# 2011: Economic growth to hit 3-4%! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 30, 2010, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890 "2010-12-30T23:38:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![HRoark43](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/bc8723/32.png) [@HRoark43](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HRoark43)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2010, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/1 "2010-12-30T23:38:19Z")
[http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Who-Will-Struggle-in-usnews-1712944905.html?x=0](http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Who-Will-Struggle-in-usnews-1712944905.html?x=0) The U.S. just had a near all-time record shopping season and they’re looking at the best growth in 10 years. All this, and consumers are using cash now more than ever, so there won’t be another debt bubble behind this new economic growth. Isn’t it time the U.S. cut more taxes and stopped the expanding welfare rolls and unemployment extensions? They have an exploding federal deficit and this is going to weigh very heavily on the value of the US Dollar - think, higher gasoline prices. In addition, extended unemployment benefits mean higher unemployment insurance premium (think: taxes) on employers… which will only serve to slow down hiring. I propose they not only stop the extensions but also establish a rollback in unemployment insurance rates to spur hiring; plus put an immediate freeze on new welfare recipients. Aren’t there enough churches and charities for those who lack the skills to earn a living? They could also eliminate the education budget in all 50 states and privatize the system, but I doubt they’d ever amass the courage to do that. America needs to cut the dead weight and focus on letting productive people produce, or else they’re going to be crushed by all these welfare and welfare-equivalent payments and debt. ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/2 "2010-12-31T00:12:14Z")
> [@HRoark43](#): > > The U.S. just had a near all-time record shopping season and they’re looking at the best growth in 10 years. > > {snip} > > Isn’t it time the U.S. cut more taxes and stopped the expanding welfare rolls and unemployment extensions? Your premise seems to be that welfare ect is a bad thing that prohibits growth. But your opening line is that the US had near record growth, while at the same time having welfare benefits. Isn’t it possible that the growth is _because_ of welfare and not in spite of it? Growth of 3-4% sounds great, why not keep taxes the way they are? Might even be room for an increase. > [@HRoark43](#): > > I propose they not only stop the extensions but also establish a rollback in unemployment insurance rates to spur hiring; plus put an immediate freeze on new welfare recipients. Why stop there. I say give this proposal some teeth and require welfare recipients to pay us taxpayers back! With interest! Crazy high interest, like 73%. And use that to pay down the debt. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/3 "2010-12-31T00:15:07Z")
Things are slow. Cut taxes. Things are booming. Cut taxes! When is the time inappropriate to cut taxes? I also like how you manage, like pretty much every other “fiscal conservative” these days, to mention how taxes are too high and how we have an exploding deficit in the same paragraph. Do you know what tax cuts do the the deficits? This isn’t complex stuff. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Amazing\_Hanna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/977dab/32.png) [@The\_Amazing\_Hanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Amazing_Hanna)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/4 "2010-12-31T00:16:22Z")
What country are you from, yourself? I don’t think it’s irrelevant. Do you have friends in the United States? Are they all either lazy welfare queens or hyperactive overachievers? Don’t you think people who’ve worked hard and paid their taxes all their lives deserve a little bit of temporary help in times of need? Is your view based on facts, or stereotypes? The outlook for the economy isn’t really all that rosy. The housing market is as bad as ever - prices fell at double the expected rate in October. Consumer confidence is sliding. Sure, people bought a lot of Christmas gifts this year, but it really is far too early to jump to conclusions about the strength of the recovery. Certainly too early to call for the kind of measures you suggest. Here’s a [New York Times article](http://goo.gl/im7KU) about the rather mixed picture at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/5 "2010-12-31T00:38:00Z")
Yes! Yes, we should stop doing what seems to be working and start doing what didn’t work! Changes tracks drastically midway through a recovery! That couldn’t possibly go wrong! ---
