# 2012 NFL Offseason - OTAs and Training Camp **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [May 3, 2012, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798 "2012-05-03T22:20:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/81 "2012-07-12T19:31:18Z")
Cleveland has used like 8 second rounders on receivers since 1999, and they’ve been so wildly successful that they definitely should keep it up. Actually, I think Greg Little will be pretty good. Really, though - Kevin Johnson Dennis Northcutt Quincy Morgan Andre Davis Brian Robiskie Mohammed Massaquoi Greg Little Josh Gordon 8 2nd round receivers in 13 years. I guess 14, if this is really the second rounder in 2013. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2012, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/82 "2012-07-12T19:33:50Z")
I need a drink. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2012, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/83 "2012-07-12T19:35:49Z")
[Football Outsiders](http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/browns-take-josh-gordon-supplemental-second-round)doesn’t project very much success for Gordon. So there’s that. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2012, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/84 "2012-07-12T19:46:37Z")
I actually don’t know much about him, but I know the Browns need receivers and I was pissed we didn’t take Hill in round 2, so I’m just happy to have another prospect on board. What can you guys tell me about his chances? ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2012, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/85 "2012-07-12T19:51:36Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > **3. A third wide receiver who could go in for a starter down and generate 4-6 receptions a game as an X or a Z.** > JASON AVANT! GAME OVER BITCHES. Okay, seriously, while I like Avant for what he does, he’s not a starting caliber WR. He could easily get 4-6 catches, but he’d get fewer than 60-75 yards with them. **No.** > > **9. A third safety that can start or provide a defense with an opportunity to play some ‘Big Nickel’ when needed.** > The Eagles just signed OJ Atogwe, which gives them three capable starters with experience and upside. And Jaiquawn Jarrett will get his first real offseason, though admittedly he’s looking like a serious bust so far. Still a solid **yes.** After overselling Avant last year, I think you’re underselling him here. He’s a limited player, in that he does not have plus speed, but he has some of the best hands in the league, and he could start for a third of the teams. I mean, he was 52-679 off the bench last year; there’s no reason to think that with 3 more targets a game he wouldn’t be around 70-900 for a season. That’s a solid starter. And with the addition of Atogwe, I’d say they have _two_ competent safeties, not three. We’ll see about Jarrett when we see it. Agree on all the rest. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/86 "2012-07-12T20:22:38Z")
> [@furt](#): > > After overselling Avant last year, I think you’re underselling him here. He’s a limited player, in that he does not have plus speed, but he has some of the best hands in the league, and he could start for a third of the teams. I mean, he was 52-679 off the bench last year; there’s no reason to think that with 3 more targets a game he wouldn’t be around 70-900 for a season. That’s a solid starter. That was also against primarily the third best cover guy on the defense’s team. As a slot receiver on a team that plays 3-wide 61% of the time, he’s really not a “bench” player. Avant had four chances at a starting spot that I can see (Jackson missed week 10, and Maclin missed weeks 11-13). In those games he went: Week 10 vs Ari: 1 catch, 2 yards Week 11 @ NYG: 1 catch, 13 yards Week 12 vs NE: 8 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD Week 13 @ Sea: 1 catch, 10 yards Aside from one good game against the second worst pass D in the NFL, he looks like he can’t cut it as a starting WR against starting CBs. > [@](#): > > And with the addition of Atogwe, I’d say they have _two_ competent safeties, not three. We’ll see about Jarrett when we see it. Fair enough, but I’m not sure what you see in Allen that you don’t also see in Coleman, and vice versa. If you think one is competent, I think both have to be, as they’re pretty similar in production. > [@](#): > > Agree on all the rest. Thanks for responding! Always appreciated. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2012, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/87 "2012-07-12T20:42:05Z")
The Seau family donated Junior’s brain for study. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/88 "2012-07-13T05:50:47Z")
