# 2014 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [November 26, 2013, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859 "2013-11-26T21:04:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![markdash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2013, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/181 "2013-12-29T18:21:38Z")
> [@Yookeroo](#): > > Yes. How does Bill James himself not have a vote? Or someone like Vin Scully? Or Voros McCracken? Or some of those SABR historians? You’ll find very few, if any, BBWAA members more qualified to have a Hall of Fame opinion than these people. Why do the writers have a stranglehold on this door to the Hall? Well, James is an employee of the Boston Red Sox, and I wouldn’t be surprised if team-affiliated people aren’t allowed to have votes. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/182 "2013-12-30T00:25:26Z")
> [@markdash](#): > > Well, James is an employee of the Boston Red Sox, and I wouldn’t be surprised if team-affiliated people aren’t allowed to have votes. That’s not the case, I don’t believe, but even if it is, the point surely stands? Giving the vote to the BBWAA just doesn’t seem terribly logical to me; it was kind of a convenient choice at the time, but we’re long past the point where they could strike a balanced committee of experts from many fields and types of involvement with baseball. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/183 "2013-12-30T14:56:33Z")
64 ballots currently (Yookeroo’s link is much better than mine, unless you want to see individual votes): 100 - Maddux 98.4 - Glavine 87.5 - F. Thomas 81.3 - Biggio ——————————— 70.3 - Piazza 65.6 - Jack (The Jack) Morris 62.5 - Bagwell 53.1 - Raines 43.8 - Schilling 43.8 - Bonds 43.8 - Clemens 31.3 - Mussina 25.0 - L. Smith 21.9 - Trammell 18.8 - McGriff 15.6 - E. Martinez 14.0 - Kent 10.9 - McGwire 9.4 - R. Palmeiro 7.8 - L. Walker 6.3 - S. Sosa ——————————— 3.1 - Mattingly ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/184 "2013-12-30T15:38:58Z")
It is a travesty that Mike Piazza might not make it in AGAIN! ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/185 "2013-12-30T15:49:16Z")
I agree, but if the released ballots are representative, and he’s over 70%, at least he’s likely a lock for next year. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/186 "2013-12-30T16:21:25Z")
For the sake of discussion, here’s next year’s ballot, along with the number of years they’ll have been on (assuming that everyone this year hits 5%, which is unlikely). Wow - I guess I didn’t realize McGwire’s been on so long! Don Mattingly 15th Alan Trammell 14th Lee Smith 13th Mark McGwire 9th Tim Raines 8th Edgar Martinez 6th Fred McGriff 6th Jeff Bagwell 5th Larry Walker 5th Rafael Palmeiro 5th Craig Biggio 3rd Mike Piazza 3rd Curt Schilling 3rd Roger Clemens 3rd Barry Bonds 3rd Sammy Sosa 3rd Greg Maddux 2nd Frank Thomas 2nd Mike Mussina 2nd Tom Glavine 2nd Jeff Kent 2nd Kenny Rogers 2nd Luis Gonzalez 2nd Moises Alou 2nd Ray Durham 2nd Shannon Stewart 2nd Esteban Loaiza 2nd Jon Lieber 2nd Hideo Nomo 2nd Geoff Jenkins 2nd Keith Foulke 2nd Matt Morris 2nd Jose Vidro 2nd Richie Sexson 2nd Paul Lo Duca 2nd Armando Benitez 2nd Mike Timlin 2nd Sean Casey 2nd Dmitri Young 2nd Eric Gagne 2nd Shawn Estes 2nd J.T. Snow 2nd Todd Jones 2nd Joe Borowski 2nd Randy Johnson 1st Pedro Martinez 1st John Smoltz 1st Gary Sheffield 1st Brian Giles 1st Nomar Garciaparra 1st Carlos Delgado 1st Darin Erstad 1st Tom Gordon 1st Jason Schmidt 1st Jarrod Washburn 1st Cliff Floyd 1st Kelvim Escobar 1st Jermaine Dye 1st Mark Loretta 1st Rich Aurilia 1st Troy Percival 1st Paul Byrd 1st Joe Crede 1st Tony Clark 1st B.J. Ryan 1st Eddie Guardado 1st David Weathers 1st Braden Looper 1st Julian Tavarez 1st Alan Embree 1st Ron Villone 1st Ton of interesting names on there - Randy, Pedro and Smoltz are shoe-ins, IMO. So’s Sheffield. But what about guys like Nomar, Delgado and Giles? ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/187 "2013-12-30T16:44:37Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > Ton of interesting names on there - Randy, Pedro and Smoltz are shoe-ins, IMO. So’s Sheffield. But what about guys like Nomar, Delgado and Giles? Sheffield has steroid taint. He’s not getting in on the 1st ballot. And holy crap, Mike Piazza retired two whole years before Gary Sheffield? I completely forget he played that long. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/188 "2013-12-30T17:01:26Z")
Piazza is _so_ close in our poll. I wonder if you get rid of some of the head-scratcher votes, whether that bumps him over 75%? The list of 2015 potential inductees is interesting. Martinez is one of the easiest “He’s in” votes I can think of, and Johnson’s not too far behind. I think Nomahhhhh! Brian Giles, and Carlos Delgado are members of the Hall of the Very Good. But what do we think of [Sheffield](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml) and [Smoltz](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoltjo01.shtml)? .292/.393/.514, with a 140 OPS+ and 509 HR make me say, HoFer, but I think there are some people on our ballot who should get in ahead of him. Aren’t Smoltz’s WHIP and ERA+ numbers helped out a bit by his four years closing? He does have 66.5 WAR, ahead of guys like [Bob Feller](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fellebo01.shtml), but then again, that’s behind [Kevin Brown](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brownke01.shtml) (already dropped off the HoF ballot) and [Rick Reuschel](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reuscri01.shtml) (ditto). So I’m a bit lost. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/189 "2013-12-30T17:30:48Z")
