# 2011 NFL Draft **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [April 9, 2011, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786 "2011-04-09T17:34:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Death\_of\_Rats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a6a055/32.png) [@Death\_of\_Rats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Death_of_Rats)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2011, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/41 "2011-04-14T15:10:23Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I’ve started following the Rams a bit, and I agree that WR is a huge need (and that it’s likely that both Jones and Green will be gone by then), but I think I like George Selvie and James Hall enough to think that DT is a bigger need than DE. Maybe Liuget for DT, and then grab a WR in the second round. They also need some help in the secondary, but I think grabbing a S would be a reach as would any CB except Peterson and maybe Prince (I’m a bit surprised to see a CB with 0 interceptions this year going in the top 10). > > They’re in a tricky spot for their needs. It would cost to much to go up and grab Jones (although they may try), but there is usually some talent falling around 14, so they might be willing to trade down and garner a few more picks without losing too much talent. They’re going to be in an interesting spot. I agree in liking Hall and Selvie at DE, but I am less sold on Sims or Ah You. My concern with Hall is that he just turned 34 and is entering his 12th season, so he is the man for now but not for the future. I can see the case for going DT and Liguet would be my choice there, my concern with him is that I have seen him all over the palce on mock boards, but the pre-combine judgement based off tape had him in the mid to low 20s. I would be good with them trading down into the 17-21 range for him, if they can find a trade partner. They are in an intersting spot as they have enough holes that they can find good value for some spots at 14 and get good value at others by trading down. At this point, I cannot see it being worth trading up. The best uptrade they could do is to Washington at 10, but if Julio Jones is there I see Washington pulling the trigger on him themselves. They have too many holes that need filled to give up more to go above 10 to get him. I would support trading down a few spots for some extra picks though. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2011, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/42 "2011-04-14T16:10:36Z")
> [@Death\_of\_Rats](#): > > I agree in liking Hall and Selvie at DE, but I am less sold on Sims or Ah You. My concern with Hall is that he just turned 34 and is entering his 12th season, so he is the man for now but not for the future. I can see the case for going DT and Liguet would be my choice there, my concern with him is that I have seen him all over the palce on mock boards, but the pre-combine judgement based off tape had him in the mid to low 20s. I would be good with them trading down into the 17-21 range for him, if they can find a trade partner. As I said, I’ve only been following them for a bit. How risky are they as drafters? I know they were willing to take Bradford despite the injury risk, so they’re not too scared away, so maybe they’d do that again. It looks like Fairley, Bowers, and Quinn may all be falling, for various reasons, lower than earlier projections. Would they take a chance on those guys? I like Spags, could he beat some sense into Fairley? Do they like their doctor’s opinions enough to grab Bowers if they don’t think the knee is an issue. I think the Rams are in a very interesting position. It’ll be fun to see what they do. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2011, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/43 "2011-04-14T21:25:33Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > With the CBA issue, teams can’t trade players for draft picks, but they can apparently still trade draft picks for other draft picks. They can’t sign the rookies they draft. I’m not sure how else the situation affects the draft. You left out the biggest issue of them all. The lack of pre-draft free agency. There’s typically 2 rounds of free agency, teams run out and sign coveted high dollar free agents in March in order to lock down difference makers. Starting QBs, #1 WRs and Peppers-like defensive studs. These guys restack everyone’s draft board, particularly the first and second picks. When you land a Peppers, an Atogwe, a Marshall or a Haynesworth for better or worse it completely flips who you target at those impact spots in the draft. Secondly teams start looking to resign their own RFAs and UFAs to solidify their depth and steal other teams mid-level guys. The Bears are a key example this offseason. They have 3 key guys they need to resign or replace, Anthony Adams, Danieal Manning and Corey Graham. Adams normally would either be signed or lost and the Bears would know whether they need to replace 1 or 2 starting DTs. Manning, with his developing into a starting SS and being an elite KR, might end up getting a unreasonably large contract offer from another team and be gone leaving a gaping hole at SS, or he might be