# 2012 NFL Pre-Draft Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 8, 2012, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215 "2012-02-08T18:05:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/421 "2012-03-14T17:30:29Z")
The Vikings signed TE John Carlson to a 5-year, $25M contract. That’s a bunch of money for a not terribly special TE. That worries me a bit about what the price will be to keep Kellen Davis. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/422 "2012-03-14T17:39:27Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > The Vikings signed TE John Carlson to a 5-year, $25M contract. That’s a bunch of money for a not terribly special TE. That worries me a bit about what the price will be to keep Kellen Davis. Well, if we go by production, Davis would be worth roughly one fifth of what Carlson got (even with Carlson missing all of last year), so you figure a million a year. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/423 "2012-03-14T17:40:25Z")
Carlson _could_ be special. He posted excellent receiving numbers as a rookie in Seattle, and then pretty much fell apart when the offensive line did and he had to stay in and block. No way I’d pay him $5 mil per to find out, though. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/424 "2012-03-14T17:55:43Z")
Kyle Orton to Dallas to back up Romo. Props to Dallas and Chicago for not being dumb and addressing their backup QB situations. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/425 "2012-03-14T17:56:10Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Do the Iggles have somebody to replace Justice? Seems like pass protection was already an issue last year. King Dunlap came in a couple times and was serviceable and even competent in limited action. He’d be exposed over an extended period, I think, but he’s a fine backup. It just… doesn’t look right to seem him play live, is all. I don’t think pass protection was nearly as much an issue as people think. All things considered, the line was very good overall. [Pro Football Focus](http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/02/23/ranking-the-2011-offensive-lines-part-2/) graded them #2 in the NFL in 2011. That was with rookies at Center (Jason Kelce, who I thought was pretty good but surprisingly graded out pretty badly) and Right Guard (Danny Watkins). Assuming they resign Evan Mathis, they’re likely\* going to be\* a top 3 O-Line in 2012 too\*. This is a perfect case of a QB causing O-Line issues more than anything else. Vick just isn’t yet efficient enough in the pocket. He’s making strides, but if he doesn’t make it all come together in 2012 it just won’t ever happen. - - Standard issue caveat that I have to add to all posts that may have any sort of predictive quality. There are a lot of variables in sports and I’m not attempting to control for all of them when I make a statement. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/426 "2012-03-14T17:59:03Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > The Vikings signed TE John Carlson to a 5-year, $25M contract. That’s a bunch of money for a not terribly special TE. Everybody is getting overpaid. It’s crazy out there right now. When I look at the deals being signed so far I can’t think of any that make me say, “I wish the Eagles had paid that price for that player.” ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/427 "2012-03-14T18:08:59Z")
Under the circumstances, I feel like the V-Jax deal is, if not a bargain, then at least a value. He’s clearly worth $10 million a year; the Chargers had no problem paying him the franchise tag figure last season (~$13 mil for WRs). The Buccaneers will pay him $55 million over 5 years, of which $35 million is guaranteed. Plus, by keeping the deal to 5 years, there’s no risk of being saddled with Jackson when he starts to decline (he’ll be 34 when the contract ends). Contrast that with the deal Brandon Marshall got from the 'phins in 2010 (5 years, $47 million); players signed via free agency always get more money, because they have leverage, and we are paying Jackson less than 10% more than Marshall got. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/428 "2012-03-14T20:17:22Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Contrast that with the deal Brandon Marshall got from the 'phins in 2010 (5 years, $47 million); players signed via free agency always get more money, because they have leverage, and we are paying Jackson less than 10% more than Marshall got. But Marshall is far more productive and durable than VJax. Not saying the VJax deal is a terrible one, but in the comparison to Marshall it’s not a value, consider Marshall is younger than Jackson is right now let alone 2 years ago. A 5 year deal is a very long one by NFL standards and $35M guaranteed makes it unlikely that he’ll be able to be cut during the first 3. I’d be fine paying that for him, but let’s not pretend it’s a value. That said, Garcon and some of these other contracts are foolish. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/429 "2012-03-14T20:33:52Z")
