# 2012 Early NFL Draft Thread - Speculation, Draft Order, Andrew Luck, Mock Drafts Etc. **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 21, 2011, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988 "2011-12-21T20:19:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2011, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/21 "2011-12-30T04:19:17Z")
The Jags have a decent reason to tank - their GM was making noise about how he regretted not taking Roethlisberger a year after Garrard. He thought it would be worth it, but you just can’t draft QBs high back to back like that. He made it sound like he’s changed his mind on that. So the Jags might have reason to lose, to stay ahead of the Browns to be able to grab RG3. So both the Colts and the Jags might be tanking their last game. I want to see a play with 19 fumbles. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2011, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/22 "2011-12-30T04:50:57Z")
I watched some of the Champs Bowl tonight and started getting a little bit riled up over the prospects of the Bears grabbing Michael Floyd. There’s a high bust potential and he disappears for stretches, ala Vincent Jackson, but that could be mostly the QB issue. I’m having an internal debate between Floyd in the 1st round or Toon in the 2nd. I’d support drafting both frankly, but if I had to pick I’d take the risk on Floyd and shoot for a OG in the 2nd or a LB. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2011, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/23 "2011-12-30T14:28:36Z")
I’d love for the Bengals to make a move with their two first rounders and move up to take Richardson. That would be awesome and would hopefully dispel the Kijana Carter Curse. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2011, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/24 "2011-12-30T15:10:32Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I watched some of the Champs Bowl tonight and started getting a little bit riled up over the prospects of the Bears grabbing Michael Floyd. There’s a high bust potential and he disappears for stretches, ala Vincent Jackson, but that could be mostly the QB issue. I’m having an internal debate between Floyd in the 1st round or Toon in the 2nd. I’d support drafting both frankly, but if I had to pick I’d take the risk on Floyd and shoot for a OG in the 2nd or a LB. Floyd’s only issue is his speed. No one works harder than Floyd on the field. See if you can dig up some video of him blocking - he’s a friggin’ beserker out there on a run play, and there are few who can go one-on-one against him on a jump ball. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2011, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/25 "2011-12-30T17:50:07Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > Floyd’s only issue is his speed. I haven’t watched him all that much, but from the games I have seen him play he also has a lot more drops that I’d want from a stud receiver. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2011, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/26 "2011-12-30T19:38:25Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > Floyd’s only issue is his speed. No one works harder than Floyd on the field. See if you can dig up some video of him blocking - he’s a friggin’ beserker out there on a run play, and there are few who can go one-on-one against him on a jump ball. I love WRs who run block. And his TD catch in this game showed that leaping ability to go get the ball. We really need a guy like that to solve some of our redzone issues. Will have to watch what he runs at the combine, but I’m willing to give up speed in exchange for elite size. I seem to recall Hakeem Nicks having a red flag for speed too. > [@wolfman](#): > > I haven’t watched him all that much, but from the games I have seen him play he also has a lot more drops that I’d want from a stud receiver. Haven’t seen enough film to know one way or another, but when we have Roy Williams I find it hard to think anyone could be worse than him on that count. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2012, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/27 "2012-01-01T00:08:25Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > \ > Haven’t seen enough film to know one way or another, but when we have Roy Williams I find it hard to think anyone could be worse than him on that count. [Sorry](http://thepenaltyflagblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Roy-Williams-First-Down-Celebration.jpg). ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2012, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/28 "2012-01-01T06:13:06Z")
