
OVER 0.5 -105  
UNDER 0.5 -135

#11) Who will win the AFC East?  
New England -450  
New York Jets +800  
Miami +800  
Buffalo +900

#12) Who will win the AFC North?  
Pittsburgh -250  
Baltimore +300  
Cincinnati +900  
Cleveland +1200

#13) Who will win the AFC South?  
Indianapolis +140  
Tennessee +250  
Houston +350  
Jacksonville +400

#14) Who will win the AFC West?  
San Diego -350  
Denver +450  
Kansas City +800  
Oakland +1000

#15) Who will win the NFC East?  
New York Giants +165  
Philadelphia +200  
Dallas +275  
Washington +600

#16) Who will win the NFC North?  
Minnesota +160  
Chicago +170  
Green Bay +220  
Detroit +1400

#17 Who will win the NFC South?  
New Orleans +190  
Atlanta +220  
Carolina +230  
Tampa Bay +500

#18) Who will win the NFC West?  
Arizona +140  
Seattle +210  
San Francisco +240  
St. Louis +1100

#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?  
Drew Brees +225  
Tom Brady +600  
Kurt Warner +700  
Peyton Manning +700  
Aaron Rodgers +1400  
Phillip Rivers +1400  
Tony Romo +1600  
Matt Ryan +1800  
Eli Manning +4000  
Matt Hasselbeck +5000  
Matt Cassell +5000  
Any Other +250

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
Adrian Peterson +225  
Michael Turner +450  
DeAngelo Williams +800  
Clinton Portis +1200  
LaDanian Tomlinson +1400  
Steve Slaton +1400  
Maurice Jones-Drew +1500  
Chris Johnson +1600  
Brandon Jacobs +2000  
Matt Forte +2500  
Ronnie Brown +3500  
Marion Barber +3500  
Derrick Ward +5000  
Joseph Addai +6000  
Any Other +150

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
Andre Johnson +500  
Larry Fitzgerald +600  
Reggie Wayne +700  
Steve Smith +700  
Randy Moss +800  
Calvin Johnson +1000  
Greg Jennings +1400  
Marques Colston +1600  
Roddy White +1600  
Dwayne Bowe +1800  
Wes Welker +2000  
Braylon Edwards +3000  
Santonio Holmes +3000  
Any Other +100

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?  
DeMarcus Ware +500  
Joey Porter +600  
John Abraham +700  
James Harrison +900  
Jared Allen +900  
Julius Peppers +900  
Justin Tuck +900  
Mario Williams +900  
Osi Umenyiora +900  
Shawne Merriman +1200  
Dwight Freeney +1400  
Trent Cole +1800  
Mathias Kiwanuka +3000  
Terrell Suggs +3000  
Any Other -200

#23) Which team will win the **most** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
New England +195  
Pittsburgh +240  
Indianapolis +270  
New York Giants +450  
San Diego +500  
Philadelphia +500  
Tennessee +600  
Dallas +600  
Minnesota +680  
Chicago +750  
Arizona +800  
Jacksonville +1000  
Any Other +100

#24) Which team will win the **fewest** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
Detroit +150  
Oakland +250  
St. Louis +300  
Kansas City +300  
San Francisco +375  
Cleveland +375  
Tampa Bay +500  
Denver +500  
Cincinnati +600  
New York Jets +600  
Buffalo +700  
Houston +825  
Seattle +850  
Jacksonville +1000  
Any Other -110

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?  
16 +2500  
15 +800  
14 +500  
13 +450  
12 +450  
11 +450  
10 +600  
9 +1000  
8 +1800  
\< 8 +1500

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
New England -125  
New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
Philadelphia -115  
New York Giants -115

#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
Detroit -130  
Oakland +100

#29) Which team will win more regular season games?  
Pittsburgh -2, -110  
Arizona +2, -120

#30) Which team will win more regular season games?  
Chicago -2, -135  
Denver +2, +105

#31) Which team will win more regular season games?  
New England -7, -125  
Detroit +7, -110

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Peyton Manning -6.5, -115  
Eli Manning +6.5, -115

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Tom Brady -5.5, -115  
Matt Cassel +5.5, -115

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Drew Brees -2.5, -115  
Philip Rivers +2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?  
Philip Rivers -195  
Eli Manning +480  
Ben Roethlisberger +515  
Matt Schaub +950  
Any Other +10000

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?  
Knowshon Moreno +150  
Chris Wells +250  
Donald Brown +500  
Mark Sanchez +700  
Matthew Stafford +800  
Percy Harvin +1000  
LeSean McCoy +1200  
Michael Crabtree +1300  
Shonn Green +1400  
Josh Freeman +1400  
Jeremy Macklin +1800  
Hakeem Nicks +1800  
Darrius Heyward-Bay +1800  
Andre Brown +2000  
Brian Robiskie +2000  
Kenny Britt +2000  
Mike Thomas +2500  
Pat White +3000  
Mohamed Massaquoi +3000  
Brandon Pettigrew +3000  
Any Other +500