back at a reasonable price. Graham a backup CB and special teams ace will be looking for a starting gig somewhere and the Bears might give him that shot here if the price is right and it might depend on what Manning gets. The Bears are supposedly looking for a OL or a 3-tech DT with their first round pick. If they lose any of these guys you might open the door for another 3 roster holes to be addressed there. Because of this change I think teams will panic in the draft and there will be a lot of trades. Teams normally would go out and sign one high priced FA and resign one pricey guy from their own roster eliminating two needs. The uncertainty will drive GMs crazy and if they can’t even talk to their own FAs they might decide to ensure they draft a guy at a specific position as opposed to going BPA or gambling with a project. They might give up on signing a big name FA or swinging a trade for a Kevin Kolb and take the safe route in drafting a rookie because they don’t want to be painted into a corner and losing their negotiating leverage. > [@astorian](#): > > Peter King seems to think the Panthers are enamored of Cam Newton, and that they’ll take him first overall. > > I didn’t think Newton’s early workouts had gone very well, but he must have impressed SOMEBODY in Carolina. > [@Wilson](#): > > Mel Kiper and Todd McShay at ESPN agree with this. I think I’d steer clear of Newton if it were up to me. > > What’s the knock on Fairley? I seem to remember him being talked up as a potential top pick, now I see him falling down to the 8-10 range. I’m calling bullshit on this one. I think it’s just about the right time for someone in Carolina to start spreading mis-information about their intentions. That all the draftniks are getting the same rumor indicates to me that someone in Carolina when out of their way to plant that info into as many heads as possible. I bet that Carolina is using the “we like Newton” rumor as incentive to encourage trades. If Buffalo likes Newton, as many people suspect, they might start thinking he’ll be gone at 3 and try and move up leaving the Panthers able to take their real first choice at #3. If Arizona loves Gabbert and believes that Newton getting drafted increases the odds that he’s gone at #5 they might move up. This rumor stinks, I think there’s less than a 5% chance he’s a Panther. I’ll be back to rehash my opinions on the Bears and add some additional comments later. ---
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2011, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/44 "2011-04-14T21:43:17Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I’m calling bullshit on this one. I think it’s just about the right time for someone in Carolina to start spreading mis-information about their intentions. That all the draftniks are getting the same rumor indicates to me that someone in Carolina when out of their way to plant that info into as many heads as possible. I bet that Carolina is using the “we like Newton” rumor as incentive to encourage trades. Part of me hopes this is true because they have a lot of needs and no 2nd round pick. If they can stay in the top 10 AND get a 2nd round pick? Hell yeah. On the other hand… they are so glaringly deficient at QB that I can see them just rolling the dice on Newton. I’d be okay with that too. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2011, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/45 "2011-04-14T22:50:17Z")
> [@Southern\_Yankee](#): > > On the other hand… they are so glaringly deficient at QB that I can see them just rolling the dice on Newton. I’d be okay with that too. They’re so glaringly deficient at almost all positions that any QB they get would suffer, just as Moore, Clausen, and St. Pierre did last year. They gave up 50 sacks last year, had a horrid crew of receivers, and had to play from behind because of a poor defense that Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers combined couldn’t have helped them much. Drafting Newton and making him the starter will only ruin his development. He’ll never learn to be an NFL quarterback with a poor line, a shoddy defense, and no playmakers to throw to. Rolling the dice on Newton will not help the team in the long run unless, despite all the evidence I see, he actually grows up, puts in the effort, and works at being a QB, and even if he’s ready to do that, the situation in Carolina is so toxic, I think the same thing that happened to Clausen will happen to Newton. Until there is a modicum of skill around a rookie QB, they aren’t going to be successful. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2011, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/46 "2011-04-14T23:36:29Z")
Can a team skip its pick in a round and then pop up and pick later in the same round whenever they want to without any penalty? Essentially butting in on another team’s pick? ---
