# 2012 Early NFL Draft Thread - Speculation, Draft Order, Andrew Luck, Mock Drafts Etc. **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 21, 2011, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988 "2011-12-21T20:19:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/101 "2012-01-21T19:09:05Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > And that’s what Joe Flacco is. Average. He’s firmly entrenchex on that mass of NFL QB’s who aren’t very good and aren’t incompetent. To me, you can find guys like that well outside the top 20. It very hard to find these guys period. You act like average QBs fall out of trees, most QBs utterly and completely suck. That’s why I listed those 1st rounders above, I mean Flacco could be better but multiple playoffs and a consistent starter is way above average for the typical QB drafted. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/102 "2012-01-21T23:41:25Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > … multiple playoffs … Probably should give the defense a measure of credit for this. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/103 "2012-01-22T00:54:31Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > It very hard to find these guys period. You act like average QBs fall out of trees, most QBs utterly and completely suck. You can find average QB’s much easier, and much later in the draft, than you seem to think. Look at who the “average” QB’s in the league are. There are some high draft picks, (Cutler, Flacco, Palmer), but there are also a bunch who are later round picks (Tavarris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Matt Hasselback, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton), and some even very late (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Matt Moore). In my opinion, there are more than enough average QB’s out there. Hell, you could pick up Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, or Vince Young almost anytime you like. Elite QB’s are rare, but average QB’s. Meh. To me, it’s just about opportunity. There is certainly a range of QB’s in that huge middle, but there is also some guy you could pick up every year to be average. Joe Flacco wasn’t drafted in the middle first round to be average. He was drafted there to be elite. And he’s not even close to that. ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/104 "2012-01-22T01:14:21Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Irsay has been trying to hint that the Colts could still take RG3, and I don’t understand why. I mean, what’s to be gained by that? He could also just be trying to bring the signing price down a million or two. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/105 "2012-01-22T03:41:46Z")
Salaries are slotted within pretty hard bounds now aren’t they? ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/106 "2012-01-22T03:54:45Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Salaries are slotted within pretty hard bounds now aren’t they? I’m not sure, I’ve never seen a good breakdown of it, but I’m sure there’s still some room for negotiation, especially at the top. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/107 "2012-01-23T05:14:55Z")
So… Who’s a good return guy? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/108 "2012-01-23T12:55:03Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > So… > > Who’s a good return guy? I really like this Kyle Williams kid from the 49ers. Sure hands, great decision making, and never makes a mistake. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/109 "2012-01-23T17:48:17Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > So… > > Who’s a good return guy? I’d be happy if the Texans ended up with Kendall Wright in the first round. I’m sure they’d be fine with sending you Jacoby Jones… What a brutal way to end those games yesterday. Though, IMHO, the Ravens did it to themselves. How do you possibly justify keeping a kicker in today’s NFL who for the season was, IIRC, 1-8 from 50 plus, and roughly 50-50 from 45 on? I agree with Hamlet’s statement that you can find average QB play later in the draft (for a given degree of “average”: Matt Hasselbeck was 16th-18th on Football Outsiders’ list of QB stats (DYAR, DVOA, EYards)), but while it’s possible to find it, you’ve got to sift through a whole lot of busts. How many years in a row do you want to spend looking for a QB? Even a good QB prospect is going to be wasted, if you don’t bother trying to protect him. See, Blaine Gabbert, David Carr, etc… There’s a reason that decent QBs usually go for a king’s ransom on the trade market. Although what Oakland did was absolutely insane. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/110 "2012-01-23T17:54:25Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > What a brutal way to end those games yesterday. Though, IMHO, the Ravens did it to themselves. How do you possibly justify keeping a kicker in today’s NFL who for the season was, IIRC, 1-8 from 50 plus, and roughly 50-50 from 45 on? Yeah, wasn’t Cundiff run out of Dallas for shanking a handful of clutch kicks? ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2012, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/111 "2012-01-23T18:55:12Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Yeah, wasn’t Cundiff run out of Dallas for shanking a handful of clutch kicks? That rings a bell or two. According to this [deadspin piece](http://deadspin.com/5878329/what-went-wrong-on-billy-cundiffs-missed-kick) on Cundiff’s kick, he was out of the League entirely in '06 and '07. I had thought he was a lot worse this year, than his Pro Bowl 2010 season, but he actually was [decent this year too](http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6154), with only a 1-3 stinker in Cleveland, and a missed 40 yarder in Pittsburgh. Neither of those places are easy to kick in. He just has no range whatsoever. Which was a killer yesterday, as who else goes for it on 4th and 6 vs trying a 50 yarder in mild conditions? Looking at the replay, it seems the Ravens just rushed things. And Baltimore had a timeout too. Did they think they could carry it over to OT? ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/112 "2012-01-24T22:16:46Z")
Mike Mayock has released a early positional ranking for the coming draft. [Check it out](http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d82648f38/article/early-positionbyposition-rankings-for-2012-nfl-draft?module=HP11_content_stream) if you’re inclined. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/113 "2012-01-25T00:40:46Z")
I’m interested in this Alshon Jeffery kid. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/114 "2012-01-25T01:11:33Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > I’m interested in this Alshon Jeffery kid. Yeah, I know I’ll be slaving over all the WR scouting reports and workout videos. Jeffery worries me a little because of his lack of speed. He might end up playing like an old Boldin, but in the right scheme he might be great. I’m really hoping that the Bears can manage to end up with Floyd, everything I’m reading about him seems perfect for what we’re probably going to be trying to do. WR might be the hottest position in the draft after QB this year. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/115 "2012-01-25T15:53:59Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Yeah, I know I’ll be slaving over all the WR scouting reports and workout videos. Jeffery worries me a little because of his lack of speed. He might end up playing like an old Boldin, but in the right scheme he might be great. I’m really hoping that the Bears can manage to end up with Floyd, everything I’m reading about him seems perfect for what we’re probably going to be trying to do. WR might be the hottest position in the draft after QB this year. As a Notre Dame fan who has seen a lot of Michael Floyd, I think he actually lacks top end speed and envision him as being exactlly what you said about Jeffery: an Anquan Boldin type of receiver. Floyd is a big, big dude for a WR. He could improve his route running, but he has great hands. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/116 "2012-01-25T16:17:52Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > As a Notre Dame fan who has seen a lot of Michael Floyd, I think he actually lacks top end speed and envision him as being exactlly what you said about Jeffery: an Anquan Boldin type of receiver. Floyd is a big, big dude for a WR. He could improve his route running, but he has great hands. Combine numbers will be critical. It was said that he lost some weight and came in faster in his senior season, and it’s possible that in preparing for the combine and getting into an NFL weight regime could continue that trend. In the few games I saw of Floyd, particularly the Bowl game, Floyd was frequently getting downfield behind the defense but his QB wasn’t helping him any. What I like most about him is his ability to go up and get the ball. Those leaping jump balls in the endzone look like NFL caliber plays that are rare to find. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/117 "2012-01-26T21:55:47Z")
I’m already seeing some awesome names, like Nick Toon. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/118 "2012-01-26T21:56:35Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > I’m already seeing some awesome names, like Nick Toon. Son of Al. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/119 "2012-01-26T22:41:55Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Son of Al. Brother to Car and Pon? ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988/120 "2012-01-26T23:22:05Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > If you do that, you’d better be _really, really, really_ sure that this Tebow offense can be effective in the NFL long term. Proposing this is like proposing that the Wildcat become your base formation and you draft accordingly. I suspect that NFL defenses will adjust to the version of the read option that Tebow is running and destroy it. Then, if you have Tebow and Dixon as your 2 QBs and some middle round rookie or Brady Quinn as your #3 and this offense becomes nonviable you’re screwed for 4+ years. Vince Young is the perfect fit. You sign him to an affordable one- or two-year deal and give the read option its NFL shot. Young would be a fool not to take that chance. The Broncos personnel is adequately suited to it; another RB would be nice, as would a blocking TE, but the Oline is mobile enough, they have good blocking WRs and Eddie Royal can play a Percy Harvin role. If it doesn’t work, you look to draft Matt Barkley or whomever in 2013. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-early-nfl-draft-thread-speculation-draft-order-andrew-luck-mock-drafts-etc/606988.md?page=7)