# 2016 = 2008 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 26, 2016, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230 "2016-01-26T03:41:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Henga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Henga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henga)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/1 "2016-01-26T03:41:30Z")
In 2008 the Republicans assumed up until the Democrat Convention that their opponent would be Hilary Clinton. They were wrong and so they had no plan for defeating Obama. In 2012 the Republicans assumed that the economy was so bad that any Republican could beat Obama. Again they were wrong even though Obama achieved the rare feat of winning re-election with a smaller popular vote total (because his stance on gay marriage reduced the black voter turnout). So what happens in 2016 when Hilary Clinton again isn’t the Democrat nominee? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/2 "2016-01-26T03:43:05Z")
> [@Henga](#): > > In 2008 the Republicans assumed up until the Democrat Convention that their opponent would be Hilary Clinton. They were wrong and so they had no plan for defeating Obama. > > In 2012 the Republicans assumed that the economy was so bad that any Republican could beat Obama. Again they were wrong even though Obama achieved the rare feat of winning re-election with a smaller popular vote total (because his stance on gay marriage reduced the black voter turnout). > > So what happens in 2016 when Hilary Clinton again isn’t the Democrat nominee? Obama vs. Clinton is very different than Sanders vs. Clinton. Obama had far more advantage going for him. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/3 "2016-01-26T03:51:53Z")
In what universe won’t Clinton be the Democratic nominee? ---
**Author:** ![Henga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Henga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henga)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/4 "2016-01-26T03:55:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Obama vs. Clinton is very different than Sanders vs. Clinton. Obama had far more advantage going for him. When compared to Sanders now, but not when compared to Clinton in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Henga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Henga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henga)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/5 "2016-01-26T03:56:34Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > In what universe won’t Clinton be the Democratic nominee? That’s what the Republicans were asking in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/6 "2016-01-26T04:17:34Z")
> [@Henga](#): > > In 2008 the Republicans assumed up until the Democrat Convention that their opponent would be Hilary Clinton. No, they didn’t. Obama had it wrapped up long before the convention. Most folks knew it was over in April, but absolutely over by June. The convention was held in August. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/7 "2016-01-26T04:21:27Z")
> [@Henga](#): > > In 2008 the Republicans assumed up until the Democrat Convention that their opponent would be Hilary Clinton. They were wrong and so they had no plan for defeating Obama. > > In 2012 the Republicans assumed that the economy was so bad that any Republican could beat Obama. Again they were wrong even though Obama achieved the rare feat of winning re-election with a smaller popular vote total (because his stance on gay marriage reduced the black voter turnout). > > So what happens in 2016 when Hilary Clinton again isn’t the Democrat nominee? Neither of these assertion are true. Obama secured the nomination nearly three months before the August 25th Democratic convention, with HRC conceding on June 7th. For several months prior to that it was obvious that Obama might win. The Republicans could have been given a year to formulate a plan and they still would have lost. In 2008, black Americans accounted for 13% of the vote. In 2012, the percentage was again 13%. The idea of a black voter backlash against Obama’s stance on gay rights is a myth. ---
**Author:** ![Henga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Henga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henga)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/8 "2016-01-26T05:08:01Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > No, they didn’t. Obama had it wrapped up long before the convention. Most folks knew it was over in April, but absolutely over by June. The convention was held in August. Not exactly. Hilary received more primary votes than Obama did and Obama had to promise to pay off her campaign debt to keep her from making a floor fight to keep him from being nominated. By the end of June every state had had its caucus or primary, so of course everybody knew by then how many delegates each candidate would have at the convention. The problem for the Republicans was that June came and the Republicans still had no plan on how to campaign against Obama, and couldn’t come up with one fast enough to keep him from winning the General election. ---
**Author:** ![Henga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Henga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henga)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/9 "2016-01-26T05:22:35Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > Neither of these assertion are true. > > Obama secured the nomination nearly three months before the August 25th Democratic convention, with HRC conceding on June 7th. In the 2008 primaries Obama won only 168.5 delegates more than the majority he needed to win the nomination. This was with the Florida and Michigan delegations being penalized for holding their primaries early. Hilary won both of those states. Had she made a successful floor fight for these states’ other delegates she likely would have won the nomination. > [@](#): > > In 2008, black Americans accounted for 13% of the vote. In 2012, the percentage was again 13%. The idea of a black voter backlash against Obama’s stance on gay rights is a myth. The percentage turnout isn’t the issue I am talking about. Obama’s total vote count was less in 2012 than it had been in 2008, and the difference has been attributed to socially conservative black Christians refusing to vote for him as they had done in 2008. But, none of this is the issue I raised. The Republicans spent so much time running against Hilary that when she didn’t get the nomination the Republicans didn’t know how to run against Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/10 "2016-01-26T05:28:56Z")
In 2008, Hillary never broke 50% in the Democratic polling and in January 2008, Obama was always within 10 points of her. After Edwards dropped out, most of his supporters gravitated towards Obama. Obama had pluralities in Feb 2008 and beyond. The idea that the Republicans were caught flat-footed in June 2008 is ludicrous. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic\_presidential\_nomination-191.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html) Contrast with national polling in 2015-2016. Hillary has always been above 40% and usually been above 50%. In January, Sanders has typically been over 10 percentage points away from Hillary. Latest polls show Hillary above 50%. Sanders will win New Hampshire and he might even win Iowa. But he still has a long road ahead of him. Very different from 2008. The OP is engaging in wishful thinking. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016\_democratic\_presidential\_nomination-3824.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/11 "2016-01-26T05:29:11Z")
