# 2014 NFL Draft **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [May 4, 2014, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634 "2014-05-04T13:58:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/301 "2014-05-09T05:07:48Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > Ok, so the Browns drafted Bo Callahan, uh, Johnny Manziel and many of their fans are giddy like children on Christmas Eve, and as excited and hopeful as if they just finished watching _Draft Day_. But the Browns still suck. They could have drafted Peyton Luck and they’d still suck. They do suck a bit less, I’ll allow. I’m a huge Bengals fan and I’m not sure about this assessment. The Browns have slowly and inexorably been getting better over the last several years. They have a decent o-line, very good wideouts and a very good defense. While I might talk shit about them, come game day I certainly wouldn’t overlook them. QB play is going to be a huge deal for them, so it remains to be seen how well they will do, as running through the amount of coaches and QB’s like they have has definitely stuck them in neutral in many respects, but by and large they always come to play. Don’t underestimate that defense, especially now. I expect they will draft more playmakers on that side of the ball in the next couple days too. They might _suck_, but they don’t suck like…_Jaguars suck_. Not anymore. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/302 "2014-05-09T05:11:15Z")
> [@Ennui](#): > > Manziel is the third QB the Browns have taken with the 22nd pick in the 1st round. Quinn, Weeden, now **Johny**. I hope the third times a charm. That’s two “n’s” to you, **Enui**. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/303 "2014-05-09T05:24:58Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > Ok, so the Browns drafted Bo Callahan, uh, Johnny Manziel and many of their fans are giddy like children on Christmas Eve, and as excited and hopeful as if they just finished watching _Draft Day_. But the Browns still suck. They could have drafted Peyton Luck and they’d still suck. They do suck a bit less, I’ll allow. Just as some sort of intrinsic property? You could load the team with talent and solve all their problems, and they’d still suck? ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/304 "2014-05-09T06:14:42Z")
So what do we think of the Browns in the first round altogether? Moving 3 times, snagging the best CB at 8 (pretty critical to Pettine’s defense), the most controversial player in the draft at 22, and a first rounder that’s likely to be in the top half of the round next year. I’d be feeling pretty good about all of it with Bridgewater. Not sure what to think with Manziel. Exciting for a little bit anyway. A pretty remarkable mover and shaker sort of round for a rookie GM. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/305 "2014-05-09T06:35:58Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > I’m a huge Bengals fan and I’m not sure about this assessment. The Browns have slowly and inexorably been getting better over the last several years. They have a decent o-line, very good wideouts and a very good defense. I know. It was just a lighthearted barb. They are improving, but, eventually they’re going to have to win more than 5 games to actually demonstrate progress. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/306 "2014-05-09T06:37:50Z")
I actually agree with Beef on paper. It’s absolutely worth the price and if you hit on a QB you can throw the expected value out the window because hitting on a QB means you win the draft no matter what happens with the rest of the picks. The catch is that QBs aren’t lottery tickets, they are people and having two QBs in camp probably undermines the likelihood of both of their development. QBs need reps and if you have two the process of sorting out which is your guy means that they both suffer in the near term. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/307 "2014-05-09T07:04:51Z")
Not sure how I feel about the Fuller pick yet, but I’m still hoping the Bears get Pierre Desir on day two. Dream scenario is Hageman falling to us on the second and Desir in the third. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/308 "2014-05-09T08:40:06Z")
**Omni** ’s point is a good one: it’s harder to develop two QBs at a time than just one. There are abstract psychological concerns (“looking over my shoulder”), and also the simple logistical problem of how to get them both the practice reps and the playing time they need to grow. Not impossible, but drafting two of them makes it harder for each. Also, the hypothetical math of the situation is against you. One could say colloquially, “Hey, we drafted two QBs, we doubled our chance to get a good one!” But, of course, you didn’t. Assume for simplicity’s sake that we’re not worried about degrees; i.e., a guy develops into an above average QB, which is what we’re after, or he doesn’t. Also assume that the QB you draft at #22 is slightly more likely to succeed than the one you draft at #35. [These are the Quarterbacks drafted between the 15th and 42nd overall picks from 1980-2010](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1980&year_max=2010&type=&round_min=1&round_max=30&slot_min=15&slot_max=42&league_id=&team_id=&pos=QB&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all). I’m