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2011, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/47 "2011-04-14T23:57:52Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > They’re so glaringly deficient at almost all positions that any QB they get would suffer, just as Moore, Clausen, and St. Pierre did last year. They gave up 50 sacks last year, had a horrid crew of receivers, and had to play from behind because of a poor defense that Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers combined couldn’t have helped them much. > > Drafting Newton and making him the starter will only ruin his development. He’ll never learn to be an NFL quarterback with a poor line, a shoddy defense, and no playmakers to throw to. Rolling the dice on Newton will not help the team in the long run unless, despite all the evidence I see, he actually grows up, puts in the effort, and works at being a QB, and even if he’s ready to do that, the situation in Carolina is so toxic, I think the same thing that happened to Clausen will happen to Newton. Until there is a modicum of skill around a rookie QB, they aren’t going to be successful. Yeah, I have to disagree. They have more talent then you give them credit for. They have two very good RBs. Steve Smith is still a good WR. The two young WRs, Lafell and Gettis, show promise, but they could use a burner. The O line was a strength just a year ago. The Otah injury situation is concerning, and if doesn’t come back they are thin, but not terrible. They are strong at LB, with Beason, T. Davis (as long as he’s as healthy as reports say), James Anderson and Connor. They definitely need help at QB, DT, DL, and WR. One player is not going to make them a great team, and I’m not convinced that Newton is a franchise guy, so I’d rather see them fill a few holes. But they aren’t toxic in the least. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/48 "2011-04-15T00:01:16Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Drafting Newton and making him the starter will only ruin his development. He’ll never learn to be an NFL quarterback with a poor line, a shoddy defense, and no playmakers to throw to. Rolling the dice on Newton will not help the team in the long run unless, despite all the evidence I see, he actually grows up, puts in the effort, and works at being a QB, and even if he’s ready to do that, the situation in Carolina is so toxic, I think the same thing that happened to Clausen will happen to Newton. Until there is a modicum of skill around a rookie QB, they aren’t going to be successful. But couldn’t you say the same thing about almost any Quarterback taken in the first few picks? It’s pretty rare that a QB who’s drafted so high steps into anything other than (what had been) a horrible situation, and yet plenty of them turn into good players sooner or later (and often the situation turns out not to have been so awful after all, or they’re able to turn it around surprisingly quickly). I think you’re right that no QB they could draft would help them much next year – and, regardless, Newton smells like Bust City to me – but if you have nothing at QB and you have the opportunity to draft one that you really like, you probably should take it, all things being equal; it could be years before you get another such chance. > [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Can a team skip its pick in a round and then pop up and pick later in the same round whenever they want to without any penalty? Essentially butting in on another team’s pick? Sure, but once they pass on their pick the draft starts to move super fast, since every team is aware that they only have the next pick if they get to the podium before the team that passed. Happened with Minnesota a few years back. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/49 "2011-04-15T00:07:08Z")
I am envisioning two draft selection card carriers tackling each other on their way to hand their selection to Goodell first should such a scenario occur this season. The reason I asked is because I am seeing a couple articles (Jason La Canfora) that say the Bengals should do exactly this if whom they really want is off the board at #4. Seems to me this idea gets brought up year after year and doesn’t ever really happen, the Vikings in 2003 (??) aside. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/50 "2011-04-15T00:38:29Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > But couldn’t you say the same thing about almost any Quarterback taken in the first few picks? Probably, but QB’s are much more successful if they have a solid team around them. The Rams had taken Jason Smith at #2 the year before, had signed free agent Jason Brown the year before that, and took Roger Saffold in the second round. They had Steven Jackson running the ball, and had spent draft picks on Donnie Avery, Mardy Gilyard, Illinois Mike H., and Keenan Burton in the prior drafts, and they had Danny Amendola to help out. There were pieces around him that helped his transition into the NFL. Mark Sanchez, who in my estimation isn’t a great QB at all, was successful because he had a great O Line, a strong running game, and a defense that took the pressure off. Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan all went to teams that had solid O lines, good running games, and decent enough defenses to make it much easier. Then look at a guy like Matt Stafford, who’s been injured so often because he can’t get anybody to protect him, no running game, and a porous defense. Or Jimmy Clausen from last year. John Beck, John Skelton both struggled in Arizona. I’m not saying it’s a perfect corrolation, but, by and large, quarterbacks who have some pieces around them, mostly in the O Line, running game, and WR’s, are much more successful than those that don’t. And until a team is confident in it’s surrounding team, I think it’s poor management to use a high draft pick on a QB who is just set up to fail. Now, Carolina was hit hard by injuries on their otherwise OK O Line last year (they went from 13th to 31st in sacks allowed), their defense stunk, they didn’t have much in their WR crew, and they got a ton less yards on the ground then normal. If you think they’re O Line is coming back healthy with all free agents signed, and that they’ll have a solid running game and Steve Smith will finally find another WR opposite him, then by all means, grab your QB of choice. But I think the more successful way to rebuild for the Panthers is to get a gamechanger on defense, which would help take the pressure off of the offense, which had to play from behind almost all year. > [@VarlosZ](#): > > Newton smells like Bust City to me That must be the Eau De AkiliJamarcusAlexVince he’s wearing. I agree, he’s got so many red flags he could … start a red flag store (yeah, that one started well, but I couldn’t pull off a good punchline). > [@VarlosZ](#): > > – but if you have nothing at QB and you have the opportunity to draft one that you really like, you probably should take it, all things being equal; it could be years before you get another such chance. I think the rarity of a rookie QB who can overcome a bad team and start right away speaks volumes of how to rebuild a team. Of course, I’m not a GM, so what do I know. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/51 "2011-04-15T00:49:50Z")
That scenario does get brought up every year, usually in the context of the bloated salaries for top rookies. If you’re a franchise drafting in the top 5 but the player you are targeting is a 10-15 guy you could potentially save a ton of real money and cap money by just letting teams go up and draft ahead of you. The catch obviously being that its a huge gamble and if you misjudge other teams needs or underestimate the value of the play you want it could be a disaster. Additionally it means that you’d better not be wrong about the guy you are waiting for or else you’ll get crushed if he busts. The last catch is that it’d create utter chaos in the negotiating room. You might wait until the 15th pick to take your ideal fit but you can be sure his agent will negotiate that you by rights should pay him that top 5 money that he would have been due had you not gamed the system. Also all those teams that race up to pick will be left to battle over whether they should pay them as the pick in the slot they originally were or if they true drfaft slot is the key. Lots of anger and drama would ensue. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/52 "2011-04-15T00:56:50Z")
> [@Southern\_Yankee](#): > > Yeah, I have to disagree. They have more talent then you give them credit for. They have two very good RBs. I love me some DeAngelo, and Jonathon Stewart is fine, but they had almost 700 yards less last year compared to 2009, and their ypc dropped by an entire half a yard. > [@SouthernYankee](#): > > Steve Smith is still a good WR. The two young WRs, Lafell and Gettis, show promise, but they could use a burner. The O line was a strength just a year ago. The Otah injury situation is concerning, and if doesn’t come back they are thin, but not terrible. They gave up 50 sacks, the worst in the NFL, except for the lowly Bears. In many of the games, they had to pass almost all the time because their defense gave up so many points (7th worst in the NFL). > [@SouthernYankee](#): > > They are strong at LB, with Beason, T. Davis (as long as he’s as healthy as reports say), James Anderson and Connor. They definitely need help at QB, DT, DL, and WR. One player is not going to make them a great team, and I’m not convinced that Newton is a franchise guy, so I’d rather see them fill a few holes. But they aren’t toxic in the least. I didn’t mean toxic as in unsalvageable, but they had an incredibly bad year last year. Their defense gave up too many yards rushing, couldn’t get to the opposing QB, and had trouble keeping their offense in games. I think it’s those areas that need the most work, not necessarily the QB position. When I look at their performance last year, their roster and free agents, the fact that they have a new coaching staff with new coordinators, and, most importantly, the fact that there is a lockout, so rookies won’t be able get up to speed, I don’t think there is a rookie QB alive who could be a success as a starter in Carolina next year. Grabbing a QB with the #1 pick, whether it be Newton or Gabbert, and making them the starter is just setting them up to fail. And I don’t think those QB’s are strong enough to handle being a failure. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/53 "2011-04-15T01:08:35Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I think the rarity of a rookie QB who can overcome a bad team and start right away speaks volumes of how to rebuild a team. Of course, I’m not a GM, so what do I know. I think you’re ignoring the flipside. There have been a littany of teams who made the same argument you made and built from the inside. Those teams drafted lineman and drafted defense and waited for the perfect situation to land a franchise QB and when all the pieces fell into place they found themselves stuck drafting in the early twenties every year and settling for the Cade McNowns, Chad Hennes, Matt Cassels, Kyle Bollers, Tarvaris Jacksons and Kyle Ortons of the world. Finding a great starting QB is really hard. There risk at the top of the draft but you hit at a higher rate than in the late first round and the middle rounds. There’s no right or wrong way, there’s endless examples of both ways working. The key is drafting a QB you love whenever you can, period and never settling for a QB because you’re supposed to. The Packers didn’t need Rodgers when they drafted him but they loved him and seized the opportunity even though the scenarion wasn’t perfect. The Niners did the opposite and settled for Alex Smith because they felt they were supposed to take a QB and they talked themselves into it. The Giants loved Eli Manning and made the move to get him when they had the chance. The Browns settled for Tim Couch because they were supposed to. So, if the Panthers or Bill love Newton and he’s there they have to take him. The situation might not be perfect but you do what it takes later to make it work. If they wait until they have a solid O line and a impact defense they might find themselves settling for a QB when the time comes and that’s defininitely not the way to go. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/54 "2011-04-15T01:22:00Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > So, if the Panthers or Bill love Newton and he’s there they have to take him. I’m not feeling the love for Newton. And, as I said in the other thread, I think next years’ QB class will be much better, with much more potential, than this year. I think the Panthers will be much better served if they draft Dareus, Miller or Peterson, or even Green if they like him, and waiting until next year to grab a QB. To me, that’s a much better plan than taking the huge risk that is Newton, Gabbert, or the rest. But even if they think Newton is a franchise QB, the next question is should they start him. I think the answer is clearly a no, something they should have learned from Clausen last year. So I suppose if you have your heart set on him, draft him, but for the love of God, and for his development, don’t start him until your sure you have a team around him to actually help his development, not hinder it. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/55 "2011-04-15T01:27:41Z")
Forgive all the multiple posts but I’m surfing on my phone tonight and I want to get caught up on the thread and respond to stuff as I read it. > [@DxZero](#): > > **Jules** , a thought. Does anyone know if the CBA agreement allows \*only \* draft picks to be traded? Could the Eagles for instance trade a 3rd + a player to be named later for a 1st rounder? With a gentleman’s agreement in place that the player would be Kolb once the labor issue is settled? > > I know it’d be unlikely to happen, but is there any rule prohibiting the trading of non-draft picks? The NFL has essnetially put the kibosh on this. They said that any teams tampering with locked out players will face staggeringly large penalties and any teams caught making under the table deals will likewise be stomped on. Lots of people have raised this question and the ESPN folks have adressed it, it won’t happen and if it does that team will probably lose its entire 2012 and several millions of dollars in fines. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/56 "2011-04-15T01:34:36Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I think you’re ignoring the flipside. There have been a littany of teams who made the same argument you made and built from the inside. Those teams drafted lineman and drafted defense and waited for the perfect situation to land a franchise QB and when all the pieces fell into place they found themselves stuck drafting in the early twenties every year and settling for the Cade McNowns, Chad Hennes, Matt Cassels, Kyle Bollers, Tarvaris Jacksons and Kyle Ortons of the world. Or Drew Brees (2nd round), Matt Schaub (3rd round), Tom Brady (6th round), Aaron Rodgers (24th pick), and on and on. There are players out there outside the top 10 picks who can be great QB’s too. What helped many of these QB’s to be successful was sitting and learning for a year or two, and being on a team that is relatively solid around them. Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that this debate has been going on decades with no clear winner on either side, so it’s tough to decide which side is right and which is wrong. So I’ll just declare us both right. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/57 "2011-04-15T01:37:16Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > The more I read the more JJ Watt is growing on me as a DL prospect. I think if I were forced to pick a DL, it would go Dareus then Watt, even though he’s listed at 6th or 7th by most people. Quinn, Bowers, Fairley and all them have such high bust potential. > > Watt is sort of odd with his size though - he seems like he’d be a great fit for a weakside 5 technique 3-4 DE. I’m not sure that LDE in a 4-3 is his ideal position. I wonder if they’ve ever tried him at the 3. I guess he could be one of those guys who moves inside during passing downs. > > The upside to Watt being underrated is that if someone falls out of the top 6 like Peterson the Browns may be able to trade down 5-10 spots and still nab him or maybe Julio Jones. If Peterson is there, I’d probably rather just grab him, but the talent levels at slots 7-15 seem pretty level, so it’d be nice to drop back to #12ish and pick up some picks. > > I’m not sure why is Watt isn’t in consideration as one of the top DL… his size, drill numbers, and production match up pretty closely with Mario Williams I think you might be reading some dated stuff. Watt has skyrocketed up draft boards following the Combine and in one of our Pre-Draft threads here we discussed him heavily. Kiper or McShay had him projected going to the Cowboys at 11 IIRC and I’ve seen lots of teams put him with any 3-4 team in the first round looking for a 5 technique. He can’t play the 4-3 DE role, I have seen a couple people speculate on him bulking up and moving to the 3 technique in an upfield scheme, but he doesn’t have the pure pass rushing skills to play upright or come off the edge yet. That said, he’d be an awesome fit on the Bears who could test him at the DT position or in rotation with Peppers as the oppisite DE playing with more run responsibility. He’ll never fall that far of course but that’d be pretty awesome. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/58 "2011-04-15T01:47:07Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Or Drew Brees (2nd round), Matt Schaub (3rd round), Tom Brady (6th round), Aaron Rodgers (24th pick), and on and on. There are players out there outside the top 10 picks who can be great QB’s too. What helped many of these QB’s to be successful was sitting and learning for a year or two, and being on a team that is relatively solid around them. > > Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that this debate has been going on decades with no clear winner on either side, so it’s tough to decide which side is right and which is wrong. So I’ll just declare us both right. Just to be clear. I’m not arguing for drafting a QB at the top of the draft. I’m arguing for drafting a QB wherever you can regardless of circumstance so long as you’re really sure he’s your guy. I contend Brady was just dumb luck, but the other guys are all examples of a team grabbing a guy they loved when the opportunity presented itself. With Shuab and Brees it happened twice. The key is never putting youself in a position where you **need** a QB. If I were an NFL GM I’d hire the best QB scout I could and have him scouring the colleges every year. Any time he loved a guy I’d draft him even if I had Peyton Manning on my team. The position is that important and if you can always be shopping when you aren’t desperate you’ll be more likely to make the right call and no talk yourself into someone. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/59 "2011-04-15T02:02:22Z")
Incidentally, I think the Eagles did a great job of executing my theory. They had McNabb and drafted a kid they thought was great for them in Kolb without a clear idea of when they’d make the change. Then they gambled on Vick. All three guys ended up paying dividends and they’ve apparently settled on Vick as their starter. I bet they draft another QB in this draft anyways and I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if they also added another veteran like Tarvaris Jackson or Vince Young as a reclamation project ala Vick too. If Reid is still there they’ll probably repeat the cycle in 3 years again too, especially when Vick gets hurt and whoever the backup is steps and and succeeds. Supposedly Martz is out beating the bushes for QB prospects. I’m hoping this is a sign that the Bears have found religion on this matter too. They took a shot with Lefevour last year and I hope they add a guy in this draft too who can potentially push Cutler and end up as an asset. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2011, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786/60 "2011-04-15T02:51:55Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > [del]My team is the Green Bay Packers. Your NFL Champion Green Bay Packers. The Green Bay Packers that have now won a record 13 NFL Championships. [/del] > > Packer Needs: > > DE > > With Cullen Jenkins likely pricing himself out of Green Bay (if we ever get back to the season) and Johnny Jolly’s newest arrest, I think finding a great 3-4 DE is very important to the team, even if he’s just a rotational player. I really like Ryan Pickett but he’s getting up there in age, and I have high hopes for Mike Neal, our 2nd round pick from last year. And the project guys like CJ Wilson and Jarius Wynn are getting better; so it’s not a do or die. But I think they need a big, fast DE who can both stop the run, which was a problem last year, and pressure the QB. I would love JJ Watt, but he won’t make it that far in the first round. I also like Jarvis Jenkins, DE, from Clemson if he’s available in the third round. Hopefully the Packers continue to lose DLs. Decay from the middle is the