#37) Who will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year?  
Aaron Curry +500  
Tyson Jackson +700  
B.J. Raji +700  
Rey Maualuga +1000  
Brian Arakpo +1000  
Peria Jerry +1000  
Robert Ayers +1200  
Brian Cushing +1200  
Clay Matthews +1200  
Larry English +1500  
Aaron Maybin +1500  
Everette Brown +1600  
David Verkune +2000  
Roy Miller +2000  
Sen’Derrick Marks +2000  
Ron Brace +2500  
Evander Hood +2500  
Malcolm Jenkins +2500  
Vontae Davis +3000  
Clint Sintim +3500  
Any Other +400

#38) Will the player who scores the most total fantasy points be a QB, RB, or WR, given the following settings: _25/10/10, 0.5 points per reception, Passing TD = 4 points, Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6 points, fumbles lost/interceptions = -2 points_?  
Quarterback -200  
Running Back +150  
Wide Receiver +1700

#39) Which Defense/Special Teams will score the most fantasy points, given the settings detailed in [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11427421&postcount=39) (it’s pretty close to standard)?  
Pittsburgh +500  
NY Giants +550  
Baltimore +600  
Tennessee +700  
Philadelphia +720  
Minnesota +740  
Dallas +775  
Chicago +800  
Any Other +130

#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?  
Tennessee +4.5, -115  
Pittsburgh -4.5, -115

#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?  
New England -2.5, -115  
Indianapolis +2.5, -115

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” **lost** by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?  
OVER $1000 -120  
UNDER $1000 -120

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\
**Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/3 "2009-08-10T20:11:09Z")

</div>

Think I’ll make my homerish picks now and wait to bet smart on later picks

#4) Name **six** teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130  
$100 - Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Saint Louis Rams, Cleveland Browns

#16) Who will win the NFC North?  
$100 - Minnesota +160

#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?  
$100 - Aaron Rodgers +1400  
$100 - Phillip Rivers +1400

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
$100 - Adrian Peterson +225  
$100 - LaDanian Tomlinson +1400

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
$100 - Greg Jennings +1400  
#24) Which team will win the **fewest** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
$100 - Oakland +250

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
$100 - New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
$100 - Philadelphia -115  
#30) Which team will win more regular season games?  
$100 - Denver +2, +105

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
$100 - Drew Brees -2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?  
$100 - Philip Rivers -195  
#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?  
$400 - Tennessee +4.5, -115

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” **lost** by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?  
$100 - OVER $1000 -120

An interesting situation could arise in #42 if so many people bet the over that it would make sense for **VarlosZ** to make the odds on the others easier so under wins.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Stringer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Stringer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringer)\
**Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/4 "2009-08-10T22:03:29Z")

</div>

This was fun, I think this adds up to $5000.

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130  
$300 - Detroit, Cleveland, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Washington

#12) Who will win the AFC North?  
$200 Baltimore +300

#16) Who will win the NFC North?  
$1000 - Chicago +170

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
$500 - Adrian Peterson +225  
(Surprised no odds on Steven Jackson. Surely he has a better shot than Addai)

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
$200 - Reggie Wayne +700

#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
$200 - San Francisco +375  
$200 - Buffalo +700

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?  
$200 - 14 +500

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
$500 - Peyton Manning -6.5, -115

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
$500 - Tom Brady -5.5, -115

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?  
$200 - Percy Harvin +1000

#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?  
$500 - Tennessee +4.5, -115

#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?  
$500 - Indianapolis +2.5, -115

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/5 "2009-08-10T23:01:18Z")

</div>

**Stringer** , note that the maximum wager is $400. All bets over the limit will be rounded down to that amount. By my count, you have $1,000 remaining with which to gamble (though you need not put it as risk, since you’ve nonetheless reached the $4,000 minimum).

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/6 "2009-08-10T23:05:45Z")

</div>

> [@Taber](#):
>
> An interesting situation could arise in #42 if so many people bet the over that it would make sense for **VarlosZ** to make the odds on the others easier so under wins.

Heh, that hadn’t occurred to me. Let’s just say that it seems like an unlikely scenario, for one reason or another. . .

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\
**Post date:** [August 11, 2009, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/7 "2009-08-11T00:40:39Z")

</div>

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> Heh, that hadn’t occurred to me. Let’s just say that it seems like an unlikely scenario, for one reason or another. . .

Yeah, it would be a really fine line to try to give enough money away without giving too much away.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Stringer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Stringer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringer)\
**Post date:** [August 11, 2009, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/8 "2009-08-11T02:41:35Z")

</div>

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> **Stringer** , note that the maximum wager is $400. All bets over the limit will be rounded down to that amount. By my count, you have $1,000 remaining with which to gamble (though you need not put it as risk, since you’ve nonetheless reached the $4,000 minimum).

