The last 3 of today’s stage was crazy. It’s a truly terrifying and amazing thing to watch.
:smack:
Fucking Cavendish. I will never doubt Jenzi again. lol.
I actually held my breath on that last round about. Fuhhhh…ck.
Two interesting things in what I thought would be a relatively unremarkable stage:
- Sagan in green
- Nibali dropped on the last climb
So yeah… fun.
So who will take the team time trial?
I think Sky. Feels like they’ve been holding a bit back up to now.
There’s a possibility that Sagan could actually be in yellow, green, and white simultaneously after tomorrow, if Tinkoff Saxo beat Sky by 12’ or more and don’t give up anything to BMC. Most predictions I’ve seen have BMC winning the TTT and hence TJ the favourite for yellow, however. Pity that Etixx doesn’t have Tony for the stage.
I wouldn’t draw any firm conclusions about Nibali just yet. An off day just two days after he hit the deck pretty hard is hardly a shock. Course, he could be in bad form and start losing minutes when they enter the Pyrenees, too.
So BMC win, but by less than a second over Sky so Froome retains the lead. I’d rate Quintana the rider who has to be most pleased with the TTT, losing only 3 seconds in the overall standings. Bertie and Nibbles the day’s losers, shipping 27 and 34 seconds in the GC respectively.
Nibali’s chances of defending his title are now looking somewhat bleak. He’s last amongst the big four, and on paper the least likely to scamper away from the others on the toughest climbs. He really needed it to be raining on the cobbles stage or something. Froome is sitting pretty with a minute on everyone but Teejay. His race to lose at this stage, but a single bad day could change that. Contador can’t be ruled out yet, but over the next week we’ll find out if his Giro win took too much out of his legs. Quintana has survived the first week within shouting distance, and will now have to live up to his billing as a dominating climber to contest for the win.
Teejay’s clearly the class of the rest of the field, and I’d tag him as a very likely podium spot in Paris at this point. At least one or two of the big four will blow up at some point in the mountains trying to win the overall, and Teejay will stay in his limits looking for a high placing rather than the win.
I’m counting Contador and Nibali out at this point. This is just not their race. A good day for them will be a day they don’t lose more time.
As for Teejay… I’m not so sure he can hang with Froome and Port and Quintana. I’m not optimistic about his podium chances. I also think (hope!) Valverde will show everybody that he still is a force to be reconned with.
Teejay doesn’t have to hang with Froome and Quintana to get on the podium, just with Contador and Nibali. Unless Froome utterly dominates the rest of the race, Port is likely to lose a bunch of time at some point after blowing himself up for his teammate.
That said, I don’t think we can really say anything definitive about anyone’s form until we’ve got a full mountain stage in the books. Tuesday might be interesting, but not very telling. Wednesday we will have an idea who is not going to win.
Actually Porte’s already taken a rest day, apparently. He’s 44 minutes down. Geraint Thomas is the only Sky domestique up the standings, and he won’t be there at the end.
The riders within 5 minutes who have some prospect of staying in touch with the front in the mountains:
0:12 Tejay Van Garderen
1:03 Alberto Contador
1:18 Rigoberto Uran
1:50 Alejandro Valverde
1:59 Nairo Quintana
2:22 Vincenzo Nibali
2:43 Warren Barguil
2:56 Bauke Mollema
3:30 Jean-Cristophe Peraud
3:52 Joaquin Rodriguez
4:17 Andrew Talansky
4:38 Roman Bardet
To stay on the podium, TJ can only allow one of those guys to get past him. Not easy, but possible.
You forgot Gesink (better climber then Mollema).
Let’s not forget the GC only really starts this tuesday (with a handful of mountain top finishes). If there are going to be attacks, minutes could be thrown around. Although I’m starting to fear that the mountain stages will consist of the Sky train riding at speed and others just trying to cling on.
Is there good free video highlights online? I don’t need a live feed and in fact a compressed summary of the last day would do just fine.
Thanks!
Brian
I didn’t forget Gesink so much as dismiss his chances of staying in touch with the leaders. 
Maybe I’m being overly harsh; we can put him in there if you like. Costa and Pinot are also lurking in the weeds between 5 and 10 minutes back, but Pinot’s Tour is apparently under some sort of curse.
At least some of the riders on that list are going to lose some time and decide to go hunting for stages or polka dots. I expect J-Rod at least is already targeting polka dots rather than GC, actually. I maintain that TJ has a pretty clear path to a podium finish by riding to limit losses and waiting for 2 of the big 4 to blow up trying to win.
All speculation at the moment, though.
I agree that Porte has no chance at the podium. It’s just that he’s so good at pulling Froome up the mountains. I recall a stage or two in the past where he actually dropped Froome.
Maybe Teejay will achieve a podium finish. I think he’s got his work cut out for him.
Froome smashed it there - no one could live with him. You’re all fucking slow and I’m the boss, as bigringriding would put it.
Hard to see any of the others coming back from that, although I recall in 2013 him and Porte laid down the law early doors in the mountains, and then next day Porte blew up and Froome just barely survived with the leaders. I doubt we’ll see a repeat, but the other teams have to show tomorrow or that’s it.
Good call on Gesink, **polar bear **- he rode great today. Now 1 minute 30 secs off the podium, so he’s put himself in with a shout.
Second place normally wins The Tour. Looks like it might happen again this year.
Anyone follow the riders on strava? Gesink’s ride today is here (not sure if you need to be a member to see it);
Don’t know if the power numbers are real or strava estimates - 409 W up the mountain today.
I take it all back about Gesink.
Now he’s sure to lose 10 minutes today:).
I think you can stick a fork in Tejay. Same for the rest of the usual contenders whose name doesn’t rhyme with broom.
Is there a more expressive rider in the tour than Thomas Voekler?
Couldn’t watch the entire stage today but got up early to see the start of it. By the third climb there were what… 6 groups including the peleton, with a 13 minute split from head to tail?
Eager to find out how it all got sorted by the end.