# 2015 Belmont Stakes **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 6, 2015, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797 "2015-06-06T15:59:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/1 "2015-06-06T15:59:57Z")
Well, with the Belmont a few hours away, I thought I’d start the thread. I’m young enough that there’s never been a Triple Crown won in my life, so I’m pulling for American Pharoah. Heck, NYRA had a promotion that if you were one of the first 1,000 to bet online yesterday for a win on American Pharoah and he does win, you get a win ticket. So we’ll see if I got a bet down fast enough if he does win. Other than that, I’m thinking Frammento might have a chance at the upset. Longest shot on the board (and 11th at the Kentucky Derby) but there have been two other Belmont upsets to spoil the Triple Crown from Nick Zito in the past. Plus, he didn’t run the Preakness so he might have fresher legs. So I’ve placed an exacta on a Frammento upset over American Pharoah. Anyone else have any thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Enlightening\_Meditation](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ecc23a/32.png) [@Enlightening\_Meditation](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enlightening_Meditation)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/2 "2015-06-06T18:05:57Z")
Sure, I have thoughts about the Belmont Stakes. The recent chatter about American Pharoah among media and fans (I listen to Kentucky based talk radio sometimes) reminds me of the hype surrounding Smarty Jones, Big Brown, California Chrome, and War Emblem among others who won the KY Derby and Preakness Stakes and then failed to win the Belmont Stakes. Some of them had setbacks (e.g. Chrome getting stepped on near the starting gate, Big Brown having a loose shoe, and I’ll Have Another being scratched from the race due to injury) at Belmont so it’s impossible to know if any of them would have won under ideal circumstances. It is extremely difficult for a horse to win at the longer Belmont distance against fresher horses of top competition. American Pharoah has a chance to win but his odds of winning are much worse than 3-to-5 or whatever his actual betting odds will be. I will be rooting against this horse as I will be putting my money on others: exacta box of Keen Ice, Frammento, and Tale of Verve. Good luck. The Frammento-American Pharoah exacta bet could be a winner. I usually box my exacta bets but the opposite order with Pharoah winning likely wouldn’t pay much. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/3 "2015-06-06T18:09:26Z")
given that horse racing needs publicity I’m surprised that by now they have not rigged a Belmont to have a triple crown winner. and yes, I know this race is harder to win due to the length. I guess they figure it’s too hard to rig it without someone letting the story out. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/4 "2015-06-06T22:56:58Z")
“Holy shit!” ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/5 "2015-06-06T22:57:45Z")
And we have a Triple Crown! Just missed the trifecta. Oh well. I hit two earlier today on racing in the UK. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/6 "2015-06-06T23:18:22Z")
Wire to wire. What a horse!! I am so happy for Victor Espinoza. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/7 "2015-06-06T23:34:47Z")
Outstanding! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/8 "2015-06-06T23:37:52Z")
That was amazing! ---
**Author:** ![peedin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peedin/32/14095_2.png) [@peedin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peedin)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/9 "2015-06-06T23:39:36Z")
I didn’t think,it would happen because of the sheer odds of it NOT happening for all the others. Tears were running down my face when he crossed the wire. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2015, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/10 "2015-06-06T23:43:43Z")
I remember where I was 37 years ago. I was ten years old and we watched Alydar & Affirmed nose to nose down the wire. It was the most thrilling thing I’d ever seen. I’ve never missed a triple crown since. I’m going to be here again next year, too. American Pharoah. I have to keep stopping to misspell his name. He looked so smooth and relaxed around the first turn. He started to work a little down the backstretch. I kept waiting for someone to step up - I’ve been disapointed so many times. Around the turn and Pharoah opened up and Frosted finally found room to run but he was all out of gas. I had Dortmund in the Derby, based on his Santa Anita win. I didn’t really warm up to Pharaoh until he won the Preakness in a thunderstorm. American Pharoah. Triple Crown. It was worth the wait. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/11 "2015-06-07T01:45:59Z")
> [@peedin](#): > > I didn’t think,it would happen because of the sheer odds of it NOT happening for all the others. Tears were running down my face when he crossed the wire. Me too. It was like when the Red Sox won the series after all those years. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/12 "2015-06-07T01:58:54Z")
Here’s the [video](http://www.sbnation.com/2015/6/6/8739893/belmont-stakes-2015-video-replay-american-pharoah). It’ll give you chills. That horse didn’t appear to be tiring at all. Simply incredible. ---
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/13 "2015-06-07T05:49:43Z")
Agreed. Not only does listening to the call over and over again give you the chills, but I saw it live on TV and it was a truly surreal moment because it was something was happening we never thought we would ever see again. The crowd would just not stop going absolutely crazy, I cant imagine what it was to be there in person. An incredible moment for horse racing, sports in general, and what a truly amazing horse to pull this off by such a margin especially against fresh horses. ---