Apologies! I should have read more carefully. Please add this second bid sheet to my tally:

#18) Who will win the NFC West?  
$200 - St. Louis +1100

#23) Which team will win the most regular season games?  
$400 - New England +195

#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
$400 - Oakland +100

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\
**Post date:** [August 11, 2009, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/9 "2009-08-11T04:31:38Z")

</div>

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> 2008 Champion: **Hamlet**

No sweeter words.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> – [Vigorish](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish) is factored into the odds; in part, this is because I want to track my “winnings” as the bookmaker. Keep in mind that the severity of the vigorish will fluctuate from question to question.

Up until today, I had no idea the etymology of “vig”. I’ve always paid it, I always called it vig, but never did I know the basis of the word. Learn something new every day.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #1) Which conference will have a better record in inter-conference games?  
> AFC -185  
> NFC +155

$100 on the NFC.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #2) Which division will have the best cumulative record?  
> NFC East +300  
> AFC South +300  
> AFC East +575  
> AFC North +625  
> NFC South +625  
> NFC North +810  
> NFC West +3700  
> AFC West +3900

I can’t pass up the +810. $100 on the NFC North.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #6) Name four teams that will win their division (all four must be correct). +160

Patriots, Chargers, Seahawks, Steelers. $200

> [@Varlosz](#):
>
> #7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?  
> Yes -330  
> No +250

Hell yeah. $330.

> [@Varlosz](#):
>
> #11) Who will win the AFC East?  
> New England -450  
> New York Jets +800  
> Miami +800  
> Buffalo +900

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. $100.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #14) Who will win the AFC West?  
> San Diego -350  
> Denver +450  
> Kansas City +800  
> Oakland +1000

Denver. $100.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #16) Who will win the NFC North?  
> Minnesota +160  
> Chicago +170  
> Green Bay +220  
> Detroit +1400

Packers. (HHHHOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMEEEERRRRRR!!!) $200.

[QUOTE=VArlosZ]  
#17 Who will win the NFC South?  
New Orleans +190  
Atlanta +220  
Carolina +230  
Tampa Bay +500  
[/quote]  
Carolina. $200.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #18) Who will win the NFC West?  
> Arizona +140  
> Seattle +210  
> San Francisco +240  
> St. Louis +1100

St. Louis. I like the odds. $100.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?  
> Drew Brees +225  
> Tom Brady +600  
> Kurt Warner +700  
> Peyton Manning +700  
> Aaron Rodgers +1400  
> Phillip Rivers +1400  
> Tony Romo +1600  
> Matt Ryan +1800  
> Eli Manning +4000  
> Matt Hasselbeck +5000  
> Matt Cassell +5000  
> Any Other +250

Brady. $100.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
> Adrian Peterson +225  
> Michael Turner +450  
> DeAngelo Williams +800  
> Clinton Portis +1200  
> LaDanian Tomlinson +1400  
> Steve Slaton +1400  
> Maurice Jones-Drew +1500  
> Chris Johnson +1600  
> Brandon Jacobs +2000  
> Matt Forte +2500  
> Ronnie Brown +3500  
> Marion Barber +3500  
> Derrick Ward +5000  
> Joseph Addai +6000  
> Any Other +150

MJD. $100.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
> Andre Johnson +500  
> Larry Fitzgerald +600  
> Reggie Wayne +700  
> Steve Smith +700  
> Randy Moss +800  
> Calvin Johnson +1000  
> Greg Jennings +1400  
> Marques Colston +1600  
> Roddy White +1600  
> Dwayne Bowe +1800  
> Wes Welker +2000  
> Braylon Edwards +3000  
> Santonio Holmes +3000  
> Any Other +100

Dwayne Bowe $100. Megatron $100.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
> Detroit +150  
> Oakland +250  
> St. Louis +300  
> Kansas City +300  
> San Francisco +375  
> Cleveland +375  
> Tampa Bay +500  
> Denver +500  
> Cincinnati +600  
> New York Jets +600  
> Buffalo +700  
> Houston +825  
> Seattle +850  
> Jacksonville +1000  
> Any Other -110

Raiders. $200. Other. $220.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
> Detroit -130  
> Oakland +100

Lions. $260.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #29) Which team will win more regular season games?  
> Pittsburgh -2, -110  
> Arizona +2, -120

Pittsburgh. $220.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #30) Which team will win more regular season games?  
> Chicago -2, -135  
> Denver +2, +105

