# 2012 NFL Pre-Draft Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 8, 2012, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215 "2012-02-08T18:05:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2012, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/241 "2012-03-05T20:11:31Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > Maybe this is just because I don’t think it’s reasonable to value current draft picks (much) higher than future draft picks, but, as St. Louis, I’d definitely prefer that Washington package to the Cleveland package. > > Yes, 4th overall is significantly better than 6th, and I admit I’m not yet as up to speed on this year’s draft as I will be later, but at first glance I’m not seeing any must-have prospects in the 4-6 range who are going to make it a HUGE difference \*this \*year, specifically, _for Washington_. But more importantly: I actually agree with pretty much everything, but it runs contrary to conventional wisdom in the NFL. Maybe it’s because coaches and GMs think about keeping their job from year to year more than any other priority, but the significant drop in value between current draft picks and future picks seems to be universally respected. I’m not sure if Fisher’s situation alleviates that somewhat - in that his job is secure for at least one year - or if he’d really want to make his mark on the team by having multiple first round draft picks in his first year. Luck/RG3/Kahlil/Claiborne seem to be getting hype as the elite prospects, a few people add Blackmon but I think that’s only because of the perception that St. Louis really needs a WR. 4 is definitely a noticibly better place to be than 6, unless the Rams had their eyes set on one of the second tier prospects. In any case, I suspect that the Browns going with #4, #22, #37 would trump anything Washington could do even if they gave up a boatload of future picks. But I’d feel better about it if they manage to snag Flynn or Manning and it drives the price down, obviously. Depending on how free agency shakes out, there’s a chance the Browns will be able to get him at #4. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2012, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/242 "2012-03-05T20:40:08Z")
I’m not a huge Forte honk. I like him a lot and respect what he does, but he struggles too much in the Red Zone and on short yardage to be treated like a elite blue chip talent. Long story short, he’s no Foster, but that said I think he’s much more well rounded and complete than Williams, Lynch or Charles. Of course, without a succession plan or anyone behind him overpaying him by a couple million is better than the alternative of having no one competent in the role. Situations matter in contract negotiations and Forte has leverage. The Bears can afford to pay him and they should for lots of reasons, and having the cap space to do so makes it essentially a risk free proposition. Even if in a pure unemotional evaluation you decide Forte isn’t worth what he’s asking, you need to consider that not having him could really have other costs harder to quantify. The Bears have nothing to lose in the immediate future by paying him. I might complain that he’s over paid in the next 3 seasons and he might be gone in the 4th, but probably half of a given roster on any team is improperly paid to some degree. I’d rather have a marginally overpaid RB1 and QB1 than an overpaid 3rd OT or Nickel. Really if the Bears over pay Forte it’s not because they are being overly generous or sentimental, it’s because Angelo was a unmitigated disaster at locating a timeshare for him and for not protecting him with a better OL and WR group. Angelo’s failures to locate talent gave Forte all the power here. But they also helped us remain under the cap, so it’s fine. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2012, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/243 "2012-03-05T21:08:45Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > The Bears have nothing to lose in the immediate future by paying him. I wouldn’t say “nothing to lose” because there could be a millions of dollars wasted, but, as I said before, “whether they franchise him or sign him long term I don’t think will make a huge difference to the franchise though.” Either way, I don’t think it’s even close to being the biggest thing the Bears should be worrying about. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2012, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/244 "2012-03-05T23:10:13Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > I absolutely agree with you, but wouldn’t the rebuild be aided by all of the draft picks that Luck would garner them? It depends; if the rebuild is confined to those 4-6 players, and Saturday, Clark, Wayne, etc. are all kept around, it’s not really a rebuild, you’re just adding a few prospects to an old team. A true tear-down-and-rebuild process involves drafting and keeping not just a handful of top prospects, but filling your entire roster with young guys with upside, even if they’re not as good right now as the older guys they’re replacing. I’m not sure Peyton is gonna be happy playing with a bunch of rookies after you let a bunch of one-time pro bowl players walk. More importantly, it doesn’t make sense chronologically. Best-case scenario, you get maybe 6 picks for the rights to Luck, spread over 2-3 years. Odds are a couple will be busts, and a couple will take time to develop. By the time all those picks are reaching their potential, Manning is not a 36-year-old QB, but a 38 or 39 year old QB. Unless their opinion on Luck is very different from all the other scouts,’ taking Luck is a no-brainer. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/245 "2012-03-06T02:29:27Z")
