# 2012 Early NFL Draft Thread - Speculation, Draft Order, Andrew Luck, Mock Drafts Etc. **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 21, 2011, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988 "2011-12-21T20:19:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2012, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/81 "2012-01-13T21:17:57Z")
Ah, that isn’t an “official” bleacher report blog or anything. I didn’t realize how bleacher report works - it essentially dresses up fan submissions in an authoritatively looking way as if it were written by people who had some idea of what they were talking about. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/82 "2012-01-13T21:47:21Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Ah, that isn’t an “official” bleacher report blog or anything. I didn’t realize how bleacher report works - it essentially dresses up fan submissions in an authoritatively looking way as if it were written by people who had some idea of what they were talking about. Precisely. When I google for information and analysis … excuse me … RELIBALE and INFORMED information and analysis … about the NFL, I tend to ignore Bleacher Report entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2012, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/83 "2012-01-13T21:50:33Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Precisely. When I google for information and analysis … excuse me … RELIBALE and INFORMED information and analysis … about the NFL, I tend to ignore Bleacher Report entirely. Yeah, and you can’t visit their site with out getting nagged to sign up for their newsletter. Even when you are already subscribed. Hey it’s another slideshow! ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2012, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/84 "2012-01-14T03:02:09Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > If anyone is interested, Mel Kiper regraded last years draft [here](http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7442150/mel-kiper-regrading-2011-nfl-draft). It’s for ESPN Insiders only, if you have requests I’ll post your teams evaluation. I’d love to see how the Cowboys did, with Murray breaking out the way he did…before he plain broke. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2012, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/85 "2012-01-14T03:17:16Z")
> [@kidchameleon](#): > > I’d love to see how the Cowboys did, with Murray breaking out the way he did…before he plain broke. \*\* Dallas Cowboys\*\* (1) 9 Tyron Smith (2) 40 Bruce Carter (3) 71 DeMarco Murray (4) 110 David Arkin (5) 143 Josh Thomas (6) 176 Dwayne Harris (7) 220 Shaun Chapas (7) 252 Bill Nagy Post-draft grade: B- Summary: I said then that I liked the conviction Dallas had to get younger on the offensive line, stay at No. 9 and take Tyron Smith, even though that was no home run in terms of value. Still, that pick turned into a win for the Cowboys. Smith, who started all season as a 20-year-old, played on the right side, but all indications are he could develop into a blindside tackle if they find it necessary to move him there. The grade rises if he can. Right now, a right tackle isn’t your goal with a lineman taken at No. 9 overall. Bruce Carter’s NFL script is still unwritten, but DeMarco Murray obviously was a great value in the third before he went down for the year. Murray’s injury, incidentally, is why it’s hard to ever say a great running back out of the third round is a “steal” – RBs land in the third because you expect them to get hurt. It’s just reality. There isn’t much else here so far. Dwayne Harris flashed in the preseason but wasn’t a factor. Aside from Smith, the best rookie was kicker Dan Bailey, but alas, he wasn’t drafted and thus can’t be factored in here. New grade: C+ Mel’s pretty tough on the Pokes and I have a tough time disagreeing with him. As good as Smith looks, he’s got a point regarding the value of a RT at #9. Ditto regarding Murray and RBs in general, though in the 3rd round a dynamic RB1 who misses 3 games a season is probably a win for a GM, just not a home run. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/86 "2012-01-16T18:43:10Z")
Stolen from [today’s MMQ](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/01/16/divisionals/index.html). > [@](#): > > **Factoid of the Week That May Interest Only Me II** > The Oakland Raiders might be the most impetuous drafting organization in NFL history, and the 2012 draft is a good example. > > They traded the first-round pick in October as part of the Carson Palmer deal with Cincinnati. > > They traded the second-round pick last April as part of a deal to obtain New England’s third- and fourth-round picks in 2011. Oakland used those picks to take tackle Joseph Barksdale and running back Taiwan Jones, neither of whom started a game for the Raiders in 2011. > > They gave up the third-round pick in August to choose Terrelle Pryor in the Supplemental Draft. Pryor has not seen the field yet. > > They traded the fourth-round pick to Washington in 2010 for quarterback Jason Campbell. Campbell got hurt in October and is a free agent, likely to play elsewhere in 2012. > > They traded the seventh-round pick to Seattle as part of a deal to obtain linebacker Aaron Curry in October. He played well for the Raiders after the trade. > > Not including compensatory draft picks, that means the Raiders’ first regular draft choice in 2012 will be on day three, midway through the fifth round, on approximately the 148th overall selection. (The exact choice depends on how many compensatory