# 2012 NFL Pre-Draft Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 8, 2012, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215 "2012-02-08T18:05:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2012, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/661 "2012-03-25T22:45:39Z")
> [@furt](#): > > This is my thinking: Forte was a breakout rookie in 2008. By 2009, it was clear that he was clearly outperforming his contract, and talk started of the need to lock him up. Let’s say in 2010 he’d signed a modest 4 year, 15m deal. Assuming that played out, he’d hit FA in 2014 at age 28, having already made 15m. > > As it is, he’s spent the last two years making under 1m. If he’d had some catastrophic career-ending injury at any time in the last two years, he’d have been shit out of luck in terms of financial security. Luckily he hasn’t, and it now appears likely he’s going to be playing under the franchise tag in 2011, which will net him about 8m. Assuming he’s a FA next year, he’ll be hitting the market at age 27, having made under 10m. > > Unless we think the difference between 27 and 28 is \>6 million dollars, he’s made no more money this way, despite taking on considerable risk (and undergoing a lot of stress and damaging his marketabilty to sponsors, etc). And of course, if he had outperformed that 2010 deal, he still could be working behind the scenes on an extension right about about now, when he has two years left on it. > > Precisely because RB careers are so short and vulnerable, guys like Forte who didn’t come in with big rookie deals need to jump on a multimillion dollar deal as soon as it becomes possible. Unless you have some really fantastic post-football career lined up, the difference between 500k and 3 million is much, much bigger than the difference between 3 million and 8 million. You seem to be operating under the notion that the Bears would have even entertained the idea of renegotiating his rookie contract. Doing so in this scenario would mean the Bears were paying him significantly more while only locking him up for 2 extra years. Why would they bother? ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/662 "2012-03-26T03:33:21Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > You seem to be operating under the notion that the Bears would have even entertained the idea of renegotiating his rookie contract. Doing so in this scenario would mean the Bears were paying him significantly more while only locking him up for 2 extra years. Why would they bother? Since the Bears were making him a long-term offer last year, before his rookie deal expired, it seems pretty clear that yes, they did entertain the thought. Renegotiating with two years left is less common, but it still happens (e.g. Mark Sanchez, last week). Teams do it, obviously, because they want to lock the player in and create certainty. Even if we just go back to the deal offered last year, the basic logic is the same: The deal was something on the order of 5 yrs, 35 mil, 15mil guaranteed. Competently managed, that’s financial security for life. Instead, he chose to play out his rookie deal, risking devastating injury. Now he’ll be franchised (which was predictable), and spend another season risking devastating injury. Assuming he stays healthy, he may find that he finally gets a huge deal in 2013 … or he may find out that the offers are still more or less in the neighborhood of what he was offered last year. If so, he’s gained nothing (roughly speaking, the last year of rookie deal + one year under franchise tag = the first two years of the Bears offer last year), and he’s moved the date of his next possible free agency back two years. If stays healthy and gets a $7 million per year deal next season, it’ll all have been a success. But if I were his agent, that’s not the route I’d advise. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/663 "2012-03-26T15:19:29Z")
So the more I think about it, the more I think the Browns are going to go Trent Richardson. The way they refused to sign Hillis for almost nothing, had no interest in Tolbert or Bush, etc. How much should this annoy me? That is to say - how good is he? The fungible nature of the RB position means I’d never want to draft any of them top 5 unless they were basically Tomlinson level prospects. He’s the only one I can think of that would justify it. Possibly AP. How does Richardson compare as a prospect? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/664 "2012-03-26T15:27:55Z")
Tomlinson wasn’t even _that_ good a prospect. He came from a relatively small program and didn’t go until the fifth pick, remember. I’m not impressed by Richardson. The numbers don’t lie, and his aren’t spectacular. Granted, it’s the SEC, where every defender could walk into an NFL backup job, but meh. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/665 "2012-03-26T15:44:03Z")
For what it’s worth (which should not be much), he passes my eyeball test, though not to the degree that someone like Adrian Peterson did. Seems like a lot of good-not-great qualities: fast, without having true breakaway speed; powerful enough to push back a DB but probably not a LB; agile, but not the type to juke defenders out of their shoes. The only trait of his that really leapt out at me is his shiftiness: he seems really good at making little moves that screw up a defender’s angle of attack, allowing him to gain an extra couple yards after contact, or possibly slip the tackle entirely. I think he’ll be a very good RB, but, like you, I’d never want my team drafting one so high, no matter how great their need, unless it was an _uber_-elite prospect, which Richardson isn’t. I’d be pretty pissed in your shoes. [NB: I only saw a couple Alabama games last year, and I’m likely no better than most fans as a scout, so I could be way off base.] ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/666 "2012-03-26T15:55:14Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > So the more I think about it, the more I think the Browns are going to go Trent Richardson. The way they refused to sign Hillis for almost nothing, had no interest in Tolbert or Bush, etc. > > How much should this annoy me? That is to say - how good is he? The fungible nature of the RB position means I’d never want to draft any of them top 5 unless they were basically Tomlinson level prospects. He’s the only one I can think of that would justify it. Possibly AP. How does Richardson compare as a prospect? I really like him. He was very productive despite every team knowing he was pretty much the only weapon on the Alabama team. LSU was one of the best defensive teams in college football in a long time, and Richardson had pretty good numbers against them, despite there being 8 and 9 in the box. To my mind, he’s the complete package. He’s strong enough to get the tough yards between the tackles, yet fast enough to break outside. He’s got pretty good hands, and is a strong, willing, and (mostly) successful blocker in pass protection. He split time with Mark Ingram for two years, so he’s not horribly high mileage. He may not be the brightest guy in the room, but he is the prototype 3 down back who you should be able to ride. The biggest issue I see is that he’s missed both the combine and his pro day due to recovery from supposedly minor surgery. If he checks out medically and can work out for teams, I don’t think that’s a huge problem. I really like Richardson’s chance of big time success in the NFL. I think he can be a MJD kind of running back who carries a franchise. I think he’s worth a top 5 pick. There is a huge drop from Richardson to the next best RB in the draft, and I’m not all that impressed with Blackmon, so it would be Richardson or Clairborne for me. With the QB the Browns have, the offense they run, and nobody else wowing me after Kalil, Richardson would get my vote. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/667 "2012-03-26T15:55:28Z")
I think Richardson will be a beast in the NFL but I share your concern drafting him so high in the first round too. Whatever happened to Hardesty? Didn’t he get hurt last season? Do the Browns even know what they’ve got with him? ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/668 "2012-03-26T16:36:51Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > He was very productive despite every team knowing he was pretty much the only weapon on the Alabama team. This. 5.9 per carry is not overwhelming, but it’s not bad at all considering his team, their style of play, and their conference. He may not be a superstar – that’s unpredictable – but he seems a fairly safe choice. Though if I were the Browns, I’d trade down from #4. They need a RB, but they need a lot; this would be a great year to add multiple picks. ---
**Author:** ![Cumbrian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce7236/32.png) [@Cumbrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cumbrian)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/669 "2012-03-26T16:44:43Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Though if I were the Browns, I’d trade down from #4. They need a RB, but they need a lot; this would be a great year to add multiple picks. I think I agree. Maybe they should try and trade down for someone’s #1 next year to try and accumulate ammo for a run at Matt Barkley if he looks like he is going to be any good but if not, there are other areas to strengthen right now. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/670 "2012-03-26T16:55:20Z")
Who is left to trade with? The only players I see anyone trading up for significantly are Matt Kalil and Morris Claiborne, and the latter just underwent wrist surgery. ---
**Author:** ![Cumbrian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce7236/32.png) [@Cumbrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cumbrian)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/671 "2012-03-26T17:07:38Z")
Don’t know - they may need to try and do it on the day of the draft, in the hope that someone panics and pulls the trigger on a trade to get “their” target. There are a few teams in the market for a tackle though, so Kalil might well be the guy on whom they focus their trade talks. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/672 "2012-03-26T17:18:07Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Tomlinson wasn’t even _that_ good a prospect. He came from a relatively small program and didn’t go until the fifth pick, remember. > > I’m not impressed by Richardson. The numbers don’t lie, and his aren’t spectacular. Granted, it’s the SEC, where every defender could walk into an NFL backup job, but meh. > [@VarlosZ](#): > > For what it’s worth (which should not be much), he passes my eyeball test, though not to the degree that someone like Adrian Peterson did. > > Seems like a lot of good-not-great qualities: fast, without having true breakaway speed; powerful enough to push back a DB but probably not a LB; agile, but not the type to juke defenders out of their shoes. The only trait of his that really leapt out at me is his shiftiness: he seems really good at making little moves that screw up a defender’s angle of attack, allowing him to gain an extra couple yards after contact, or possibly slip the tackle entirely. > > I think he’ll be a very good RB, but, like you, I’d never want my team drafting one so high, no matter how great their need, unless it was an _uber_-elite prospect, which Richardson isn’t. I’d be pretty pissed in your shoes. > > [NB: I only saw a couple Alabama games last year, and I’m likely no better than most fans as a scout, so I could be way off base.] I’ve had a pretty good track record when it comes to scouting backs out of college. The guys I clearly recall absolutely leaping off the screen as college prospects were Marshall Faulk, LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden and Frank Gore before his injury. I distinctly recall being outraged that the Garrison Hearst won the Heisman and that the Bears weren’t going to get LDT in the draft. When I see Richardson I just see a guy. I hear the argument that he was productive under difficult circumstances and the scouts all seem to be in the tank for him, usually he gets the “best back since Adrian Peterson” label. However, I’m not seeing it. Richardson could very will be Cedric Benson, Mark Ingram or Rashard Mendenhall, but he simply isn’t explosive or dynamic enough to be a focal