# 2013 Road to the Oscars **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [January 7, 2014, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157 "2014-01-07T19:18:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2014, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/1 "2014-01-07T19:18:56Z")
While the ceremony is in 2014, the awards celebrate the “best” in filmmaking for those features released in 2013. And tis the season where all the films jockey for position to get the Academy’s attention (and some of the deserving films from the spring & summer try to remind said members how good they were way back when). The big contenders? Let’s look at the Guilds, which tend to align with the AMPAS choices pretty closely (though rarely 100%) BEST PICTURE (PGA nods) American Hustle Blue Jasmine Captain Phillips Dallas Buyers Club Gravity Her Nebraska Saving Mr. Banks 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street Final slate of nominees for the Oscars is between 5-10 (no set number; final based on preferential balloting) BEST DIRECTOR (\*= DGA nod; others tracking well in awards circuit) \*David O. Russell, _American Hustle_ \*Paul Greengrass, _Captain Phillips_ \*Alfonso Cuaron, _Gravity_ Spike Jonze, _Her_ Joel & Ethan Coen, _Inside Llewyn Davis_ \*Steve McQueen, _12 Years a Slave_ \*Martin Scorsese, _The Wolf of Wall Street_ BEST SCREENPLAY (WGA nods) Original _American Hustle Blue Jasmine Dallas Buyers Club Her Nebraska_ Adapted _August: Osage County Before Midnight Captain Phillips Lone Survivor The Wolf of Wall Street_ (\*note: WGA bylaws rendered _12 Years a Slave, Philomena, Fruitvale Station_ ineligible) BEST ACTOR (\*=SAG nominee; others tracking well in awards circuit) Christian Bale - “American Hustle” \*Bruce Dern – “Nebraska” \*Chiwetel Ejiofor – “12 Years a Slave” \*Tom Hanks – “Captain Phillips” Oscar Isaac - “Inside Llewyn Davis” \*Matthew McConaughey – “Dallas Buyers Club” Robert Redford - “All Is Lost” \*Forest Whitaker – “Lee Daniels’ The Butler” BEST ACTRESS \*Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine” \*Sandra Bullock – “Gravity” \*Judi Dench – “Philomena” Adèle Exarchopoulos - “Blue is the Warmest Color” Brie Larson - “Short Term 12” \*Meryl Streep – “August: Osage County” \*Emma Thompson – “Saving Mr. Banks” BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR \*Barkhad Abdi – “Captain Phillips” \*Daniel Brühl – “Rush” Bradley Cooper - “American Hustle” \*Michael Fassbender – “12 Years a Slave” James Franco - “Spring Breakers” \*James Gandolfini – “Enough Said” \*Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club” BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Scarlet Johansson - “Her” \*Jennifer Lawrence – “American Hustle” \*Lupita Nyong’o – “12 Years a Slave” \*Julia Roberts – “August: Osage County” \*June Squibb – “Nebraska” \*Oprah Winfrey – “Lee Daniels’ The Butler” But of course, plenty of other people might find their way into the final slate of 5, particularly Amy Adams, Berenice Bejo, Jonah Hill, Octavia Spencer, and Sally Hawkins. The Golden Globes are this weekend, and while not always the best predictor, they do provide the winners plenty of buzz & media momentum. Oscar nominations are announced January 16. So, what films or performances do you hope get recognized? ---
**Author:** ![Rollo\_Tomasi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/58956e/32.png) [@Rollo\_Tomasi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rollo_Tomasi)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/2 "2014-01-08T02:35:54Z")
Out of the main contenders that I’ve seen (pretty much all of them except **August: Osage County** ), **12 Years a Slave** and **Her** are my favorites. I also love **Inside Llewyn Davis** , but that seems to have lost a lot of steam lately. I originally figured that if **A Serious Man** can get some Best Picture love, then virtually any good Coen movie can, but I guess that might not happen. I really didn’t care for **Saving Mr. Banks** or **Nebraska** , but they seem to hit so many Academy sweet spots that I’m still expecting them to get Best Picture nominations. As usual, plenty of my favorite performances this year aren’t coming anywhere the Oscars (Ben Mendelsohn for **The Place Beyond the Pines** , Soren Malling for **A Hijacking** , Irit Sheleg for **Fill the Void** , etc.), but I’m used to it. There are a bunch of below-the-line nominations that I’d love to see as well, even if they’re long shots: **Ain’t Them Bodies Saints** for cinematography, **Stoker** for production design, **All is Lost** for sound, and **Side Effects** for score. I’m really hoping that some surprises break up those Best Actor and Best Actress categories. The same lineups have been popping up almost everywhere, barring a surprise here and there. (Forest Whitaker? Really?) I’d be over the moon if Joaquin Phoenix or Oscar Isaac made it into the actor category. And it looks like Amy Adams is the best bet for a surprise in Best Actress, but if Brie Larson or Adele Adèle Exarchopoulos gets nominated, that would be fantastic. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/3 "2014-01-08T03:03:52Z")