Denver +2. $400.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?  
> Knowshon Moreno +150  
> Chris Wells +250  
> Donald Brown +500  
> Mark Sanchez +700  
> Matthew Stafford +800  
> Percy Harvin +1000  
> LeSean McCoy +1200  
> Michael Crabtree +1300  
> Shonn Green +1400  
> Josh Freeman +1400  
> Jeremy Macklin +1800  
> Hakeem Nicks +1800  
> Darrius Heyward-Bay +1800  
> Andre Brown +2000  
> Brian Robiskie +2000  
> Kenny Britt +2000  
> Mike Thomas +2500  
> Pat White +3000  
> Mohamed Massaquoi +3000  
> Brandon Pettigrew +3000  
> Any Other +500

Can I bet “anyone but Josh Freeman”? Give me Maclin for $100.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #37) Who will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year?  
> Aaron Curry +500  
> Tyson Jackson +700  
> B.J. Raji +700  
> Rey Maualuga +1000  
> Brian Arakpo +1000  
> Peria Jerry +1000  
> Robert Ayers +1200  
> Brian Cushing +1200  
> Clay Matthews +1200  
> Larry English +1500  
> Aaron Maybin +1500  
> Everette Brown +1600  
> David Verkune +2000  
> Roy Miller +2000  
> Sen’Derrick Marks +2000  
> Ron Brace +2500  
> Evander Hood +2500  
> Malcolm Jenkins +2500  
> Vontae Davis +3000  
> Clint Sintim +3500  
> Any Other +400

I’ll take Sintim as a longshot. $100

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #39) Which Defense/Special Teams will score the most fantasy points, given the settings detailed in this post (it’s pretty close to standard)?  
> Pittsburgh +500  
> NY Giants +550  
> Baltimore +600  
> Tennessee +700  
> Philadelphia +720  
> Minnesota +740  
> Dallas +775  
> Chicago +800  
> Any Other +130

Give me other. $300.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?  
> New England -2.5, -115  
> Indianapolis +2.5, -115

At Indy. Gimme the Colts. $200.

> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> #42) What will be the average amount of “money” lost by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?  
> OVER $1000 -120  
> UNDER $1000 -120

Over $1000. $120.

The way I total it, I’m currently betting $3950. I’m saving that extra $50 to take my wife out to dinner. Although if the odds are good, I’ll take her to McDonalds and put the other $40 on the Packers. But I’m sick like that.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 11, 2009, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/10 "2009-08-11T05:05:32Z")

</div>

Ha! We could make this an annual tradition, **Champ**. You made the same exact mistake (invalid bet sizes) in [last year’s contest](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10121585#post10121585). In fact, I added a clarifier about this in Rule 1 specifically because of your bet sheet last year. Remember, all wagers (i.e. the amount of money put at risk) must be in multiples of $100, so your bets on Questions 7, 24, 28, 29, and 42 will be rounded \*\*down \*\*to the nearest hundred.

By my count you’ve now wagered $3,800. Be sure to risk at least at least $200 more, because the minimum total amount risked is $4,000 this year. If you don’t risk the $200, it will simply be removed from your bankroll.  
Aside: the rule about bets being in multiples of $100 is there to make it easier for me to calculate the results at the end of the year. Now, the particular way in which you’ve broken the rules would actually make it easier still for me to do the results (wouldn’t have to get out the calculator or anything). We’re locked into the rules from the OP for this year’s contest, but theoretically I could modify them to accommodate your bet sheets for next year. I doubt it’ll happen, however, because trying to explain in the Rules exactly what the relationship between your bet size and the odds should be when you’re laying (but not getting) odds would confuse the hell out of most people.

OTOH, maybe I’ll get bored at some point between now and then and build a spreadsheet to calculate results, in which case contestants could wager odd amounts that were specific to fractions of a penny without making my job any harder.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\
**Post date:** [August 11, 2009, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/11 "2009-08-11T07:02:52Z")

</div>

I’m in again this year. But like last, I’ll wait until closer to Week 1.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\
**Post date:** [August 11, 2009, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/12 "2009-08-11T13:54:26Z")

</div>

I decided to wait until closer to the start of last season to participate and then I went and totally forgot. We’ll see if I can avoid that fate this year.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2009, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/13 "2009-08-13T18:56:37Z")

</div>

ok, I can’t stay away for long  
#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?  
$100 - AFC West +265  
$100 - NFC West +290  
#17 Who will win the NFC South?  
$100 - Carolina +230  
#24) Which team will win the **fewest** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
$100 - St. Louis +300

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?  
$100 - Mark Sanchez +700  
$100 - Matthew Stafford +800  
$2400 bet so far

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2009, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/14 "2009-08-15T13:00:44Z")

</div>

**ODDS REVISION #1 – 8/15, 9:01 AM EDT**

No major changes, just a bunch of tweaks given the action to date, and Steven Jackson has been added to question #20 as per **Stringer** ’s (implied) request. All questions whose odds have been modified are marked with an asterisk.  
#1) Which conference will have a better record in inter-conference games?  
AFC -185  
NFC +155