I’ve spent the last few years focusing my first-round efforts on top-ten prospects. Now that my 49ers are going to be picking late in rounds, I have to start scouting differently. My thinking: We need a big-body receiver, and I could see trading up to grab one, like Atlanta did. A top-flight corner might also be worth trading for, if anyone is willing. Standing pat, we could look for an offensive lineman, maybe even David DeCastro, the guard from Stanford. Or trade back with somebody wanting sneak in a QB, you get an extra 2nd rounder plus a late-round special teamer pick; maybe even something high next year. Worst case is best-player-available, depth is always good, sometimes it even keeps talent away from your rivals. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2012, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/29 "2012-01-01T16:35:25Z")
RG3 declared mofos! ---
**Author:** ![Chicagojeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b19c9b/32.png) [@Chicagojeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chicagojeff)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2012, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/30 "2012-01-01T20:09:57Z")
I like Floyd cause he plays in south bend… so he’s not like some puscator wide out who can’t play in the cold… The ND thing certainly plays REAL big in Chicago… No way St Louis takes a tackle… even one as good as Kalil… They have to sell tickets… Tackles don’t sell tickets… and if you look at the one they took… and old boy in MIami… no guarantees… like they think… Likewise… Claiborne is the truth as a corner. but the Vikes need outside help… I can’t see then going with a corner… they need soo much more. THe Skins… i predict Shanny and the Nerd won’t want to start all over again… they’ll cut a deal with Indy and get Manning… I predict Peyton Manning taking snaps in Washington in 2012… ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2012, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/31 "2012-01-01T21:17:58Z")
Matt Flynn and Justin Blackmon to the Browns? Not sure if I’m really sold on Flynn. Probably rather have RG3. But since he wouldn’t cost a draft pick, it becomes more appealing. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2012, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/32 "2012-01-01T21:19:59Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > I’ve spent the last few years focusing my first-round efforts on top-ten prospects. Now that my 49ers are going to be picking late in rounds, I have to start scouting differently. Tell me about it 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2012, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/33 "2012-01-02T01:28:05Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Well, an awful lot has changed since I started the thread. Let’s see if I can predict what the final draft order will be. > > **Top 3: Colts, Rams, Vikings** > The Colts still have the edge over the Rams with both teams tied at 2-13, but the Rams face the powerhouse 49ers who are playing a must win game. It’s in St. Louis but there’s virually no chance that the Rams pull out a victory here. The Saints and Niners both play at Noon so there’s no chance of a reprieve for the Rams. They are finishing 2-14. > > The Colts on the other hand get the lowly Jags in Jacksonville who have actually looked even worse than the Colts of late. If the Colts win this game you will hear some truly apoplectic reactions on sports talk stations nationwide and the news in Indy will reach Pearl Harbor-like hysteria. It will be a catastrophe of immeasurable proportions. Yes, the Colts could still land RGIII and maybe even Luck if something gets wonky with the Rams/Bradford/Combine but a win here would be so counter productive that it’ll enrage people. I think the Colts still lose, they aren’t going to tank, but I think the Jags will muster just enough with MJD to win this one in front of about 5300 fans. > > I include the Vikings here because with these three teams having .571. .552 and .565 SOSs (Rams, Colts, Vikes respectively) there might be some bizarre scenario where a Viking loss and a Rams and Colts win combined with some other outcomes could have those numbers flip flopping. Maybe not, but I’m not doing the math. Anyways, the Vikings might beat the Bears in the dome anyways making it moot. The interesting scenario is that a Vikings win could very likely drop them all the way down to the 6th pick on the back of that high SOS number. > > **Next 3: Browns, Jags, Bucs** > All three teams are locked at 4-11. The Browns and Bucs are both facing playoff teams still competing for seeding