point of an offense. I’m not sure I’d pass on him simply because he’s a RB and the pick is too high, RBs tend to be reasonably safe picks (barring injury) and usually are more productive faster than almost any other position. That’s pretty much exactly what you want out of a high pick, QBs and WRs have more upside but are far more of a crapshoot. If the Browns see Richardson as the best player available at a position of great need, you take him regardless. However you simply have to brace yourself for the fact that the 4th pick is just a bad spot to be in in this draft, just like the 7th or 8th pick is a bad spot this year due to the drop off to the 3rd tier. If I’m the Browns I think I’d be happier with Richardson than Blackmon or Claiborne. > [@furt](#): > > This. 5.9 per carry is not overwhelming, but it’s not bad at all considering his team, their style of play, and their conference. He may not be a superstar – that’s unpredictable – but he seems a fairly safe choice. > > Though if I were the Browns, I’d trade down from #4. They need a RB, but they need a lot; this would be a great year to add multiple picks. > [@Cumbrian](#): > > I think I agree. Maybe they should try and trade down for someone’s #1 next year to try and accumulate ammo for a run at Matt Barkley if he looks like he is going to be any good but if not, there are other areas to strengthen right now. Trading would probably be ideal for them but as always it’s going to take someone being extremely eager to get one of Richardson, Blackmon or Claiborne. Maybe the Jags at 7 targeting Blackmon, maybe the Chiefs at 11 to get Claiborne, maybe the Dolphins at 9 to get Tannehill or Blackmon. Maybe the Bucs would move up to get Richardson if they think the Browns are after him. All those teams might be wary of giving up much, but if the Browns price is modest a deal could be done. Of course the Browns would have to feel really good about 2 or 3 players they could get around the 10th spot before they did that. No point in moving back if you hate the options in that 3rd tier more than you hate the options in the 2nd tier. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/673 "2012-03-26T18:00:36Z")
I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see Miami trade up to 3 to grab Tannehill, allowing the Browns to auction off Kahlil, otherwise a trade down seems unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/674 "2012-03-26T18:03:27Z")
> [@furt](#): > > This. 5.9 per carry is not overwhelming, As mainly an NFL guy, that’s a phrase I would never expect to see from someone who wasn’t an idiot. College can be so weird sometimes… ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/675 "2012-03-26T18:07:03Z")
The rookie salary scale makes me feel better about whomever the Browns draft if they keep the #4. Going by last year’s contracts, they’ll be on the hook for $16-20 million guaranteed for 4 years. So if they take Richardson and he turns out to be merely above average, it won’t be too painful. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/676 "2012-03-26T18:14:26Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see Miami trade up to 3 to grab Tannehill, allowing the Browns to auction off Kahlil, otherwise a trade down seems unlikely. The logic being that the Browns might target Tannehill at 4? I haven’t heard that speculation yet, though if Tannehill really is the clear cut 3rd best QB and a guy with elite upside (I’ve not seen enough to know yet) I guess it’s defensible. Is that why the Browns were so half-hearted in their pursuit of RG3? Unless there’s a strong momentum in the news that Tannehill is the Browns guy, I don’t see this happening and frankly we’re not clear that Tannehill is the Phins’ guy either. I’d think the odds are better than the Dolphins propose a trade with the Browns to get him in order to prevent the Jags or Chiefs going up to get him. ETA: I think the Vikes are every bit as locked in on Kalil as the Colts and Redskins are on their guys. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/677 "2012-03-26T18:58:37Z")
Plenty of Mocks have Tannehill going #4 so there’s some noise. The Holmgren / Sherman connection is worrying. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/678 "2012-03-26T20:18:06Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > I think Richardson will be a beast in the NFL but I share your concern drafting him so high in the first round too. Whatever happened to Hardesty? Didn’t he get hurt last season? Do the Browns even know what they’ve got with him? Hardesty is always hurt. Just random nagging injuries last year, he tore his ACL again the year previous. Some people think he might be good this year due to having a full year to recover from the ACL tear, but who knows. Certainly not a guy you want to rely on as your #1. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/679 "2012-03-26T20:36:52Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Who is left to trade with? The only players I see anyone trading up for significantly are Matt Kalil and Morris Claiborne, and the latter just underwent wrist surgery. Anybody that thinks they really need one specific player to take a big step. Just looking at the market for Blackmon: Rams, Jags, Panthers, Seattle, Jets. You could make similar lists for every other prospect. They’ll get offers; it’s just a matter of how much. If I were them, I’d happily drop 5-6 spots to get a 2nd and maybe something else. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2012, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215/680 "2012-03-26T21:21:41Z")
[The NFL announced it’s 2012 compensatory picks.](http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d827e13f2/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs) The Raiders got the only 3rd rounder, most likely for losing Nnamdi. The Packers got 2 fourth rounders (Cullen Jenkins and Daryn Colledge is my guess) and 2 seventh rounders (Korey Hall, Brandon Jackson, Jason Spitz) which will give them a chance to fill their roster with more projects. I know TT loves him some draft picks, so hopefully this helps. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2012-nfl-pre-draft-discussion/612215.md?page=35)