There’s some kind of comfort in knowing your team is horrible. You can’t make bad draft pics. Just draft the best player available, because, dammit, you need help EVERYWHERE.
Omni,
If you could post the predicted 1st rounder for the Houston Texans from both insiders, and the revised '10 draft grade, I’d be grateful.
My guess, not having seen the mocks, is that Von Miller, Texas A&M will be the selection, and the Texans will make him a 3-4 OLB. I’m guessing the draftniks will be very down on the draft, mainly based on the ineptitude of Kareem Jackson and Ben Tate’s injury. I think, however, this draft may be better than thought, if:
[ul]
[li]Jackson improves, [/li][li]Tate is able to take some of the load off Foster (and allows the Texans to get rid of Ward and Slaton), [/li][li]Earl Mitchell supplants Okoye, [/li][li]Trindon Holliday figures out how to return kicks at this level, and [/li][li]Dorin Dickerson turns into the Dallas Clark-lite that was hoped for when he was drafted.[/li][/ul]
Whole lot of “Ifs?”…
I doubt Mel and McShay are any worse than the actual teams themselves.
Well, you were half right. McShay and you see eye to eye, presumably it’s not a terribly unique idea to envision Miller as something other than a 4-3 DE. Kiper seems to be thinking along the same lines but he’s got Von Miller going earlier to the Titans at 8.
Draft grade: B | Current Grade: C-plus
He wasn’t as brutal as perhaps he could have been. He seems to agree that it’s too soon to write off Jackson and is giving Tate the benefit of the doubt. Getting Dickerson cooking will be key so Kiper ignoring that point seems a little odd.
Von Miller might not make ot past the 49ers at #7. Reports were that SF GM Trent Baalke was scouting Miller nearly exlusively at Senior Bowl practices. Either way, there will be plenty of quality D-linemen/34OLBs available, as well as maybe a good CB.
It’s nice to see that for once the Bears seem to actually be in the market for positions that aren’t in crazy high demand for a change. In the previous half dozen seasons the Bears seem to be dying for a OT in the same season that 12 other teams are too. And angling for a DL when they are projected to be the 6th team wanting one when there are only 4 or 5 worthy of picks. Granted we’re drafting so late that it might amount to the same result, but I’m at least not in despair yet.
Perhaps it just a bit of selective memory on my part but doesn’t it seem that the teams drafting in the bottom 5, picks 28-32 say, tend to end up getting better players than those drafting from 20-27?
There’s something about drafting in the 20s that drives teams to over think things and reach for guys or to trade out of the spot for a couple middle round picks. Those teams just outside the playoffs or one-and-done teams usually have one or two glaring needs and zero in on them, and by drafting so late they end up either taking the least desirable guy at the position, reaching for a guy they like who’s graded a tier lower or giving away the pick in a trade of marginal gain.
Teams drafting at the end of the round seem less insecure about their teams and see those picks as pure luxury picks. Since they aren’t seen as critical picks the GMs relax and simply take the best guy on their board regardless of need or perception. That usually leads to unglamorous but high upside picks like the best available OG, C, TE, S, NT or MLB. Positions that just happen to be right up the middle of the field where great teams thrive.
I’d give the Browns an A- for their 2010 draft. Joe Haden in particular turned out to be a wise pick, considering how awful Eric Wright has become.
Unfortunately, it’s also quite clear that the 2009 draft was probably a D at best. Alex Mack was a no-brainer in a division that features two very good 3-4 defenses, but every other pick (aside from Massaquoi, maybe) looks like a bust.
Thanks very much for the info. Our local reliable NFL guy, Lance Zierlein, has been big on Von Miller after watching his Senior Bowl practices, so he seemed like a likely choice. Nice to know that after winning that worthless game in Week 17, the Texans have little shot at getting him (or Amukamara—God forbid trading up to get Peterson)… I really don’t understand this team sometimes. Hell, they might run Pollard out of town because he had the gall to scratch himself before their last game.
DB is one of the positions that, if you aren’t Darrell Revis or Leon Hall, you generally don’t shine that much your first year. (Further proof of Texans’ incompetence that they forced Jackson to do just that.) I’d have hope of his improvement, if I didn’t have the examples of Fred Bennett or Dunta Robinson—two players who seemed to have devolved from their rookie years—as proof of the “efficacy” of Texans DB coaching. Perhaps sacking their DB coach will help. I’m hoping that Jonathan Joseph recovers from his injury (is this likely, FoisGrasIsEvil?) and the Texans make him an offer he can’t refuse. I’m sure they will make only a token play for Scrabble Asomugha. Grrrr.