Two small things of note. The Packers decided the risk was too great and did not use the franchise tag on Flynn. And the Chargers didn’t franchise Vincent Jackson, who is apparently looming large on the Bears radar. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/246 "2012-03-06T04:18:01Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I wouldn’t say “nothing to lose” because there could be a millions of dollars wasted, but, as I said before, “whether they franchise him or sign him long term I don’t think will make a huge difference to the franchise though.” Either way, I don’t think it’s even close to being the biggest thing the Bears should be worrying about. I agree, it’s barely in the top 5 issues. But, it’s one of the few that they have completely within their power to fix and an obvious path to it. The rest of the issues are a crap shoot at best and will have a lot higher risk-reward ratio. > [@Hamlet](#): > > Two small things of note. The Packers decided the risk was too great and did not use the franchise tag on Flynn. And the Chargers didn’t franchise Vincent Jackson, who is apparently looming large on the Bears radar. I suspect that a Jackson signing would mean the Bears are going to go elsewhere with their first rounder. That’s a good solution but I still prefer the logic of signing Meachem and drafting Floyd. The Bears need 2 pass catchers, not just one. That said maybe I’ve just owned Jackson in too many fantasy leagues and am biased. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/247 "2012-03-06T04:57:19Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Way to avoid the cheap shot! > > 😉 > > Anyway, I’m not sure its a case of Cincinnati “not knowing what it is doing”. By all accounts they have average to above average coaches. And Cincinnati has made the playoffs twice in the last three seasons, and are on the cusp of being a perennially young, talented winning team. And they have extra draft picks and tons of cap space. Not a dim future for a team that (barely) made the playoffs last season. > > Sooo…yeah on Mathis. But sometimes that just happens when a player moves from one situation to another…its funny because the exact opposite thing happened between our two teams in the form of Stacy Andrews. He was a project for us, was never really all that great as a starter, we ended up tagging him anyway but he wanted a huge contract which the Bengals wouldn’t give him after his injury, then he signed for big money with the Eagles and was a bust compared to his contract. His brother was always a better player than him but a headcase. Didn’t they just franchise their kicker and allow Jonathan Joseph to walk, or was that last year? ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/248 "2012-03-06T06:01:58Z")
PFT has a good summary of many of the big name cap casualties we can expect to see in the next couple weeks. > **[Breaking down the NFL's most likely cap casualties](https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/breaking-down-the-nfls-most-likely-cap-casualties)** > > We looked earlier this evening at the top free agents remaining in the post-franchise tag period. I’m particularly curious to hear what McNeill’s prognosis looks like and if he’d be a decent gamble for the Bears. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/249 "2012-03-06T14:51:10Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > In any case, I suspect that the Browns going with #4, #22, #37 would trump anything Washington could do even if they gave up a boatload of future picks. But I’d feel better about it if they manage to snag Flynn or Manning and it drives the price down, obviously. Depending on how free agency shakes out, there’s a chance the Browns will be able to get him at #4. Sounds like the Browns aren’t so willing to trade both 1st round picks. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/250 "2012-03-06T16:02:34Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > Sounds like the Browns aren’t so willing to trade both 1st round picks. They probably don’t have to. The precise of the 2nd pick is overhyped and no one is going to pay what the rumors indicate. And the price is as high as it’s likely to be now, before free agency. There’s certainly no reason that they should publically indicate that they’re willing to trade the pick now, even if they do eventually do it. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/251 "2012-03-06T16:28:00Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > They probably don’t have to. The precise of the 2nd pick is overhyped and no one is going to pay what the rumors indicate. And the price is as high as it’s likely to be now, before free agency. There’s certainly no reason that they should publically indicate that they’re willing to trade the pick now, even if they do eventually do it. You say that it’s overvalued, it’s really, really not. There’s plenty of history to guide us here and if the Browns organization thinks like you do you’d better be prepared for a colossal disappointment. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/252 "2012-03-06T22:38:37Z")
This is a best case scenario, but let’s say Manning lands with Washington and Flynn lands with Miami. That’s not an outlandish scenario. What’s the #2 pick worth now? Is St. Louis going to take Griffin? No. Minnesota? Maybe, but kind of a long shot since they just drafted a first round QB high. Is Seattle going to trade up from the mid teens? For there to be a bidding war, there have to be bidders. Washington doesn’t have that much ammo. Cleveland only has to outbid Washington, if they’re even players in the RG3 game. If Cleveland has the biggest offer on the table, and St. Louis can still get the guy they want at #4, are they going to refuse the free extra picks just because the media hyped a much bigger trade? ---