#2) Which division will have the best cumulative record?  
NFC East +300  
AFC South +300  
AFC East +575  
AFC North +625  
NFC South +625  
NFC North +810  
NFC West +3700  
AFC West +3900

#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?  
AFC West +265  
NFC West +290  
NFC North +525  
AFC North +950  
NFC South + 1050  
AFC East +1200  
AFC South +2500  
NFC East +2500

#4) Name **six** teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130

#5) Name **three** teams that will win their division (all three must be correct). -120

#6) Name **four** teams that will win their division (all four must be correct). +160

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?  
Yes -330  
No +250

#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per [goldsheet.com](http://www.goldsheet.com/08nflog.php))?  
OVER 17.25 -120  
UNDER 17.25 -110

#9) Will the average number of total points scored in 2009 regular season games be OVER or UNDER 44.06 (i.e., last year’s average)?  
OVER 44.06 -105  
UNDER 44.06 -125

#10) Will the number of **TD Passes** thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?  
OVER 0.5 -105  
UNDER 0.5 -135

#11) Who will win the AFC East?  
New England -450  
New York Jets +800  
Miami +800  
Buffalo +900

#12) Who will win the AFC North?  
Pittsburgh -250  
Baltimore +300  
Cincinnati +900  
Cleveland +1200

#13) Who will win the AFC South?  
Indianapolis +140  
Tennessee +250  
Houston +350  
Jacksonville +400

#14) Who will win the AFC West?  
San Diego -350  
Denver +450  
Kansas City +800  
Oakland +1000

#15) Who will win the NFC East?  
New York Giants +165  
Philadelphia +200  
Dallas +275  
Washington +600

\*#16) Who will win the NFC North?  
Minnesota +160  
Chicago +160  
Green Bay +220  
Detroit +1700

\*#17 Who will win the NFC South?  
New Orleans +200  
Carolina +215  
Atlanta +225  
Tampa Bay +520

#18) Who will win the NFC West?  
Arizona +140  
Seattle +210  
San Francisco +240  
St. Louis +1100

#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?  
Drew Brees +225  
Tom Brady +600  
Kurt Warner +700  
Peyton Manning +700  
Aaron Rodgers +1400  
Phillip Rivers +1400  
Tony Romo +1600  
Matt Ryan +1800  
Eli Manning +4000  
Matt Hasselbeck +5000  
Matt Cassell +5000  
Any Other +250

\*#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
Adrian Peterson +210  
Michael Turner +460  
DeAngelo Williams +815  
Clinton Portis +1220  
LaDanian Tomlinson +1420  
Steve Slaton +1420  
Maurice Jones-Drew +1520  
Chris Johnson +1600  
**Steven Jackson +1600**  
Brandon Jacobs +2000  
Matt Forte +2500  
Ronnie Brown +3500  
Marion Barber +3500  
Derrick Ward +5000  
Joseph Addai +6000  
Any Other +155

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
Andre Johnson +500  
Larry Fitzgerald +600  
Reggie Wayne +700  
Steve Smith +700  
Randy Moss +800  
Calvin Johnson +1000  
Greg Jennings +1400  
Marques Colston +1600  
Roddy White +1600  
Dwayne Bowe +1800  
Wes Welker +2000  
Braylon Edwards +3000  
Santonio Holmes +3000  
Any Other +100

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?  
DeMarcus Ware +500  
Joey Porter +600  
John Abraham +700  
James Harrison +900  
Jared Allen +900  
Julius Peppers +900  
Justin Tuck +900  
Mario Williams +900  
Osi Umenyiora +900  
Shawne Merriman +1200  
Dwight Freeney +1400  
Trent Cole +1800  
Mathias Kiwanuka +3000  
Terrell Suggs +3000  
Any Other -200

#23) Which team will win the **most** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
New England +195  
Pittsburgh +240  
Indianapolis +270  
New York Giants +450  
San Diego +500  
Philadelphia +500  
Tennessee +600  
Dallas +600  
Minnesota +680  
Chicago +750  
Arizona +800  
Jacksonville +1000  
Any Other +100

\*#24) Which team will win the **fewest** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
Detroit +170  
Oakland +230  
St. Louis +300  
Kansas City +300  
San Francisco +355  
Cleveland +375  
Tampa Bay +500  
Denver +500  
Cincinnati +600  
New York Jets +600  
Buffalo +675  
Houston +825  
Seattle +850  
Jacksonville +1000  
Any Other -110

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?  
16 +2500  
15 +800  
14 +500  
13 +450  
12 +450  
11 +450  
10 +600  
9 +1000  
8 +1800  
\< 8 +1500

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
New England -125  
New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
Philadelphia -115  
New York Giants -115

\*#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
Detroit -125  
Oakland -105

#29) Which team will win more regular season games?  
Pittsburgh -2, -110  
Arizona +2, -120

\*#30) Which team will win more regular season games?  
Chicago -2, -130  
Denver +2, +100