**Author:** ![Susanann](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ab992/32.png) [@Susanann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Susanann)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/6 "2010-12-31T01:33:30Z")
> [@HRoark43](#): > > [http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Who-Will-Struggle-in-usnews-1712944905.html?x=0](http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Who-Will-Struggle-in-usnews-1712944905.html?x=0) > > The U.S. just had a near all-time record shopping season and they’re looking at the best growth in 10 years. All this, and consumers are using cash now more than ever, so there won’t be another debt bubble behind this new economic growth. > > Isn’t it time the U.S. cut more taxes and stopped the expanding welfare rolls and unemployment extensions? They have an exploding federal deficit and this is going to weigh very heavily on the value of the US Dollar - think, higher gasoline prices. In addition, extended unemployment benefits mean higher unemployment insurance premium (think: taxes) on employers… which will only serve to slow down hiring. > > I propose they not only stop the extensions but also establish a rollback in unemployment insurance rates to spur hiring; plus put an immediate freeze on new welfare recipients. Aren’t there enough churches and charities for those who lack the skills to earn a living? They could also eliminate the education budget in all 50 states and privatize the system, but I doubt they’d ever amass the courage to do that. > > America needs to cut the dead weight and focus on letting productive people produce, or else they’re going to be crushed by all these welfare and welfare-equivalent payments and debt. Yes. You are correct on all points. The problem is: that the people who get welfare are allowed to vote, and so they keep voting to get themselves more welfare/unemployment. The United States is going bankrupt with too much spending and too much debt,and the US dollar is going to become worthless. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/7 "2010-12-31T01:36:49Z")
> [@Susanann](#): > > Yes. You are correct on all points. The problem is: that the people who get welfare are allowed to vote, and so they keep voting to get themselves more welfare/unemployment. > > The United States is going bankrupt with too much spending and too much debt,and the US dollar is going to become worthless. What you just made was recitation of ideology, not something that has any relation to reality. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAlecCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SmartAlecCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAlecCat)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/8 "2010-12-31T01:40:31Z")
Welfare is really the least of our problems – look at defense spending and Medicare/medicaid (and the revenue side) if you really want to address the deficit. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/9 "2010-12-31T01:50:18Z")
> [@HRoark43](#): > > [http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Who-Will-Struggle-in-usnews-1712944905.html?x=0](http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Who-Will-Struggle-in-usnews-1712944905.html?x=0) > > The U.S. just had a near all-time record shopping season and they’re looking at the best growth in 10 years. All this, and consumers are using cash now more than ever, so there won’t be another debt bubble behind this new economic growth. > > Isn’t it time the U.S. cut more taxes and stopped the expanding welfare rolls and unemployment extensions? They have an exploding federal deficit and this is going to weigh very heavily on the value of the US Dollar - think, higher gasoline prices. In addition, extended unemployment benefits mean higher unemployment insurance premium (think: taxes) on employers… which will only serve to slow down hiring. > > I propose they not only stop the extensions but also establish a rollback in unemployment insurance rates to spur hiring; plus put an immediate freeze on new welfare recipients. Aren’t there enough churches and charities for those who lack the skills to earn a living? They could also eliminate the education budget in all 50 states and privatize the system, but I doubt they’d ever amass the courage to do that. > > America needs to cut the dead weight and focus on letting productive people produce, or else they’re going to be crushed by all these welfare and welfare-equivalent payments and debt. Wait, how does your dreary, predictable, meaningless RW rant in the last three paragraphs follow from, or have anything at all to do with, the first paragraph, or the link, or the thread title? Sure you didn’t mean to post two threads today, and merge them by accident? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Amazing\_Hanna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/977dab/32.png) [@The\_Amazing\_Hanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Amazing_Hanna)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/10 "2010-12-31T01:57:22Z")
For this discussion to have any point, somebody needs to show that welfare really is a major problem, let alone crushing America. [This graph of welfare payments](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Welfare_Benefits_Payments_Graph.gif) seems to suggest otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/11 "2010-12-31T02:08:30Z")
How is cutting taxes going to achieve wealth redistribution? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/12 "2010-12-31T02:15:48Z")