picks the league will dole out this spring.) The Raiders’ first choice, a compensatory pick for the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency, would be at the end of the third round at the earliest – the 97th pick overall. > > The Raiders have also surrendered their second-round pick in 2013 as part of the Carson Palmer trade; that pick could rise to a first-rounder if the Raiders make the AFC title game next year. > > And they’ve also lost a mid-round pick in 2013 as part of the Aaron Curry trade. > > So let’s tally this up. > In 2012, Oakland has two of its seven draft picks left. > In 2013, Oakland has five of its seven draft picks left. > > With holes in an aging roster, they’ve traded seven of their 14 draft choices in the next two drafts … including a one, two twos and a three. > > Good thing new owner Mark Davis gave GM Reggie McKenzie a long-term contract. Sheesh. Have fun with that. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2012, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/87 "2012-01-16T20:25:35Z")
I can guarantee you that sort of thing wont continue in Oakland. I’ve already heard MacKenzie say “I like my draft picks” when asked about the Carson Palmer trade. I’m sure the ghost of Al Davis will induce drafts of speedy players, but hopefully they wont be picked more than a dozen slots too early. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2012, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/88 "2012-01-16T20:38:14Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > I can guarantee you that sort of thing wont continue in Oakland. I’ve already heard MacKenzie say “I like my draft picks” when asked about the Carson Palmer trade. > > I’m sure the ghost of Al Davis will induce drafts of speedy players, but hopefully they wont be picked more than a dozen slots too early. Yup. It will be interesting to see how many of the old Oakland scouts and personnel guys stick around under him. Certainly the speed/size obsession won’t go away over night. In other news, Elway has declared Tebow the [starting QB](http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/16/elway-tebow-has-earned-the-right-to-be-starter-in-training-camp/) going into 2012 in Denver. Of course, this is just words and words are wind but it bears watching how this will effect the Broncos draft this year. If they spend a high pick on a QB to challenge Tebow it’ll show that this is nothing but Elway massaging the media to stem off a coming media storm, but if they don’t they’ll be in for the long haul. Hmm. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2012, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/89 "2012-01-16T20:54:29Z")
I think Denver would be wise to acquire some guys who can play the same way as Tebow, like Dennis Dixon or Pryor, or whover in this draft. Just so the style wouldn’t change if Tebow takes a big hit. (Watching Aaron Rodgers yesterday, maybe he could back up Tebow, he was running so much. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2012, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/90 "2012-01-16T21:04:20Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > I think Denver would be wise to acquire some guys who can play the same way as Tebow, like Dennis Dixon or Pryor, or whover in this draft. Just so the style wouldn’t change if Tebow takes a big hit. > > (Watching Aaron Rodgers yesterday, maybe he could back up Tebow, he was running so much. If you do that, you’d better be _really, really, really_ sure that this Tebow offense can be effective in the NFL long term. Proposing this is like proposing that the Wildcat become your base formation and you draft accordingly. I suspect that NFL defenses will adjust to the version of the read option that Tebow is running and destroy it. Then, if you have Tebow and Dixon as your 2 QBs and some middle round rookie or Brady Quinn as your #3 and this offense becomes nonviable you’re screwed for 4+ years. Tebow is a gimmick. I doubt it’s a gimmick that can be built into a foundation, but if it is you need to start drafting players who fit it accordingly. You need a stable for RBs who can share the load and execute the read option as well as he does. You need lineman who can dig out a DT and reach a DE and pull both directions, zone blockers need not apply. You need a monster at TE like Gronkowski to bail out Tebow when there are 9 in the box and you run play action. Getting a backup QB who can imitate him is probably their 4th or 5th need at best. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2012, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/91 "2012-01-17T07:58:00Z")
The thing about Tebow is that it seems like his flaws are coachable/correctable. His motion is fucked, but you can fix that with a lot of work. His release is fucked (which causes those wobbly passes), but you can fix that with a lot of work. You can’t really teach somebody how to run, or how to work hard, and it seems like he can do those things. He seems to have enough arm for deep passes. And he actually does do some things well, like not staring down his primary receiver (which is a flaw for many young QBs). He’s not a lost cause. I just can’t imagine the amount of work it would take to relearn how to throw a football. When you enter the pros doing something awkwardly or inefficiently, and you have success (for whatever reason) right away, often the biggest hurdle then becomes motivating yourself to change. After all, doing it your way got you there, why change? (So, my point here is that you don’t have to marry yourself to 2011 Tebow when you give him the keys. Saying he’ll always play football the way he plays right now is laughably ignorant.) ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2012, 8:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/92 "2012-01-17T08:18:49Z")