#31) Which team will win more regular season games?  
New England -7, -125  
Detroit +7, -110

\*#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Peyton Manning -6.5, -120  
Eli Manning +6.5, -110

\*#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Tom Brady -5.5, -120  
Matt Cassel +5.5, -110

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Drew Brees -2.5, -115  
Philip Rivers +2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?  
Philip Rivers -195  
Eli Manning +480  
Ben Roethlisberger +515  
Matt Schaub +950  
Any Other +10000

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?  
Knowshon Moreno +150  
Chris Wells +250  
Donald Brown +500  
Mark Sanchez +700  
Matthew Stafford +800  
Percy Harvin +1000  
LeSean McCoy +1200  
Michael Crabtree +1300  
Shonn Green +1400  
Josh Freeman +1400  
Jeremy Macklin +1800  
Hakeem Nicks +1800  
Darrius Heyward-Bay +1800  
Andre Brown +2000  
Brian Robiskie +2000  
Kenny Britt +2000  
Mike Thomas +2500  
Pat White +3000  
Mohamed Massaquoi +3000  
Brandon Pettigrew +3000  
Any Other +500

#37) Who will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year?  
Aaron Curry +500  
Tyson Jackson +700  
B.J. Raji +700  
Rey Maualuga +1000  
Brian Arakpo +1000  
Peria Jerry +1000  
Robert Ayers +1200  
Brian Cushing +1200  
Clay Matthews +1200  
Larry English +1500  
Aaron Maybin +1500  
Everette Brown +1600  
David Verkune +2000  
Roy Miller +2000  
Sen’Derrick Marks +2000  
Ron Brace +2500  
Evander Hood +2500  
Malcolm Jenkins +2500  
Vontae Davis +3000  
Clint Sintim +3500  
Any Other +400

#38) Will the player who scores the most total fantasy points be a QB, RB, or WR, given the following settings: _25/10/10, 0.5 points per reception, Passing TD = 4 points, Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6 points, fumbles lost/interceptions = -2 points_?  
Quarterback -200  
Running Back +150  
Wide Receiver +1700

\*#39) Which Defense/Special Teams will score the most fantasy points, given the settings detailed in [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11427421&postcount=39) (it’s pretty close to standard)?  
Pittsburgh +510  
NY Giants +560  
Baltimore +615  
Tennessee +720  
Philadelphia +725  
Minnesota +750  
Dallas +790  
Chicago +815  
Any Other +120

\*#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?  
Tennessee +4.5, -125  
Pittsburgh -4.5, -105

\*#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?  
New England -2.5, -105  
Indianapolis +2.5, -125

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” **lost** by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?  
OVER $1000 -120  
UNDER $1000 -120

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2009, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/15 "2009-08-15T13:07:22Z")

</div>

Wow, I’ve never seen that before. There was some database error wackiness and the post didn’t go through, so I tried sending it through a second time, but it told me that it was a duplicate post. So I check it out and, sure enough, my post has through in the _thread_, but the \*forum \*didn’t recognize it. As I type this, the thread hasn’t been bumped to Page 1, it says that there are 12 responses, and Taber’s is listed as being the most recent response. Crazy damn board.

So, anyway, \>bump\<.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [August 19, 2009, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/16 "2009-08-19T10:58:48Z")

</div>

**ODDS REVISION #2 – 8/19, 6:59 AM EDT**

Just updating the odds to reflect the Brett Favre signing. I’ve also added Favre as a longshot option for Question #19, and added a new question at the end (interestingly, I added the same exact question last year around this time). All questions whose odds have been modified since the last update are marked with an asterisk.  
#1) Which conference will have a better record in inter-conference games?  
AFC -185  
NFC +155

- #2) Which division will have the best cumulative record?  
NFC East +300  
AFC South +300  
AFC East +580  
AFC North +630  
NFC South +630  
NFC North +750  
NFC West +3700  
AFC West +3900

\*#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?  
AFC West +250  
NFC West +270  
NFC North +575  
AFC North +925  
NFC South + 1030  
AFC East +1175  
AFC South +2500  
NFC East +2500

#4) Name **six** teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130

#5) Name **three** teams that will win their division (all three must be correct). -120

#6) Name **four** teams that will win their division (all four must be correct). +160

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?  
Yes -330  
No +250

#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per [goldsheet.com](http://www.goldsheet.com/08nflog.php))?  
OVER 17.25 -120  
UNDER 17.25 -110

#9) Will the average number of total points scored in 2009 regular season games be OVER or UNDER 44.06 (i.e., last year’s average)?  
OVER 44.06 -105  
UNDER 44.06 -125

#10) Will the number of **TD Passes** thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?  
OVER 0.5 -105  
UNDER 0.5 -135

#11) Who will win the AFC East?  
New England -450  
New York Jets +800  
Miami +800  
Buffalo +900

