# 2014-15 Oscar nominations **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [January 15, 2015, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890 "2015-01-15T14:18:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/41 "2015-01-15T19:59:31Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > _Selma_ pushes a number of best picture buttons. It’s a drama, which is almost always what wins. It’s a biography. It’s a historical movie about an issue that the voters like. > > And the fact that it got so few nominations could end up working in its favor. There’ll be no vote splitting among several categories. People who want to vote for _Selma_ won’t be able to vote for David Oyelowo or Ava DuVernay or Paul Webb or Carmen Ejogo or Tom Wilkinson. They either have to cast a vote for best picture or not vote for the movie at all. (I don’t feel best song will be seen as a vote for the movie.) > > It also was nominated for the best picture Golden Globe but didn’t win (_Boyhood_ won). I don’t know if it’s because the Oscar voters snub the Golden Globe voters or if it’s because they like to spread out the awards but the movie that wins the Golden Globe usually doesn’t go on to win the Oscar. Not true–it’s actually about 2/3 of the time (though the odds improve because they have two categories). In the last 20 years, 10 of the GG Drama winners went on to win the Oscar, 3 of the Musical/Comedy ones. While it may be true that _Selma_’s eggs are all in one basket, it is a real long shot for it to win the big prize. In fact, the last time a film with so few nods won everything was back in 1932. The only glimmer of a hope that _Selma_ has is the ranked balloting. If it scores enough 2nd place votes, along with whatever first place ones it takes, that might diffuse the weight of the _Boyhood/Birdman/Imitation_ trio who are the main contenders–but the math would have to be perfectly aligned in its favor, with no margin for error. Which means the odds are slimmer than slim. It will probably have to settle for the Song Oscar (which was a beautifully expressed acceptance speech if you saw the Globes). ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/42 "2015-01-15T20:05:45Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > _Selma_ pushes a number of best picture buttons. It’s a drama, which is almost always what wins. It’s a biography. It’s a historical movie about an issue that the voters like. > > And the fact that it got so few nominations could end up working in its favor. There’ll be no vote splitting among several categories. People who want to vote for _Selma_ won’t be able to vote for David Oyelowo or Ava DuVernay or Paul Webb or Carmen Ejogo or Tom Wilkinson. They either have to cast a vote for best picture or not vote for the movie at all. (I don’t feel best song will be seen as a vote for the movie.) Not gonna happen. It’s not going to win with just two nominations, it will have to make do with just being nominated and the likely win for Best Song. It’ll be between Boyhood & Birdman, possibly Grand Budapest Hotel. > [@](#): > > It also was nominated for the best picture Golden Globe but didn’t win (_Boyhood_ won). I don’t know if it’s because the Oscar voters snub the Golden Globe voters or if it’s because they like to spread out the awards but the movie that wins the Golden Globe usually doesn’t go on to win the Oscar. Actually it’s the exact opposite. The film that wins Best Picture at the Globe often goes on to win the Oscar as well. ---
**Author:** ![woodstockbirdybird](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/woodstockbirdybird/32/7905_2.png) [@woodstockbirdybird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/woodstockbirdybird)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/43 "2015-01-15T20:46:07Z")
> [@Eddie\_F](#): > > Mark my words: _Boyhood_ will win Best Picture in a walk. My prediction as well. And Patricia Arquette should get best supporting actress. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/44 "2015-01-15T21:04:49Z")
Yeah, I hate to reveal my guess since we have the big Oscar Pool on the Dope coming up, but I think Boyhood has it locked. Other races will be tough, but that one is kind of over. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/45 "2015-01-15T22:33:51Z")
I don’t get the love for\* The Lego Movie\*. It was pretty bad. The theme was all over the place and the “acting” was 3rd rate. The _Everything is Awesome_ song typifies it. A deliberately crappy song is the most memorable thing about it. And yet it gets a nom. The voters are clearly not in on the joke. The best song category is a complete embarrassment almost every single year. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/46 "2015-01-15T22:57:27Z")
[Al Sharpton wants to lead a protest about the lack of diversity among this years acting nominees](http://www.businessinsider.com/al-sharpton-blasts-appalling-oscars-2015-1). ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/47 "2015-01-15T23:06:53Z")