American Hustle - haven’t seen Blue Jasmine - haven’t seen Dallas Buyers Club - haven’t seen Her - haven’t seen Nebraska - haven’t seen The Wolf of Wall Street - haven’t seen. Captain Phillips - Good, but not great Saving Mr. Banks - Okay, but not really good 12 Years a Slave - Good, but not great Gravity - Okay, but not really good I predict 12 Years a Slave to win Best Picture this year, though. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/4 "2014-01-08T05:45:19Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#): > > BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR > > \*Barkhad Abdi – “Captain Phillips” > \*Daniel Brühl – “Rush” > Bradley Cooper - “American Hustle” > \*Michael Fassbender – “12 Years a Slave” > **James Franco - “Spring Breakers”** > \*James Gandolfini – “Enough Said” > \*Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club” It delights the hell out of me that Franco is even in the mix, however improbable his chances of an Oscar nomination, for his role as Alien. I never expected it. I did an astonished and disbelieving happy dance the other day when Franco won Best Supporting Actor from the National Board of Review. I literally, literally whooped out loud when I saw it. **Spring Breakers** was my favorite movie of 2013 because of Franco (and the music, and a bunch of other reasons). I expect and hope Jared Leto will get nominated and win. Everyone loves a comeback and that was a pretty great one. **Her** was my 2nd favorite movie. I would like to see Joaquin Phoenix and Spike Jonze get recognized with nominations (poor Scarlett, she deserves a nomination too). Otherwise I’m not too invested. This isn’t a year where favorites have any kind of realistic chance (like **Brokeback Mountain** , **The Social Network** or **There Will Be Blood** ) so I won’t have any stomach-churning anxiety at any point. I liked most of the rest of the movies, wish everybody well and hope all the nominees have a good time and enjoy the moments. Thank you Rollo for mentioning **Ain’t Them Bodies Saints** , Brie Larson, and Adèle Exarchopoulos. I don’t expect any of them to get nominations, but it’s nice to hear their names. Like you, I’ve seen everything except **August: Osage County** (I had a free pass but had to work late that night). I loved **Philomena** , saw it twice, and hope Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope’s screenplay is nominated for Adapted, but I don’t expect it. Judi is already a lock for a nomination which means the movie will be seen by many, and that’s all I can ask for. Best Supporting is too competitive for Coogan to be nominated, but it would be fun if it happened. I love the surprise nominations. I’ll cheer for any nomination and win **Gravity** gets just because…Alfonso Cuarón! I’m so happy for him. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/5 "2014-01-08T14:28:41Z")
It would be a remarkable for Scarlett Johannson to be nominated for a performance in a movie she never physically appears in. They didn’t nominate Andy Serkis for a role in which he actually SORT of appeared in, despite a lot of talk that he should have been. Johansson was not eligible for a Golden Globe and wasn’t nominated for a SAG. It ain’t happening. Whether that’s bad or not I don’t really know, but it’s sort of inevitable that things will seem unfair in a process that attempts to measure what really cannot be adequately measured in this manner. ---
**Author:** ![gonzoron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a6a055/32.png) [@gonzoron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzoron)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/6 "2014-01-08T14:37:54Z")
Having 3 kids under 7, I haven’t seen any of these movies, sadly. But I’m wondering what the odds are for the one movie I did see in the theaters this year: _Frozen_. I’m assuming it’s a lock for best animated movie and best song (Let it Go), and not much else (I almost typed “not much elsa” there. Can you tell my 2 young girls are obsessed with the movie? They don’t talk about much else these days). But since I haven’t seen anything else this year, I don’t know what competition it has in either category. Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Rollo\_Tomasi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/58956e/32.png) [@Rollo\_Tomasi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rollo_Tomasi)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/7 "2014-01-08T14:47:26Z")