#12) Who will win the AFC North?  
Pittsburgh -250  
Baltimore +300  
Cincinnati +900  
Cleveland +1200

#13) Who will win the AFC South?  
Indianapolis +140  
Tennessee +250  
Houston +350  
Jacksonville +400

#14) Who will win the AFC West?  
San Diego -350  
Denver +450  
Kansas City +800  
Oakland +1000

#15) Who will win the NFC East?  
New York Giants +165  
Philadelphia +200  
Dallas +275  
Washington +600

\*#16) Who will win the NFC North?  
Minnesota +150  
Chicago +165  
Green Bay +230  
Detroit +1800

#17 Who will win the NFC South?  
New Orleans +200  
Carolina +215  
Atlanta +225  
Tampa Bay +520

#18) Who will win the NFC West?  
Arizona +140  
Seattle +210  
San Francisco +240  
St. Louis +1100

\*#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?  
Drew Brees +225  
Tom Brady +600  
Kurt Warner +700  
Peyton Manning +700  
Aaron Rodgers +1400  
Phillip Rivers +1400  
Tony Romo +1600  
Matt Ryan +1800  
Eli Manning +4000  
**Brett Favre +4500**  
Matt Hasselbeck +5000  
Matt Cassell +5000  
Any Other +250

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
Adrian Peterson +210  
Michael Turner +460  
DeAngelo Williams +815  
Clinton Portis +1220  
LaDanian Tomlinson +1420  
Steve Slaton +1420  
Maurice Jones-Drew +1520  
Chris Johnson +1600  
Steven Jackson +1600  
Brandon Jacobs +2000  
Matt Forte +2500  
Ronnie Brown +3500  
Marion Barber +3500  
Derrick Ward +5000  
Joseph Addai +6000  
Any Other +155

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
Andre Johnson +500  
Larry Fitzgerald +600  
Reggie Wayne +700  
Steve Smith +700  
Randy Moss +800  
Calvin Johnson +1000  
Greg Jennings +1400  
Marques Colston +1600  
Roddy White +1600  
Dwayne Bowe +1800  
Wes Welker +2000  
Braylon Edwards +3000  
Santonio Holmes +3000  
Any Other +100

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?  
DeMarcus Ware +500  
Joey Porter +600  
John Abraham +700  
James Harrison +900  
Jared Allen +900  
Julius Peppers +900  
Justin Tuck +900  
Mario Williams +900  
Osi Umenyiora +900  
Shawne Merriman +1200  
Dwight Freeney +1400  
Trent Cole +1800  
Mathias Kiwanuka +3000  
Terrell Suggs +3000  
Any Other -200

\*#23) Which team will win the **most** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
New England +195  
Pittsburgh +240  
Indianapolis +270  
New York Giants +450  
San Diego +500  
Philadelphia +500  
Tennessee +600  
Dallas +600  
Minnesota +600  
Chicago +750  
Arizona +800  
Jacksonville +1000  
Any Other +100

#24) Which team will win the **fewest** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
Detroit +170  
Oakland +230  
St. Louis +300  
Kansas City +300  
San Francisco +355  
Cleveland +375  
Tampa Bay +500  
Denver +500  
Cincinnati +600  
New York Jets +600  
Buffalo +675  
Houston +825  
Seattle +850  
Jacksonville +1000  
Any Other -110

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?  
16 +2500  
15 +800  
14 +500  
13 +450  
12 +450  
11 +450  
10 +600  
9 +1000  
8 +1800  
\< 8 +1500

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
New England -125  
New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
Philadelphia -115  
New York Giants -115

#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
Detroit -125  
Oakland -105

#29) Which team will win more regular season games?  
Pittsburgh -2, -110  
Arizona +2, -120

#30) Which team will win more regular season games?  
Chicago -2, -130  
Denver +2, +100

#31) Which team will win more regular season games?  
New England -7, -125  
Detroit +7, -110

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Peyton Manning -6.5, -120  
Eli Manning +6.5, -110

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Tom Brady -5.5, -120  
Matt Cassel +5.5, -110

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Drew Brees -2.5, -115  
Philip Rivers +2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?  
Philip Rivers -195  
Eli Manning +480  
Ben Roethlisberger +515  
Matt Schaub +950  
Any Other +10000

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?  
Knowshon Moreno +150  
Chris Wells +250  
Donald Brown +500  
Mark Sanchez +700  
Matthew Stafford +800  
Percy Harvin +1000  
LeSean McCoy +1200  
Michael Crabtree +1300  
Shonn Green +1400  
Josh Freeman +1400  
Jeremy Macklin +1800  
Hakeem Nicks +1800  
Darrius Heyward-Bay +1800  
Andre Brown +2000  
Brian Robiskie +2000  
Kenny Britt +2000  
Mike Thomas +2500  
Pat White +3000  
Mohamed Massaquoi +3000  
Brandon Pettigrew +3000  
Any Other +500