> [@Susanann](#): > > Yes. You are correct on all points. The problem is: that the people who get welfare are allowed to vote, and so they keep voting to get themselves more welfare/unemployment. :rolleyes: Actually, you’re talking about people who generally **don’t** vote, more’s the pity. I recall a Heinlein quote from _Time Enough for Love:_ “One of the chinks in the armor of any democracy is that when the plebs find out they can vote themselves bread and circuses, they do – until there is no more bread and no more circuses.” Which is worth quoting and remembering only because it is so utterly, astonishingly, completely, and **inexcusably** wrong. What he is describing has never happened in any republic in human history. Much like the [Tytler Cycle,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tytler_cycle#Misquotation_-_Tytler_Cycle) which expresses much the same thought more fully and even more dishonestly. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/13 "2010-12-31T02:21:09Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > How is cutting taxes going to achieve wealth redistribution? Your first mistake there is in assuming that it has to run from the haves to the have-nots to qualify as “redistribution.” 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/14 "2010-12-31T07:54:07Z")
> [@Susanann](#): > > Yes. You are correct on all points. The problem is: that the people who get welfare are allowed to vote, and so they keep voting to get themselves more welfare/unemployment. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :rolleyes: Actually, you’re talking about people who generally **don’t** vote, more’s the pity. See [here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout#Socio-economic_factors) – the lowest income quintile in the U.S. also has the lowest voter turnout, only 36.4%. Furthermore, [only 8% of Americans derive any income at all from welfare or food stamps; only 1.7% derive more than 50% of their income from welfare.](http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_people_in_US_are_on_welfare) Not much of a voting block. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/15 "2010-12-31T07:58:25Z")
> [@HRoark43](#): > > Isn’t it time the U.S. cut more taxes and stopped the expanding welfare rolls and unemployment extensions? They have an exploding federal deficit and this is going to weigh very heavily on the value of the US Dollar… Yeah, cut taxes; that’ll take care of nasty old Mr. Deficit. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/16 "2010-12-31T08:08:14Z")
I would like to challenge anyone to show evidence that the value of the US dollar is declining at an unusually fast rate. The OP likely isn’t coming back, but can anyone who agrees with him back up the hyperinflation assertion with facts that are actually relevant to the past two years? We have unusually low inflation rates according to every source I can find. A dollar goes much further today than it did 5 years ago. The only people arguing that the US dollar is declining are doing so from an ideological position, not anything related to actual evidence. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 8:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/17 "2010-12-31T08:28:10Z")
At this point, inflation, even hyperinflation, is the **best** thing we can hope for, compared to any deflationary alternative. Inflation is something that always happens when an economy is climbing **out** of a recession/depression. (Granted, it can also happen under conditions of continued economic stagnation, as in the 1970s – but only when there is a spike in some real external cost to the national economy, such as the price of imported petroleum, that has secondary effects on the real price of everything else; that’s not rooted in domestic monetary or fiscal policy, nor soluble through such alone.) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/18 "2010-12-31T08:34:51Z")
Deficit? Cut taxes. Neuritis, neuralgia, heartbreak of psoriasis? Cut taxes. Existential angst, that run-down feeling? Inflation, deflation, electile dysfunciton? Cut taxes. If it doesn’t work? Cut taxes harder, faster, more! ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/19 "2010-12-31T08:46:11Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Deficit? Cut taxes. Neuritis, neuralgia, heartbreak of psoriasis? Cut taxes. Existential angst, that run-down feeling? Inflation, deflation, electile dysfunciton? Cut taxes. If it doesn’t work? Cut taxes harder, faster, more! Or tariffs, can’t forget tariffs, all the cool countries are doing it. I heard Germany is cutting taxes AND increasing tariffs. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2010, 8:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890/20 "2010-12-31T08:58:17Z")
> [@emacknight](#): > > Or tariffs, can’t forget tariffs, all the cool countries are doing it. I heard Germany is cutting taxes AND increasing tariffs. :eek: Oooh! Careful! I don’t wanna bum out Germany’s trip, but that’s a dangerous mix unless you cut it with a few cc’s of estate tax and some dirigiste industrial policy! Come on, Germany, we don’t wanna have to find you cold on the bathroom floor like Argentina! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-economic-growth-to-hit-3-4/565890.md?page=2)