I think those are going to be the only two categories it shows up in, but I think it’s a 100% win for original song, and 85% for animated feature. I’m only hedging on the latter because **The Wind Rises** is supposedly Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, and there will be a lot of votes thrown his way. If **Frozen** had been a financial disappointment, I think that would have hurt its chances, but it’s been such a monster smash hit that there’s no ignoring it. I don’t even know what its main competition in the song category would be. I guess “Young and Beautiful” from **The Great Gatsby**? Or “The Moon Song” from **Her**? ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/8 "2014-01-08T16:51:05Z")
I’ve only seen 5 of the 10 BP prospects in the OP’s list, unfortunately. I hate it when movies (Nebraska, Dallas Buyers Club) start out in limited release because they are not released _here_, and when they finally come months later they are easy to miss unless they have become huge hits (like _The Kings Speech_). I’m going to try to see at least one of the ones I’m missing this weekend - probably _Her_. Rant over. My favorites this year were _Blue Jasmine_ and _American Hustle_. I would love to see Sally Hawkins or Andrew Dice Clay (!) get some recognition for their supporting roles in BJ but I know it won’t happen. Amy Adams, of course, but her nomination wouldn’t exactly be out of left field. I was underwhelmed by _Gravity_ (except for the F/X and technical categories) and _12 Years a Slave._ _Saving Mr. Banks_ was okay but seems kind of lightweight and formulaic for serious BP consideration, although Emma Thompson was fun to watch. I’ve only heard bad things about _August: Ossage County_. Not many things, but bad. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2014, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/9 "2014-01-08T16:57:09Z")
> [@Rollo\_Tomasi](#): > > I think those are going to be the only two categories it shows up in, but I think it’s a 100% win for original song, and 85% for animated feature. I’m only hedging on the latter because **The Wind Rises** is supposedly Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, and there will be a lot of votes thrown his way. If **Frozen** had been a financial disappointment, I think that would have hurt its chances, but it’s been such a monster smash hit that there’s no ignoring it. Miyazaki unretired a few days ago. Frozen is a lock. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/10 "2014-01-09T02:42:51Z")
I have to correct myself because everyone else was polite enough to not correct me, like not mentioning the toilet paper stuck on my shoe. I stupidly said… > [@Equipoise](#): > > I did an astonished and disbelieving happy dance the other day when Franco won Best Supporting Actor from the National Board of Review. I literally, literally whooped out loud when I saw it. Which probably elicited a few eye-rolls from people who know better. I must have been drunk or high, which is weird because I haven’t been either drunk or high for years. Will Forte won BSA from the NBR for **Nebraska**. Franco won BSA from the _ **National Society of Film Critics** _. Still, that’s cool. He also won BSA from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the Central Ohio Film Critics Association (who had some [other pretty great winners](http://www.columbusalive.com/content/blogs/thelatest/2014/01/central-ohio-film-critics-awards-gravity-james-franco.html)!), and the San Francisco Film Critics Circle. He was nominated by the Chicago Film Critics Association, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the Washington DC Area Film Critics Association. I don’t believe for a second that he stands a chance in hell of an Oscar nomination, but the studio’s [“Consider This Shit” campaign](http://www.filmschoolrejects.com/features/james-franco-spring-breakers-for-your-consideration.php) is, well, different! And, to me, wonderful. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/11 "2014-01-09T19:49:45Z")