and I’m penciling them both in for a loss. The Jags already discussed are looking at a win against the Colts. This win would bump them all the way up to 8th based on SOS assuming Miami and Washington losses. > > \*\*Next 2: Redskins, Dolphins \*\* > Both teams are playing winnable games. The Dolphins face the Jets who are hoping to back into the playoffs in Miami, a game I really think they will win. The Jets have gotten lucky as hell and backed into the playoffs 2 years in a row, this year I think they fall on their faces. The Redskins have the Eagles who seem to be coming together in garbage time, a classic Andy Reid trait, and I suspect the trend will continue. > > **Next 3: Panthers, Bills, Chiefs** > As nice of a season as Newton is having I don’t think he has the dap to upend the Saints who are rolling and need this win. That Panther defense is in for a long long day. I’d say you can replace the Panthers and Saints with Bills and Patriots in the previous sentence here but the news of Brady’s sore shoulder offers a glimmer of hope. Still, I’m not expecting an upset here. The Chiefs are going to Mile High against the Tebows and I think Orton will get his revenge. > > So, the Top 10 picks if my guesses are correct would be: > > 1. Colts (2-14) > 2. Rams (2-14) > 3. Browns (4-12) > 4. Buccaneers (4-12) > 5. Vikings (4-12) > 6. Redskins (5-11) > 7. Jaguars (5-11) > 8. Panthers (6-10) > 9. Bills (6-10) > 10. Dolphins (6-10) > > \*\*The Next 5: Cards, Eagles, Seahawks, Chargers, Bears \*\* > The Seachickens and Cards are going head to head with nothing at stake. One will win, one will lose. The loser will be picking 11th, it’s in Phoenix so I’m taking the Cards to win. The Eagles as noted are expected to beat the Redskins and will be moving down the list with the Cards. You’ll see by where I ranked the Vikings above I think they’ll get over on the Bears this week. It’s probably a coin flip, but between homefield advantage, the odds of a let down from McCown and a Bears defense that seems to have packed it in I’ll go with the bad guys. And, I’d rather have the Bears in the top 13 as opposed to the top 20. The Chargers are in a position to play spoiler against the Raiders in Oakland. The Raiders seem like an obvious pick to crap the bed when the playoffs are on the line. We haven’t seen this inconsistent Charger team playing a meaningless game in a while so they could very well quit too, but I think Norv coaxes one more big statistical night from these guys. > > **The Next 6: Titans, Cowboys, Jets, Raiders, Giants, Broncos** > The Titans get the Texans this week in a must win. They are fighting for the last playoff spot in a really complex scenario. The Texans don’t have much to play for but they’ve floundered quite a bit as of late. My gut is going with the Titans here, though I think they miss the playoffs. The Jets I already picked to lose to the Dolphins. The Raiders go down too. The Broncos fall in the revenge of Orton and the Cowboys and Giants are going head to head. I have no feel for who will win this one, the winner goes to the playoffs. For kicks I’m going to pick the Giants just for the headlines of a Cowboys collapse. > > Here’s the next 10 teams: > 11) Seahawks (7-9) > 12) Chiefs (7-9) > 13) Bears (7-9) > 14) Cowboys (8-8) > 15) Cardinals (8-8) > 16) Eagles (8-8) > 17) Jets (8-8) > 18) Raiders (8-8) > 19) Chargers (8-8) > 20) Titans (9-6) > > In this scenario the Broncos still back into the playoffs on the heels of a Oakland failure. Cincinnati also gets in regardless of the outcome of their game due to the Jets and Raiders/Broncos losing. Tennessee gets left out in a hard luck scenario. Dude, I fucking nailed this. Only one I missed was the Bears-Vikes and that was more a heart over head pick. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2012, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/34 "2012-01-02T01:44:34Z")
Copied from a ESPN Chicago artilce, a list of key FAs who the Bears need to make some decisions on. > [@](#): > > The group includes defensive ends Israel Idonije and Amobi Okoye, cornerbacks Zack Bowman, Corey Graham and Tim Jennings, safety Craig Steltz, running back Kahlil Bell, tight end Kellen Davis and quarterback Caleb Hanie. I suspect Izzy will be brought back along with Okoye, Bowman is probably gone. Graham will be back unless a team decides to pay him starters money, Jennings could be back as a #3 CB but they’ll replace him as a starter. They should have signed Carlos Rogers this offseason like I wanted, but here we are. Steltz will probably be a back with a modest pay bump. Bell will be a wild card, the Bears will keep him unless someone else overpays him. He might get signed before Forte as leverage. Davis could go either way, might hinge on if Martz is back or not. Hanie…duh. Probably the bigger question is if Martz will be back. Everyone in the local media seems to think Angelo, Lovie, Marinelli and Tice are all sure things to return. Martz is a 50-50 proposition and Tice got a nice contract extension last offseason which could prime him for a promotion to OC if Martz goes elsewhere/gets fired. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2012, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/35 "2012-01-02T01:49:29Z")