**Philadelphia Eagles** 1- Danny Watkins, G 2- Jaiquawn Jarrett, S 3- Curtis Marsh, CB 4- Casey Matthews, LB 4- Alex Henery, K 5- Dion Lewis, RB 5- Julian Vandervelde, G 6- Jason Kelce, C 6- Brian Rolle, LB 7- Greg Lloyd, LB 7- Stanley Havili, FB Post-draft grade: C+ Summary: The Eagles targeted needs, but I didn’t think the value was great. Danny Watkins looks like a solid guard after really struggling early in the season, but again, this is a guy you drafted to play guard at No. 22 overall – there’s an expectation that he can be successful early. Jaiquawn Jarrett saw action in 12 games, but I thought he might be the clear starter by this point. Casey Matthews was a reach and saw some time, but he has a ways to go and probably isn’t a starting linebacker for a competitive team. Dion Lewis looks like a player who will help this team, but you expect running back value late. The sixth round provided some obvious value. Elsewhere, Alex Henery proved to be a good pick – he went 24-of-27 on field goals after Philly showed a lot of faith by taking him at No. 120 overall and letting David Akers walk. Not a terrible draft, as some of these guys got experience, but a little light on impact right now. New grade: C I thought the Eagles draft was fascinating on many levels. Watkins started out horribly but ended up being really solid and will be a fixture at RG for years. He got the nod from Pro Football Weekly’s All Rookie team at guard. Jarrett didn’t do much but at least showed he was a competent tackler unlike everyone else on the defense. Marsh was a project pick and did nothing at all. In fact, less than that, because every time he was on special teams he seemed to fail catastrophically. But that doesn’t reflect upon him as a CB project. Matthews failed but maybe never had a fair shot to begin with. He’s not showing much promise outside of a limited package LB, maybe nickel. Henery was a joke in the 4th round but became the most accurate rookie kicker ever, so there’s that. Dion Lewis didn’t do much as a runner and was at best the league’s worst return man. Vandervelde is so far more of an opera singer than NFL player (at least he’s a really good opera singer). The real gems came in the 6th. Kelce was terrific at center all season and really proved himself capable of being the Eagles’ version of Jeff Saturday for the next decade. He and Jason Peters formed the most athletic O-Line in the NFL. Brian Rolle was the only guy behind the defensive line who ever made big plays. He’s small, but he’s ferocious. Definitely a player. Both guys are tremendous values. After that, squat. Say your team goes into the draft, and I’d promise you a fixture along the offensive line for 5-8 years and a future All Pro, a record setting kicker, and two solid starters in the 6th round… with no obvious busts. Would you take it? Would you rate it a C or C+? I’d be happy, and yet… I think both grades are fair, somehow. Fair, though I think the draft looks better now than it did the day after, so I don’t understand the falling grade. Just nits, though. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2012, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/93 "2012-01-17T20:21:27Z")
I just received a “breaking news” alert from ESPN that Andrew Luck signed with an agent. This qualifies as breaking news? Jesus ESPN, dial it back. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2012, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/94 "2012-01-20T12:19:43Z")
Some of the mocks are giving the Browns Blackmon/Tannehill with their 2 first round pick… Tannehill has a Mike Sherman/Holmgren/etc connection. I’m a little scared that that’s a real possibility. Just seems to me that RG3/Kendall Wright would kick the shit out of Blackmon/Tannehill, while using the same picks… If there’s no room in your system for a smart, elite speed, elite arm, accurate quarterback, your system is fucking stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2012, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/95 "2012-01-20T14:27:04Z")
I’ve finally gotten the basement flooding of tears under control, I’ve crawled out of my bottle, took off the sackcloth and washed off the ashes. I’ve come to grips with the loss (watching the Packers win the Super Bowl live sure helped), and I’m starting to get into the whole draft thing. While I work my way through the tons of crap out there about prospects and team needs, I have been looking back at prior drafts. Maybe later I’ll take a gander at my many hits and misses from the 2008 NFL draft. The big issue that I recall off the top of my head was about Joe Flacco. I thought he was a huge reach in the first round (17th? 18th?). Others disagreed. Vehemently. Well, he’s won. And he’s QB’ed a team that is perennially in the playoffs. And he hasn’t lost his starter’s job. But was he worth a first rounder? I think I gotta still say no. He’s a middle of the pack QB (18th rated this year), who has regressed a bit this year (he and rookie Andy Dalton had roughly the same year), and always seems to leave you wanting a lot more. He also seems to have a bit of controversy (Ed Reed seems to be losing patience with him, and I can’t blame Reed a bit) around him. Overall, the jury is still out on the guy, but unless he improves dramatically on his performance this year, I’m going to claim I was right. But I tend to claim that a lot. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2012, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/96 "2012-01-20T20:30:54Z")