As far as Ben Tate, clearly I didn’t see Arian Foster kicking the kind of ass that he did all year. (failed to draft him in every FF league I was in.) I’d like to see him take more of the load as I don’t see Foster as a punishing runner (and I’d really like to get our from under Derrick Ward’s salary. Gotta’ pay for Mario Williams somehow.) Slaton has been done for me, ever since the neck stenosis problem. Which is too bad as he was very exciting his rookie year. I really hold out hope that Holliday gets it together; I think—perhaps after too many LSU highlights—that he can be a really transcendent return man, Metcalf or Vanover-esque, hopefully…?
There is a lot of upside to the Texans’ draft; it will be interesting to see if and how they develop that potential. . Since they brought back Kubiak, Smith, and many of the rest, I have very little hope for the future.
Damn it all.
Hey, Omni, would you be willing to post the Colts predictions? Thanks!
Looks like there’s plenty of agreement there. Surprisingly both scouts agree on the Eagles choice with the next pick too in Gabe Carimi. Mini OT run apparently.
Just for fun, here’s a few more Mock Drafts from around the internets.
CBS Sports - 2 mocks, click “complete analysis” for commentary.
Bleacher Report - 2 rounds, incredibly annoying slideshow format.
NFL Fanhouse - Out of date due to playoff results.
Todd McShay just updated his Mock Draft to 3.0 today.
Insiders can find it here: 2011 NFL Mock Draft: Defense dominates the top 10, which now contains two quarterbacks - ESPN
The juiciest bit for me was this projection.
I’ve settled on Gabe Carimi as the ideal pick for the Bears now, but in this Mock he’s already gone making Liuget a dream come true. Illini guy, stud with a great motor at a position of need. He’d send Harris’s bloated contract packing, or at least force a renegotiation, and probably flourish with Peppers.
I’m not an insider so I can’t see the full list. Is J. J. Watt going in the first round? He is borderline late first early second in most mock drafts I have seen.
Yup, he’s going #9 to the Cowboys.
Wow, that’s a lot higher than I had seen him taken in any other Mock.
I hope they don’t reach, but a good DE that fits their 3-4 is what I think they need the most. Someone to make teams pay for double-teaming Ratliff and Ware.
Supposedly Cam Newton had an electric workout today in San Diego. Stock appears to be heading upwards.
I don’t think the knock on Newton is anything physical. He’s got the size, arm strength, escapability, and speed that makes you just drool over him. I have no doubts that his workout today (which was solely for the media and NOT for actual NFL scouts, which may tell you something) was spectacular. I’m also sure he’ll be a hit at the combine and his pro day. He’s a very special athlete. I’m sure the naysayers could pick on his footwork and ability to take a snap, but he should be fine.
The issue with Cam is his head. Can he grasp an NFL offense? Can he make more than one read? Can he pickup blitzes and hit his hot read? After watching physical specimens like Jamarcus Russell and Vince Young not live up to their draft position, a lot of people may be leery of rolling the dice on him unless he demonstrates the head and work ethic to succeed in the NFL.
If he can figure the mental/dedication part of the game, he’ll be outstanding.
I don’t really know, but I’ve heard chatter where Dallas might want to trade down from #9 to get more picks to beef up trenches.
If Cincinnati cannot get either Nick Fairley or Von Miller, they should trade down if they can, as they need lots of help in the trenches, at MLB and especially at safety. Drafting Green would be a mistake. “Elite” wideouts in the NFL are overrated, IMO, depending on your quarterback. He’d be a luxury pick for the Bengals and they need to get better where it counts the most, along the oline in particular.
The Bengals look like they are going to not have the services of Carson Palmer anymore, and his worthless brother Jordan will likely be jettisoned when he goes, so that leaves the Bengals with only Dan Lefevour. He’s actually a guy that I think can be molded into an NFL QB. He doesn’t have a big arm, but he does have great athleticism and is accurate.
I don’t know what they are going to do…they should trade down to acquire more picks but Mike Brown doesn’t like to trade his top picks (even though many of them turn out to be busts and never sign on time, either…goddammit).