# 2012 French Presidential Election
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [May 30, 2011, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726 "2011-05-30T02:09:25Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)
#### Post date: [May 30, 2011, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/1 "2011-05-30T02:09:25Z")
Not only is the American Republic holding its Presidential election, so is France in 2012. A notable thing to note is that the ultra-conservative National Front may win the first round of the election owing to Sarkozy’s unpopularity and the perversion of Dominque Strauss-Kahn the Socialists’ strongest candidate. Of course even if that does happen, all the other parties will promptly back the second party to curbstomp Mademoiselle Le-Pen.
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### Author:  [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/2 "2012-04-23T00:03:13Z")
Hollande wins first round of election, Sarkozy gets second: [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9219926/France-election-2012-one-in-five-vote-for-Marine-Le-Pen-as-Nicolas-Sarkozy-is-beaten-into-second-place.html](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9219926/France-election-2012-one-in-five-vote-for-Marine-Le-Pen-as-Nicolas-Sarkozy-is-beaten-into-second-place.html)
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### Author:  [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/3 "2012-04-23T00:14:59Z")
So, it seems most likely that the socialist, François Hollande, will be the next President of the French Republic.
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### Author:  [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/4 "2012-04-23T00:19:47Z")
> [@Giles](#):
>
> So, it seems most likely that the socialist, François Hollande, will be the next President of the French Republic.
Really? The article seems to take that stance as well, but I’d think Le Pen voters would be more likely to break for Sarkozy.
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### Author:  [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/5 "2012-04-23T00:39:54Z")
> [@Simplicio](#):
>
> Really? The article seems to take that stance as well, but I’d think Le Pen voters would be more likely to break for Sarkozy.
A lot of them might end up abstaining (as they tend to be apathetic, poor working-class people) and in addition a lot of the moderate Bayrou voters might be scared off to Hollande if Sarkozy moves to the right.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/6 "2012-04-23T01:23:11Z")
[Melenchon](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon) of the [Left Party](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parti_de_Gauche) [got 11%](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012#Preliminary_results) – is there any reason why all those votes wouldn’t go to Hollande in the runoff?
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### Author:  [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/7 "2012-04-23T01:49:30Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> [Melenchon](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon) of the [Left Party](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parti_de_Gauche) [got 11%](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012#Preliminary_results) – is there any reason why all those votes wouldn’t go to Hollande in the runoff?
They almost certainly will all go to Monsieur Hollande but that adds up to only about 40% of the electorate. For him to win he needs to attract Bayrou voters or count on Le Pen’s voters to abstain.
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### Author:  [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/8 "2012-04-23T10:16:14Z")
> [@Giles](#):
>
> So, it seems most likely that the socialist, François Hollande, will be the next President of the French Republic.
Not really. Hollande only came top by 1%. If you assume those who voted for Le Pen will vote for Sarkozy and those who voted for Melenchon will vote for Hollande, then Sarkozy’s a comfortable winner. I don’t know enough about the other candidates to assign their voters.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/9 "2012-04-23T12:32:22Z")
> [@Quartz](#):
>
> Not really. Hollande only came top by 1%. If you assume those who voted for Le Pen will vote for Sarkozy and those who voted for Melenchon will vote for Hollande, then Sarkozy’s a comfortable winner. I don’t know enough about the other candidates to assign their voters.
[Maybe so, but:](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124224291255596.html)
> [@](#):
>
> Three French polls conducted on Sunday evening as results that came in predicted Hollande would win next month’s runoff by eight to 12 percentage points.
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### Author:  [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/10 "2012-04-23T13:19:19Z")
On the radio this morning a French commentator said that a lot of Le Pen voters where protest votes from people who where either going to vote far left or right depending on which would make the biggest impact. A lot of these people will break for Hollande in a two horse race.
Any French posters care to assess that assesment? It sounds strange but I’m not familiar with French voting tactics.
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### Author:  [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/11 "2012-04-23T13:51:54Z")
How about educating a knuckle-dragging yankee like me re the positions of each of those mentioned?
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### Author:  [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/12 "2012-04-23T15:51:47Z")
> [@What\_the](#):
>
> How about educating a knuckle-dragging yankee like me re the positions of each of those mentioned?
Hollande : Socialist party, center left, often portrayed as something of a wimp
Sarkozy : UMP, center right veering ever righter, current president and \*bit \*of an asshole
Le Pen : Front National, 1930s style [del]Death Ray[/del] fascist. This is not hyperbole, she’s even worse than her father.
Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.
[QUOTE=yojimbo]
On the radio this morning a French commentator said that a lot of Le Pen voters where protest votes from people who where either going to vote far left or right depending on which would make the biggest impact. A lot of these people will break for Hollande in a two horse race.
Any French posters care to assess that assesment? It sounds strange but I’m not familiar with French voting tactics.
[/QUOTE]
I doubt it honestly, considering what happened on the eve of Chirac’s second term. Back then due to a combination of extreme ratfucking among the left & greens ; the kind of protest voting you’re mentioning ; and general voters’ apathy Le Pen (senior, not the current one) snuck into the second turn of the election. That put every lefty voter in a shitty position: either abstain and risk Le Pen winning, or go out and vote for an out-and-out crook. Many still feel bitter about having been “forced” to vote for Chirac.
Plus Sarkozy’s courting those sweet, sweet 18.5% real hard, as evidenced by [the UMP’s new frontpage](http://www.u-m-p.org/actualites/a-la-une/5-raisons-de-voter-pour-nicolas-sarkozy-61992004) (“vote for us if you hate immigrants and Muslims ! Also welfare queens !”). Protest votes from the left certainly explain Mélenchon’s surprising 11%, but I don’t know about the FN. It’s true that they’ve reached a higher percentage than usual (they typically gravitate around 14%) but I would wager those are protest votes from the right rather than the left.