I’d have to say that Smoltz’ ability to dominate in either role works \*for \*him, like it did for Eckersley. Smoltz is in even without his closing years, and Eck would be in without his starting years, sure. [Dan Shaughnessy](http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/12/29/time-cast-his-votes-for-baseball-hall-fame/ojPVH3NSylmZg1vJAGW6fJ/story.html), one of the biggest jerks ever to have a long-time reporting gig, shows some of the perversity behind some ballots: > [@](#): > > I consider a vote for Schill a demonstration that BBWAA members do not use the ballot to settle scores. Sometimes I think I vote for him \*because \*I can’t stand him. > [@](#): > > Nobody thinks Glavine or Maddux cheated. That’s probably because of their body types. Glavine looked athletic, but nothing out of the ordinary. Maddux looked like he played slow-pitch softball. He should be unanimous. But, of course, he won’t be unanimous. > > Thomas had a Popeye body, but was never suspected of being a ’roids guy. Lucky him. > > This is where we go off the rails. Like Thomas, guys such as Piazza and Bagwell have Hall of Fame numbers and never tested positive for PEDs. But they look dirty. Something doesn’t make sense. Thomas makes sense. Thomas had a roid-looking body. So did Piazza. Palmeiro didn’t. So, if you’re going to use that standard, at least pretend to be consistent about it. :rolleyes: > [@](#): > > Not voting for Raines and Martinez also feels totally unfair. I just never thought of them as Hall of Famers. They fail the “I know it when I see it” test. I suspect he’s more typical than not. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/190 "2013-12-30T18:24:37Z")
I think as this backlog of Raineses and Bondses and Schillings grows we’re starting to see what the Hall of Fame is going to be going forward. The only guys who will get in without hiccups are the ones who match some magical Venn diagram at the intersection of incredibly great performance and vaguely clean and/or unobjectionable character. Everybody else goes into the queue and just has to hope for some kind of inexplicable winning coalition to form, and success or failure will depend entirely on weird conversational inertia based on something other than how good they did on baseball fields. At some point the taint will be gone - I don’t _think_ people will say “Bryce Harper never tested positive for anything, but…” - and we’ll be left with a donut hole generation of guys who you had to be there to really accurately fail to understand why they aren’t in. So there’s that to look forward to. Bonds and Clemens, great but permanently dirty: out. Piazza and Bagwell, great but apparently vaguely dirty, probably because they had beards: out, but only for a probationary period, or maybe not? Biggio and Thomas, great and no beards: in. A Rod, permanently dirty; Jeter, no beard: in. Ryan Braun - permanently dirty? Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera - under suspicion? Andrew McCutchen: right in? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/191 "2013-12-30T22:04:10Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Aren’t Smoltz’s WHIP and ERA+ numbers helped out a bit by his four years closing? Wait, you’re asking if Smoltz’s numbers are helped by years he had good numbers? ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/192 "2013-12-30T23:08:37Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Wait, you’re asking if Smoltz’s numbers are helped by years he had good numbers? It’s relevant if we’re treating him as a starting pitcher, yet including a bunch of innings where all he had to do for that game was throw gas at (hopefully) only three guys. Removing the four years that I can easily see in BBRef that he closed (2001-2004), it changes his career stats to: IP: 3473 to 3187.2 H: 3074 to 2839 BB: 1010 to 955 Which changes his career WHIP from 1.176 to 1.190, and career ERA from 3.33 to 3.39. Greater minds than mine can figure out what that did to his ERA+. The sum of WAR for those year was 7.5, removing them lowers his career WAR to 59.0 After looking at the changes, I don’t think it makes that much of a difference. ---
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/193 "2013-12-30T23:14:48Z")
But Smoltz is being evaluated as a _baseball player_, not as a starting pitcher. If he was a crappy closer the numbers would have negatively affected him. But he wasn’t. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2013, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/194 "2013-12-31T00:44:12Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > After looking at the changes, I don’t think it makes that much of a difference. I don’t understand why the changes should be considered at all. He actually pitched those four years as a relief pitcher, and pitched well, and helped his team win. Those innings count. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2013, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/195 "2013-12-31T01:14:07Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I don’t understand why the changes should be considered at all. He actually pitched those four years as a relief pitcher, and pitched well, and helped his team win. Those innings count. Because it’s easier to pitch well as a closer than it is as a starting pitcher. If we evaluate pitchers by stats such as ERA, WHIP, H/9, K/9, etc… a closer is going to have much better numbers than a starting pitcher would. Go compare the above stats for a list of closers vs. starters. The closers are going be heads and tails better than the starters. Much fewer innings pitched, of course, and that shows up in their respective WARs. Which is why the thought of Gagne going to the Hall is such a howler. Despite Gagne being essentially unhittable by anybody for about a year and a half. This would matter if Smoltz had more than the ~6.5% of his career innings pitching relief that he has. Since he doesn’t, I think I’ve shown that the stat inflation he had from pitching relief is essentially negligible. Really, the problem is that guys like Kevin Brown and Rick Reuschel aren’t in the Hall, not that Smoltz is going to get in. But that’s what we have a Veterans’ Committee for. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2013, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/196 "2013-12-31T04:41:33Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Because it’s easier to pitch well as a closer than it is as a starting pitcher. I agree that that may be true, but it is also true that in those four years Smoltz legitimately helped his team win ballgames and so he must be given due credit for that. > [@](#): > > If we evaluate pitchers by stats such as ERA, WHIP, H/9, K/9, etc… a closer is going to have much better numbers than a starting pitcher would. Go compare the above stats for a list of closers vs. starters. The closers are going be heads and tails better than the starters. > > Much fewer innings pitched, of course, and that shows up in their respective WARs. Which is why the thought of Gagne going to the Hall is such a howler. Despite Gagne being essentially unhittable by anybody for about a year and a half. But in your last sentence you explain why Gagne REALLY isn’t going to the Hall of Fame. It has nothing at all to do with it being “easier” to be a relief pitcher. He’s not going to the Hall of Fame because he was only a great pitcher for two years. Eric Gagne isn’t going to the Hall of Fame for exactly the same reason Lefty O’Doul isn’t in the Hall of Fame. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2013, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/197 "2013-12-31T13:53:22Z")
Isn’t it just as hard to be _one of the best_ relievers in the game as it is to be one of the best starters? Another reason Gagne isn’t going in is that he was simply horrible after his surgery, and his post-Dodgers teams gave him too much opportunity for a comeback. A player’s last few years do tend to affect memories of him disproportionately, so guys who hung on too long seem to get penalized for it come voting time. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2013, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/198 "2013-12-31T14:16:07Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Isn’t it just as hard to be _one of the best_ relievers in the game as it is to be one of the best starters? No. Just like it isn’t as easy to be the best defensive shortstop than it is to be the best defensive first baseman. Cause if you are good at both, you are going to play short. It is easier to throw one inning at a time than it is to throw seven. And since 7 innings is so much more valuable than one, the people who can do both are almost always going to be a starter. A dominant closer is maybe equivilant to a midrotation starter. Move a guy to the bullpen and his era will instantly improve. I forget the numbers, but I think it about half a run on average. Of course there is a large degree of variance in this. Overall, I find the early ballot returns promising. Maddux should approach record vote totals. Glavine should sail in with ease as well, which is a little surprising given the strength of the ballot. If Thomas and Biggio get in too, we might be able to start dealing with this lockjam. I’m also happy to see that Kent and Mussina are at least getting enough support to stay comfortably on the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![Bellhorn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@Bellhorn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bellhorn)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2013, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/199 "2013-12-31T17:01:26Z")
Willhelm, Gossage, Sutter, Fingers and, in part, Eckersly are the only relievers in the Hall of Fame, and they’re lucky they preceded the era of Mariano Rivera. Five years from now, Rivera has a good chance to beat Tom Seaver’s record of highest percentage of the BBWA voters. Rivera’s career numbers (205 ERA+, 56.6 WAR) exceed any other closer by such a huge margin, that it will set the bar so high, I doubt if any closer will make the HOF for another 50 years. (Trevor Hoffman is up in a couple of years, and I’ll doubt he’ll ever get about 30% of the vote, but pre Mariano, his career saves would have made him a viable candidate.) I do believe, however, that a great closer gets undervalued by WAR. Even Rivera’s career WAR puts him just ahead of Johnny Damon and just behind of Dave Stieb. I understand the sabermetric argument that the ninth inning is just 3 outs of _slightly_ higher leverage, but almost every manager seems to disagree. 15 years ago, I thought we’d see the concept of bullpen-by-committee by now, but it seems like we’re further away from that then ever. I’m assuming that there is something to the fact that a dominant closer helps stabilize the rest of the roles in a bullpen. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2013, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859/200 "2013-12-31T17:11:18Z")
Really, 30%? I think Hoffman walks in. I think even Billy Wagner might approach that number. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-mlb-hall-of-fame-ballot/674859.md?page=11)