#37) Who will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year?  
Aaron Curry +500  
Tyson Jackson +700  
B.J. Raji +700  
Rey Maualuga +1000  
Brian Arakpo +1000  
Peria Jerry +1000  
Robert Ayers +1200  
Brian Cushing +1200  
Clay Matthews +1200  
Larry English +1500  
Aaron Maybin +1500  
Everette Brown +1600  
David Verkune +2000  
Roy Miller +2000  
Sen’Derrick Marks +2000  
Ron Brace +2500  
Evander Hood +2500  
Malcolm Jenkins +2500  
Vontae Davis +3000  
Clint Sintim +3500  
Any Other +400

#38) Will the player who scores the most total fantasy points be a QB, RB, or WR, given the following settings: _25/10/10, 0.5 points per reception, Passing TD = 4 points, Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6 points, fumbles lost/interceptions = -2 points_?  
Quarterback -200  
Running Back +150  
Wide Receiver +1700

#39) Which Defense/Special Teams will score the most fantasy points, given the settings detailed in [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11427421&postcount=39) (it’s pretty close to standard)?  
Pittsburgh +510  
NY Giants +560  
Baltimore +615  
Tennessee +720  
Philadelphia +725  
Minnesota +750  
Dallas +790  
Chicago +815  
Any Other +120

#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?  
Tennessee +4.5, -125  
Pittsburgh -4.5, -105

#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?  
New England -2.5, -105  
Indianapolis +2.5, -125

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” **lost** by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?  
OVER $1000 -120  
UNDER $1000 -120

\ ***#43 Which Quarterback will throw for more yards?**  
Aaron Rodgers -400  
Brett Favre +300

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\
**Post date:** [August 27, 2009, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/17 "2009-08-27T16:28:44Z")

</div>

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?  
$400-Yes -330  
#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per [goldsheet.com](http://www.goldsheet.com/08nflog.php))?  
$400-OVER 17.25 -120

#11) Who will win the AFC East?

$400-Miami +800

#14) Who will win the AFC West?

$400-Oakland +1000

#18) Who will win the NFC West?

$400-St. Louis +1100

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
$400-Steven Jackson +1600

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?

$400-Mathias Kiwanuka +3000  
#24) Which team will win the **fewest** regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
$400-Detroit +170  
#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?

$400-8 +1800

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?

$400-Pat White +3000

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\
**Post date:** [September 1, 2009, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/18 "2009-09-01T18:00:57Z")

</div>

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130  
Oakland, Detroit, Jets, San Fran, Cleveland, Denver  
Wager $200

#5) Name three teams that will win their division (all three must be correct).  
Chicago, Denver, New England  
Wager $200

#11) Who will win the AFC East?  
New England -450  
Wager $300

#14) Who will win the AFC West?  
San Diego -350  
Wager $300

#16) Who will win the NFC North?  
Chicago +170  
Wager $100

#18) Who will win the NFC West?  
Seattle +210  
Wager $100

\*#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?  
Drew Brees +225  
Tom Brady +600  
Peyton Manning +700  
Wager $100 each

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?  
Adrian Peterson +210  
Maurice Jones-Drew +1520  
Wager $100 each

Matt Forte +2500  
Wager $200

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
Andre Johnson +500  
Larry Fitzgerald +600  
Randy Moss +800  
Wager $100 each

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?  
Shawne Merriman +1200  
Wager $100 each

#23) Which team will win the most regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
San Diego +500  
Chicago +750  
Jacksonville +1000  
Wager $200 each

#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)  
San Francisco +375  
Denver +500  
New York Jets +600  
Buffalo +700  
Wager $200 each

#30) Which team will win more regular season games?  
Chicago -2, -130  
Wager $500

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Peyton Manning -6.5, -120  
Wager $100

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?  
Tom Brady -5.5, -120  
Wager $200

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?  
Mark Sanchez +700  
LeSean McCoy +1200  
Pat White +3000  
Wager $100 each

\*#43 Which Quarterback will throw for more yards?  
Aaron Rodgers -400  
Wager $200

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\
**Post date:** [September 1, 2009, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/19 "2009-09-01T22:20:14Z")

</div>

Bet sheet #3

\*#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?  
$300 - AFC West +250

#10) Will the number of **TD Passes** thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?  
$100 - UNDER 0.5 -135  
#14) Who will win the AFC West?  
$400 - San Diego -350

\*#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?  
$100 -Tom Brady +600  
#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?  
$100 - Randy Moss +800

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?  
$200 - Philadelphia -115  
#29) Which team will win more regular season games?  
$400 - Arizona +2, -120

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\
**Post date:** [September 9, 2009, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871/20 "2009-09-09T05:47:10Z")

</div>

Bump. Deadline is kickoff on Thursday night.

[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2009-nfl-prop-bet-extravaganza/505871.md?page=2)