going to say that only 12 of 34 were what we’d call a success (Joe Flacco and Chad Pennington are in, Jason Campbell is out). That’s 35%. (Since 1990 it’s been just 27%; ouch.) Maybe we feel that this is a deep draft and our guys this year, Manziel and Bridgewater, are actually better than the typical QB from this cohort. Let’s assume that Manziel has a 45% chance to succeed, and Bridgewater has a 40% chance. There’s a 33% chance that they both crap out. There’s an 18% chance that they both succeed, but that second success doesn’t really help you very much: it improves his trade value a little and puts a quality backup on your depth chart, but basically getting the starting QB is all that matters (which is why we decided to forgo a good prospect at another position in the first place). That leaves a 67% chance that at least one of the QBs will succeed. That’s pretty good, but you were already at 45% after Manziel. Bridgewater, who came with a very high opportunity cost, therefore effectively has only a 22% chance to succeed _for you_. The second QB in this scenario is only half as valuable as the first. And that’s assuming that \*\*Omni \*\*& I are wrong about the possibility of two QBs getting in the way of each others development. If 10% of each QB’s good outcomes are soured by the unusual situation, you’re down to a 62% chance to land one or more successes, etc. Obviously there’s some faux-precision in the math here, in the face of many uncertainties and complicating factors. Probably I should’ve just saved everyone some time and said, “Hey, don’t forget about diminishing returns.” But it was fun looking at the draft history. \*\*\* As an aside, once you get past its first ten picks the 2nd Round is a [total wasteland](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1980&year_max=2013&type=&round_min=1&round_max=30&slot_min=43&slot_max=64&league_id=&team_id=&pos=QB&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all) when it comes to QBs. Jeff Hostetler and Kordell Stewart are easily the _best_ of the bunch (out of 25 since 1980). You actually get a higher proportion success stories from the 3rd or 4th Round then from the mid-late 2nd. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/309 "2014-05-09T08:46:31Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > The catch is that QBs aren’t lottery tickets, they are people and having two QBs in camp probably undermines the likelihood of both of their development. QBs need reps and if you have two the process of sorting out which is your guy means that they both suffer in the near term. Exactly right. Players don’t just develop by being on the roster; they develop by getting practice and game reps, and every minute you spend developing one is time you aren’t developing the other.’ It might be possible to do it if they are both premium prospects and you trade one away after a one-year competition, as the Cowboys did with Aikman and Walsh. But next year projects to be a great QB class … nobody will be giving much for a year-used Bridgewater. And sorry, Beef, a smart team doesn’t take the anguish of the fans into consideration. If Cleveland goes 0-16 for five straight years a) a lot of people would still come to the games (Remember the last line of the factory of sadness video?) and b) howevermany people did leave would come right back as soon as the team looked like was gonna be a winner. You make the moves you think will build a winner, period. If you take the fans into consideration, you end up doing things like drafting an exciting big name over the boring but more functional guy. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/310 "2014-05-09T09:03:00Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Mike Mayock keeps suggesting Philly is a logical landing spot for Manziel. Are you fucking crazy? Did you _watch_ Foles last year? > > ETA: the consensus of [everyone](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft). Us Central Floridians wanted him to fall a bit so he could end up somewhere where there wouldn’t be immediate pressure. Well, according to your link, he wasn’t even the top QB with the mock draft-niks. Manziel was picked more times than Bortles in the top 10, and in fact, only one person has Bortles drafted as high as 11. He wasn’t even picked once in the top 10. How is that “everyone”? Let’s face it. No one was the consensus number 1 QB. Bortles popped up out of virtually nowhere at the end of the season. I remember a guy named Ryan Leaf that was about the same size and who was touted as a can’t miss, who did and badly. If Bortles is a stud, great, but no way was he the consensus of “everyone”. He could be another Heath Shuler. Or Big Ben. Or anywhere in between. But Jacksonville does not exactly have a great team, so if he starts, he will be pummeled for a while. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/311 "2014-05-09T09:21:49Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > There it is. **SenorBeef** , start typing, stop raping. Get the boots off. I hope you meant “rapping”. > [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Hoyer is still the best QB on the Browns roster. I agree with this. If he is healthy. But hey, they have Vince Young now too! > [@Hamlet](#): > > Better yet, drafting a QB the year before. I really dislike the tendency to start rookie QB’s rather than letting them learn the position. Brees sat for a year. Brady sat for year. Rodgers sat for 3. The fact that Peyton Manning started year one seems to indicate everyone should, but he’s Peyton fucking Manning. More than any other position in the NFL, QB’s need to be developed, and I don’t think the best way to do that is to throw them into the games right away. Not true at all. A number of QB’s start day one or a few games into season one. Aikman, Eli, Matt Ryan, Big Ben, the league is full of rookie starters. Didn’t Stafford and Bradford both start right away? > [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Tom Brady in the 7th is the most prescient pick of all time! That would be the 6th round (yeah, I know). ---
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/312 "2014-05-09T11:25:09Z")
I stayed up for the Panthers’ pick and immediately went to bed. I understand why they took Benjamin. Cam needs weapons. Cam tends to throw high, so a big receiver was a good call. I just think there were players on the board I liked better at that spot. I think I would have gone Bitonio there. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/313 "2014-05-09T13:06:39Z")
The alternative was probably trading the pick and signing another middling running back for $40 million. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/314 "2014-05-09T14:32:30Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I’ve only watched Auburn (Bad Game) and Texas A & M (Average), and I’m not overly impressed. He’s extremely versatile, relatively solid, but I haven’t seen anything special about him at all. More tape may help, but I tend to agree with the Meh. Watched a couple more games of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and I feel a little bit better about him. He’s got some nice coverage skills, and he seems to be quite good at dissecting plays and being where he should. He’s not aggressive, and not a hitter, but much more of a last line of defense guy. Watching those tapes, I’m impressed by Nick Saban’s defenses, they are well coached and very scheme versatile which works in his benefit. Also, looking at the other players, the only one I’m really sold on who was available was Marqis Lee, so it’s not like I really wanted them to draft someone else. A solid player at a position of great need, I guess I can live with it. I just don’t expect him to be the next Nick Collins. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/315 "2014-05-09T14:36:32Z")
You don’t see WR as a position of need? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/316 "2014-05-09T14:40:23Z")
A couple random thoughts: I love me some Sammy Watkins, but the Bills paid too high a price (first rounder and fifth rounder next year) to move up just 5 spots to get him. I hate that GM’s are so quick to trade future draft picks (especially 1st rounders when your QB is EJ Manuel), and looking at the talent left at the WR position with hindsight, it was way too much. Watkins, as much as I like him, isn’t a first round pick better than Lee or Evans or Cook or Latimer. I’m not a fan of Mike Evans nor Kelvin Benjamin. Size is important, but I don’t want to have to rely on jump balls to move my offense. Neither impresses me with their ability to gain separation, and their route running skills are questionable at best. Blake Bortles to the Jags. _shakes head_ ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/317 "2014-05-09T14:43:20Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > You don’t see WR as a position of need? Yes, but not as bad as safety. I don’t think the Packers can afford both Cobb and Nelson when their contracts are up next year, but I like Boykin, and I like the WR talent still available in this draft. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/318 "2014-05-09T14:44:45Z")
Didn’t Nelson just get a big long term deal? Or was I thinking of James Fucking Jones? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/319 "2014-05-09T14:54:01Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Didn’t Nelson just get a big long term deal? He got a shorter term deal (3 years) during the 2011 season, so he’s only under contract through 2014. He’s great value at roughly $4.2 million a year, but I suspect he’ll want his next contract to be much larger. Cobb is on his rookie deal, which is up next year too, and will be wanting a big payday also. I don’t think they can pay them both what the market will. > [@RNATB](#): > > Or was I thinking of James Fucking Jones? He signed with the Raiders this offseason. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634/320 "2014-05-09T15:02:17Z")
I don’t see why you couldn’t pay both. You’re not really paying anyone on defense except Matthews, or anyone on the offensive line. Nelson can’t expect $10 million a year considering who his quarterback is, and Cobb certainly can’t. On an unrelated note: the more I think about it, the more I think the Eagles goofed by not taking Marquise Lee. On the other hand, that leaves the faintest possibility that the Buccaneers will take him, which would be awesome. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2014-nfl-draft/687634.md?page=17)