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### Author:  [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/13 "2012-04-23T15:58:21Z")
> [@Kobal2](#):
>
> Hollande : Socialist party, center left, often portrayed as something of a wimp
> Sarkozy : UMP, center right veering ever righter, current president and \*bit \*of an asshole
> Le Pen : Front National, 1930s style [del]Death Ray[/del] fascist. This is not hyperbole, she’s even worse than her father.
> Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.
Thanks! … and what are the big issues? Is the Greek bailout one? How about Syria?
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### Author:  [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/14 "2012-04-23T17:18:11Z")
> [@Kobal2](#):
>
> Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.
Is it true he’s talked about nationalizing the banks and big businesses?
Is that taken seriously after Mitterand’s similar attempt? Has that been brought up to Mélenchon?
More generally:
Is there a significant difference in voter turn out between the first and second round? Do young people tend to vote significantly less on the second round than the first?
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### Author:  [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/15 "2012-04-23T20:55:21Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#):
>
> Is it true he’s talked about nationalizing the banks and big businesses?
>
> Is that taken seriously after Mitterand’s similar attempt? Has that been brought up to Mélenchon?
Not sure about that (honestly I’m not paying too much attention, since I don’t vote myself) but I do know he claimed he would tax incomes above 350k euros at 100%. So, yeah, looneytunes 😛
> [@](#):
>
> Is there a significant difference in voter turn out between the first and second round? Do young people tend to vote significantly less on the second round than the first?
Not as far as I can tell - just checked the Wiki for the results of the last election (Sarkozy vs. Royal) : first round was 83.77% of registered voters, second round 83.97%. The election before that, of course, voter turnout was exceptional on the second round as previously mentioned (notably among the young). I wouldn’t expect much difference this time around however.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/16 "2012-04-23T21:19:37Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#):
>
> Is it true he’s talked about nationalizing the banks and big businesses?
>
> Is that taken seriously after Mitterand’s similar attempt? Has that been brought up to Mélenchon?
I dunno, but [here’s](http://inthesetimes.com/uprising/entry/13065/french_left_rallies_around_election_campaign/) what _In These Times_ had to say about Melenchon and his party before the first-round election.
> [@](#):
>
> Mélenchon has taken on the National Front directly, even on these sensitive issues. Highlighting the plight of the undocumented, he attacked attempts to divide workers on the basis of immigration status.
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > The people who work in this country and who do not have papers must have papers, because once they have papers they can protect themselves, they can defend themselves, they can unionize, they can go to the police station when they have a problem, whereas today they’re forced to hide, and we have in a certain sense a sort of internal offshoring. Giving papers to workers without papers means protecting the social legislation of our country.
>
> Speaking to In These Times, University College London professor Philippe Marlière explored the Left Front’s strategy:
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > Mélenchon is targeting Le Pen’s policies and designates the National Front as the 'major enemy’ because he thinks that there cannot be any left-wing revival in France and in Europe if a strong extreme right can keep blurring the political lines between left and right by developing freely a narrative which concentrates on ‘race’ and so-called ‘clashes of civilization’ between South and North or between Islam and the 'West.’
> >
> > It is only by recreating a clear divide between left and right on socioeconomic issues that the Left will be able to reconnect with the working and lower middle-class. His radical reformist views on capitalism and the current crisis have enabled him to do just that: he has been attracting young and working-class voters and stopping Le Pen from setting the agenda on immigration and law-and-order issues.
>
> Yet the coalition is a threat to more than the Right. Mélenchon’s platform is bold and openly radical. He dismisses Socialist candidate François Hollande as “bourgeois” and proposes a shorter work week, higher minimum wage, a jobs program, selective nationalizations, and a 100 percent tax on earnings over 300,000 euros.
No hint there of what “selective nationalizations” would include.
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### Author:  [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/17 "2012-04-23T21:19:57Z")
Not that it has anything to do with the election, but I think it’s interesting that M. Hollande is the former domestic partner of the Socialists candidate in the last presidential election, Mme. Ségolène Royal.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/18 "2012-04-23T22:12:18Z")
[This](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/2012423143911568230.html) is interesting:
> [@](#):
>
> Al Jazeera’s Tim Friend, reporting from Paris, said that Sarkozy would struggle to win votes from the far right.
>
> “Marine Le Pen will not direct her unexpectedly large vote towards Sarkozy,” he said. “She wants to see his party weakened and to establish herself as the strong voice of the right.”
>
> Polls quoted by AFP news agency show most far-right supporters prefer Sarkozy, but up to a quarter - mainly working-class voters attracted by Le Pen’s protectionist trade policies - could switch to Hollande.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/19 "2012-04-23T22:13:24Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#):
>
> Not that it has anything to do with the election, but I think it’s interesting that M. Hollande is the former domestic partner of the Socialists candidate in the last presidential election, Mme. Ségolène Royal.
[shrug] So what, so they both lose a few pinko-points for not being queer . . . 😉
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### Author:  [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2012, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-french-presidential-election/583726/20 "2012-04-23T22:46:10Z")
> [@Kobal2](#):
>
> Hollande : Socialist party, center left, often portrayed as something of a wimp
> Sarkozy : UMP, center right veering ever righter, current president and bit of an asshole
> Le Pen : Front National, 1930s style Death Ray fascist. This is not hyperbole, she’s even worse than her father.
> Mélenchon : far left (but not quite communist), kind of cray-cray when it comes to economy.
So in American terms:
Hollande = George McGovern
Sarkozy (on a middling day) = Obama
Sakozy (in a right mood) = Romney
LePen = Rick Santorum
Mélenchon = Norman Thomas
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