I’d be happy with either **The Grand Budapest Hotel** or **Boyhood** for Best Picture. As for the **LEGO Movie** not getting nominated, I think it’s a mistake. Sometimes I wonder what the category is focusing on: A great film that’s animated or just A great work of animation. IMO, the LEGO movie was both, but not in the traditionally expected ways. Which is what elevates it in that category even more-so. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/48 "2015-01-15T23:20:11Z")
[Chaz Ebert’s statement](http://www.rogerebert.com/chazs-blog/chaz-eberts-statement-on-todays-oscar-nominations) on Life Itself not being nominated. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/49 "2015-01-15T23:25:58Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > The ONLY category in which I’d make a cash bet is Best Song- never mind whether it’s a GOOD song, the heartbreaking story behind Glen Campbell’s “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” cinches the Oscar for him. I think “Selma” wins because 1-it’s a great song and 2- **Selma** isn’t going to win Best Picture. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/50 "2015-01-16T03:39:35Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > **Boyhood** was an interesting idea for a movie, and it was fascinating to watch, but there really just wasn’t much story there. I liked it a lot, but **it’s not a movie that would bear repeat viewings.** I had the opposite reaction. I saw it twice and it was much better the 2nd time. I liked it a lot the first time, but I didn’t know what was going to happen. I hadn’t read any reviews or articles and didn’t know if there was going to be a major “PLOT POINT” that would kick in and change the tone of the movie completely. Once I knew what to expect I could relax and bask in the moments, the gentle rhythms and the transformations of the characters (and actors) over the years. It’s a lovely little movie, where nothing major happens, but there’s nothing wrong with that. Just like most people’s lives, it’s in the moments, and I liked getting to know these people, being part of slices of their lives, and I’d see the movie again just to be with them again for a while. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > My predictions: > > Selma > Linklater > Moore > Keaton > Knightley > Simmons Mine: Boyhood Linklater Moore Keaton Arquette Simmons I think the mortal locks are Moore, Arquette and Simmons. If you’re betting, I’d switch out Knightley for Arquette. People do love the movie, and her character, and her. Not that that’s not true of Knightley, but much moreso for Arquette. Arquette has so many friends in the Academy, and her character represents so many single mothers the world over, just trying to better themselves and raise her kids to be decent people. I think, hope, that will touch a nerve with voters. Even though she won’t win, I’m very happy Laura Dern was nominated for Wild. That was a surprise, a very nice one. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/51 "2015-01-16T04:34:56Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Mine: > > Boyhood > Linklater > Moore > Keaton > Arquette > Simmons > > I think the mortal locks are Moore, Arquette and Simmons. Definitely agree with those locks. The only category I’m iffy on is Best Director, as it could go to Innaritu. But I think right now Linklater is in the lead. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/52 "2015-01-16T05:00:44Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > I think the mortal locks are Moore, Arquette and Simmons. If you’re betting, I’d switch out Knightley for Arquette. People do love the movie, and her character, and her. Not that that’s not true of Knightley, but much moreso for Arquette. Arquette has so many friends in the Academy, and her character represents so many single mothers the world over, just trying to better themselves and raise her kids to be decent people. I think, hope, that will touch a nerve with voters. > > Even though she won’t win, I’m very happy Laura Dern was nominated for Wild. That was a surprise, a very nice one. Knightley’s my weakest pick in terms of certainty. I picked her because I picked all the other major categories so I felt I had to pick best supporting actress as well. I feel she’s Oscar-worthy and her chances are as good as anyone else’s but not noticeably better. I agree that Moore’s my strongest lock. That’s the one I’d put money on if I was betting. She’s overdue for an Oscar and the competition is relatively weak in comparison to her. I’d say the same about Keaton but I feel that there’s a chance Cumberbatch might sneak in. I’ve already said why I think _Selma_ will win best picture. And _Selma_’s win is why I picked Linklater. I think he’ll get best director as acknowledgement of the job he did in _Boyhood_. I best supporting actor, I feel the voters will figure Hawke, Norton, and Ruffalo have bigger roles ahead of them. Duvall’s won the Oscar and _The Judge_ was not a particularly strong film. So they’ll vote for Simmons because he’s had a solid career and he’s due. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/53 "2015-01-16T05:02:35Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’d say the same about Keaton but I feel that there’s a chance Cumberbatch might sneak in. I think Redmayne is a bigger challenge to Keaton than Cumberbatch. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/54 "2015-01-16T07:57:15Z")