> [@Henga](#): > > Not exactly. Hilary received more primary votes than Obama did and Obama had to promise to pay off her campaign debt to keep her from making a floor fight to keep him from being nominated. > > By the end of June every state had had its caucus or primary, so of course everybody knew by then how many delegates each candidate would have at the convention. The problem for the Republicans was that June came and the Republicans still had no plan on how to campaign against Obama, and couldn’t come up with one fast enough to keep him from winning the General election. That’s an odd way to admit your error. From wikipedia: > [@](#): > > On June 3, the day of the final primaries in South Dakota and Montana, Obama rolled out about sixty superdelegate endorsements. Those endorsements, together with the pledged delegates awarded in the final primaries, put him well over the “magic number” of 2,117 delegate votes necessary for a majority at the Democratic National Convention. By early in the evening, all major news organizations had announced that Obama had clinched the Democratic nomination, and Obama claimed the status of presumptive nominee in a speech in St. Paul, Minnesota. Clinton did not concede the nomination in her election night speech, saying that she would be “making no decisions tonight”.[121] On the morning of June 5, Clinton posted on her website an open letter to her supporters, which she also sent by e-mail that day. It announced that on Saturday (June 7) Clinton would endorse Obama’s candidacy. During a well received concession speech in Washington DC on Saturday June 7 Clinton endorsed Obama in the following terms: “The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish the goals for which we stand is to take our energy, our passion, our strength, and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama, the next president of the United States. Today, as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him on the victory he has won and the extraordinary race he has run. I endorse him and throw my full support behind him.” You claimed that: “In 2008 the Republicans assumed up until the Democrat Convention that their opponent would be Hilary Clinton.” You’re not going to do too well around here if you don’t admit obvious, factual errors like that. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/12 "2016-01-26T05:32:35Z")
Interview with Karl Rove in May 8, 2008. He was well aware that McCain could be facing Obama: [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/05/03/DI2008050302514.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/05/03/DI2008050302514.html) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/13 "2016-01-26T07:28:05Z")
But if that makes Rove insightful(and he is on politics, you have to admit), then his backing of Sanders through America Crossroads seems to indicate that he thinks Sanders can win. ---
**Author:** ![Henga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Henga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henga)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/14 "2016-01-26T11:49:59Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > That’s an odd way to admit your error. From wikipedia: > You claimed that: “In 2008 the Republicans assumed up until the Democrat Convention that their opponent would be Hilary Clinton.” > > You’re not going to do too well around here if you don’t admit obvious, factual errors like that. The Republicans were hoping that Hilary would make a floor fight for the rest of the delegates from Michigan and Florida and thus take the nomination from Obama. Also, in previous elections the Democrat nominee was apparent by the end of April and most of the Superdelegates had announced their support long before the primaries were finished. But, in 2008 most of the Superdelegates had remained silent until June because the polling and election results were so close. ---
**Author:** ![Henga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Henga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henga)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/15 "2016-01-26T11:51:36Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Interview with Karl Rove in May 8, 2008. He was well aware that McCain could be facing Obama: [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/05/03/DI2008050302514.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/05/03/DI2008050302514.html) Rove also thought Romney was going to win Ohio on Election Day 2012, so what’s your point? Even Fox News was embarrassed because of him. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/16 "2016-01-26T12:21:25Z")
I think the OP is correct that the Republicans didn’t have a plan for beating Obama. But his thesis fails, because they also didn’t have a plan for beating Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/17 "2016-01-26T12:40:29Z")
> [@Henga](#): > > The Republicans were hoping that Hilary would make a floor fight for the rest of the delegates from Michigan and Florida and thus take the nomination from Obama. Some may have hoped for that, but most understood the realities of politics and knew that Obama was going to be the nominee. In other words, you were wrong. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/18 "2016-01-26T12:58:55Z")
When John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate the election was lost. The Democrats could have nominated Mickey Mouse and it wouldn’t have mattered. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/19 "2016-01-26T13:04:46Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > In what universe won’t Clinton be the Democratic nominee? I’m not sure if she will. But she won’t be the _Democrat_ nominee. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230/20 "2016-01-26T13:38:34Z")
> [@Henga](#): > > In 2008 the Republicans assumed up until the Democrat Convention that their opponent would be Hilary Clinton. They were wrong and so they had no plan for defeating Obama. > > In 2012 the Republicans assumed that the economy was so bad that any Republican could beat Obama. Again they were wrong even though Obama achieved the rare feat of winning re-election with a smaller popular vote total (because his stance on gay marriage reduced the black voter turnout). > > So what happens in 2016 when Hilary Clinton again isn’t the Democrat nominee? There wasn’t one sane Republican who thought Hillary would be the nominee after the primaries were over. Even if they were so deluded (and there is no evidence that they were), they had about three months to hone a message to run against Obama. The economy wasn’t so bad in 2012, certainly it had improved immensely since 2008. I’ll grant that the Republicans made every attempt to sabotage the economy so that they could win in 2012, but they did not succeed. If I might offer a bit of critique of your posting style, you might get a more neutral reaction to your post if you refrain from the perceived pejorative “Democrat nominee”. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-2008/744230.md?page=2)