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/14 "2015-06-07T05:53:52Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > given that horse racing needs publicity I’m surprised that by now they have not rigged a Belmont to have a triple crown winner. and yes, I know this race is harder to win due to the length. > > I guess they figure it’s too hard to rig it without someone letting the story out. You could rigged that racer all you wanted, Pharaoh was head and shoulders so better than the other horses it wouldn’t be necessary. ---
**Author:** ![SeaDragonTattoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@SeaDragonTattoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeaDragonTattoo)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/15 "2015-06-07T06:47:48Z")
I was at work when the race happened. Luckily, it was super slow so a bunch of us were able to watch on the big screen in the treatment room. I’m glad I got to watch it live. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/16 "2015-06-07T07:39:10Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > “Holy shit!” My sentiments exactly. ---
**Author:** ![DKW](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dkw/32/3118_2.png) [@DKW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DKW)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/17 "2015-06-07T08:19:57Z")
Just to put in in perspective, here’s a little gem from last year: > [@With the Triple Crown try coming up - Ask the Horse Racing Fan](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-the-triple-crown-try-coming-up-ask-the-horse-racing-fan/690040/33): > > 1979 - Spectacular Bid, 3rd - He got a safety pin caught in his hoof the morning of the Belmont, plus his jockey moved him to challenge a hopeless longshot early. Probably the best horse to win the first two and lose the Belmont; he won all 9 races the following year and set several track records in doing so. > 1981 - Pleasant Colony, 3rd - Improved a ton in the race before the Derby and appeared to be knocked out by the 3 huge efforts going into the Belmont. > 1987 - Alysheba, 4th - Uncharacteristically showed speed and tired; the winner had finished a close 2nd in the first two legs so wasn’t a surprise; another horse who was dominant the next year. > 1989 - Sunday Silence, 2nd - Had equally-talented archrival, Easy Goer, who loved racing at Belmont and ran the second-fastest Belmont ever that day. Had either of these two horses not had to face each other, they probably would have both won Triple Crowns. > 1997- Silver Charm, 2nd - Happened to win the first two legs against a couple of closely matched rivals, and just got run down late by one of them here. > 1998 - Real Quiet, 2nd - Just got beaten a nose by equally-talented rival who had finished second in the first two legs after opening up a lead coming out of the turn. By the way, if California Chrome loses tomorrow, I think this is the most likely scenario. > 1999 - Charismatic, 3rd - Like Pleasant Colony, improved a ton 1 race before the Derby, and was overused in his 3 straight big efforts. Broke a leg very late in the race; finished anyway but was saved when his jockey jumped off just past the finish. > 2002 - War Emblem, 8th? - Pure frontrunner who stumbled out of the gate and was immediately taken out of his game. There are quite a few horses with a front-running running style who quit when unable to reach the lead. > 2003 - Funny Cide, 3rd - Was too keen for the race; had a very fast workout that week and tried to lead all the way; beaten by talented rivals, including the Derby favorite who had finished 2nd in that race. > 2004 - Smarty Jones, 2nd - Beaten by race tactics. Hounded by two rivals in the early portions of the race and ran way too fast in the middle part of the race as a result; still opened a lead coming out of the turn but couldn’t hold off a fresh challenger who had stayed out of the early fray. > 2008 - Big Brown, eased out of the race - Who knows? Take your pick of a) loosened a shoe on the first turn; b) went nuts in the “detention barn” where stakes horses must wait during the day while they are watched; or c) did not receive his monthly dose of (then-legal) steroids for the first time. > 2012 - I’ll Have Another, scratched - Scratched the day before the Belmont (and retired) with a flareup of a chronic leg injury. And then, of course, California Chrome finished 4th. The Triple Crown is like a cycle in baseball, a long winning streak in sumo, or retiring an undefeated champion in boxing. An accomplishment that, while certainly challenging, is far from impossible and has had a lot of contenders go for it, but there’s ALWAYS. SOMETHING. that keeps it from happening. And he was pulling away at the end. This just isn’t supposed to happen. Supreme achievements have to be incredibly hard-fought and won by inches, if not microns. Brett Favre didn’t coast to a career passing mark. The Red Sox weren’t spoonfed four elimination wins in the 2004 ALCS. So…all right. Susan Lucci won an Emmy, Shaquille O’Neal won at every level except only college, the Curse got stomped into a bloody paste, Chinese Democracy and Duke Nukem Forever saw the light of day…today another one bites the dust. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/18 "2015-06-07T11:40:38Z")
Great post, there, DKW. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/19 "2015-06-07T12:51:29Z")
I hope American Pharoah isn’t done. I’d love to see him race the Travers up at Saratoga and the Breeders Cup. It’d be even better to see him stick around a few more years to race things like the Whitney in 2016 and other big stakes races. I understand from a business standpoint if the owners decide that they’ll make more in stud fees than they ever could in racing. Safer, too. But it’d still be a shame and another reminder of the problems horse racing has these days. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2015, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797/20 "2015-06-07T14:04:36Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > “Holy shit!” > [@Larry\_Borgia](#): > > My sentiments exactly. I watched it live, those were actually Victor Espinoza’s sentiments, captured near an open mic after the win. 😃 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2015-belmont-stakes/721797.md?page=2)