I don’t know. After Redmayne’s Golden Globe win, which surprised the hell out of me (probably because I’m biased against Redmayne and for Cumberbatch), nothing would surprise me. But Keaton won too, just in a different category. Not that the Globes have much bearing on the Oscars. Still, people love triumphant comebacks, and Keaton is a poster boy for comebacks right now. I don’t have a dog in the fight since Jake G wasn’t nominated (_sob_) but I’d bet it all on Keaton. Little Nemo, Arquette’s won just about every award so far, with three biggies still to come. If Knightley won the Screen Actors Guild I’d say there’s a race, but Arquette will win that one too. If Arquette wins the BAFTA (the British Oscars) it really is all over for Knightley, because a lot of the Brits are Academy members too. She might not win the Independent Spirit Award, but she’s not up against Knightley either (Spirits are for American movies). They might go for Jessica Chastain or Carmen Ejogo (terrific as Coretta Scott King in Selma). Even without those three still to come, Arquette is Seabiscut, even at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Namkcalb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c89c15/32.png) [@Namkcalb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Namkcalb)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/55 "2015-01-16T09:12:46Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Knightley’s my weakest pick in terms of certainty. I picked her because I picked all the other major categories so I felt I had to pick best supporting actress as well. I feel she’s Oscar-worthy and her chances are as good as anyone else’s but not noticeably better. . I hope she doesn’t win, if they both have oscars, then Knightley and Portman will be impossible to tell apart. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/56 "2015-01-16T18:06:43Z")
> [@Namkcalb](#): > > I hope she doesn’t win, if they both have oscars, then Knightley and Portman will be impossible to tell apart. That’s how you fool the Sith lords! ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/57 "2015-01-16T21:53:24Z")
I haven’t seen any of these movies, but I often make accurate predictions based on the category and the TYPES of people nominated. Best Supporting Actor is a category in which the Academy likes to honor older, veteran actors, whether they deserve it or not. It’s frequently a sort of lifetime achievement award. So, my hunch is that JK Simmons will win (Duvall already has an Oscar, and \*\*\*The Judge \*\*\*wasn’t very good). Best SUpporting Actress, on the other hand, tends to go to young starlets… which favors Emma Stone and Keira Knightley. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/58 "2015-01-17T01:10:32Z")
Simmons will win because he deserves to win. Bet a lot of money on Stone or Knightley. Then come back and tell us how much you lost. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/59 "2015-01-17T01:17:09Z")
I didn’t mean that as snarky as it came out. Add a _smile_ at the end there. I’m in the theater waiting for Inherent Vice to start, using a very small keyboard. ---
**Author:** ![woodstockbirdybird](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/woodstockbirdybird/32/7905_2.png) [@woodstockbirdybird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/woodstockbirdybird)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2015, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890/60 "2015-01-17T01:21:30Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > I haven’t seen any of these movies, but I often make accurate predictions based on the category and the TYPES of people nominated. > > Best Supporting Actor is a category in which the Academy likes to honor older, veteran actors, whether they deserve it or not. It’s frequently a sort of lifetime achievement award. So, my hunch is that JK Simmons will win (Duvall already has an Oscar, and \*\*\*The Judge \*\*\*wasn’t very good). > > Best SUpporting Actress, on the other hand, tends to go to young starlets… which favors Emma Stone and Keira Knightley. I’d be willing to bet money Arquette wins it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-15-oscar-nominations/709890.md?page=4)