So I’m not predicting a superbowl quite yet, but it’s interesting that Browns are #32 on ESPN’s power rankings. The team had a pretty good defense last year, top 10 in scoring - not elite but good enough to win But they had glaring holes on offense. Which have potentially all been addressed. QB and RB were garbage last year. I don’t know how fast Weeden will develop, but he has a chance to hit the ground running, and even if he’s mistake prone, at least he can make all the throws and forces the defense to cover the entire field. Trent Richardson is going to be a beast. Right tackle was a problem all year, and that was addressed with the best pure right tackle prospect in the draft. The guards last year - both rookies - were very uneven but were starting to play well towards the end of the year. If they continue in their development, I think top 5 O-line is a real possibility. With the threat of downfield passing to open up the defense, Richardson is going to run wild. Receiver was a weakness - and Gordon is going to be rough - but certainly between that and the development of Greg Little we’re doing better in that department. No way the Browns get the #1 overall pick next year or belong as the worst team on the power rankings. Vegas has the Browns win line on 5.5, and everyone is betting the under. I want to make a decent sized bet on the over, but I hate betting futures - your money gets tied up for so long. It’s going to be a seriously improved team that surprises people this year. You might say I’m just being an optimistic homer, but I wasn’t saying this sort of stuff last year, I knew it was going to be a mess. Incidentally, I’m not going to make a bet above division standings, I don’t have that sort of confidence. But if someone wants to bet the Vegas line - 5 wins or less - I’ll take the other end of it. We can think up something creative. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/89 "2012-07-13T07:41:43Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > So I’m not predicting a superbowl quite yet, but it’s interesting that Browns are #32 on ESPN’s power rankings. They’re 32 on [NBC Sports’ Pro Football Talk](http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/09/preseason-power-rankings-no-32-cleveland-browns/), too. > [@](#): > > The team had a pretty good defense last year, top 10 in scoring - not elite but good enough to win They were top 5 in scoring and top 10 in yardage, so even better than you led on. But I feel as if maybe those numbers aren’t saying much about what really happened. Granted, I didn’t see any Browns games this last year, but my suspicion is that Cleveland was consistently put behind at a slow, but steady, rate, and then teams took their foot off the gas in the second half knowing the Browns didn’t have any way of coming back. This is entirely a guess, admittedly, but I was surprised to see that Football Outsiders confirms this in a way. Cleveland’s defensive DVOA was 4.2%, which ranked 22. Their first half DVOA was 12.0% (ranked 28) and their second half DVOA was -4.0% (8). I’m probably simplifying things, but I’m not sure this defense is ready to take another step. Regarding the offense, I think that’s where the Browns will fare much better, if not because they can’t be much worse. FO’s Almanac makes a point to mention that the Browns were really bad at rushing (particularly getting long runs, only 7 over 20 yards and 3 were by QBs - LeSean McCoy alone had 14) and they were among the league leaders in sacks over 3 seconds. So Richardson should at least make the run game respectable (I guarantee he tops the Browns’ longest run in 2011 and has more TDs than all the Browns had in 2011), and if Weeden can at least get the ball out of his hands quickly, the passing should improve too. > [@](#): > > Incidentally, I’m not going to make a bet above division standings, I don’t have that sort of confidence. But if someone wants to bet the Vegas line - 5 wins or less - I’ll take the other end of it. We can think up something creative. I’ll take that bet. I actually like the Browns, I root for them a little bit, but I don’t see it happening this year. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/90 "2012-07-13T15:32:40Z")
Teams ran on the Browns last year because they couldn’t stop it. Teams knew that they could grind out yardage on the ground and score late against them. So unless their run D shows drastic improvement, their stats will be deceptive. Here are the first 5 games for the Browns: Philly @Cincy Buffalo @Baltimore @NYG They might start 0-5. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/91 "2012-07-13T16:48:58Z")
> [@MOIDALIZE](#): > > Teams ran on the Browns last year because they couldn’t stop it. Teams knew that they could grind out yardage on the ground and score late against them. So unless their run D shows drastic improvement, their stats will be deceptive. > > Here are the first 5 games for the Browns: > > Philly > @Cincy > Buffalo > @Baltimore > @NYG > > They might start 0-5. Well, they certainly won’t win in week 2! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/92 "2012-07-13T17:27:38Z")
Well, there’s no footage on this Gordon kid anywhere, so all I can do is look at 6’4 230 4.52 over and over again I guess. In other news, Andy Dalton is majorly overrated. We’ll see who has the better ginger. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/93 "2012-07-13T18:14:06Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > I’ll take that bet. I actually like the Browns, I root for them a little bit, but I don’t see it happening this year. Do you have any sort of wager in mind? I figured one of the AFC North guys would take me up on it and we’d do something appropriately themed. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/94 "2012-07-13T18:51:34Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Well, there’s no footage on this Gordon kid anywhere, so all I can do is look at 6’4 230 4.52 over and over again I guess. > > In other news, Andy Dalton is majorly overrated. We’ll see who has the better ginger. Ha. We’ll see about that. Plus, we actually _have_ receivers to throw the ball to. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/95 "2012-07-13T19:52:58Z")