> [@Rollo\_Tomasi](#): > > I think those are going to be the only two categories it shows up in, but I think it’s a 100% win for original song, and 85% for animated feature. I’m only hedging on the latter because **The Wind Rises** is supposedly Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, and there will be a lot of votes thrown his way. If **Frozen** had been a financial disappointment, I think that would have hurt its chances, but it’s been such a monster smash hit that there’s no ignoring it. > > I don’t even know what its main competition in the song category would be. I guess “Young and Beautiful” from **The Great Gatsby**? Or “The Moon Song” from **Her**? Best Song has become much more unpredictable now that the Music Branch has become much more rigorous about how an Original Song must contribute to the story or theme of the film in a significant way, instead of just being tacked onto the closing credits. That said, it’s hard to imagine “Let It Go” not winning–it’s the best song in a Disney film in almost two decades, and is exactly the kind of character-driven show-stopper that a memorable musical requires. I’d say 85% for **Frozen** and Animated Feature sounds about right (if a little low). Most of the other high-profile American submissions were pretty weak tea (especially Pixar’s) and Miyazaki may be a legend, but _Wind_ is a more sober and less playful entry than what won for him before (and that was against considerably weaker competition). ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/12 "2014-01-09T20:09:08Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > I have to correct myself because everyone else was polite enough to not correct me, like not mentioning the toilet paper stuck on my shoe. I stupidly said… > > Which probably elicited a few eye-rolls from people who know better. I must have been drunk or high, which is weird because I haven’t been either drunk or high for years. Will Forte won BSA from the NBR for **Nebraska**. Franco won BSA from the _ **National Society of Film Critics** _. NSFC has always been my favorite of the critics’ groups, so I enjoyed their choices, and though I haven’t seen _Spring Breakers_ yet, I’m looking forward to it when I get a chance. A shame that Forte didn’t appear to get much traction from NBR. _Nebraska_ remains my favorite film of the year, and he’s quite wonderful. The Academy often is OK with coattailing a supporting performance off a lead’s or ensemble’s when it wasn’t otherwise getting much award attention (Maggie Gyllenhall & Jacki Weaver being recent examples), so there’s a little hope for Hawkins, Forte, and Coogan from this Boost-by-Association, but I suspect you’re right about Franco. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/13 "2014-01-09T20:16:28Z")
> [@Skammer](#): > > I’ve only heard bad things about _August: Ossage County_. Not many things, but bad. I think it’s quite overwrought, but Streep is almost always a Free Space on the Oscar bingo board. Julia will likely benefit from category misalignment (she’s really a co-lead, as the Tonys rightfully reflected) and make the cut. Very probably Adapted Screenplay too, because of its Pulitzer pedigree and that Tracy Letts did her own adapting, winnowing her 3.5-hour play down to 2. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/14 "2014-01-09T20:42:31Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#): > > I think it’s quite overwrought, but Streep is almost always a Free Space on the Oscar bingo board. Julia will likely benefit from category misalignment (she’s really a co-lead, as the Tonys rightfully reflected) and make the cut. Very probably Adapted Screenplay too, because of its Pulitzer pedigree and that Tracy Letts did her own adapting, winnowing her 3.5-hour play down to 2. Tracy Letts is a man. And on that note, MAN I’ve heard that August: Osage County is a piece of shit. I suppose that’s not entirely fair, but a lot of critics do not like it: > **[August: Osage County - Movie Reviews](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/august_osage_county/reviews?type=top_critics)** > > Rotten Tomatoes, home of the Tomatometer, is the most trusted measurement of quality for Movies & TV. The definitive site for Reviews, Trailers, Showtimes, and Tickets ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/15 "2014-01-09T20:50:02Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Tracy Letts is a man. And on that note, MAN I’ve heard that August: Osage County is a piece of shit. I suppose that’s not entirely fair, but a lot of critics do not like it: > > [August: Osage County - Movie Reviews | Rotten Tomatoes](http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/august_osage_county/reviews/?type=top_critics) Oops! My bad! I saw the show on Broadway and it has so many strong, interesting female characters that I (wrongly) assumed based on the name. And although I liked the play a lot, I wish I could remember more of what happened, since I can’t say with any certainty what got cut from stage to screen (certainly, the main story and dynamics remain intact). ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/16 "2014-01-09T21:29:22Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#): > > Oops! My bad! I saw the show on Broadway and it has so many strong, interesting female characters that I (wrongly) assumed based on the name. > > And although I liked the play a lot, I wish I could remember more of what happened, since I can’t say with any certainty what got cut from stage to screen (certainly, the main story and dynamics remain intact). Interestingly enough, I saw on Twitter a while back that Letts played the bartender in the premiere of Steve Martin’s play _Picasso at the Lapin Agile_. He had told Martin then that he was writing a play, too. That’s how I figured out Letts was a man, as I was in a community theatre production of _PatLA_ (“Schmendiman!”) and the bartender is written as a male part (not that you couldn’t change it, I suppose, but this was the premiere, after all). Sorry not to add much to the movie discussion. I enjoyed _Gravity_ very much, especially the effects, and I thought Bullock was fantastic. Similarly Thompson in _Saving Mr. Banks_, just a great performance. _Frozen_ was great, and I share the love for “Let It Go.” I haven’t seen much else of what’s on the awards radar (I didn’t really think _American Hustle_ was all that, although I enjoyed the performances), as this has been a down year for me seeing many movies. ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/17 "2014-01-09T21:31:46Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#): > > And although I liked the play a lot, I wish I could remember more of what happened, since I can’t say with any certainty what got cut from stage to screen ( **certainly, the main story and dynamics remain intact** ). I haven’t seen the movie yet (I did see a local production of the play a few months ago), but didn’t the movie add a scene at the end that basically reversed or at least softened the play’s ending? I saw something about that in the review in today’s local paper. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/18 "2014-01-09T21:57:03Z")
> [@Uncle\_Jocko](#): > > I haven’t seen the movie yet (I did see a local production of the play a few months ago), but didn’t the movie add a scene at the end that basically reversed or at least softened the play’s ending? I saw something about that in the review in today’s local paper. Yes, that beautiful and haunting tableau on the staircase is not the last scene of the film. In the film, we return to Barbara who has taken off in her pick-up truck. She gets out, wanders around, and then shows a small smile on her face, as if she has resolved things for herself somehow. No dialogue, but an artificial shot of optimism that I found unnecessary and unconvincing. Given that Barbara is played by Julia Roberts, I wonder if this was some kind of concession to her star power ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2014, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/19 "2014-01-09T22:56:51Z")
Of the movies I have seen, I would rank them thusly: 1. American Hustle 2. Dallas Buyer’s Club 3. Nebraska 4. Inside Llewyn Davis 5. Mud (This movie should be getting more attention) 6. The Wolf of Wall Street 7. 12 Years a Slave 8. The Way Way Back (Also should be getting more attention) 9. Side Effects 10. Before Midnight 11. Philomena 12. Don Jon 13. Out of the Furnace 14. Captain Phillips 15. The Place Beyond the Pines 16. Fruitvale Station I know **We’re the Millers** isn’t Oscar material, but it was the funniest movie I saw this year, so I mention that here. If I were being honest and not thinking about Oscar-worthiness, I would put it in my top 5. I have not yet seen Blue Jasmine, Gravity, August: Osage County, or Her. The best documentaries I’ve seen this year are **Muscle Shoals** and **20 Feet from Stardom**. Muscle Shoals was by turns funny, inspirational, sad, and nostalgic. It is very much worthy of a Best Documentary win. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2014, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157/20 "2014-01-10T03:12:29Z")
The only one I’ve seen is **Gravity** - as usual I’m avoiding seeing any really good movies during the year, in the hope that I’ll get to see most of them over two weekends in the AMC Best Picture Show. That said, while I think\*\* 12 Years a Slave \*\*was the early front runner, **Gravity** has a lot of popular support. It’s also not always clear that a difficult-to-watch film is going to do well. Rollo, \*\*Inside Llewyn Davis \*\*did do very well at the NSFC earlier this week, so it’s not completely dead. Finally, my guess is that the new-ish balloting process assures that any film you see listed more than three times above is going to end up nominated for best picture. Will be interesting to see whether this rich field produces 10 nominees, or whether the mathematics more or less guaranteed nine. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2013-road-to-the-oscars/678157.md?page=2)