The Rams are [going to fire](http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7411847/source-st-louis-rams-fire-coach-steve-spagnuolo-gm-billy-devaney) Spagnuolo and GM Devaney. No surprise, really, but they are just the first of many more announcements to come in the next couple days. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2012, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/36 "2012-01-02T23:18:25Z")
Here’s the [draft order](http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/51322/2012-nfl-draft-order-after-week-17) that’s been established thus far. 1. Indianapolis 2. St. Louis 3. Minnesota 4. Cleveland 5. Tampa Bay 6. Washington 7. Jacksonville 8/9. Panthers/Dolphins (Coin flip) 8. Buffalo 11/12. Kansas City/Seattle (Coin flip) 9. Arizona 10. Dallas 11. Philadelphia 12. New York Jets 13. Oakland 14. San Diego 15. Chicago 16. Tennessee Man, that Bears victory really stings. My early prediction for the top 6 picks. Colts - Luck Rams - Claiborne Vikings - Kalil Browns - RGIII Bucs - Richardson Skins - Blackmon ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2012, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/37 "2012-01-02T23:31:38Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Man, that Bears victory really stings. I was always under the impression that you weren’t a huge fan of draft picks, that they were too much of a crap shoot. Losing a few spots in the middle of the round shouldn’t be that painful. > [@Omni](#): > > My early prediction for the top 6 picks. > > Colts - Luck > Rams - Claiborne > Vikings - Kalil > Browns - RGIII > Bucs - Richardson > Skins - Blackmon Seems like every year there is some guy who comes out of nowhere to go in the top 10 or so. Locker, Spiller, Alualu, Sanchez. It will be interesting to see who that guy or guys are this year. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/38 "2012-01-03T00:48:19Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I was always under the impression that you weren’t a huge fan of draft picks, that they were too much of a crap shoot. Losing a few spots in the middle of the round shouldn’t be that painful. They are a crap shoot, and proven commodities are undervalued relative to them, but why would anyone not prefer a 13th pick over a 19th pick? That’s pretty close to what the Jags swapped with the Redskins for in the 2011 draft to grab Gabbert, it cost them a mid 2nd round pick which frankly might have been an undervalued trade. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/39 "2012-01-03T00:59:09Z")
I think RG3 is going to become a combine sensation and rise up in hype and there’s a good chance Washington or someone else trades up with St. Louis or Minnesota to steal him from the Browns. Which the Browns could beat, with their greater position and more draft picks, but I’m far more enthusiastic about letting him fall to us than having to trade up. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/40 "2012-01-03T01:21:17Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > I think RG3 is going to become a combine sensation and rise up in hype and there’s a good chance Washington or someone else trades up with St. Louis or Minnesota to steal him from the Browns. Which the Browns could beat, with their greater position and more draft picks, but I’m far more enthusiastic about letting him fall to us than having to trade up. RGIII is going to go one way or the other at the Combine. He’ll interview exceptionally well, that I have no doubt about, and he’ll measure great. However his throwing mechanics could get ripped to shreds ala Tebow and if he works out, accuracy issues could kill him. It’s a pretty deep QB class this year, not sure people will pay a ton to move up for him when they can get Jones, Tannehill or Weeden in the second. If I’m the Rams or Vikings and I’m sticking with Bradford or Ponder respectively over anyone but Luck, I’m trading with the Browns. If I can move back a spot, get a 2nd rounder and still get the top guy on my board it’s a no brainer. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988.md?page=3)