Brees has signed! All fear the Saints, who are hungry for blood! ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/96 "2012-07-14T03:42:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Brees has signed! All fear the Saints, who are hungry for blood! With our luck, Brees will tear the shoulder again while lifting his wallet. Think he got $100 million for 6 years, with $60 million guaranteed. Glad they paid him. Brees has had an incredible impact on the team. He and Payton are a huge part of the complete mindset change in New Orleans. They’ve gone from perennial 8-8 or worse to serious contenders, and won a Super Bowl. Unimaginable heights for the team and long term fans. **GEAUX SAINTS!** ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/97 "2012-07-14T07:57:29Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Do you have any sort of wager in mind? I figured one of the AFC North guys would take me up on it and we’d do something appropriately themed. Not a clue, I’m awful at that sort of stuff I’m afraid. I was thinking something that makes you wear Philly green, or show some public love for the Eagles… but since you’re rooting for the Eagles’ minor league team anyway, it’s not really much of a punishment. But in addition to a wins bet, we have that week one game to think about too. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/98 "2012-07-16T18:46:14Z")
Well, the Forte deal got done. A little bit more money than I would have liked, but we’ll wait and see what the fine print looks like to judge. Early reports have it for 4-years at $32M, which works out to an average of $8/per. Earlier this offseason I projected a 5-year $43M deal based on the comps, so the Bears did a little better than I would have. That said, with all the BS that’s happened since my price would have gone way down to the $6M/year range, tops. The deal supposedly has $18M in guaranteed money which is the only number that really matters, which is a slight bump over Forte’s potential earnings in a 2 year Franchise situation. Looking forward to seeing how much incentive is built into that deal. I’m hoping there’s some health and/or performance clauses to knock it down to the $6M/per range if he starts aging exponentially. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/99 "2012-07-16T20:05:40Z")
Here’s a link to a ESPN Story on it. > **[Isaacson: Bears, Forte both winners in deal](https://www.espn.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/8171035/chicago-bears-matt-forte-winners-new-contract)** > > Matt Forte's new deal is the latest move in a great offseason for GM Phil Emery. > [@](#): > > A few hours before Monday’s 3 p.m. CT deadline, Forte agreed to a new four-year $32 million deal with more than $18 million guaranteed, according to the Chicago Sun-Times, averting a holdout, which is never positive for anyone. The Bears came up a bit from the franchise tender of approximately $7.7 million and down from earlier five-year proposal, according to [ESPNChicago.com](http://ESPNChicago.com)’s Michael Wright, which should also satisfy Forte. > [@](#): > > Still this was an important deal, and it’s a big day for the Bears and first-year general manager Phil Emery, who has done what Jerry Angelo could not do last summer regarding Forte. Emery has had an off-season that looks now to be potentially just short of a rousing success. That’s banking on Brandon Marshall performing as most of us expect, and Emery’s draft picks – specifically the first two – panning out. > > If the Bears’ static offensive line does not greatly reduce the pressure on Jay Cutler, the second guessing will still come fast and furiously at Emery for failing to upgrade there. But for now, he gets high marks and is allowed to feel good at least for one day. > [@](#): > > Forte ends up being in roughly the same neighborhood as DeAngelo Williams’ five-year, $43 million deal ($21 million guaranteed) to stay with Carolina. And it’s almost the same deal signed Sunday by Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch, who will reportedly receive $22.5 the first three years from Seattle. Baltimore’s Ray Rice can now probably expect much the same. The article is pretty rosy, which is OK, but I’m not sure the Bears should be patting themselves on the back too much for signing what’s essentially a market-value deal. Especially since I’m of the mind that Forte is probably not an elite back, but that said he’s probably better than Lynch and Williams at this point. I’ll be really interested to see what happens with Forte now that he can share the load with Bush. Maybe Forte will get better in short yardage and have more burst if he spends more plays on the sideline and stays fresher. Let’s hope. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798/100 "2012-07-16T20:46:58Z")
…and now Ray Rice is done too. 5-years. $40M with $25M over the first 2 years, effectively guaranteed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-offseason-otas-and-training-camp/620798.md?page=6)