The Bears have visits scheduled with Michael Bush, Anthony Herrera and Kelvin Hayden. All guys that I’d be pretty pleased to sign. The local beat writers are pretty optimistic. I’m worried about losing Kellen Davis still. ---
**Author:** ![It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/it_s_not_rocket_surgery/32/312_2.png) [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/430 "2012-03-14T20:58:12Z")
The Giants [have signed former Cowboys TE Martellus Bennett to a one year deal](http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/ny-giants-sign-dallas-cowboys-tight-martellus-bennett-one-year-2-5m-deal-article-1.1039041?localLinksEnabled=false). Unquestionably a good move. They HAD to make a move at TE, as both Ballard and Beckum tore ACLs in the Super Bowl. Bennett is probably a better receiver than either, but was mostly buried on the bench behind Jason Witten in Dallas. And this years TE class is believed to be really weak, so no draft help at the position was likely. I only wish it was a two or three year deal. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/431 "2012-03-14T21:21:46Z")
Will the Packers be able to clear up some cap space to do anything? My understanding is that as it stands they are at less $2 million, so unless they restructure some contracts (Donald Driver) it looks like they will be doing very very little. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/432 "2012-03-14T22:01:56Z")
> [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](#): > > The Giants [have signed former Cowboys TE Martellus Bennett to a one year deal](http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/ny-giants-sign-dallas-cowboys-tight-martellus-bennett-one-year-2-5m-deal-article-1.1039041?localLinksEnabled=false). > > Unquestionably a good move. Agreed. Needed to sign a TE, and, as I understand it, the main knock on Bennett was dropped passes — if so, seems like a good fault to have: somewhat likely to be a small sample size problem, makes him an excellent candidate for regression to the mean. And if he just can’t catch, well, it’s just a 1 year deal, and it was a good gamble to take. Also agree that making it a 2 or 3 year deal at this price wouldn’t have been awful, as his upside is vert decent. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/433 "2012-03-14T22:27:00Z")
Bennett is also incredibly slow. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/434 "2012-03-14T22:41:04Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Will the Packers be able to clear up some cap space to do anything? My understanding is that as it stands they are at less $2 million, so unless they restructure some contracts (Donald Driver) it looks like they will be doing very very little. They are very rarely active in the free agent market, anyway, so even if they had the space, I wouldn’t have expected them to pursue any of the big names. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/435 "2012-03-14T22:48:17Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > FWIW, Varlos, I think there was some discussion of the accounting penalties in the Peyton Manning thread. I personally am having a hard time with the idea of the League informally agreeing to fix prices in an uncapped year. It strikes me as “smelling” wrong from an anti-trust perspective. And the NFL’s anti-trust exemption is much less robust than MLB’s. Wasn’t there a lot of talk at the time about how few crazy deals were being inked in a year with no salary cap? To retroactively penalize conduct that occurred before the operative date of your main labor agreement, and therefore, the origin date of the League’s authority to penalize its owners without antitrust implications, really strikes me as rank. IANAL, and certainly not an antitrust or labor or sports attorney, so I am probably missing a lot of pertinent details. > > The problem with any anti-trust implications is that I’d think the only entities with a cause of action would be the players, not either Snyder or Jones. (Perhaps Snyder or Jones could have joined the suit?) And if DeMaurice Smith, _et al_, didn’t hammer this nail more strongly in their suit against the League, who am I to complain? (As an aside, what do we fans feel about how well the players did in their labor dispute? I think the players were bent over a barrel, but I am interested in your insights and opinions.) > > I imagine the logic is that any anti-competitive behavior the League engaged in during the period where no CBA was operative, was retroactively immunized by the new CBA. IOW, the time for Snyder and Jones to bitch about the directive not to spend during the uncapped year, or structure their players’ contracts to burden that year, was before the CBA was signed. > > Thanks for your informative post, Varlos. I too was wondering what we all thought of the penalties. I also found the discussion at FO to be interesting. > > Stepping away from those points, it appears the Texans are going to let their center Chris Myers, and guard, Mike Brisiel, test FA. The more I think about this, the more pissed off I get. $18M walks out the door (Mario’s cap number last year) and you are STILL UP AGAINST THE CAP?! Seriously, WTF!? For crying out loud, you aren’t the Steelers or Raiders. > > Spotrac is updating, so