**Author:** ![MilTan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/71e660/32.png) [@MilTan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MilTan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/253 "2012-03-06T23:45:54Z")
Well, time for the rumor mill to crank up for real. [ESPN is reporting](http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7653897/sources-indianapolis-colts-part-peyton-manning-wednesday) that Manning will be released. ---
**Author:** ![Sateryn76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e4f/32.png) [@Sateryn76](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sateryn76)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2012, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/254 "2012-03-06T23:50:38Z")
Indy is so stupid. This is such a bad move - they’ll get Luck, still have an old team that has been trained to work with Manning for 14 years, and sink into mediocrity. Manning will shine wherever he ends up, and Irsay will be roundly criticized and rightly fired. Way to go, Colts. I’ve been a fan for years, but no more… ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/255 "2012-03-07T00:40:38Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > > [@VarlosZ](#): > > > > Blech. Unless they can get out of a large percentage of that $18M in guaranteed money by cutting Lynch after 1 or 2 seasons, this is just too much to spend on a RB who isn’t extraordinary. Probably. > > Um, you need to look up the definition of guaranteed. No, _you_ need to have more faith that I know what I’m talking about. Money initially reported as “guaranteed” frequently (routinely?) includes money coming in the form of roster bonuses which are paid after the contract’s first year and can be avoided by cutting the player. Example: [Tom Brady’s last contract](http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sheet/index.php/2010/09/09/four-year-extension-for-patriots-quarterback-tom-brady-is-finalized/) included $48.5M “guaranteed,” but $19.7M of that was money that [could be saved by cutting him](http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sheet/index.php/2010/09/14/want-the-details-on-tom-bradys-contract-extension-come-on-in/) before it came due. Likewise, [this guy](http://blogs.fredericksburg.com/redskinsjournal/2012/03/06/report-peyton-manning-to-be-released-by-colts-on-wednesday/), reporting on the Colts’ releasing of Peyton Manning, is (for some reason) still referring to his last contract extension as having included $54.4M “guaranteed,” even though the total amount earned by Manning under that contract turned out to be less than half that. ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/256 "2012-03-07T03:33:52Z")
> [@Sateryn76](#): > > Indy is so stupid. This is such a bad move - they’ll get Luck, still have an old team that has been trained to work with Manning for 14 years, and sink into mediocrity. > > Manning will shine wherever he ends up, and Irsay will be roundly criticized and rightly fired. > > Way to go, Colts. I’ve been a fan for years, but no more… Irsay owns the team. Even if this turns out to be the worst move in the history of professional sports, he’s not going to be fired - there’s nobody to fire him. He already fired the previous GM (Bill Polian) this off-season, so this is the first move of incoming GM Ryan Grigson. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/257 "2012-03-07T04:00:50Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > This is a best case scenario, but let’s say Manning lands with Washington and Flynn lands with Miami. That’s not an outlandish scenario. No, it’s not … but is the ideal for the Browns, and unlikely. It’s going to take two #1s plus more. If the Browns don’t pay that, someone else will: Seattle, KC, someone. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/258 "2012-03-07T04:58:09Z")
Your defense is bad reporting? ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/259 "2012-03-07T12:13:04Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Your defense is bad reporting? Huh? My “defense” is that you implied I was ignorant when the problem was your own lack of information. (This does tend to grate, so I apologize if my post #255 was snarkier than I planned.) [Here’s my usage](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14836738&postcount=231), for reference. I was assuming that you (and most other people here) would know that “guaranteed,” in this context, likely did not \*literally \*mean guaranteed, because this happens all the time in NFL reporting: “bonus money” and “guaranteed money” are treated as one in the same, especially (but not exclusively) when contract details are first reported. Likely this has to do with agents leaking the details in self-serving ways, but whatever the reason it’s almost accepted usage among pro football writers. Perhaps this knowledge is not as widespread as I had assumed, and I should have phrased it differently. Probably this is the case. But it’s also probably the case that you shouldn’t have assumed I’d make a mistake as dumb as not knowing what “guaranteed” meant. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/260 "2012-03-07T12:23:06Z")
Mike and Mike are relaying an article on their show that lists Houston as the #1 spot for Manning to land. Interesting. That team certainly has a lot of pieces in place…and it would be in Indy’s division. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215.md?page=14)