I find it awesome that **Hamlet** is officially thinking about the draft before I am. Well. I’ve got a top three list (Luck, RGIII, Blackmon), and I know the 49ers will be in a position to either grab a falling top player, or extort extra picks from a team wanting to pounce on a QB. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2012, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/97 "2012-01-20T22:33:02Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > But was he worth a first rounder? I think I gotta still say no. He’s a middle of the pack QB (18th rated this year), who has regressed a bit this year (he and rookie Andy Dalton had roughly the same year), and always seems to leave you wanting a lot more. He also seems to have a bit of controversy (Ed Reed seems to be losing patience with him, and I can’t blame Reed a bit) around him. Overall, the jury is still out on the guy, but unless he improves dramatically on his performance this year, I’m going to claim I was right. But I tend to claim that a lot. Flacco’s growth submarined when Cam Cameron came to town. That guy sucks, I’m reserving judgement until he gets the axe. Still, Flacco was a hit in the draft. He’s by no means a Pro Bowler, but that’s not a reasonable standard, if all QBs need to be Pro Bowlers to count as hits in the first round we’re going to have to just give up on the entire prospect of forecasting drafts. Considering most first round QBs tend to never start more than a handful of games and almost never make the playoffs I think he’s well ahead of the curve. Guys drafted in around the same area as Flacco are Cutler, Freeman, Quinn, Tebow, Ponder, Gabbert, Leinart, Rodgers, Campbell, Grossman, Reothlisberger, Boller and Losman. I mean, yeah Ravens fans would love to see more from Flacco, but considering the batting average if QBs outside the top 10 he’s doing OK. He’s what, 4th best of that list? Maybe 3rd if you want to hate on Cutler a bit? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2012, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/98 "2012-01-20T22:56:09Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Flacco’s growth submarined when Cam Cameron came to town. That guy sucks, I’m reserving judgement until he gets the axe. Still, Flacco was a hit in the draft. He’s by no means a Pro Bowler, but that’s not a reasonable standard, if all QBs need to be Pro Bowlers to count as hits in the first round we’re going to have to just give up on the entire prospect of forecasting drafts. Really? Seems a bit of an overreaction to me. What are your expectations for a mid first round pick? Being a competent starter? Not completely sucking? Being the league average at the position? I can buy that as the expectation … for their first year. But I certainly expect more than average by the time they’re done with their third year. I would suggest that most GM’s do too. And that’s what Joe Flacco is. Average. He’s firmly entrenchex on that mass of NFL QB’s who aren’t very good and aren’t incompetent. To me, you can find guys like that well outside the top 20. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/99 "2012-01-21T01:49:16Z")
Irsay has been trying to hint that the Colts could still take RG3, and I don’t understand why. I mean, what’s to be gained by that? They’re not trying to upsell the value of the pick because they’re unlikely to trade it, and even then, if your goal is to move Luck, trying to say you’re not that sold on him doesn’t raise his value. You could simply open up the market and get offers - no smokescreen required. Colts are on the clock, have an obvious pick, and there’s no need for a pre-draft smoke screen to hide their intentions. So why is he getting cute? Edit: I guess the possibility is that he’s trying to sell his fanbase on the idea of maybe getting RG3 instead of Luck. Manning comes back healthy for another 2-3 years, Colts get 3 first rounders from the Browns, improve the team around Peyton for a few more runs, draft RG3 at #4, and let him develop for a few years… I could live with that. I think I might rather take RG3 at the cost of one draft pick, but it’d be a close call. In any case, I’d rather have a guaranteed Luck than have the Browns front office simply pass up RG3 because they’re retarded. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/100 "2012-01-21T02:04:05Z")
The more I think about it, the more I actually think it could make sense. If Manning is healthy, drafting Luck and sitting him behind Manning for a year or two would create some stress there since Luck is supposed to be ready to go. But you could justify sitting RG3 a year or two since he didn’t run a pro style offense in college. If the Colts get to pick Luck, or RG3 + 2-3 more first round picks, and they’ve got a healthy Manning for a bit… they get to build their new core while also making serious runs at the superbowl while also allowing a very high upside QB to develop behind a top-3 all time QB, and avoid the PR problem of Manning playing elsewhere. (Imagine if Luck struggles, and Manning is traded to the 49ers or Jets and is just obliterating teams). If Manning is healthy, and they think RG3’s upside is somewhere near Luck’s, this actually makes quite a bit of sense. I doubt they’ll do it - but I’m starting to think it might actually be the right move for them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988.md?page=6)