these are from memory. There’s no excuse for not restructuring/outright cutting before now: Antonio Smith, 2 yrs, 15M remaining; DeMeco Ryans, 4 yrs, ~32M remaining; Jacoby Jones, 2 yrs, 7M remaining. Doubtless there are others. > > Finally, off the presses: Megatron signs 7 yr extension for $132M, **[$60M guaranteed](http://detroit.sbnation.com/detroit-lions/2012/3/14/2870765/lions-free-agency-2012-calvin-johnson-extension-worth-close-to-130/in/2456332)** (VarlosZ disclaimer noted) That’s a massive contract. We see the penalties we’re going to have to pay soon, for so much sucking. We have to resign Stafford very soon and we should be looking to retain Jeff Backus at left tackle. I foresee lots of draft day moves for more picks for the Lions, with the usual disclaimer that they won’t move up for a player they specifically have targeted. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/436 "2012-03-14T23:04:32Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > They are very rarely active in the free agent market, anyway, so even if they had the space, I wouldn’t have expected them to pursue any of the big names. Not big names, but they may not have the ability to do much of anything at all without some restructuring. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/437 "2012-03-14T23:37:30Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Not big names, but they may not have the ability to do much of anything at all without some restructuring. If they’ve had positive news on the injuries to Derrick Sherrod and Marshall Newhouse, I fully expect Clifton to either take a pay cut or be released. He’s $5.7 million against the cap, which isn’t bad if he started. But he’s been injured and playing poorly, so unless Sherrod is too injured or Newhouse doesn’t look good, I don’t see Clifton sticking around. Almost the same thing can be said for Driver, who has become more than expendable because of Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jordie Nelson. Cutting him would save about $5 million against the cap. For both Driver and Clifton, I expect a restructure or cut. Neither Driver nor Clifton need to get paid until training camp (no early paid bonuses like Peyton) so the Packers have the luxury of waiting to see what happens in minicamps and injury recovery (and maybe even Dancing with the Stars). Since the Packers are rarely involved in high priced free agents and they have about $7 million in cap space now, I wouldn’t expect a move for awhile. Maybe when draft time comes around and they need the room or they find a free agent they love, but it’s the usual for Packers fans. Sit and watch the other teams pay free agents more than they’re worth. Although that Brandon Marshall guy scares me a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/438 "2012-03-14T23:43:03Z")
And, to soothe Omni’s fears, Kellen Davis signed a 2 year deal with the Bears. No further details yet. Davis seems like one of those physically gifted, underacheivers. He’s huge, pretty fast in a straight line for a guy his size, but in the four years in the NFL he’s had next to no actual production. I know it’s all the rage to blame everything on Martz and the O Line in Chicago, but I’m not too worried about Davis emerging as an elite TE. He seems like just a guy to me. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/439 "2012-03-14T23:54:22Z")
Considering the Vincent Jackson contract (5 years/$55.55 million/$26million guaranteed) was mentioned, it might be a good time to note the Eagles extended DeSean Jackson for another 5 years/$51 million. Very close to Vincent Jackson’s contract, but DeSean only got $15 million in guarantees. And DeSean is only 25. Considering what was given out to Pierre Garcon (5yrs/42.5mil/$20.5mil guaranteed), and Laurent Robinson (5yrs/$32.5mil/$14mil guaranteed), DeSean’s contract is the best bargain out of all of them. You might say, “Wait, that shows how good Vincent’s contract is! He’s way better than DeSean.” You might say that, but you’d be wrong. They’re very, very similar players\*. Vincent Jackson (2008-11) 52gms / 201rec / 3619yds / 28TD DeSean Jackson (2008-11) 60gms / 229rec / 4085yds / 21TD (7TD rush/ret) Even if you throw out Vincent’s 2010 where he sat out most of it and include his 2007, he comes out to 63gms/228rec/3994yds/28TDs, which is still eerily similar. Shockingly so, actually, because I would have rated Vincent Jackson a tier higher in terms of WRs in the NFL. This is a very savvy move by the Eagles. It even frees up about 6-7mil in cap room for this season based on the reported structure (since DeSean was going to be paid the franchise tag at about 9-9.5mil) Just remains to be seen if DeSean has hit his peak or not. He’s a dangerous guy to pay/play. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/440 "2012-03-15T00:28:51Z")
Browns released Eric Steinbach. Didn’t see that one coming. Now they need a RT and a guard. Oh, and a RB. Peyton Hillis signed with the Chiefs, 1 year $3 million. The Browns wouldn’t pay that? ETA: Seems they signed Frostee Rucker away from the Bungles to man the other DE spot. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215.md?page=23)