fastest way to ruin a defense. Ironic that the Bears, Packers and Vikings are all gonna be seeing big changes at the DT position. No way Watt is there. There’s next to no chance Watt makes it into the 20s let alone the 30s and if he did I’m pretty confident the Bears, Jets and Steelers would all leap on him. I think the Packers might end up getting Phil Taylor in the first round and hopefully he flames out, but he could be a steal if he can play the 5 technique. He’s got the frame for it. > [@](#): > > OT > > I was stunned with LT Chad Clifton’s year last year. He started out atrociously, but in the last 6 games or so, he came up huge. I thought for sure he was done, but he found some magic. But he is old, on poor knees, and I’m not sure he’s got enough left in the tank. I really like what I’ve seen from Brian Bulaga, who may be his replacement eventually, but you really can’t have too many OT’s. I like Derrick Sherrod if he’s there at 32 (I may be overrating him a touch, but he’s got the quick feet and experience I like), otherwise I like Willie Smith from East Carolina as a late round project guy who has a chance to develop. I’m not really sure what you saw in Bulaga but I love your plan here. Clifton was surprisingly good last year and he seemed to handle Peppers well. Clifton is country strong and I think speedier guyswere tougher for him, Peppers being more of a bull played into his strength. Clifton was useless in the running game though. I hope Clifton hangs it up and you are starting either Bulaga or Sherrod there because Rodgers will get concussed into Never Never Land. Bulaga can’t go backwards well enough to play the left side and Sherrod is a guy I’m desperately praying the Bears don’t take. He’s a big marshmellow with iffy footwork and a crap work ethic. Hell make Chris Williams look like a stud. I really hope you get your wish on this one. > [@](#): > > OLB > > While Zombo, Walton, Brad Jones all had pretty good years (when they were healthy), last year, I want somebody special to pair with Clay Matthews on the outside. It’s not a critical need, but getting to the QB is huge in this league. I kinda hate myself for liking Dontay Moch, a speedy pass rusher from Nevada who would have to transition from DE to OLB. He’s the kind of toy I think Capers could really use. I just hope the Packers don’t luck into Brooks Reed at 32. That’d be bad times. There are a few conversion guys out there and they’ll have the pick of the litter at 32, hopefully they keep looking at OL or DT. Conversion DE/OLB is probably the strongest position in this draft. > [@](#): > > SPEEDY SPARKPLUG CHANGE OF PACE BACK MAYBE LINE UP AS A SLOT RECEIVER WITH KICK RETURN ABILILITES FUN TO WATCH GUY > > Think Darren Sproles, Dexter McCluster, or Stefan Logan. I think the Packers could really use a KR who can offer a change of pace in the backfield too. There is no way I want them to grab one in the first 3 rounds, but I have a man crush on Derrick Locke from Kentucky. Yes, I know he’s a tiny, fairly weak, horrid in pass protection, and a huge injury risk, but he’s damn fun to watch and he’s got amazing speed and pretty good balance. He’d make immediate improvement in the return game, and he has great hands, good vision to be a toy for McCarthy to play with on the offensive side of the ball. The guy that would worry me the most is Jacquizz Rogers. I think he’s the closest thing to Sproles out there and he’s the only undersized guy that I don’t see as a huge liability in protection and can be used around the goalline. No surprisingly I have this same need on my board for the Bears. Hope we land him in the 4th just before you do. > [@](#): > > CB/WR > > Charles Woodson and Donald Driver are getting older and more injury prone and will eventually need to be replaced. Grabbing a few project guys at those positions could always help out in the future. At WR, I think the Packers may lose the frustrating James Jones, but they’ll make an effort to keep Jordy Nelson. In this draft, I really like Vincent Brown from San Diego State as a mid/late round guy. And Ras I Dowling from Virginia might be worth a second rounder if he passes the medical tests and could be a solid addition to the CB corp that is quite good. The WR and CB position is shaky this year and this is another need area where the Bears and Pack intersect. I’ve located a bunch of middle round WRs I like and have found almost no CBs that look good. I’m not even a fan of Jimmy Smith or Amakamura. Ill detail the WRs I’m hoping the Bears look at later but the one guy that I’m sorta salivating over is the kid from UNC, Greg Little I think. I’m not sure where his stock will be come draft day and he’s a big risk but he would have been in the AJ Green/Julio Jones discussion if he’d have played this year. The Bears are going to have to get lucky with a gamble at some point and you can’t always play it safe and this is the position to gamble with. Marvin Austin is another guy many people have projected to the Bears but if I had to pick one Little is the one Id roll the dice with and you might be able to grab him in the 3rd round. In the 2nd its a tougher call but in the 3rd its a no brainer. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2011-nfl-draft/577786.md?page=4)